Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Starburst in the ultraluminous galaxy Arp 220: Constraints from observations of radio recombination lines and continuum

We present observations of radio recombination lines (RRL) from the starburst galaxy Arp 220 at 8.1 GHz (H92 alpha) and 1.4 GHz (H167 alpha and H165 alpha) and at 84 GHz (H42 alpha), 96 GHz (H40 alpha) and 207 GHz (H31 alpha) using the Very Large Array and the IRAM 30 m telescope, respectively. RRLs were detected at all the frequencies except 1.4 GHz, where a sensitive upper limit was obtained. We also present continuum flux measurements at these frequencies as well as at 327 MHz made with the VLA. The continuum spectrum, which has a spectral index alpha similar to -0.6 (S-nu proportional to nu(alpha)) between 5 and 10 GHz, shows a break near 1.5 GHz, a prominent turnover below 500 MHz, and a flatter spectral index above 50 GHz. We show that a model with three components of ionized gas with different densities and area covering factors can consistently explain both RRL and continuum data. The total mass of ionized gas in the three components is 3.2 x 10(7) M., requiring 3 x 10(5) O5 stars with a total Lyman continuum production rate N-Lyc similar to 1.3 x 10(55) photons s(-1). The ratio of the expected to observed Br alpha and Br gamma fluxes implies a dust extinction A(V) similar to 45 mag. The derived Lyman continuum photon production rate implies a continuous star formation rate (SFR) averaged over the lifetime of OB stars of similar to 240 M yr(-1). The Lyman continuum photon Production rate of similar to 3% associated with the high-density H II regions implies a similar SFR at recent epochs (t < 10(5) yr). An alternative model of high-density gas, which cannot be excluded on the basis of the available data, predicts 10 times higher SFR at recent epochs. If confirmed, this model implies that star formation in Arp 220 consists of multiple starbursts of very high SFR (few times 10(3) M. yr(-1)) and short duration (similar to 10(5) yr). The similarity of IR excess, L-IR/L-Ly alpha similar to 24, in Arp 220 to values observed in starburst galaxies shows that most of the high luminosity of Arp 220 is due to the ongoing starburst rather than to a hidden active galactic nucleus (AGN). A comparison of the IR excesses in Arp 220, the Galaxy, and M33 indicates that the starburst in Arp 220 has an initial mass function that is similar to that in normal galaxies and has a duration longer than 107 yr. If there was no infall of gas during this period, then the star formation efficiency (SFE) in Arp 220 is similar to 50%. The high SFR and SFE in Arp 220 is consistent with their known dependences on mass and density of gas in star-forming regions of normal galaxies.

Hills, dams and forests. Some field observations from the Western Ghats

Man’s attempts to intensify the use of natural resources can often result in the exhaustion of the resource or deterioration of other interacting resources. The single-minded pursuit of the development of the water resources of the rivers of the Western Ghats shows many examples of this view, particularly in the unnecessary destruction of the dwindling forest resources. This destruction may be caused by (i) problems o f rehabilitation, e.g. the Ramanagar settlement of the Kalinadi project (ii) the impact of labourers, e.g. the destruction of evergreen sholas on the Upper Nilgiri plateau (iii) the access to encroachers and poachers, e.g. Panshet and Kalinadi (iv) faulty planning, e.g. Linganamakki and Kalinadi. This destruction of forest cover has had a number of deleterious consequences in (i) worsening the shortages of forest resources, (ii) hastening the siltation of the reservoirs, (iii) ecological imbalances as in the rapid spread ofEupatorium in the Kalinadi project area and (iv) the decimation of biological diversity, as in the great reduction of evergreen forests in the Western Ghats, threatening the survival of lion-tailed macaque and the extinction of grass species,Hubbardia heptaneuron. It is stressed that the only sustainable and therefore true development is environmentally sound development. The interests of the weaker sections of the society often provide a good index of the soundness of the development from an environmental point of view. The planning of the development process with this perspective is a great scientific and technological challenge that must be taken up.

Critical age-dependent branching Markov processes and their scaling limits

This paper studies:(i)the long-time behaviour of the empirical distribution of age and normalized position of an age-dependent critical branching Markov process conditioned on non-extinction;and (ii) the super-process limit of a sequence of age-dependent critical branching Brownian motions.

Hydropower Project Design Incorporating Submergence Costs

Submergence of land is a major impact of large hydropower projects. Such projects are often also dogged by siltation, delays in construction and heavy debt burdens-factors that are not considered in the project planning exercise. A simple constrained optimization model for the benefit~ost analysis of large hydropower projects that considers these features is proposed. The model is then applied to two sites in India. Using the potential productivity of an energy plantation on the submergible land is suggested as a reasonable approach to estimating the opportunity cost of submergence. Optimum project dimensions are calculated for various scenarios. Results indicate that the inclusion of submergence cost may lead to a substanual reduction in net present value and hence in project viability. Parameters such as project lifespan, con$truction time, discount rate and external debt burden are also of significance. The designs proposed by the planners are found to be uneconomic, whIle even the optimal design may not be viable for more typical scenarios. The concept of energy opportunity cost is useful for preliminary screening; some projects may require more detailed calculations. The optimization approach helps identify significant trade-offs between energy generation and land availability.

