830 resultados para Global changes and construction of future scenarios


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The potential changes to the territory of the Russian Arctic open up unique possibilities for the development of tourism. More favourable transport opportunities along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) create opportunities for tourism development based on the utilisation of the extensive areas of sea shores and river basins. A major challenge for the Russian Arctic sea and river ports is their strong cargo transport orientation originated by natural resource extraction industries. A careful assessment of the prospects of current and future tourism development is presented here based on the development of regions located along the shores of the Arctic ocean (including Murmansk and Arkhangelsk oblast, Nenets Autonomous okrug (AO), Yamal-Nenets AO, Taymyr AO, Republic of Sakha, Chykotsky AO). An evaluation of the present development of tourism in maritime cities suggests that a considerable qualitative and quantitative increase of tourism activities organised by domestic tourism firms is made virtually impossible. There are several factors contributing to this. The previously established Soviet system of state support for the investments into the port facilities as well as the sea fleet were not effectively replaced by creation of new structures. The necessary investments for reconstruction could be contributed by the federal government but the priorities are not set towards the increased passenger transportation. Having in mind, increased environmental pressures in this highly sensitive area it is especially vital to establish a well-functioning monitoring and rescue system in the situation of ever increasing risks which come not only from the increased transports along the NSR, but also from the exploitation of the offshore oil and gas reserves in the Arctic seas. The capacity and knowledge established in Nordic countries (Norway, Finland) concerning cruise tourism should not be underestimated and the already functioning cooperation in Barents Region should expand towards this particular segment of the tourism industry. The current stage of economic development in Russia makes it clear that tourism development is not able to compete with the well-needed increase in the cargo transportation, which means that Russia’s fleet is going to be utilised by other industries. However, opening up this area to both local and international visitors could contribute to the economic prosperity of these remote areas and if carefully managed could sustain already existing maritime cities along the shores of the Arctic Ocean.

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The aim of this study was to investigate if a telemetry test battery can be used to measure effects of Parkinson’s disease (PD) treatment intervention and disease progression in patients with fluctuations. Sixty-five patients diagnosed with advanced PD were recruited in an open longitudinal 36-month study; 35 treated with levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel (LCIG) and 30 were candidates for switching from oral PD treatment to LCIG. They utilized a test battery, consisting of self-assessments of symptoms and fine motor tests (tapping and spiral drawings), four times per day in their homes during week-long test periods. The repeated measurements were summarized into an overall test score (OTS) to represent the global condition of the patient during a test period. Clinical assessments included ratings on Unified PD Rating Scale (UPDRS) and 39-item PD Questionnaire (PDQ-39) scales. In LCIG-naïve patients, mean OTS compared to baseline was significantly improved from the first test period on LCIG treatment until month 24. In LCIG-non-naïve patients, there were no significant changes in mean OTS until month 36. The OTS correlated adequately with total UPDRS (rho = 0.59) and total PDQ-39 (0.59). Responsiveness measured as effect size was 0.696 and 0.536 for OTS and UPDRS respectively. The trends of the test scores were similar to the trends of clinical rating scores but dropout rate was high. Correlations between OTS and clinical rating scales were adequate indicating that the test battery contains important elements of the information of well-established scales. The responsiveness and reproducibility were better for OTS than for total UPDRS.

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http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/atlasofmaine2005/1020/thumbnail.jpg

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This paper presents semiparametric estimators of changes in inequality measures of a dependent variable distribution taking into account the possible changes on the distributions of covariates. When we do not impose parametric assumptions on the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given covariates, this problem becomes equivalent to estimation of distributional impacts of interventions (treatment) when selection to the program is based on observable characteristics. The distributional impacts of a treatment will be calculated as differences in inequality measures of the potential outcomes of receiving and not receiving the treatment. These differences are called here Inequality Treatment Effects (ITE). The estimation procedure involves a first non-parametric step in which the probability of receiving treatment given covariates, the propensity-score, is estimated. Using the inverse probability weighting method to estimate parameters of the marginal distribution of potential outcomes, in the second step weighted sample versions of inequality measures are computed. Root-N consistency, asymptotic normality and semiparametric efficiency are shown for the semiparametric estimators proposed. A Monte Carlo exercise is performed to investigate the behavior in finite samples of the estimator derived in the paper. We also apply our method to the evaluation of a job training program.

