Using the moving window incorporated neural network to forecast the population behavior of Nostocales spp. in the River Darling, Australia

The paper demonstrates the nonstationarity of algal population behaviors by analyzing the historical populations of Nostocales spp. in the River Darling, Australia. Freshwater ecosystems are more likely to be nonstationary, instead of stationary. Nonstationarity implies that only the near past behaviors could forecast the near future for the system. However, nonstionarity was not considered seriously in previous research efforts for modeling and predicting algal population behaviors. Therefore the moving window technique was incorporated with radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) approach to deal with nonstationarity when modeling and forecasting the population behaviors of Nostocales spp. in the River Darling. The results showed that the RBFNN model could predict the timing and magnitude of algal blooms of Nostocales spp. with high accuracy. Moreover, a combined model based on individual RBFNN models was implemented, which showed superiority over the individual RBFNN models. Hence, the combined model was recommended for the modeling and forecasting of the phytoplankton populations, especially for the forecasting.

一个改进的随机动力学水平衡模型及其应用研究Ⅱ.应用

本文用黄土高原长武农业生态试验站的冬小麦长期定位试验资料对改进的随机动力学水平衡模型进行了准确性检验 .从模型对参数反映的敏感性分析和模型计算值与数值模型WAVES的比较 ,以及模型对黄土区旱作高生产力的水分环境效应的评价结果 ,均证明改进的随机动力学水平衡模型能比较准确地预测一定生产力水平、特定生态系统平衡体系水均衡要素的定量分配和土壤含水量的动态变化 .

incremental learning of triadic plsa for collaborative filtering

Beijing University of Technology (BJUT); Beijing Municipal Lab of Brain Informatics; Chinese Society of Radiology; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs

基于多重分形的水泥回转窑工况识别研究

鉴于多重分形理论在定量描述复杂系统非线性运行规律方面具有的独特优势,将多重分形理论引入到工况特征识别研究中来,确认了水泥回转窑窑电流信号的多重分形特性。在此基础上,研究了窑电流多重分形谱参数随工况变化的情况,发现多重分形谱参数的变化趋势与回转窑内工况状态的变化趋势之间具有较强的关联性,进而提出了基于多重分形谱参数进行水泥回转窑异常工况特征提取的新方法,为水泥生产过程中工况状态的在线监控和预报提供了有力支持。

财政预测模型研究及应用

采用多种科学预测方法与财政经济实际相结合的方式建立了一个综合的财政收支系统动力学模型．这个模型集中了时间序列分析模型，灰色系统预测模型的参数综合性强和系统动力学模型结构分明，用动态反馈方式预测系统发展变化的特点，对东北两大城市预算内财政收支“八五”计划指标进行了全面定量的预测与分析，得到了很好的应用效果。

随机系统模型参数在线辨识的一种算法及负荷预报

本文提出了一种简化的多变量随机系统状态模型参数在线辨识方法。与最小二乘自适应递推算法比较,不仅需要辨识的参数减少,而且针对一类模型参数缓慢变化的系统,可以通过选择不同的遗忘因子序列来控制参数变化的幅度,解决了电力系统负荷预报中季节模型的老化问题。本方法基于带有随机噪声状态模型的典范型,大大节省了计算机的运算量和存贮容量,适于微处理机的在线应用。

随机系统辨识在电力系统负荷预报中的应用

本文将随机系统状态模型辨识技术用于电力系统负荷预报。首先根据负荷的一系列历史数据建立负荷的状态空间模型,然后用滤波算法进行次日负荷预报,最后用电网实际数据在 PDP-11/23计算机上进行预报计算,得到比较满意的结果。

