Essays on Asset Trade

The overreaching methodology of my Ph.D. thesis is to substitute noise traders with rational traders. I do so by considering liquidity asymmetry between informed trader and uninformed traders. Liquidity asymmetry creates a motive for trade. Under this new setup, I study the impact of asset trade on the real economy, represented by a firm with an investment opportunity, in chapter 1 ("Efficient Asset Trade - A Model with Asymmetric Information and Asymmetric Liquidity Needs"). I find conditions for which asset trade leads to inefficient investment. Chapter 2 ("(In)Efficient Asset Trade and a Rationale for a Tobin Tax") characterizes a tax which can restore efficient investment. In chapter 3, I show that finitely repeated trade, as in Kyle (1985) and Ostrovsky (2012), does not necessarily lead to information revelation if traders are fully rational.

Matrix Designs and Methods for Secure and Efficient Compressed Sensing

The idea of balancing the resources spent in the acquisition and encoding of natural signals strictly to their intrinsic information content has interested nearly a decade of research under the name of compressed sensing. In this doctoral dissertation we develop some extensions and improvements upon this technique's foundations, by modifying the random sensing matrices on which the signals of interest are projected to achieve different objectives. Firstly, we propose two methods for the adaptation of sensing matrix ensembles to the second-order moments of natural signals. These techniques leverage the maximisation of different proxies for the quantity of information acquired by compressed sensing, and are efficiently applied in the encoding of electrocardiographic tracks with minimum-complexity digital hardware. Secondly, we focus on the possibility of using compressed sensing as a method to provide a partial, yet cryptanalysis-resistant form of encryption; in this context, we show how a random matrix generation strategy with a controlled amount of perturbations can be used to distinguish between multiple user classes with different quality of access to the encrypted information content. Finally, we explore the application of compressed sensing in the design of a multispectral imager, by implementing an optical scheme that entails a coded aperture array and Fabry-Pérot spectral filters. The signal recoveries obtained by processing real-world measurements show promising results, that leave room for an improvement of the sensing matrix calibration problem in the devised imager.

Flexibility and firm value: the role of inventories

In the present thesis I study the contribution to firm value of inventories management from a risk management perspective. I find a significant contribution of inventories to the value of risk management especially through the operating flexibility channel. In contrast, I do not find evidence supporting the view of inventories a reserve of liquidity. Inventories substitute, albeit not perfectly, derivatives or cash holdings. The substitution between hedging with derivatives and inventory is moderated by the correlation between cash flow and the underlying asset in the derivative contract. Hedge ratios increase with the effectiveness of derivatives. The decision to hedge with cash holdings or inventories is strongly influenced by the degree of complementarity between production factors and by cash flow volatility. In addition, I provide a risk management based explanation of the secular substitution between inventories and cash holdings documented, among others, in Bates et al. (2009), Journal of Finance. In a sample of U.S. firms between 1980 and 2006, I empirically confirm the negative relation between inventories and cash and provide evidence on the poor performance of investment cash flow sensitivities as a measure of financial constraints also in the case of inventories investment. This result can be explained by firms' scarce reliance on inventories as a reserve of liquidity. Finally, as an extension of my study, I contrast with empirical data the theoretical predictions of a model on the integrated management of inventories, trade credit and cash holdings.

Roman aqueducts and calcareous sinter deposits as a proxy for environmental changes