Nota sullo status della gallina prataiola (Tetrax tetrax) nella Zona di Protezione Speciale Piana di Semestene, Bonorva, Macomer e Bortigali (Sardegna), 2007-2009

The little bustard Tetrax tetrax is a bird of agro-pastoral landscapes rapidly disappearing from most of Western Europe due to agricultural intensification. In Italy, the species is virtually extinct from the mainland but still occurs in Sardinia, where four Special Protection Areas (SPAs) have been designated in 2007 to protect the bustard and related habitat. In this note, we document a steep decline (between 50 and 87,5%) of the species during the last decade in one of those four SPAs, Plains of Semestene, Bonorva, Macomer and Bortigali. However, during summer 2009, a group of 17 individuals was found within the SPA, confirming that the species, although at low numbers (5-15 displaying males), still breeds successfully in the area. Potential limiting factors are also discussed. We urge to undertake conservation measures based on solid scientific evidence if the local population is to be saved from probable extinction in the near future.

Terahertz Time Domain Spectroscopy to Detect Low-Frequency Vibrations of Double-Walled Carbon Nanotubes

We have measured the frequency-dependent real index of refraction and extinction coefficient (and hence the complex dielectric function) of a free-standing double-walled carbon nanotube film of thickness 200 nm by using terahertz time domain spectroscopy in the frequency range 0.1 to 2.5 THz. The real index of refraction and extinction coefficient have very high values of approximately 52 and 35, respectively, at 0.1 THz, which decrease at higher frequencies. Two low-frequency phonon modes of the carbon nanotubes at 0.45 and 0.75 THz were clearly observed for the first time in the real and imaginary parts of the complex dielectric function along with a broad resonance centred at around 1.45 THz, the latter being similar to that in single-walled carbon nanotubes assigned to electronic excitations. Our experiments bring out a possible application of double-walled carbon nanotube films as a neutral density filter in the THz range.

Optical properties of activated reactive evaporated TiO2 films

This paper discusses the optical properties of single-layer TiO2 films deposited using an activated reactive evaporation process. The combined effects of substrate temperature (in the range 70–200 °C) and discharge currents (0–400 mA) on refractive index, extinction coefficient and packing density of these films are investigated. Significant changes in refractive index values have been observed with increases in substrate temperature and discharge current. The change in refractive index is correlated with the variation in packing density. The variation in extinction coefficient was reduced using the combined effects of substrate temperature and discharge currents. A comparison with films deposited in neutral oxygen has also been made.

dc reactive magnetron sputtering of titanium‐structural and optical characterization of TiO2 films

This paper deals with the reactive sputtering of titanium in an argon and oxygen mixture. The variation in cathode potential as a function of oxygen partial pressure has been explained in terms of cathode poisoning effects. The titania films deposited during this process have been studied for their structural and optical characteristics. The effect of substrate temperature (from 25 to 400 °C) and annealing (from 250 to 700 °C) on the packing density, refractive index, extinction coefficient, and crystallinity has been investigated. The refractive index varied from 2.24 to 2.46 and extinction coefficient from 2.6 × 10-3 to 10.4× 10-3 at 500 nm as the substrate temperature increased from 25 to 400 °C. The refractive index increased from 2.19 to 2.35 and extinction coefficient changed from 3.2× 10-3 to 11.6 × 10-3 at 500 nm as the annealing temperature was increased from 250 to 700 °C. Anatase and rutile phases have been observed in the films deposited at 400 °C substrate temperature and annealed at 300 °C. The changes in the optical constants at higher substrate temperature have been attributed to an increase in packing density, oxygen content, and crystallinity of the films.

Effect of substrate temperature on the properties of ZrO2 films prepared by d.c. reactive magnetron sputtering

Studies of ZrO2 films prepared by d.c. reactive magnetron sputtering are described. The effects of substrate temperature on the packing density, refractive index, extinction coefficient and crystallinity phase have been investigated in the temperature range 25–450 °C. The refractive index varied from 1.84 to 1.95 and extinction coefficient from 2 × 10−3 to 9.6 × 10−3. This was explained on the basis of an increase in packing density from 0.686 to 0.813. The change in packing density has been attributed to a decrease in the oxygen condensation at higher temperatures. Annealing results in a decrease in refractive index and increase in extinction coefficient. The films deposited at 150 °C showed a monoclinic phase which transforms to a tetragonal phase at higher substrate temperatures.