全信息精细储层预测方法研究与实践-以周清庄油田沙三段油藏为例

With the continuously proceeding of petroleum exploratory development in China, exploratory development becomes more and more difficult. For increasing reserve volume and production, lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir has been the most workable, potential and universality exploration targets. In the past, Dagang Oil Field use the complicated fault reservoir theory as the guide, develop and form a suit of matching construction and instrument in prospecting complicated fault reservoir that reach top of exploration industry in China. But the research of lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir is not much, which affects the exploitation progress of lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir. In this thesis, is object, through the depth study of lithologic deposition in Shasan segment of Zhouqingzhuang Oil Field, a suit of holographic fine reservoir bed forecasting techniques is built up and finally gets following main results: 1. Applying geology, seism, drilling, logging and other information to sensitivity preferences, geological model, inversion and integrated stratum evaluation, realizing the method and flow of refined multi-information stratum forecast. 2. Built up a full three dimensional fine structural interpretation method: in view of r problem of accurately demarcating 90% inclined well, propose a inclined well air space demarcating method, make bed demarcating more exactly; in view of problem of faults demarcating and combination in seismic interpretation, propose a computational method of seismic interference based on wavelet translation, make identify the fault in different level more dependable and reasonable; for exactly identifying structural attitude, propose a velocity modeling method under multi-well restriction, make structural attitude closer to the facts. 3. Built up a high accuracy reservoir bed inversion method: in view of problem in exactly identifying reservoir and nonreservoir with conventional wave impedance inversion method in this place, propose a reservoir log response characteristic analysis and sensible log parameter inversion method. ①analysis log response of reservoir and nonreservoir in region of interest, make definite the most sensible log parameter in identifying reservoir and nonreservoir in this region; ②make sensible log parameter inversion based on wave impedance inversion, to improve inversion accuracy, the thickness of recognizable reservoir bed reach 4-5m. 4. Built up a 4-D reservoir forcasting circuit: in view of difficulty that in lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir making reservoir space characteristic clear by using structural map and reservoir forecasting techniques once only, propose a 4-D reservoir forcasting circuit. In other words, based on development conceptual design, forcast reservoir of different time, namely multiple 3D reservoir forcasting in time queue, each time the accuracy degree of reservoir forcasting is improved since apply the new well material, thereby achieve high quality and highly efficient in exploratory development. During exploratory development lithologic depositin in Shasan segment of Zhouqingzhuang Oil Field, there are thirteen wells get 100% success rate, which sufficiently proves that this suit of method is scientific and effective.

黄骅坳陷港西开发区河流相储层构型与剩余油分布模式研究

In the production tail of oilfield, water-cut is very high in thick channel sand oil reservoir, but recovery efficiency is relative low, and recoverable remaining oil reserves is more abundant, so these reserves is potential target of additional development. The remaining oil generally distributed with accumulation in certain areas, controlled by the reservoir architecture that mainly is the lateral accretion shale beddings in the point bar, so the study of reservoir architecture and the remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by architecture are very significant. In this paper, taking the Minghuazhen formation of Gangxi oilfield as a case, using the method of hierarchy analysis, pattern fitting and multidimensional interaction, the architecture of the meandering river reservoir is precisely anatomized, and the remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by the different hierarchy architecture are summarized, which will help to guide the additional development of oil fields. Not only is the study significant to the remaining oil forecasting, but also it is important for the theory development of reservoir geology. With the knowledge of sequence correlation and fluvial correlation model, taking many factors into account, such as combination of well and seismic data, hierarchical controlling, sedimentary facies restraint, performance verification and 3-D closure, an accurate sequence frame of the study area was established. On the basis of high-resolution stratigraphic correlation, single layer and oil sand body are correlated within this frame, and four architecture hierarchies, composite channel, single channels, point bars and lateral accretion sandbody are identified, The result indicates that Minghuazhen Formation of Gangxi oilfield are dominated by meandering river deposition, including two types of channel sandbodies, narrow band and wide band channel sandbody, and each of them has different characteristics of facies variation laterally. Based on the identification of composite channel, according to the spatial combination patterns and identified signs of single channel, combined with channel sandbody distribution and tracer material data, single channel sandbodies are identified. According to empirical formula, point-bar scales of the study area are predicted, and three identification signs are summarized, that is, positive rhythm in depositional sequence, the maximum thick sand and near close to the abandoned channel, and point bars are identified. On the basis of point bar recognition, quantitative architecture models inner point bar are ascertained, taking the lateral accretion sand body and lateral accretion shale beddings in single well as foundation, and quantitative architecture models inner point bar as guidance, and result of tracer material data as controlling, the the lateral accretion sand body and lateral accretion shale beddings are forecasted interwell, so inner architecture of point bar is anatomied. 3-D structural model, 3-D facies model and 3-D petrophysical properties models are set up, spatial distribution characteristics of sedimentary facies and petrophysical properties is reappeared. On the basis of reservoir architecture analysis and performance production data, remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by different hierarchy architecture units, stacked channel, single channel and inner architecture of point bar, are summarized, which will help to guide the additional development of oil fields.

