Analysis of Transmission System Adequacy Considering the Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow

Power flow calculations are one of the most important tools for power system planning and operation. The need to account for uncertainties when performing power flow studies led, among others methods, to the development of the fuzzy power flow (FPF). This kind of models is especially interesting when a scarcity of information exists, which is a common situation in liberalized power systems (where generation and commercialization of electricity are market activities). In this framework, the symmetric/constrained fuzzy power flow (SFPF/CFPF) was proposed in order to avoid some of the problems of the original FPF model. The SFPF/CFPF models are suitable to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy “reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity” as defined, for instance, in the European Directive 2009/72/EC. In this work it is illustrated how the SFPF/CFPF may be used to evaluate the impact on the adequacy of a transmission system originated by specific investments on new network elements

Constrained fuzzy power flow models with correlation between nodal injections

This paper extends the symmetric/constrained fuzzy powerflow models by including the potential correlations between nodal injections. Therefore, the extension of the model allows the specification of fuzzy generation and load values and of potential correlations between nodal injections. The enhanced version of the symmetric/constrained fuzzy powerflow model is applied to the 30-bus IEEE test system. The results prove the importance of the inclusion of data correlations in the analysis of transmission system adequacy.

Probabilistic Security Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow Models

In restructured power systems, generation and commercialization activities became market activities, while transmission and distribution activities continue as regulated monopolies. As a result, the adequacy of transmission network should be evaluated independent of generation system. After introducing the constrained fuzzy power flow (CFPF) as a suitable tool to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy 'reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity' (as stated, for instance, at European Directive 2009/72/EC), the aim is now showing how this approach can be used in conjunction with probabilistic criteria in security analysis. In classical security analysis models of power systems are considered the composite system (generation plus transmission). The state of system components is usually modeled with probabilities and loads (and generation) are modeled by crisp numbers, probability distributions or fuzzy numbers. In the case of CFPF the component’s failure of the transmission network have been investigated. In this framework, probabilistic methods are used for failures modeling of the transmission system components and possibility models are used to deal with 'reasonable demands'. The enhanced version of the CFPF model is applied to an illustrative case.

Applying fuzzy logic to comparative distribution modelling: a case study with two sympatric amphibians.

We modelled the distributions of two toads (Bufo bufo and Epidalea calamita) in the Iberian Peninsula using the favourability function, which makes predictions directly comparable for different species and allows fuzzy logic operations to relate different models. The fuzzy intersection between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of both species simultaneously, was compared with another favourability model built on the presences shared by both species. The fuzzy union between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of any of the two species, was compared with another favourabilitymodel based on the presences of either or both of them. The fuzzy intersections between favourability for each species and the complementary of favourability for the other (corresponding to the logical operation “A and not B”) were compared with models of exclusive presence of one species versus the exclusive presence of the other. The results of modelling combined species data were highly similar to those of fuzzy logic operations between individual models, proving fuzzy logic and the favourability function valuable for comparative distribution modelling. We highlight several advantages of fuzzy logic over other forms of combining distribution models, including the possibility to combine multiple species models for management and conservation planning.

Entrepreneurship rates the fuzzy-set approach

A fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis is applied to determine the necessary and sufficient conditions for higher entrepreneur rates. Based on Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data, it is shown that the most relevant conditions are Media Attention to Entrepreneurship, as well as Perceived Capabilities and Perceived Opportunities. The non-existence of Fear of Failure is also an important factor in determining higher entrepreneurship rates. When the sample is split, this condition is more important for most developed countries. This can be viewed as relevant information for policymakers to better define their policies to promote entrepreneurship, which is a key to more sustainable growth in countries.

What are the conditions for good innovation results? A fuzzy-set approach for European Union

Innovation is one of the main concerns of European Union countries since the beginning of the century. Despite failing to reach their targets, innovation remains a priority because innovation enables countries to achieve better economic performance. This study analyzes the relation between the level of innovation and the economic effects and applies a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to study the relation between six conditions and two different outcomes. The data comes from the Union Innovation Scoreboard. The study finds that research systems, linkages and entrepreneurship, and intellectual assets are necessary conditions for the outcomes of a high level of innovation and positive economic effects. The main sufficient condition for both outcomes is a good research system.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

Instituições de Ensino Superior e movimentos migratórios em Portugal: uma aplicação do método fuzzy

