Ag Decision Maker, September 2014, Vol. 18, no. 11

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Quantifying Uncertainty in Real Time Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations – Phase 2, RB03-013, 2014

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.

You are not alone...making an informed decision about your pregnancy, January 1997

When you are faced with a difficult decision, it’s not unusual to feel confused, frustrated, and perhaps a little frightened because you are not sure what to expect or where to turn for answers. The purpose of this handbook is to assist you in making an informed choice about your pregnancy.

Ag Decision Maker, Novmeber 2014, Vol. 19, no. 1

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Ag Decision Maker, October 2014, Vol. 18, no. 12

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

The evolution, maintenance and adaptive function of genetic colour polymorphism in birds.

The hypothesis that ornaments can honestly signal quality only if their expression is condition-dependent has dominated the study of the evolution and function of colour traits. Much less interest has been devoted to the adaptive function of colour traits for which the expression is not, or is to a low extent, sensitive to body condition and the environment in which individuals live. The aim of the present paper is to review the current theoretical and empirical knowledge of the evolution, maintenance and adaptive function of colour plumage traits for which the expression is mainly under genetic control. The finding that in many bird species the inheritance of colour morphs follows the laws of Mendel indicates that genetic colour polymorphism is frequent. Polymorphism may have evolved or be maintained because each colour morph facilitates the exploitation of alternative ecological niches as suggested by the observation that individuals are not randomly distributed among habitats with respect to coloration. Consistent with the hypothesis that different colour morphs are linked to alternative strategies is the finding that in a majority of species polymorphism is associated with reproductive parameters, and behavioural, life-history and physiological traits. Experimental studies showed that such covariations can have a genetic basis. These observations suggest that colour polymorphism has an adaptive function. Aviary and field experiments demonstrated that colour polymorphism is used as a criterion in mate-choice decisions and dominance interactions confirming the claim that conspecifics assess each other's colour morphs. The factors favouring the evolution and maintenance of genetic variation in coloration are reviewed, but empirical data are virtually lacking to assess their importance. Although current theory predicts that only condition-dependent traits can signal quality, the present review shows that genetically inherited morphs can reveal the same qualities. The study of genetic colour polymorphism will provide important and original insights on the adaptive function of conspicuous traits.

Ag Decision Maker, December 2014, Vol. 19, no. 2

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Ag Decision Maker, January 2015, Vol. 19, no. 3

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Decision-making with distance measures and inducedaggregation operators

[spa] Se presenta un nuevo modelo para la toma de decisiones basado en el uso de medidas de distancia y de operadores de agregación inducidos. Se introduce la distancia media ponderada ordenada inducida (IOWAD). Es un nuevo operador de agregación que extiende el operador OWA a través del uso de distancias y un proceso de reordenación de los argumentos basado en variables de ordenación inducidas. La principal ventaja el operador IOWAD es la posibilidad de utilizar una familia parametrizada de operadores de agregación entre la distancia individual máxima y la mínima. Se estudian algunas de sus principales propiedades y algunos casos particulares. Se desarrolla un ejemplo numérico en un problema de toma de decisiones sobre selección de inversiones. Se observa que la principal ventaja de este modelo en la toma de decisiones es la posibilidad de mostrar una visión más completa del proceso, de forma que el decisor está capacitado para seleccionar la alternativa que está más cerca de sus intereses.

Decision-making with distance measures and inducedaggregation operators

[spa] Se presenta un nuevo modelo para la toma de decisiones basado en el uso de medidas de distancia y de operadores de agregación inducidos. Se introduce la distancia media ponderada ordenada inducida (IOWAD). Es un nuevo operador de agregación que extiende el operador OWA a través del uso de distancias y un proceso de reordenación de los argumentos basado en variables de ordenación inducidas. La principal ventaja el operador IOWAD es la posibilidad de utilizar una familia parametrizada de operadores de agregación entre la distancia individual máxima y la mínima. Se estudian algunas de sus principales propiedades y algunos casos particulares. Se desarrolla un ejemplo numérico en un problema de toma de decisiones sobre selección de inversiones. Se observa que la principal ventaja de este modelo en la toma de decisiones es la posibilidad de mostrar una visión más completa del proceso, de forma que el decisor está capacitado para seleccionar la alternativa que está más cerca de sus intereses.

Decision making techniques with similarity measures and OWA operators

We analyse the use of the ordered weighted average (OWA) in decision-making giving special attention to business and economic decision-making problems. We present several aggregation techniques that are very useful for decision-making such as the Hamming distance, the adequacy coefficient and the index of maximum and minimum level. We suggest a new approach by using immediate weights, that is, by using the weighted average and the OWA operator in the same formulation. We further generalize them by using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means. We also analyse the applicability of the OWA operator in business and economics and we see that we can use it instead of the weighted average. We end the paper with an application in a business multi-person decision-making problem regarding production management

How can continuing professional development better promote shared decision-making? Perspectives from an international collaboration.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Shared decision-making is not widely implemented in healthcare. We aimed to set a research agenda about promoting shared decision-making through continuing professional development. METHODS: Thirty-six participants met for two days. RESULTS: Participants suggested ways to improve an environmental scan that had inventoried 53 shared decision-making training programs from 14 countries. Their proposed research agenda included reaching an international consensus on shared decision-making competencies and creating a framework for accrediting continuing professional development initiatives in shared decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in shared decision-making training programs showcases the need for quality assurance frameworks.

Systematic assessment of factors influencing preferences of crohn's disease patients in selecting an anti-tumor necrosis factor agent (CHOOSE TNF TRIAL).

BACKGROUND: Infliximab (IFX), adalimumab (ADA), and certolizumab pegol (CZP) have similar efficacy in induction and maintenance of clinical remission in Crohn's disease (CD). Given the comparable nature of these drugs, patient preferences may influence the choice of the product. We aimed to identify factors that may contribute to CD patients' decision in selecting one anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) agent over the others. METHODS: A prospective survey was performed among anti-TNF-naïve CD patients. Prior to completion of a questionnaire, patients were provided with a written description of the three anti-TNF agents, focusing on indications, mode of administration, side effects, and scientific evidence of efficacy and safety for each drug. RESULTS: One hundred patients (47 females, mean age 45 ± 16 years, range 19-81) with an ileal, colonic, or ileocolonic (33%, 40%, and 27%, respectively) disease location completed the questionnaire. Based on the information provided, 36% of patients preferred ADA, 28% CZP, and 25% IFX, whereas 11% were undecided. The patients' decision in selecting a specific anti-TNF drug was influenced by the following factors: ease of use (69%), time required for therapy (34%), time interval between application of the drug (31%), scientific evidence for efficacy (19%), and fear of syringes (10%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients preferred anti-TNF medications that were administered by subcutaneous injection rather than by intravenous infusion. Ease of use and time required for therapy were two major factors influencing the patients' selection of a specific anti-TNF drug. Patients' individual preferences should be taken into account when prescribing anti-TNF drugs. (Inflamm Bowel Dis 2012).