渤海海域河流相油藏精细描述技术及应用研究

Aiming at the character of Bohaii Sea area and the heterogeneity of fluvial facies reservoir, litho-geophysics experiments and integrated research of geophysical technologies are carried out. To deal with practical problems in oil fields of Bohai area, such as QHD32-6, Southern BZ25-1 and NP35-2 et al., technology of reservoir description based on seismic data and reservoir geophysical methods is built. In this dissertation, three points are emphasized: ①the integration of multidiscipline; ②the application of new methods and technologies; ③the integration of quiescent and dynamic data. At last, research of geology modeling and reservoir numerical simulation based on geophysical data are integrated. There are several innovative results and conclusion in this dissertation: (1)To deal with problems in shallow sea area where seismic data is the key data, a set of technologies for fine reservoir description based on seismic data in Bohai Sea area are built. All these technologies, including technologies of stratigraphic classification, sedimentary facies identification, structure fine characterization, reservoir description, fluid recognition and integration of geological modeling& reservoir numerical simulation, play an important role in the hydrocarbon exploration and development. In the research of lithology and hydrocarbon-bearing condition, petrophysical experiment is carried out. Outdoors inspection and experiment test data are integrated in seismic forward modeling& inversion research. Through the research, the seismic reflection rules of fluid in porosity are generated. Based on all the above research, seismic data is used to classify rock association, identify sedimentary facies belts and recognition hydrocarbon-bearing condition of reservoir. In this research, the geological meaning of geophysical information is more clear and the ambiguity of geophysical information is efficiently reduced, so the reliability in hydrocarbon forecasting is improved. The methods of multi-scales are developed in microfacies research aiming at the condition of shallow sea area in Bohai Sea: ① make the transformation from seismic information to sedimentary facies reality by discriminant analysis; ②in research of planar sedimentary facies, make microfacies research on seismic scale by technologies integration of seismic multi-attributes analysis& optimization, strata slicing and seismic waveform classification; ③descript the sedimentary facies distribution on scales below seismic resolution with the method of stochastic modeling. In the research of geological modeling and reservoir numerical simulation, the way of bilateral iteration between modeling and numerical simulation is carried out in the geological model correction. This process include several steps: ①make seismic forward modeling based on the reservoir numerical simulation results and geological models; ②get trend residual of forward modeling and real seismic data; ③make dynamic correction of the model according to the above trend residual. The modern integration technology of reservoir fine description research in Bohai Sea area, which is developed in this dissertation, is successfully used in (1)the reserve volume evaluation and development research in BZ25-1 oil field and (2)the tracing while drilling research in QHD32-6 oil field. These application researches show wide application potential in hydrocarbon exploration and development research in other oil fields.