Die im Süden der Türkei gelegen, antiken Städte Aspendos und Patara, waren in der Römerzeit zwei bedeutende Handelszentren mit hoher Bevölkerungsdichte. Aquädukte versorgten beide Städte mit carbonathaltigem Wasser, wobei sich Kalksinter (Calciumcarbonat) in der Kanalrinne ablagerte. Dabei lagern sich im Wechsel eine hellere und dunklere Kalksinterlage ab, die als Sinterpaar bezeichnet wird. Um die Entstehung dieser Sinterpaare besser zu verstehen, und die beteiligten Prozesse mit saisonalen Veränderungen der Umwelt zu korrelieren, werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit laminierten Sinterablagerungen mit geochemischen und petrographischen Methoden untersucht.rnEntlang der Kanalrinne beider Aquädukte wurden an mehreren Stellen Proben entnommen. Es wurde untersucht in wieweit sich die Sinterstruktur aufgrund von Änderungen in der Neigung des Wasserkanals oder des Kanaltyps ändert. Um die Kristallform und die kristallografische Orientierung der Kristalle innerhalb der verschiedenen Sinterpaare zu untersuchen, wurden die entnommenen laminierten Kalksinterablagerungen mit Hilfe optischer Mikroskopie und EBSD (Electron Backscatter Diffraction) analysiert. Der Electron Probe Micro-Analyzer (EPMA) wurde verwendet, um saisonale Schwankungen der Hauptelementverteilung und den Anteil der stabilen Isotope im Wasser zu bestimmen. Die LA-ICP-MS (Laser Ablation-induktiv gekoppeltem Plasma-Massenspektrometrie) Spurenelementanalyse wurde durchgeführt, um kleinste Schwankungen der Spurenelemente zu finden. Basierend auf diesen Analysen wurde festgestellt, dass laminierten Kalksinterablagerungen laterale Änderungen in der Aquäduktstruktur und -neigung, jahreszeitliche Änderungen der Wasserchemie, der Temperatur sowie der Entgasungsrate während eines Jahres widerspiegeln. Die Kalksinterablagerungen zeigen eine deutliche Laminierung in Form von feinkörnig-porösen und grobkörnig-dichten Schichten, die trockene und nasse Jahreszeiten anzeigen. Feinkörnige Schichten zeigen eine hohe Epifluoreszenz aufgrund reichhaltiger organischer Inhalte, die vermutlich eine Folge der bakteriellen Aktivität während der warmen und trockenen Jahreszeit sind. Stabile Sauerstoff und Kohlenstoff-Isotop-Kurven entsprechen auch den jahreszeitlichen Schwankungen der verschiedenen Schichtenpaare. Vor allem δ 18O spiegelt jährliche Veränderungen in der Temperatur und jahreszeitliche Veränderungen des Abflusses wieder. Das wichtigste Ergebnis ist, dass die Periodizität von δ 18O durch Erwärmen des Wassers im Wasserkanal und nicht durch die Verdunstung oder der Brunnenwasser-Charakteristik verursacht wird. Die Periodizität von δ 13C ist komplexer Natur, vor allem zeigen δ 18O und δ 13C eine Antikorrelation entlang der Lamellenpaare. Dies wird wohl vor allem durch Entgasungsprozesse im Aquädukt verursacht. Die Ergebnisse der Spurenelemente sind meist inkonsistent und zeigen keine signifikanten Veränderungen in den verschiedenen Lamellenpaaren. Die Isotope Mg, Sr und Ba zeigen hingegen bei einigen Proben eine positive Korrelation und erreichen Höchstwerte innerhalb feinkörnig-poröser Schichten. Auch sind die Hauptelementwerte von Fe, K, Si und anderer detritischer Elemente innerhalb der feinkörnige-porösen Schichten maximal. Eine genaue Datierung der Kalksinterablagerungen ist wünschenswert, da der Zeitraum, in dem die Aquädukte aktiv waren, bereits archäologisch auf 200-300 Jahre festgelegt wurde. Paläomagnetische und 14C-Datierung geben keine brauchbare Ergebnisse. Die U/Th Isotopie wird durch eine hohe Anfangskonzentration von Th in den Proben behindert. Trotz dieser Schwierigkeiten war eine U/Th Datierung an einem Testbeispiel des Béziers Aquädukt erfolgreich. Mit Hilfe von analogen Untersuchungen an aktiven Wasserkanälen der heutigen Zeit, werden die Ablagerungsmechanismen und die geochemische Entwicklung der laminierten Sinterschichten besser verstanden. Ein weiteres laufendes Projekt dieser Doktorarbeit ist die Überwachung von Sinterabscheidungen und der saisonale Zusammensetzung des Wassers an einigen heute noch aktiven Aquädukten. Das Ziel ist die Untersuchung der jetzigen Calciumcarbonatabscheidungen in Aquäduktkanälen unter den heutigen Umgebungsbedingungen. Erste Ergebnisse zeigen, dass kleine regelmäßige jahreszeitliche Veränderungen in der Isotopenzusammensetzung des Wassers vorliegen, und dass die beobachtete Periodizität der stabilen Isotope aufgrund von Änderungen im eigentlichen Kanal entstanden ist. Die Untersuchung von Kalksinterablagerungen in römischen Aquädukten liefern vielversprechende Ergebnisse, für die Untersuchung des Paläöklimas, der Archaeoseismologie und anderer Umweltbedingungen in der Römerzeit. Diese Studie beschränkt sich auf zwei Aquädukte. Die Untersuchungen weiterer Aquädukte und einer Überwachung, der noch in Betrieb stehenden Aquädukte werden genauere Ergebnisse liefern.

