The conserved quantity theory of causation and chance raising

In this paper I offer an 'integrating account' of singular causation, where the term 'integrating' refers to the following program for analysing causation. There are two intuitions about causation, both of which face serious counterexamples when used as the basis for an analysis of causation. The 'process' intuition, which says that causes and effects are linked by concrete processes, runs into trouble with cases of misconnections', where an event which serves to prevent another fails to do so on a particular occasion and yet the two events are linked by causal processes. The chance raising intuition, according to which causes raise the chance of their effects, easily accounts for misconnections but faces the problem of chance lowering causes, a problem easily accounted for by the process approach. The integrating program attempts to provide an analysis of singular causation by synthesising the two insights, so as to solve both problems. In this paper I show that extant versions of the integrating program due to Eells, Lewis, and Menzies fail to account for the chance-lowering counterexample. I offer a new diagnosis of the chance lowering case, and use that as a basis for an integrating account of causation which does solve both cases. In doing so, I accept various assumptions of the integrating program, in particular that there are no other problems with these two approaches. As an example of the process account, I focus on the recent CQ theory of Wesley Salmon (1997).

Life-history consequences of divergent selection on egg size in Drosophila melanogaster

Life histories are generally assumed to evolve via antagonistic pleiotropy (negative genetic correlations) among traits, and trade-offs between life-history traits are typically studied using either phenotypic manipulations or selection experiments. We investigated the trade-off between egg size and fecundity in Drosophila melanogaster by examining both the phenotypic and genetic relationships between these traits after artificial selection for large and small eggs, relative to female body size. Egg size responded strongly to selection in both directions, increasing in the large-egg selected lines and decreasing in the small-egg selected lines. Phenotypic correlations between egg size and fecundity in the large-egg selected lines were negative, but no relationship between these traits occurred in either the control or small-egg selected lines. There was no negative genetic correlation between egg size and fecundity. Total reproductive allocation decreased in the small-egg selected lines but did not increase in the large-egg lines. Our results have three implications. First, our selection procedure may have forced females selected for large eggs into a physiological trade-off not reflected in a negative genetic correlation between these traits. Second, the lack of a negative genetic correlation between egg size and number suggests that the phenotypic trade-off frequently observed between egg size and number in other organisms may not evolve over the short term via a direct genetic trade-off whereby increases in egg size are automatically accompanied by decreased fecundity. Finally, total reproductive allocation may not evolve independently of egg size as commonly assumed.

Grazers and diggers: Exploitation competition and coexistence among foragers with different feeding strategies on a single resource

A mathematical model is presented that describes a system where two consumer species compete exploitatively for a single renewable resource. The resource is distributed in a patchy but homogeneous environment; that is, all patches are intrinsically identical. The two consumer species are referred to as diggers and grazers, where diggers deplete the resource within a patch to lower densities than grazers. We show that the two distinct feeding strategies can produce a heterogeneous resource distribution that enables their coexistence. Coexistence requires that grazers must either move faster than diggers between patches or convert the resources to population growth much more efficiently than diggers. The model shows that the functional form of resource renewal within a patch is also important for coexistence. These results contrast with theory that considers exploitation competition for a single resource when the resource is assumed to be well mixed throughout the system.

Unifying principles in terrestrial locomotion: Do hopping Australian marsupials fit in?

Mammalian terrestrial locomotion has many unifying principles. However, the Macropodoidea are a particularly interesting group that exhibit a number of significant deviations from the principles that seem to apply to other mammals. While the properties of materials that comprise the musculoskeletal system of mammals are similar, evidence suggests that tendon properties in macropodoid marsupials may be size or function dependent, in contrast to the situation in placental mammals. Postural differences related to hopping versus running have a dramatic effect on the scaling of the pelvic limb musculoskeletal system. Ratios of muscle fibre to tendon cross-sectional areas for ankle extensors and digital flexors scale with positive allometry in all mammals, but exponents are significantly higher in macropods. Tendon safety factors decline with increasing body mass in mammals, with eutherians at risk of ankle extensor tendon rupture at a body mass of about 150 kg, whereas kangaroos encounter similar problems at a body mass of approximately 35 kg. Tendon strength appears to limit locomotor performance in these animals. Elastic strain energy storage in tendons is mass dependent in all mammals, but exponents are significantly larger in macropodid. Tibial stresses may scale with positive allometry in kangaroos, which result in lower bone safety factors in macropods compared to eutherian mammals.

Neuronal sodium-channel alpha 1-subunit mutations in generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures plus

Generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures plus (GEFS+) is a familial epilepsy syndrome characterized by the presence of febrile and afebrile seizures. The first gene, GEFS1, was mapped to chromosome 19q and was identified as the sodium-channel beta1-subunit, SCN1B. A second locus on chromosome 2q, GEFS2, was recently identified as the sodium-channel alpha1-subunit, SCN1A. Single-stranded conformation analysis (SSCA) of SCN1A was performed in 53 unrelated index cases to estimate the frequency of mutations in patients with GEFS+. No mutations were found in 17 isolated cases of GEFS+. Three novel SCN1A mutations-D188V, V1353L, and I1656M-were found in 36 familial cases; of the remaining 33 families, 3 had mutations in SCN1B. On the basis of SSCA, the combined frequency of SCN1A and SCN1B mutations in familial cases of GEFS+ was found to be 17%.