As Instituições de Ensino Superior (IES) localizam-se ao longo de todo o território português, em cidades de dimensão distinta mas sempre âncoras dos territórios envolventes. Um dos efeitos mais imediatos, entre os “efeitos de procura”, relaciona-se com a dimensão populacional das cidades onde as IES estão instaladas. Logo que todos os agentes diretamente envolvidos com a IES chegam à (permanecem na) cidade – funcionários docentes e não docentes e estudantes – provocam efeitos vários, quer pela dimensão demográfica (quer em termos de volume quer de estrutura) quer pelos efeitos multiplicadores na atividade económica. O enquadramento teórico deste estudo prende-se com duas teorias fundamentais: os estudos acerca dos impactes das IES e a teoria das migrações jovens. Esta investigação visa estudar a existência de correlações entre as cidades que acolhem as IES, estas instituições e os movimentos migratórios ao longo do país. As questões de investigação são as seguintes: a dimensão das IES está relacionada com a dimensão da cidade onde está instalada e a capacidade de atração de ambas é proporcional? Podem as IES servir para inverter os fluxos migratórios que se verificam com destino às cidades onde existem IES? Os objectivos do trabalho são: - relacionar a dimensão das IES com as cidades de acolhimento, bem como os respectivos níveis de atração; - estudar os fluxos migratórios, destacando os jovens do conjunto do total da população que se desloca para as cidades / concelhos onde existem IES. Utilizar-se-ão dados relativos i) aos estabelecimentos da rede pública, universitária e politécnica; ii) às migrações internas em Portugal por grupos de idades e, iii) caracterização das cidades de acolhimento das IES. Os dados serão analisados com métodos de estatística descritiva, multivariada e com a metodologia fuzzy que visa conhecer as condições necessárias e/ou suficientes da atratividade das cidades relativamente aos fluxos migratórios jovens.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

Data-stream driven Fuzzy-granular approaches for system maintenance

Intelligent systems are currently inherent to the society, supporting a synergistic human-machine collaboration. Beyond economical and climate factors, energy consumption is strongly affected by the performance of computing systems. The quality of software functioning may invalidate any improvement attempt. In addition, data-driven machine learning algorithms are the basis for human-centered applications, being their interpretability one of the most important features of computational systems. Software maintenance is a critical discipline to support automatic and life-long system operation. As most software registers its inner events by means of logs, log analysis is an approach to keep system operation. Logs are characterized as Big data assembled in large-flow streams, being unstructured, heterogeneous, imprecise, and uncertain. This thesis addresses fuzzy and neuro-granular methods to provide maintenance solutions applied to anomaly detection (AD) and log parsing (LP), dealing with data uncertainty, identifying ideal time periods for detailed software analyses. LP provides deeper semantics interpretation of the anomalous occurrences. The solutions evolve over time and are general-purpose, being highly applicable, scalable, and maintainable. Granular classification models, namely, Fuzzy set-Based evolving Model (FBeM), evolving Granular Neural Network (eGNN), and evolving Gaussian Fuzzy Classifier (eGFC), are compared considering the AD problem. The evolving Log Parsing (eLP) method is proposed to approach the automatic parsing applied to system logs. All the methods perform recursive mechanisms to create, update, merge, and delete information granules according with the data behavior. For the first time in the evolving intelligent systems literature, the proposed method, eLP, is able to process streams of words and sentences. Essentially, regarding to AD accuracy, FBeM achieved (85.64+-3.69)%; eGNN reached (96.17+-0.78)%; eGFC obtained (92.48+-1.21)%; and eLP reached (96.05+-1.04)%. Besides being competitive, eLP particularly generates a log grammar, and presents a higher level of model interpretability.

Unsupervised reinforcement learning via state entropy maximization

Reinforcement Learning (RL) provides a powerful framework to address sequential decision-making problems in which the transition dynamics is unknown or too complex to be represented. The RL approach is based on speculating what is the best decision to make given sample estimates obtained from previous interactions, a recipe that led to several breakthroughs in various domains, ranging from game playing to robotics. Despite their success, current RL methods hardly generalize from one task to another, and achieving the kind of generalization obtained through unsupervised pre-training in non-sequential problems seems unthinkable. Unsupervised RL has recently emerged as a way to improve generalization of RL methods. Just as its non-sequential counterpart, the unsupervised RL framework comprises two phases: An unsupervised pre-training phase, in which the agent interacts with the environment without external feedback, and a supervised fine-tuning phase, in which the agent aims to efficiently solve a task in the same environment by exploiting the knowledge acquired during pre-training. In this thesis, we study unsupervised RL via state entropy maximization, in which the agent makes use of the unsupervised interactions to pre-train a policy that maximizes the entropy of its induced state distribution. First, we provide a theoretical characterization of the learning problem by considering a convex RL formulation that subsumes state entropy maximization. Our analysis shows that maximizing the state entropy in finite trials is inherently harder than RL. Then, we study the state entropy maximization problem from an optimization perspective. Especially, we show that the primal formulation of the corresponding optimization problem can be (approximately) addressed through tractable linear programs. Finally, we provide the first practical methodologies for state entropy maximization in complex domains, both when the pre-training takes place in a single environment as well as multiple environments.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Nectar Robbery By A Hermit Hummingbird: Association To Floral Phenotype And Its Influence On Flowers And Network Structure.