Calibration study of bivalve shells : implications for paleoenvironmental reconstruction

The accretionary shells of bivalve mollusks can provide environmental information, such as water temperature, precipitation, freshwater fluxes, primary productivity and anthropogenic activities in the form of variable growth rates and variable geochemical properties, such as stable oxygen and carbon isotopes. However, paleoenvironmental reconstructions are constrained by uncertainties about isotopic equilibrium fractionation during shell formation, which is generally acknowledged as a reasonable assumption for bivalves, but it has been disputed in several species. Furthermore, the variation in shell growth rates is accepted to rely on multiple environmental variables, such as temperature, food availability and salinity, but can differ from species to species. Therefore, it is necessary to perform species-specific calibration studies for both isotope proxies and shell growth rates before they can be used with confidence for environmental interpretations of the past. Accordingly, the principal objective of this Ph.D research is to examine the reliability of selected bivalve species, the long-lived Eurhomalea exalbida (Dillwyn), the short-lived and fast growing species Paphia undulata (Born 1778), and the freshwater mussel Margaritifera falcata (Gould 1850), as paleoenvironmental proxy archives.rnThe first part is focused on δ18Oshell and shell growth history of live-collected E. exalbida from the Falkland Islands. The most remarkable finding, however, is that E. exalbida formed its shell with an offset of -0.48‰ to -1.91‰ from the expected oxygen isotopic equilibrium with the ambient water. If this remained unnoticed, paleotemperature estimates would overestimate actual water temperatures by 2.1-8.3°C. With increasing ontogenetic age, the discrepancy between measured and reconstructed temperatures increased exponentially, irrespective of the seasonally varying shell growth rates. This study clearly demonstrates that, when the disequilibrium fractionation effect is taken into account, E. exalbida can serve as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for the southern South America. The species therefore provides quantifiable temperature estimates, which yields new insights into long-term paleoclimate dynamics for mid to high latitudes on the southern hemisphere.rnThe stable carbon isotope of biogenic carbonates is generally considered to be useful for reconstruction of seawater dissolved inorganic carbon. The δ13Cshell composition of E. exalbida was therefore, investigated in the second part of this study. This chapter focuses on inter-annual and intra-annual variations in δ13Cshell. Environmental records in δ13Cshell are found to be strongly obscured by changes in shell growth rates, even if removing the ontogenetic decreasing trend. This suggests that δ13Cshell in E. exalbida may not be useful as an environmental proxy, but a potential tool for ecological investigations. rnIn addition to long-lived bivalve species, short-lived species that secrete their shells extremely fast, can also be useful for environmental reconstructions, especially as a high-resolution recorder. Therefore, P. undulata from Daya Bay, South China Sea was utilized in Chapter 4 to evaluate and establish a potential proxy archive for past variations of the East Asian monsoon on shorter time-scales. The δ18Oshell can provide qualitative estimates of the amount of monsoonal rain and terrestrial runoff and the δ13Cshell likely reflect the relative amount of isotopically light terrestrial carbon that reaches the ocean during the summer monsoon season. Therefore, shells of P. undulata can provide serviceable proxy archives to reconstruct the frequency of exceptional summer monsoons in the past. The relative strength of monsoon-related precipitation and associated changes in ocean salinity and the δ13C ratios of the dissolved inorganic carbon signature (δ13CDIC) can be estimated from the δ18Oshell and δ13Cshell values as well as shell growth patterns. rnIn the final part, the freshwater pearl shell M. falcata from four rivers in British Columbia, Canada was preliminarily studied concerning the lifespans and the shell growth rates. Two groups separated by the Georgia Strait can be clearly distinguished. Specimens from the western group exhibit a shorter lifespan, while the eastern group live longer. Moreover, the average lifespan seems to decrease from south to north. The computed growth equations from the eastern and western groups differ as well. The western group exhibits a lower growth rate, while bivalves from the eastern group grow faster. The land use history seems to be responsible for the differences in lifespans of the specimens from the two groups. Differences in growth rate may be induced by differences in water temperature or nutrient input also related to the land use activities.

