From Stability to Insurgency: The Root and Proximate Causes of the September 2002 Civil War in Cote d'Ivoire

This dissertation was an analysis of the root and proximate causes of the September 2002 civil war in Côte d’Ivoire. The central question of this study was: Why did Côte d’Ivoire, which was relatively stable under President Houphouët-Boigny, suddenly begin to experience political violence in the 1990s and an explosion in 2002? Côte d’Ivoire was an interesting case because it was stable for a long period of time, apparently making it an infertile ground for conflict. It was also interesting for comparative purposes because of the fact that several states in West Africa (for instance, Benin, Togo, and Ghana) have experienced military coups but not have civil wars. Finally, this case was an opportunity to revisit the debate on the causes of civil wars in the African context. Chapter one has outlined the entire dissertation project and contextualized the analysis that follows in the subsequent chapters. Chapter two has reviewed the literature on civil wars in general, identified the different types of civil wars, and the type the Ivoiran war is. Chapter three has examined the domestic and international political economy as a source of the civil violence in Côte d’Ivoire. Chapter four has examined the role of ethnicity and region as identities of the war, while chapter five has analyzed the role of the foreign relations in the civil war, as well as the regional political context. Chapter six has distinguished between the root and proximate causes of the Ivoirian civil war, made judgments about the relative weight of the various causes, and the extent to which the weight of the causes can be measured. The study found that the “Ivoirité” was the most important trigger of the civil war in Côte d’Ivoire. The overall conclusion of my dissertation was that the September 2002 crisis in that country was a political crisis which occured in the context of a political reform. It first started with succession problems in 1993 followed by the controversial elections in 1995 and 2000. Later, this electoral politics spread beyond electoral issues, namely citizenship matters.

Global compilation of benthic data sets I

Approaches to quantify the organic carbon accumulation on a global scale generally do not consider the small-scale variability of sedimentary and oceanographic boundary conditions along continental margins. In this study, we present a new approach to regionalize the total organic carbon (TOC) content in surface sediments (<5 cm sediment depth). It is based on a compilation of more than 5500 single measurements from various sources. Global TOC distribution was determined by the application of a combined qualitative and quantitative-geostatistical method. Overall, 33 benthic TOC-based provinces were defined and used to process the global distribution pattern of the TOC content in surface sediments in a 1°x1° grid resolution. Regional dependencies of data points within each single province are expressed by modeled semi-variograms. Measured and estimated TOC values show good correlation, emphasizing the reasonable applicability of the method. The accumulation of organic carbon in marine surface sediments is a key parameter in the control of mineralization processes and the material exchange between the sediment and the ocean water. Our approach will help to improve global budgets of nutrient and carbon cycles.

Database of the GLAMAP project

A uniform chronology for foraminifera-based sea surface temperature records has been established in more than 120 sediment cores obtained from the equatorial and eastern Atlantic up to the Arctic Ocean. The chronostratigraphy of the last 30,000 years is mainly based on published d18O records and 14C ages from accelerator mass spectrometry, converted into calendar-year ages. The high-precision age control provides the database necessary for the uniform reconstruction of the climate interval of the Last Glacial Maximum within the GLAMAP-2000 project.