Causal loops and the independence of causal facts

According to Hugh Mellor in Real Time II (1998, Ch. 12), assuming the logical independence of causal facts and the 'law of large numbers', causal loops are impossible because if they were possible they would produce inconsistent sets of frequencies. I clarify the argument, and argue that it would be preferable to abandon the relevant independence assumption in the case of causal loops.

Truncation of the GABA(A)-receptor gamma 2 subunit in a family with generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures plus

Recent findings from studies of two families have shown that mutations in the GABA(A)-receptor gamma2 subunit are associated with generalized epilepsies and febrile seizures. Here we describe a family that has generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures plus (GEFS(+)), including an individual with severe myoclonic epilepsy of infancy, in whom a third GABA(A)-receptor gamma2-subunit mutation was found. This mutation lies in the intracellular loop between the third and fourth transmembrane domains of the GABA(A)-receptor gamma2 subunit and introduces a premature stop codon at Q351 in the mature protein. GABA sensitivity in Xenopus laevis oocytes expressing the mutant gamma2(Q351X) subunit is completely abolished, and fluorescent-microscopy studies have shown that receptors containing GFP-labeled gamma2(Q351X) protein are retained in the lumen of the endoplasmic reticulum. This finding reinforces the involvement of GABA(A) receptors in epilepsy.

Trichomonas vaginalis is associated with pelvic inflammatory disease in women infected with human immunodeficiency virus

We assessed the association between the causative agents of vaginal discharge and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) among women attending a rural sexually transmitted disease clinic in South Africa; the role played by coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was studied. Vaginal and cervical specimens were obtained to detect Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Chlamydia trachomatis, Trichomonas vaginalis, and bacterial vaginosis. HIV-1 infection was established by use of serum antibody tests. A total of 696 women with vaginal discharge were recruited, 119 of whom had clinical PID. Patients with trichomoniasis had a significantly higher risk of PID than did women without trichomoniasis (P = .03). PID was not associated with any of the other pathogens. When the patients were stratified according to HIV-1 status, the risk of PID in HIV-1-infected patients with T. vaginalis increased significantly (P = .002); no association was found in patients without HIV-1. T. vaginalis infection of the lower genital tract is associated with a clinical diagnosis of PID in HIV-1-infected women.

The coincidences of time travel

In this paper I consider two objections raised by Nick Smith (1997) to an argument against the probability of time travel given by Paul Horwich (1995, 1987). Horwich argues that time travel leads to inexplicable and improbable coincidences. I argue that one of Smith's objections fails, but that another is correct. I also consider an instructive way to defend Horwich's argument against the second of Smith's objections, but show that it too fails. I conclude that unless there is something faulty in the conception of explanation implicit in Horwich's argument, time travel presents us with nothing that is inexplicable.

Phylogeny and evolution of anomalous roots in Daviesia (Fabaceae : Mirbelieae)

The phylogeny of the Australian legume genus Daviesia was estimated using sequences of the internal transcribed spacers of nuclear ribosomal DNA. Partial congruence was found with previous analyses using morphology, including strong support for monophyly of the genus and for a sister group relationship between the clade D. pachyloma and the rest of the genus. A previously unplaced bird-pollinated species, anceps + D. D. epiphyllum, was well supported as sister to the only other bird-pollinated species in the genus, D. speciosa, indicating a single origin of bird pollination in their common ancestor. Other morphological groups within Daviesia were not supported and require reassessment. A strong and previously unreported sister clade of Daviesia consists of the two monotypic genera Erichsenia and Viminaria. These share phyllode-like leaves and indehiscent fruits. The evolutionary history of cord roots, which have anomalous secondary thickening, was explored using parsimony. Cord roots are limited to three separate clades but have a complex history involving a small number of gains (most likely 0-3) and losses (0-5). The anomalous structure of cord roots ( adventitious vascular strands embedded in a parenchymatous matrix) may facilitate nutrient storage, and the roots may be contractile. Both functions may be related to a postfire resprouting adaptation. Alternatively, cord roots may be an adaptation to the low-nutrient lateritic soils of Western Australia. However, tests for association between root type, soil type, and growth habit were equivocal, depending on whether the variables were treated as phylogenetically dependent (insignificant) or independent ( significant).

Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?