Paleoclimate reconstruction using LA-ICP-MS analyses of ostracods and stalagmite

Als paläoklimatische Archive können unter anderem Stalagmiten und Klappen von Ostrakoden herangezogen werden. Bisher gab es noch keine veröffentlichten Ergebnisse räumlich hochaufgelöster Spurenelementverteilungen in einzelnen Ostrakodenklappen. Das gleiche gilt für die Bestimmung radiogener Blei-Isotope in Stalagmiten. Um klimatische Prozesse vergangener Zeiten zu untersuchen, wurde eine neue LA-ICP-MS (Laserablations – Massenspektrometrie mit induktiv gekoppeltem Plasma) Technik für hochaufgelöste in-situ Messungen von Spurenelementen und Bleiisotopen entwickelt. rnrnZunächst wurden geeignete Materialien für die Kalibrierung der Technik untersucht; als Proben dienten die Silikatreferenzgläser BAM-S005-A und BAM-S005B der Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung (BAM). Die Homogenität dieser Referenzgläser wurde mit LA-ICP-MS und den anderen mikroanalytischen Methoden EPMA (Elektronenmikrosonde) und SIMS (Ionensonde) überprüft. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass alle Haupt- und die meisten Spurenelemente in beiden Gläsern selbst im Mikrometerbereich homogen verteilt sind. Ausnahmen sind einige Spurenelemente, wie Cs, Cl, Cr, Mo und Ni, die heterogen in den Gläsern verteilt sind. Die Hauptelementzusammensetzung von BAM-S005-A und BAM-S005-B wurde mit Hilfe der EPMA bestimmt, wobei die Ergebnisse die Referenzwerte des BAM-Zertifikats bestätigten. Mit Ausnahme von Sr, Ba, Ce und Pb, stimmten die LA-ICP-MS-Spurenelementwerte mit den zertifizierten Werten innerhalb der angegebenen Fehlergrenzen überein. Gründe für die Diskrepanz der vier oben erwähnten Elemente sind noch unklar, aber sind möglicherweise durch fehlerhafte Referenzwerte zu erklären. Zusätzlich wurden 22 Spurenelemente gemessen, deren Gehalte von BAM nicht zertifiziert wurden. Aufgrund dieser Untersuchungen konnte festgestellt werden, dass beide BAM-Gläser für mikroanalytische Anwendungen geeignet sind.rnrnUm neuartige paläoklimatische Proxies im Calcit von Ostrakoden aus tibetanischen Seesedimenten zu untersuchen, wurde die Spurenelementvariabilität in einzelnen Ostrakodenklappen durch eine neue LA-ICP-MS-Technik bestimmt. Klappen von Ostrakoden der drei Arten (Leucocytherella sinensis Huang, 1982, ?Leucocythere dorsotuberosa Huang, 1982 und ?L. dorsotuberosa f. postilirata sensu Pang, 1985) wurden aus zwei Sedimentkernen des Nam Co Sees auf dem Hochplateau von Tibet gewonnen. Zwei LA-ICP-MS-Varianten, Spot- bzw. Linienanalyse, wurden verwendet, um die Elementkonzentrationen der Spurenelemente Mg, Sr, Ba, U und die der Seltenen Erdelemente (SEE) in den Klappen einzelner Ostrakoden zu bestimmen. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass die Linienanalyse präzisere Daten als die Spotanalyse liefert und sie wurde daher vorgezogen. Signifikante Unterschiede in der Spurenelementzusammensetzung zwischen den verschiedenen Arten der Ostrakoden wurden nicht gefunden. Variationen der Elementverhältnisse Mg/Ca und Sr/Ca in den Klappen stimmen mit veröffentlichten Seenspiegelschwankungen während des Holozäns überein, was zeigt, dass Mg- und Sr-Messungen in den Ostrakoden zur Untersuchung paläohydrochemischer Prozesse in diesem Gebiet herangezogen werden kann. Die gute Korrelation, die in dieser Arbeit zwischen Ba/Ca und Sr/Ca gefunden wurde, ist ein Hinweis darauf, dass der Einbau von Ba und Sr in die Klappen durch den gleichen Mechanismus erfolgte. Eine mögliche Beziehung zwischen dem U/Ca-Verhältnis in den Ostrakoden und den Redoxbedingungen auf dem Boden des Sees in der Vergangenheit wird diskutiert. Relativ geringe und konstante La/Ca-Verhältnisse wurden festgestellt, deren Ursache möglicherweise entweder auf der SEE-Charakteristik des Seewassers, auf biologischen Prozessen in den Ostrakoden oder auf Kontamination von Fe-Mn und/oder organischen Substanzen beruhen. Weitere Untersuchungen an Proben aus diesem Gebiet, speziell Klappen von lebenden Ostrakoden, sind notwendig, um den Gehalt von Ba, U und den SEE in Ostrakoden als paläoklimatische Proxies von Umweltbedingungen zu verwenden.

Methodenentwicklung zur Spurenanalyse organischer Biomarker in Speläothemen und Tropfwasser mittels Flüssigchromatographie-(HR-)Massenspektrometrie

Speläotheme und Tropfwasser spielen eine wichtige Rolle bei der Erforschung von Naturerscheinungen. Während sich bisherige Studien größtenteils auf anorganische Proxies konzentrieren, wächst das Interesse an organischen Biomarkern, vor allem Lipidbiomarkern.rnAufgrund dessen wurde eine neue Methode entwickelt, um Fettsäuren mit einer geradzahligen Kettenlänge C12-C20 in Speläothem- und Tropfwasserproben zu bestimmen. Dabei kam eine Festphasenextraktion mit anschließender HPLC-MS Messung zum Einsatz. Die Methode wurde auf mehrere Proben aus der Herbstlabyrinth-Adventhöhle angewendet. Die benötigte Probenmenge wurde im Vergleich zu früheren Studien von etwa 4 L auf 60-100 mL bei Tropfwasser und von 10-100 g auf ca. 0,5-3,5 g bei Stalagmitproben reduziert. Es konnte eine interne Variation der Analyten festgestellt werden. Korrelationen der Fettsäuren ließen vermuten, dass C12-C18 von der gleichen Quelle stammen, während C20 teilweise andere Quellen besitzt. Korrelationen mit δ13C verdeutlichten, dass es einen Zusammenhang zwischen der Vegetationsdichte und dem Vorkommen der Fett-säuren in dem Probenmaterial gibt. Vergleiche mit Mg Konzentrationen zeigten, dass die Niederschlagsmenge zwar den Transport der Fettsäuren mit dem Tropfwasser beeinflusst, allerdings nicht ihre ermittelte Konzentration in Stalagmitproben. Die ermittelten Ergebnisse ließen darauf schließen, dass eindeutigere Vegetations-Proxies als die Fettsäuren gefunden werden müssen. Ein erstmaliges non-target screening verdeutlichte, dass Lignine und Tannine als charakteristische Biomarker eingesetzt werden können.rn