Glacial North Atlantic: Sea surface conditions reconstructed by GLAMAP 2000

The response of the tropical ocean to global climate change and the extent of sea ice in the glacial nordic seas belong to the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Our new reconstruction of peak glacial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic is based on census counts of planktic foraminifera, using the Maximum Similarity Technique Version 28 (SIMMAX-28) modern analog technique with 947 modern analog samples and 119 well-dated sediment cores. Our study compares two slightly different scenarios of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Environmental Processes of the Ice Age: Land, Oceans, Glaciers (EPILOG), and Glacial Atlantic Ocean Mapping (GLAMAP 2000) time slices. The comparison shows that the maximum LGM cooling in the Southern Hemisphere slightly preceeded that in the north. In both time slices sea ice was restricted to the north western margin of the nordic seas during glacial northern summer, while the central and eastern parts were ice-free. During northern glacial winter, sea ice advanced to the south of Iceland and Faeroe. In the central northern North Atlantic an anticyclonic gyre formed between 45° and 60°N, with a cool water mass centered west of Ireland, where glacial cooling reached a maximum of >12°C. In the subtropical ocean gyres the new reconstruction supports the glacial-to-interglacial stability of SST as shown by CLIMAP Project Members (CLIMAP) [1981]. The zonal belt of minimum SST seasonality between 2° and 6°N suggests that the LGM caloric equator occupied the same latitude as today. In contrast to the CLIMAP reconstruction, the glacial cooling of the tropical east Atlantic upwelling belt reached up to 6°-8°C during Northern Hemisphere summer. Differences between these SIMMAX-based and published U37[k]- and Mg/Ca-based equatorial SST records are ascribed to strong SST seasonalities and SST signals that were produced by different planktic species groups during different seasons.

Distribution of planktic foraminifera in surface sediments of the Atlantic Ocean

We present a data set of 738 planktonic foraminiferal species counts from sediment surface samples of the eastern North Atlantic and the South Atlantic between 87°N and 40°S, 35°E and 60°W including published Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) data. These species counts are linked to Levitus's [1982] modern water temperature data for the four caloric seasons, four depth ranges (0, 30, 50, and 75 m), and the combined means of those depth ranges. The relation between planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and sea surface temperature (SST) data is estimated using the newly developed SIMMAX technique, which is an acronym for a modern analog technique (MAT) with a similarity index, based on (1) the scalar product of the normalized faunal percentages and (2) a weighting procedure of the modern analog's SSTs according to the inverse geographical distances of the most similar samples. Compared to the classical CLIMAP transfer technique and conventional MAT techniques, SIMMAX provides a more confident reconstruction of paleo-SSTs (correlation coefficient is 0.994 for the caloric winter and 0.993 for caloric summer). The standard deviation of the residuals is 0.90°C for caloric winter and 0.96°C for caloric summer at 0-m water depth. The SST estimates reach optimum stability (standard deviation of the residuals is 0.88°C) at the average 0- to 75-m water depth. Our extensive database provides SST estimates over a range of -1.4 to 27.2°C for caloric winter and 0.4 to 28.6°C for caloric summer, allowing SST estimates which are especially valuable for the high-latitude Atlantic during glacial times.

Compilation of 220 sediment core d13C data from the glacial Atlantic Ocean

We compare a compilation of 220 sediment core d13C data from the glacial Atlantic Ocean with three-dimensional ocean circulation simulations including a marine carbon cycle model. The carbon cycle model employs circulation fields which were derived from previous climate simulations. All sediment data have been thoroughly quality controlled, focusing on epibenthic foraminiferal species (such as Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi or Planulina ariminensis) to improve the comparability of model and sediment core carbon isotopes. The model captures the general d13C pattern indicated by present-day water column data and Late Holocene sediment cores but underestimates intermediate and deep water values in the South Atlantic. The best agreement with glacial reconstructions is obtained for a model scenario with an altered freshwater balance in the Southern Ocean that mimics enhanced northward sea ice export and melting away from the zone of sea ice production. This results in a shoaled and weakened North Atlantic Deep Water flow and intensified Antarctic Bottom Water export, hence confirming previous reconstructions from paleoproxy records. Moreover, the modeled abyssal ocean is very cold and very saline, which is in line with other proxy data evidence.