In a recent thought-provoking paper, Ball and Sheridan [Ball, L., Sheridan, N., 2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke, B.S., Woodford, M. (Eds.), The Inflation-Targeting Debate, University of Chicago Press] show that the available evidence for a group of developed economies does not lend credence to the belief that adopting an inflation targeting regime (IT) was instrumental in bringing inflation and inflation volatility down. Here, we extend Ball and Sheridan`s analysis for a subset of 36 emerging market economies and find that, for them, the story is quite different. Compared to non-targeters, developing countries adopting the IT regime not only experienced greater drops in inflation, but also in growth volatility, thus corroborating the view that the regime`s ""constrained flexibility"" to deal with adverse shocks delivered concrete welfare gains. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Viral Load Predicts New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy, Independent of CD4 T Lymphocyte Value

Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.

Heterozygosity for the S180L Variant of MAL/TIRAP, a Gene Expressing an Adaptor Protein in the Toll-Like Receptor Pathway, Is Associated with Lower Risk of Developing Chronic Chagas Cardiomyopathy

Background. Chagas disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi. Among T. cruzi-infected individuals, only a subgroup develops severe chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC); the majority remain asymptomatic. T. cruzi displays numerous ligands for the Toll-like receptors (TLRs), which are an important component of innate immunity that lead to the transcription of proinflammatory cytokines by nuclear factor-kappa B. Because proinflammatory cytokines play an important role in CCC, we hypothesized that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the genes that encode proteins in the TLR pathway could explain differential susceptibility to CCC among T. cruzi-infected individuals. Methods. For 169 patients with CCC and 76 T. cruzi-infected, asymptomatic individuals, we analyzed SNPs by use of polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis for the genes TLR1, TLR2, TLR4, TLR5, TLR9, and MAL/TIRAP, which encodes an adaptor protein. Results. Heterozygous carriers of the MAL/TIRAP variant S180L were more prevalent in the asymptomatic group (24 [32%] of 76 subjects) than in the CCC group (21 [12%] of 169) (chi(2) = 12.6; P = .0004 [adjusted P (P(c)) = .0084]; odds ratio [OR], 0.31 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.16-0.60]). Subgroup analysis showed a stronger association when asymptomatic patients were compared with patients who had severe CCC (i.e., patients with left-ventricular ejection fraction <= 40%) (chi(2) = 11.3; P = .0008 [P(c) = .017]; OR, 0.22 [95% CI, 0.09-0.56]) than when asymptomatic patients were compared with patients who had mild CCC (i.e., patients with left-ventricular ejection fraction >40%) (chi(2) = 7.7; P = .005 [P(c) = .11]; OR, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.15-0.73]). Conclusion. T. cruzi-infected individuals who are heterozygous for the MAL/TIRAP S180L variant that leads to a decrease in signal transduction upon ligation of TLR2 or TLR4 to their respective ligand may have a lower risk of developing CCC.

Effect of paricalcitol and calcitriol on aortic wall remodeling in uninephrectomized ApoE knockout mice

Becker LE, Koleganova N, Piecha G, Noronha IL, Zeier M, Geldyyev A, Kokeny G, Ritz E, Gross ML. Effect of paricalcitol and calcitriol on aortic wall remodeling in uninephrectomized ApoE knockout mice. Am J Physiol Renal Physiol 300: F772-F782, 2011. First published December 15, 2010; doi:10.1152/ajprenal.00042.2010.-Despitean only minor reduction in the glomerular filtration rate, uninephrectomy (UNX) markedly accelerates the rate of growth of atherosclerotic plaques in ApoE-/- mice. It has been suggested that vitamin D receptor (VDR) activation exerts an antiproliferative effect on vascular smooth muscle cells, but the side effects may limit its use. To assess a potentially different spectrum of actions, we compared the effects of paricalcitol and calcitriol on remodeling and calcification of the aortic wall in sham-operated and UNX ApoE-/- mice on a diet with normal cholesterol content. Sham-operated and UNX mice were randomly allotted to treatment with solvent, calcitriol (0.03 mu g/kg) or paricalcitol (0.1 mu g/kg) 5 times/wk intraperitoneally for 10 wk. Semithin (0.6 mu m) sections of the aorta were analyzed by 1) morphometry, 2) immunohistochemistry, and 3) Western blotting of key proteins involved in vascular calcification and growth. Compared with sham-operated animals (5.6 +/- 0.24), the wall-to-lumen ratio (x100) of the aorta was significantly higher in solvent-and calcitriol-treated UNX animals (6.64 +/- 0.27 and 7.17 +/- 0.81, respectively, P < 0.05), but not in paricalcitol-treated UNX (6.1 5 +/- 0.32). Similar differences were seen with respect to maximal plaque height. Expression of transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta 1 in aortic intima/plaque was also significantly higher in UNX solvent and UNX calcitriol compared with sham-operated and UNX paricalcitol animals. Treatment with both paricalcitol and calcitriol caused significant elevation of VDR expression in the aorta. While at the dose employed paricalcitol significantly reduced TGF-beta expression in plaques, calcitriol in contrast caused significant vascular calcification and elevated expression of related proteins (BMP2, RANKL, and Runx2).