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In the 1970s, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) was discussed by Nobel laureate Milton Friedman in his article “The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits.” (Friedman, 1970). His view on CSR was contemptuous as he referred to it as “hypocritical window-dressing” a reflection of the view of Corporate America on CSR back then. For a long time short-term maximization of shareholder value was the only maxim for top management across industries and companies. Over the last decade, CSR has become a more important and relevant factor of a company’s reputation, shifting the discussion from whether CSR is necessary to how best CSR commitments should be done (Smith, 2003). Inevitably, companies do have an environmental, social and economic impact, thereby imposing social costs on current and future generations. In 2013, 50 of the world biggest companies have been responsible for 73 percent of the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emission (Global 500 Climate Change Report 2013). Post et al. (2002) refer to these social costs as a company’s need to retain its “license to operate”. In the late 1990s, CSR reporting was nearly unknown, which drastically changed during the last decade. Allen White, co-founder of the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), said that CSR reporting”… has evolved from the extraordinary to the exceptional to the expected” (Confino, 2013). In confirmation of this, virtually all of the world’s largest 250 companies report on CSR (93%) and reporting by now appears to be business standard (KPMG, 2013). CSR reports are a medium for transparency which may lead to an improved company reputation (Noked, 2013; Thorne et al, 2008; Wilburn and Wilburn, 2013). In addition, it may be used as part of an ongoing shareholder relations campaign, which may prevent shareholders from submitting Environmental and Social (E&S)1 proposals (Noked, 2013), based on an Ernst & Young report 1 The top five E&S proposal topic areas in 2013 were: 1. Political spending/ lobbying; 2. Environmental sustainability; 3. Corporate diversity/ EEO; 4.Labor/ human rights and 5. Animal testing/ animal welfare. Three groups of environmental sustainability proposal topics of sub-category number two (environmental sustainability) 6 2013, representing the largest category of shareholder proposals submitted. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) even goes as far as to claim that CSR reports are “…becoming critical to a company’s credibility, transparency and endurance.” (PwC, 2013).

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This document represents a doctoral thesis held under the Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration of Getulio Vargas Foundation (EBAPE/FGV), developed through the elaboration of three articles. The research that resulted in the articles is within the scope of the project entitled “Windows of opportunities and knowledge networks: implications for catch-up in developing countries”, funded by Support Programme for Research and Academic Production of Faculty (ProPesquisa) of Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) of Getulio Vargas Foundation.

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Develop software is still a risky business. After 60 years of experience, this community is still not able to consistently build Information Systems (IS) for organizations with predictable quality, within previously agreed budget and time constraints. Although software is changeable we are still unable to cope with the amount and complexity of change that organizations demand for their IS. To improve results, developers followed two alternatives: Frameworks that increase productivity but constrain the flexibility of possible solutions; Agile ways of developing software that keep flexibility with less upfront commitments. With strict frameworks, specific hacks have to be put in place to get around the framework construction options. In time this leads to inconsistent architectures that are harder to maintain due to incomplete documentation and human resources turnover. The main goals of this work is to create a new way to develop flexible IS for organizations, using web technologies, in a faster, better and cheaper way that is more suited to handle organizational change. To do so we propose an adaptive object model that uses a new ontology for data and action with strict normalizing rules. These rules should bound the effects of changes that can be better tested and therefore corrected. Interfaces are built with templates of resources that can be reused and extended in a flexible way. The “state of the world” for each IS is determined by all production and coordination acts that agents performed over time, even those performed by external systems. When bugs are found during maintenance, their past cascading effects can be checked through simulation, re-running the log of transaction acts over time and checking results with previous records. This work implements a prototype with part of the proposed system in order to have a preliminary assessment its feasibility and limitations.

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The volatiles (VOCs) and semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) responsible for aroma are mainly present in skin of grape varieties. Thus, the present investigation is directed towards the optimisation of a solvent free methodology based on headspace-solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with gas chromatography–quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC–qMS) in order to establish the global volatile composition in pulp and skin of Bual and Bastardo Vitis vinifera L. varieties. A deep study on the extraction-influencing parameters was performed, and the best results, expressed as GC peak area, number of identified compounds and reproducibility, were obtained using 4 g of sample homogenised in 5 mL of ultra-pure Milli-Q water in a 20 mL glass vial with addition of 2 g of sodium chloride (NaCl). A divinylbenzene/carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane fibre was selected for extraction at 60 °C for 45 min under continuous stirring at 800 rpm. More than 100 VOCs and SVOCs, including 27 monoterpenoids, 27 sesquiterpenoids, 21 carbonyl compounds, 17 alcohols (from which 2 aromatics), 10 C13 norisoprenoids and 5 acids were identified. The results showed that, for both grape varieties, the levels and number of volatiles in skin were considerably higher than those observed in pulp. According to the data obtained by principal component analysis (PCA), the establishment of the global volatile signature of grape and the relationship between different part of grapes—pulp and skin, may be an useful tool to winemaker decision to define the vinification procedures that improves the organoleptic characteristics of the corresponding wines and consequently contributed to an economic valorization and consumer acceptance.