(Appendix) Gephyrocapsa coccolith abundance and holocene paleotemperature assessment

A global sea surface temperature calibration based on the relative abundance of different morphotypes within the coccolithophore genus Gephyrocapsa in Holocene deep-sea sediments is presented. There is evidence suggesting that absolute sea surface temperature for a given location can be calculated from the relative abundance of Gephyrocapsa morphotypes in sediment samples, with a standard error comparable to temperature estimates derived from other temperature proxies such as planktic foraminifera transfer functions. A total of 110 Holocene sediment samples were selected from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans covering a mean sea surface temperature gradient from 13.6° to 29.3°C. Standard multiple linear regression analyses were applied to this data set, linking the relative abundance of Gephyrocapsa morphotypes to sea surface temperature. The best model revealed an r**2 of 0.83 with a standard residual error of 1.78°C for the estimation of mean sea surface temperature. This new proxy provides a unique opportunity for the reconstruction of paleotemperatures with a very small amount of sample material due to the minute size of coccoliths, permitting examination of thinly laminated sediments (e.g., a pinhead of material from laminated sediments for the reconstruction of annual sea surface temperature variations). Such fine-scale resolution is currently not possible with any other proxy. Application of this new paleotemperature proxy may allow new paleoenvironmental interpretations in the late Quaternary period and discrepancies between the different currently used paleotemperature proxies might be resolved.

Benthic organic carbon flux and oxygen penetration depth in the Southern Ocean

For the investigation of organic carbon fluxes reaching the seafloor, oxygen microprofiles were measured at 145 sites in different sub-regions of the Southern Ocean. At eleven sites, an in situ oxygen microprofiler was deployed for the measurement of oxygen profiles and the calculation of organic carbon fluxes. At four sites, both in situ and ex situ data were determined for high latitudes. Based on this dataset as well as on previous published data, a relationship was established for the estimation of fluxes derived by ex situ measured O2 profiles. The fluxes of labile organic matter range from 0.5 to 37.1 mgC m**2/day. The high values determined by in situ measurements were observed in the Polar Front region (water depth of more than 4290 m) and are comparable to organic matter fluxes observed for high-productivity, upwelling areas like off West Africa. The oxygen penetration depth, which reflects the long-term organic matter flux to the sediment, was correlated with assemblages of key diatom species. In the Scotia Sea (~3000 m water depth), oxygen penetration depths of less than 15 cm were observed, indicating high benthic organic carbon fluxes. In contrast, the oxic zone extends down to several decimeters in abyssal sediments of the Weddell Sea and the southeastern South Atlantic. The regional pattern of organic carbon fluxes derived from micro-sensor data suggest that episodic and seasonal sedimentation pulses are important for the carbon supply to the seafloor of the deep Southern Ocean.

Chemistry and grain-size distribution of terrigenous sediments deposited at Site GeoB9501

The Sahara Desert is the largest source of mineral dust in the world. Emissions of African dust increased sharply in the early 1970s, a change that has been attributed mainly to drought in the Sahara/Sahel region caused by changes in the global distribution of sea surface temperature. The human contribution to land degradation and dust mobilization in this region remains poorly understood, owing to the paucity of data that would allow the identification of long-term trends in desertification. Direct measurements of airborne African dust concentrations only became available in the mid-1960s from a station on Barbados and subsequently from satellite imagery since the late 1970s: they do not cover the onset of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region ~170 years ago. Here we construct a 3,200-year record of dust deposition off northwest Africa by investigating the chemistry and grain-size distribution of terrigenous sediments deposited at a marine site located directly under the West African dust plume. With the help of our dust record and a proxy record for West African precipitation we find that, on the century scale, dust deposition is related to precipitation in tropical West Africa until the seventeenth century. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, a sharp increase in dust deposition parallels the advent of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region. Our findings suggest that human-induced dust emissions from the Sahel region have contributed to the atmospheric dust load for about 200 years.

Pollen analysis of sediment core GIK16415-2 in the eastern tropical Atlantic

Palynological data of the marine core M 16415-2 show latitudinal shifts of the northern fringe of the tropical rain forest in north-west Africa during the last 700 ka. Savanna and dry open forest expanded southwards and tropical rain forest expanded northwards during dry and humid periods, respectively. Until 220 ka B.P., the tropical rain forest probably kept its zonal character in West Africa during glacials and interglacials. It is only during the last two glacial periods that the rain forest possibly fragmented into refugia. Throughout the Brunhes chron, pollen and spore transport was mainly by trade winds.