Interactions between flowers and their visitors span the spectrum from mutualism to antagonism. The literature is rich in studies focusing on mutualism, but nectar robbery has mostly been investigated using phytocentric approaches focused on only a few plant species. To fill this gap, we studied the interactions between a nectar-robbing hermit hummingbird, Phaethornis ruber, and the array of flowers it visits. First, based on a literature review of the interactions involving  P. ruber, we characterized the association of floral larceny to floral phenotype. We then experimentally examined the effects of nectar robbing on nectar standing crop and number of visits of the pollinators to the flowers of Canna paniculata. Finally, we asked whether the incorporation of illegitimate interactions into the analysis affects plant-hummingbird network structure. We identified 97 plant species visited by P. ruber and found that P. ruber engaged in floral larceny in almost 30 % of these species. Nectar robbery was especially common in flowers with longer corolla. In terms of the effect on C. paniculata, the depletion of nectar due to robbery by P. ruber was associated with decreased visitation rates of legitimate pollinators. At the community level, the inclusion of the illegitimate visits of P. ruber resulted in modifications of how modules within the network were organized, notably giving rise to a new module consisting of P. ruber and mostly robbed flowers. However, although illegitimate visits constituted approximately 9 % of all interactions in the network, changes in nestedness, modularity, and network-level specialization were minor. Our results indicate that although a flower robber may have a strong effect on the pollination of a particular plant species, the inclusion of its illegitimate interactions has limited capacity to change overall network structure.

Encephalization And Diversification Of The Cranial Base In Platyrrhine Primates.

The cranial base, composed of the midline and lateral basicranium, is a structurally important region of the skull associated with several key traits, which has been extensively studied in anthropology and primatology. In particular, most studies have focused on the association between midline cranial base flexion and relative brain size, or encephalization. However, variation in lateral basicranial morphology has been studied less thoroughly. Platyrrhines are a group of primates that experienced a major evolutionary radiation accompanied by extensive morphological diversification in Central and South America over a large temporal scale. Previous studies have also suggested that they underwent several evolutionarily independent processes of encephalization. Given these characteristics, platyrrhines present an excellent opportunity to study, on a large phylogenetic scale, the morphological correlates of primate diversification in brain size. In this study we explore the pattern of variation in basicranial morphology and its relationship with phylogenetic branching and with encephalization in platyrrhines. We quantify variation in the 3D shape of the midline and lateral basicranium and endocranial volumes in a large sample of platyrrhine species, employing high-resolution CT-scans and geometric morphometric techniques. We investigate the relationship between basicranial shape and encephalization using phylogenetic regression methods and calculate a measure of phylogenetic signal in the datasets. The results showed that phylogenetic structure is the most important dimension for understanding platyrrhine cranial base diversification; only Aotus species do not show concordance with our molecular phylogeny. Encephalization was only correlated with midline basicranial flexion, and species that exhibit convergence in their relative brain size do not display convergence in lateral basicranial shape. The evolution of basicranial variation in primates is probably more complex than previously believed, and understanding it will require further studies exploring the complex interactions between encephalization, brain shape, cranial base morphology, and ecological dimensions acting along the species divergence process.

Estimativa de bem-estar de frango de corte em função da concentração de amônia e grau de luminosidade no galpão de produção

Brazil is an important poultry meat export country, and large parts of its destination are countries with specific rearing restrictions related to broiler s welfare. One of the aerial pollutants mostly found in high concentrations in closed poultry housing environment is ammonia. There are evidences that broilers welfare may be compromised by the continuous exposition to this pollutant in rearing housing. This research aimed to estimate broilers welfare reared under specific thermal environmental attributes and bird s density, as function of the ammonia concentration and light intensity inside the housing environment using the Fuzzy Theory. Results showed that the best welfare value (0.89 in the scale: 0-1) approximately 90% of the ideal was found in the conditions that associated the ideal thermal environment, with bird s density between 13-15 birds m-2, with values of the ammonia concentration in the environment below 5 ppm, and light intensity near 1 lx. Using the predictive method it was possible to estimate broilers welfare with relation to the ammonia concentration and light intensity in the housing.