Effects of thermal annealing on the properties of zirconia films prepared by ion-assisted deposition

The effect of thermal annealing in the range 300–800 °C on the properties of zirconia films prepared by ion assisted deposition was studied. It was found that at low temperature the cubic phase is formed. This phase is stable up to 700 °C. All the films exhibit a monophasic monoclinic structure at 800 °C. The stress, estimated from X-ray patterns, shows a transition from tensile to compressive with increasing ion fluence. The refractive index and extinction coefficient do not seem to change appreciably up to 700 °C, showing a marked degradation thereafter. Single step annealing to the highest temperature was found to result in better stability than multistep annealing.

Properties of ion assisted deposited titania films

Thin films of titanium dioxide have been deposited using ion assisted deposition with oxygen ions in the energy range 100�500 eV and current densities up to 100 ?A/cm2. It has been observed that the refractive index of the films increases up to 300 eV and the extinction coefficient increased only nominally up to 300 eV. Optical band gap calculations have shown a strong dependence of the gap on the energy of incident ions. Beyond a critical energy and current density of the ions the refractive index and extinction coefficient of the films start deteriorating. It has also been found that beyond the critical values the optical band gap value decreases. The maximum refractive index obtained was 2.49 at an energy of 300 eV and 50 ?A/cm2 current density. Post?deposition annealing of the films at 500?°C resulted in a slight increase in refractive index without affecting the extinction coefficient. X?ray diffraction studies revealed a monophasic anatase structure in these films. ?

Spectroscopic Studies on Silver Selenide Thin Films

Silver selenide thin films of thickness between 80 nm and 160 nm were prepared by thermal evaporation technique at a high vacuum better than 2x10(-5)mbar on well cleaned glass substrates at a deposition rate of 0.2 nm/sec. Silver selenide thin films were polycrystalline with orthorhombic structure. Ellipsometric spectra of silver selenide thin films have been recorded in the wavelength range between 300 nm and 700 nm. Optical constants like refractive index, extinction coefficient, absorption coefficient, and optical band gap of silver selenide thin film have been calculated from the recorded spectra. The refractive index of silver selenide has been found to vary between 1.9 and 3.2 and the extinction coefficient varies from 0.5 to 1.6 with respect to their corresponding thickness of the films. Transmittance spectra of these films have been recorded in the wavelength range between 300 nm and 900 nm and its spectral data are analysed. The photoluminescence studies have been carried out on silver selenide thin films and the strong emission peak is found around 1.7 eV. The calculated optical band of thermally evaporated silver selenide thin films is found to be around 1.7 eV from their Ellipsometric, UV-Visible and Photoluminescence spectroscopic studies.

Star formation in giant extragalactic H II regions

Star formation properties in Giant Extragalactic H II Regions (GEHRs) are investigated using optical photometry and evolutionary population synthesis models. Photometric data in $BVR$ bands and in the emission line of H-alpha are obtained by CCD imaging at Vainu Bappu Observatory, Kavalur. Aperture photometry is performed for 180 GEHRs in galaxies NGC 1365, 1566, 2366, 2903, 2997, 3351, 4303, 4449, 4656 and 5253. Thirty six of these GEHRs having published spectroscopic data are studied for star formation properties. The population synthesis model is constructed based on Maeder's stellar evolutionary and Kurucz stellar atmosphere models, to synthesize observational quantities of embedded clusters in GEHRs. The observed H-alpha luminosity is a measure of the number of massive stars while the contribution to BVR bands is from intermediate mass (5-15 solar mass) stars when the cluster is young and from evolving supergiants when the cluster is old (age >/= 6~Myr). Differential reddening between gas and embedded stars is essential to constrain the dereddened cluster colors within the range of youngest clusters. Obscuring dust closely associated with gas, which is distributed in filaments and clumps, as in the case of 30 Doradus, is the most likely configuration giving rise to net reduction of extinction towards stars. The fraction of the stellar photons escaping the nebula unattenuated is estimated to be 50%. GEHRs are rarely found to be simple systems containing stars from single generation. In the present sample such regions in addition to being older than 3~Myr, have their Lyman continuum luminosity reduced by as much as 60%, compared to the observed $B$ band luminosity for a normal IMF. The missing ionizing photons may be escaping the nebula, leading to the ionization of extra-H II region ionized medium. Co-existence of young (age

Synthesis and properties of zirconia thin films

Thin films of zirconia have been synthesized using reactive DC magnetron sputtering. It has been found that films with good optical constants, high refractive index (1.9 at 600 nm) and low extinction coefficient can be prepared al ambient temperatures. The optical constants and band gnp and hence the composition nle dependent on the deposition parameters such as target power, rate of deposition and oxygen background pressure. Thermal annealing of the films revealed that tile films showed optical and crystalline inhomogeneity and also large variations in optical constants.