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Alkaline phosphatase is required for the mineralization of bone and cartilage. This enzyme is localized in the matrix vesicle, which plays a role key in calcifying cartilage. In this paper we standardize a method to construction a resealed ghost cell-alkaline phosphatase system to mimic matrix vesicles and examine the kinetic behavior of the incorporated enzyme. Polidocanol-solubilized alkaline phosphatase, free of detergent, was incorporated into resealed ghost cells. This process was time-dependent and practically 50% of the enzyme was incorporated into the vesicles in 40 h of incubation, at 25 degreesC. Alkaline phosphatase-ghost cell systems were relatively homogeneous with diameters of about 300 nm and were more stable when stored at -20 degreesC.Alkaline phosphatase was completely released from the resealed ghost cell-system using only phospholipase C. These experiments confirm that the interaction between alkaline phosphatase and the lipid bilayer of resealed ghost cell is exclusively via glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI) anchor of the enzyme.An important point shown is that an enzyme bound to resealed ghost cell does not lose the ability to hydrolyze ATP, pyrophosphate and p-nitrophenyl phosphate (PNPP), but the presence of a ghost membrane, as a support of the enzyme, affects its kinetic properties. Moreover, calcium ions stimulate and phosphate ions inhibit the PNPPase activity of alkaline phosphatase present in resealed ghost cells. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

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O bacuri (Platonia insignis, Mart.) é um dos mais importantes entre os frutos da Amazônia. Todavia, pouco se sabe sobre sua fisiologia pós-colheita, bem como, estádio de maturação, mudanças durante o armazenamento sob condições ambientais e padrão respiratório. Os frutos foram colhidos em três estádios de maturação baseados na coloração do epicarpo: verde-escuro, verde-claro e de vez (50% amarelo), com o objetivo de se determinar as modificações de coloração e padrão respiratório durante armazenamento sob condições de ambiente (25,2 ºC, 75,1 % UR). Os frutos de todos os estádios de maturação apresentaram, a partir do terceiro dia de colheita, comportamento respiratório não climatérico, com os frutos de vez apresentando maior taxa de produção de CO2 até o quarto dia de armazenamento (177,63 mg CO2.kg-1.h-1). O amarelecimento aumentou durante o armazenamento e foi relacionado com a diminuição da luminosidade (L), cromaticidade e ângulo hue. Os frutos de vez podem ser armazenados sob condições de ambiente por até 10 dias sem nenhuma perda da qualidade comercial.

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Esta pesquisa foi realizada com os objetivos de caracterizar a microbiologia e avaliar a estabilidade aeróbia de silagens de capim-marandu contendo polpa cítrica peletizada (PCP). A forragem colhida foi submetida aos seguintes tratamentos: silagem de capim-marandu; silagem de capim-marandu + 5% PCP e silagem do capim-marandu + 10% de PCP com base na matéria natural. As alterações químicas e microbiológicas foram feitas aos 0, 2, 4 e 6 dias após a abertura dos silos (tambores de metal com 80 cm de altura e 50 cm de diâmetro). Na avaliação da estabilidade aeróbia por meio da alteração da temperatura, 3 kg de silagem foram colocados em caixas de isopor, que foram armazenadas em câmara climática. Nos dois ensaios realizados, utilizou-se delineamento inteiramente ao acaso com cinco repetições, em esquema de parcelas subdivididas, de modo que os níveis de PCP na silagem corresponderam às parcelas e o tempo, às subparcelas. As silagens sem polpa apresentaram desenvolvimento de bacilos e enterobactérias e aumento do pH no decorrer do desabastecimento dos silos. A presença de leveduras foi detectada nas silagens contendo o aditivo e aumentou do primeiro ao sexto dia de aeração. A digestibilidade in vitro da matéria seca (DIVMS) reduziu com o aumento dos tempos de aeração. A temperatura nas silagens com 10% de PCP aumentou durante a aerobiose. Com a abertura dos silos, as silagens apresentaram-se instáveis, seja pelo desenvolvimento de bactérias seja pelo desenvolvimento de leveduras, o que reduziu seu valor nutritivo.

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Avaliou-se a evolução anual das componentes global, direta e difusa da radiação solar incidente em superfícies inclinadas a 12,85; 22,85 e 32,85º, com face voltada ao Norte, em Botucatu-SP. Foram obtidas frações radiométricas para cada componente da radiação nas superfícies supracitadas, através de razões com a radiação global e a do topo da atmosfera. A sazonalidade foi avaliada através das médias mensais dos valores diários. As medidas ocorreram entre 04/1998 e 07/2001, em 22,85º; 08/2001 e 02/2003, em 12,85º; e de 03/2003 a 12/2007, em 32,85º, com medidas concomitantes no plano horizontal (referência). Os níveis das radiações global e direta nos planos inclinados foram inferiores no período de verão e superiores entre os equinócios, quando comparadas ao plano horizontal. A radiação difusa nas superfícies inclinadas foi inferior na maioria dos meses, com perdas de até 65%. Ocorreu uma tendência de aumento das diferenças entre as superfícies horizontal e inclinada com o incremento do ângulo em todas as componentes e frações da radiação incidente. A evolução anual das precipitações pluviométricas e da razão de nebulosidade afetou diretamente a transmissividade atmosférica das componentes direta e difusa na região.