STrengthening the reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology-Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME): an extension of the STROBE statement

Advances in laboratory techniques have led to a rapidly increasing use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Biomarkers of internal dose, early biological change, susceptibility, and clinical outcomes are used as proxies for investigating the interactions between external and/or endogenous agents and the body components or processes. The need for improved reporting of scientific research led to influential statements of recommendations such as STrengthening Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement. The STROBE initiative established in 2004 aimed to provide guidance on how to report observational research. Its guidelines provide a user-friendly checklist of 22 items to be reported in epidemiological studies, with items specific to the three main study designs: cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies. The present STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology-Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME) initiative builds on the STROBE Statement implementing 9 existing items of STROBE and providing 17 additional items to the 22 items of STROBE checklist. The additions relate to the use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies, concerning collection, handling and storage of biological samples; laboratory methods, validity and reliability of biomarkers; specificities of study design; and ethical considerations. The STROBE-ME recommendations are intended to complement the STROBE recommendations.

STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology--Molecular Epidemiology STROBE-ME: an extension of the STROBE statement

Advances in laboratory techniques have led to a rapidly increasing use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Biomarkers of internal dose, early biological change susceptibility and clinical outcomes are used as proxies for investigating the interactions between external and/or endogenous agents and body components or processes. The need for improved reporting of scientific research led to influential statements of recommendations such as the STrengthening Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement. The STROBE initiative established in 2004 aimed to provide guidance on how to report observational research. Its guidelines provide a user-friendly checklist of 22 items to be reported in epidemiological studies, with items specific to the three main study designs: cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies. The present STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology -Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME) initiative builds on the STROBE statement implementing 9 existing items of STROBE and providing 17 additional items to the 22 items of STROBE checklist. The additions relate to the use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies, concerning collection, handling and storage of biological samples; laboratory methods, validity and reliability of biomarkers; specificities of study design; and ethical considerations. The STROBE-ME recommendations are intended to complement the STROBE recommendations.

STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology - Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME): an extension of the STROBE statement

Advances in laboratory techniques have led to a rapidly increasing use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Biomarkers of internal dose, early biological change, susceptibility and clinical outcomes are used as proxies for investigating the interactions between external and/or endogenous agents and the body components or processes. The need for improved reporting of scientific research led to influential statements of recommendations such as the STrenghtening Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement. The STROBE initiative established in 2004 aimed to provide guidance on how to report observational research. Its guidelines provide a user-friendly checklist of 22 items to be reported in epidemiological studies, with items specific to the three main study designs: cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies. The present STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology - Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME) initiative builds on the STROBE Statement implementing 9 existing items of STROBE and providing 17 additional items to the 22 items of STROBE checklist. The additions relate to the use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies, concerning collection, handling and storage of biological samples; laboratory methods, validity and reliability of biomarkers; specificities of study design; and ethical considerations. The STROBE-ME recommendations are intended to complement the STROBE recommendations.

STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology--Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME): an extension of the STROBE statement

Advances in laboratory techniques have led to a rapidly increasing use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Biomarkers of internal dose, early biological change, susceptibility and clinical outcomes are used as proxies for investigating interactions between external and / or endogenous agents and body components or processes. The need for improved reporting of scientific research led to influential statements of recommendations such as the STrengthening Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement. The STROBE initiative established in 2004 aimed to provide guidance on how to report observational research. Its guidelines provide a user-friendly checklist of 22 items to be reported in epidemiological studies, with items specific to the three main study designs: cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies. The present STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology - Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME) initiative builds on the STROBE statement implementing nine existing items of STROBE and providing 17 additional items to the 22 items of STROBE checklist. The additions relate to the use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies, concerning collection, handling and storage of biological samples; laboratory methods, validity and reliability of biomarkers; specificities of study design; and ethical considerations. The STROBE-ME recommendations are intended to complement the STROBE recommendations.

STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology - Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME): an extension of the STROBE statement

Advances in laboratory techniques have led to a rapidly increasing use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Biomarkers of internal dose, early biological change, susceptibility and clinical outcomes are used as proxies for investigating interactions between external and/or endogenous agents and body components or processes. The need for improved reporting of scientific research led to influential statements of recommendations such as the STrengthening Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement. The STROBE initiative established in 2004 aimed to provide guidance on how to report observational research. Its guidelines provide a user-friendly checklist of 22 items to be reported in epidemiological studies, with items specific to the three main study designs: cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies. The present STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology -Molecular Epidemiology (STROBE-ME) initiative builds on the STROBE statement implementing nine existing items of STROBE and providing 17 additional items to the 22 items of STROBE checklist. The additions relate to the use of biomarkers in epidemiological studies, concerning collection, handling and storage of biological samples; laboratory methods, validity and reliability of biomarkers; specificities of study design; and ethical considerations. The STROBE-ME recommendations are intended to complement the STROBE recommendations.

A multi-proxy approach for revealing recent climatic changes in the Russian Altai

For the first time we present a multi-proxy data set for the Russian Altai, consisting of Siberian larch tree-ring width (TRW), latewood density (MXD), δ13C and δ18O in cellulose chronologies obtained for the period 1779–2007 and cell wall thickness (CWT) for 1900–2008. All of these parameters agree well between each other in the high-frequency variability, while the low-frequency climate information shows systematic differences. The correlation analysis with temperature and precipitation data from the closest weather station and gridded data revealed that annual TRW, MXD, CWT, and δ13C data contain a strong summer temperature signal, while δ18O in cellulose represents a mixed summer and winter temperature and precipitation signal. The temperature and precipitation reconstructions from the Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments were used to investigate the correspondence of different independent proxies. Low frequency patterns in TRW and δ13C chronologies are consistent with temperature reconstructions from nearby Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments showing a pronounced warming trend in the last century. Their combination could be used for the regional temperature reconstruction. The long-term δ18O trend agrees with the precipitation reconstruction from the Teletskoe lake sediment indicating more humid conditions during the twentieth century. Therefore, these two proxies could be combined for the precipitation reconstruction.

Sexual selection and speciation: the comparative evidence revisited

The spectacular diversity in sexually selected traits in the animal kingdom has inspired the hypothesis that sexual selection can promote species divergence. In recent years, several studies have attempted to test this idea by correlating species richness with estimates of sexual selection across phylogenies. These studies have yielded mixed results and it remains unclear whether the comparative evidence can be taken as generally supportive. Here, we conduct a meta-analysis of the comparative evidence and find a small but significant positive overall correlation between sexual selection and speciation rate. However, we also find that effect size estimates are influenced by methodological choices. Analyses that included deeper phylogenetic nodes yielded weaker correlations, and different proxies for sexual selection showed different relationships with species richness. We discuss the biological and methodological implications of these findings. We argue that progress requires more representative sampling and justification of chosen proxies for sexual selection and speciation rate, as well as more mechanistic approaches.

Causes and consequences of past and projected Scandinavian summer temperatures, 500-2100 AD

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years.