降雨条件下碎石土滑坡稳定性研究

Debris Landslide is one of the types of landslides with the widest distribution, largest quantity, and the closest relationship with engineering construction. It is also one of the most important types of landslides that can cause disaster. This kind of landslide often occurs in the loose slopes which are made up of loose congeries formed by earth filling, residual soil, slope wash, dilapidation, landslide or full weathered material of hard rock. Rainfall is always the chief inducing factor of debris Landslide. Therefore, to research stability of debris Landslide during rainfall not only has important theoretical significance for understanding developing law and deformation and failure mechanism of debris landslide, but also has important practical significance for investigating, appraising, forecasting, preventing and controlling debris landslides. This thesis systematically summarized the relationships between rainfall and landslide, the method to survey water table in the landslides, the deformation and failure mechanism of debris landslide, and the progress in the stability analysis of landslides based on the analyses of data collected widely at home and abroad. The problems in the study of the stability of debris landslide during rainfall was reviewed and discussed. Due to the complicated geological conditions and the random rainfall conditions, the research on the landslides' stability must be based on engineering geological qualitative analysis. Through the collection of the data about the Panxi region and the Three Gorges Reservoir region, the author systematically summarized the engineering geological conditions, hydro-geological condition, distribution characteristics of stress field in the slope, physical and mechanical properties and hydro-mechanical properties of debris. In the viewpoint of dynamics of soil water and hydromechanics, physical process of rainfall to supply groundwater of debris landslides can be divided into two phases, i.e. non-saturated steady infiltrating phase and saturated unsteady supplying phase. The former can be described by mathematical model of surface water infiltration while the latter can be described by equivalent continuous medium model of groundwater seepage. With regard to specific hydrological geology system, we can obtain the dynamic variation law of water content, water table, landslide stability of rock and soil mass, along with quantity and duration of rainfall after the boundary condition on hydrological geology has been ascertained. This is a new way to study the response law of groundwater in the landslides during rainfall. After wet face of rock and soil mass connects with ground water table, the raising of water table will occur due to the supply of rainfall. Then interaction between ground water and rock and soil mass will occur, such as the action of physics, water, chemistry and mechanics, which caused the decrease of shearing strength of sliding zone. According to the action of groundwater on rock and soil mass, a concise mechanical model of debris landslide’s deformation was established during rainfall. The static equilibrium condition of landslide mass system was achieved according to the concise mechanical model, and then the typical deformation and failure process and failure mode of debris landslide during rainfall were discussed. In this thesis, the former limiting equilibrium slice method was modified and improved based on shearing strength theory of , a stability analysis program of debris landslide was established and developed taking account of the saturated-unsaturated seepage, by introducing the shearing strength theory of unsaturated soil mass made by (1978). The program has reasonable data storage and simple interface and is easy to operate, and can be perfectly used to carry out sensitivity analysis of influencing factors of landslides' stability, integrated with the program of Office Excel. The design of drainage engineering are always bases on empirical methods and is short of effective quantitative analysis and appraise, therefore, the conception of critical water table of debris landslide was put forward. For debris landslides with different kinds of slide face in the engineering practice, a program to search the critical water table of debris landslide was developed based on native groundwater table. And groundwater table in the slope should be declined below the critical water table in the drainage works, so the program can be directly used to guide drainage works in the debris landslide. Taking the slope deformation body in the back of former factory building of Muli Shawan hydroelectric power station as an example, a systematic and detailed research on debris landslides' stability during rainfall was researched systematically, the relationship among quantity of rainfall, water table and stability of slope was established, the debris landslides' stability in process of rainfall from dynamic viewpoint was analyzed and researched.

奇异性分析方法及其在储层预测中的应用研究

In research field of oil geophysical prospecting, reservoir prediction is refers to forecasting physical properties of petroleum reservoir by using data of seismic and well logging, it is a research which can guide oil field development. Singularities of seismic and logging data are caused by the heterogeneity of reservoir physical property. It's one of important methods that using singularity characteristics of seismic and logging data to study the reservoir physical property in recently. Among them, realization of reservoir quantitative prediction by analyzing singularity of the data and enhancing transition description of data is difficulty in method research. Based on wavelet transform and the fractal theory, the paper studied the singularity judgment criterion for seismic and logging data, not only analyzed quantitative relation between singularity data and reservoir physical property, but also applied it in practical reservoir prediction. The main achievements are: 1. A new method which provides singular points and their strength information estimation at only one single scale is proposed by Herrmann (1999). Based on that, the dissertation proposed modified algorithm which realized singularity polarity detection. 2. The dissertation introduced onset function to generalize the traditional geologic boundaries variations model which used singularity characteristics to represent the abruptness of the lithologic velocity transition. We show that singularity analysis reveals generic singularity information conducted from velocity or acoustic impedance to seismogram based on the convolution seismic-model theory. Theory and applications indicated that singularity information calculated from seismic data was a natural attribute for delineating stratigraphy boundaries due to its excellent ability in detecting detailed geologic features. We demonstrated that singularity analysis was a powerful tool to delineate stratigraphy boundaries and inverse acoustic impedance and velocity. 3. The geologic significances of logging data singularity information were also presented. According to our analysis, the positions of singularities indicate the sequence stratigraphic boundary, and there is subtle relationship between the singularity strength and sedimentary environment, meanwhile the singularity polarity used to recognize stratigraphic base-level cycle. Based on all those above, a new method which provided sedimentary cycle analysis based on the singularity information of logging data in multiple scales was proposed in this dissertation. This method provided a quantitative tool for judging interface of stratum sequence and achieved good results in the actual application.