On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

Exact and approximate stepdown methods for multiple hypothesis testing

Consider the problem of testing k hypotheses simultaneously. In this paper,we discuss finite and large sample theory of stepdown methods that providecontrol of the familywise error rate (FWE). In order to improve upon theBonferroni method or Holm's (1979) stepdown method, Westfall and Young(1993) make eective use of resampling to construct stepdown methods thatimplicitly estimate the dependence structure of the test statistics. However,their methods depend on an assumption called subset pivotality. The goalof this paper is to construct general stepdown methods that do not requiresuch an assumption. In order to accomplish this, we take a close look atwhat makes stepdown procedures work, and a key component is a monotonicityrequirement of critical values. By imposing such monotonicity on estimatedcritical values (which is not an assumption on the model but an assumptionon the method), it is demonstrated that the problem of constructing a validmultiple test procedure which controls the FWE can be reduced to the problemof contructing a single test which controls the usual probability of a Type 1error. This reduction allows us to draw upon an enormous resamplingliterature as a general means of test contruction.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

A data-dependent skeleton estimate and a scale-sensitive dimension for classification

The classical binary classification problem is investigatedwhen it is known in advance that the posterior probability function(or regression function) belongs to some class of functions. We introduceand analyze a method which effectively exploits this knowledge. The methodis based on minimizing the empirical risk over a carefully selected``skeleton'' of the class of regression functions. The skeleton is acovering of the class based on a data--dependent metric, especiallyfitted for classification. A new scale--sensitive dimension isintroduced which is more useful for the studied classification problemthan other, previously defined, dimension measures. This fact isdemonstrated by performance bounds for the skeleton estimate in termsof the new dimension.

Trophic ecology of jumbo squid and predatory fishes in the Northern Humboldt Current System

This work provides a contribution to a better understanding of the trophic ecology of important predators in the Northern Humboldt Current System, the jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi), the chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) and the jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) by the characterization of the highly variable feeding patterns of these species at different spatiotemporal scales. We provided new knowledge on the comparative trophic behaviour of these species, defined as opportunistic in previous investigations. For that purpose we applied a variety of statistical methods to an extensive dataset of 27,188 non-empty stomachs. We defined the spatial organization of the forage fauna of these predators and documented changes in prey composition according to predators’ size and spatiotemporal features of environment. Our results highligh the key role played by the dissolved oxygen. We also deciphered an important paradox on the jumbo squid diet: why do they hardly forage on the huge anchovy (Engraulis ringens) biomass distributed of coastal Peru? We showed that the shallow oxygen minimum zone present off coastal Peru could hamper the co-occurrence of jumbo squids and anchovies. In addition, we proposed a conceptual model on jumbo squid trophic ecology including the ontogenetic cycle, oxygen and prey availability. Moreover we showed that the trophic behaviour of jack mackerel and chub mackerel is adapted to forage on more accessible species such as for example the squat lobster Pleurocondes monodon and Zoea larvae. Besides, both predators present a trophic overlap. But jack mackerel was not as oracious as chub mackerel, contradictorily to what was observed by others authors. Fish diet presented a high spatiotemporal variability, and the shelf break appeared as a strong biogeographical frontier. Diet composition of our fish predators was not necessarily a consistent indicator of changes in prey biomass. El Niño events had a weak effect on the stomach fullness and diet composition of chub mackerel and jack mackerel. Moreover, decadal changes in diet diversity challenged the classic paradigm of positive correlation between species richness and temperature. Finally, the global patterns that we described in this work, illustrated the opportunistic foraging behaviour, life strategies and the high degree of plasticity of these species. Such behaviour allows adaptation to changes in the environment.

Fluorescein and indocyanine-green angiography in ocular syphilis: an exploratory study.

BACKGROUND: Fluorescein (FA) and indocyanine-green angiography (ICGA) may offer valuable information concerning disease severity and prognosis in ocular syphilis. The aim of the present study is to describe angiographic patterns encountered in the context of ocular syphilis, and to explore the associations between specific angiographic manifestations and severity of disease presentation, as well as disease evolution after treatment. METHODS: We performed a retrospective institutional study with the inclusion of 23 patients with ocular syphilis presenting to the uveitis clinic of the Jules-Gonin Eye Hospital in a 10-year period. FA and ICGA were performed following a standard protocol for posterior uveitis. Patterns of fluorescence were noted, and statistical associations between each angiographic pattern and any demographic, clinical, or laboratory parameter at baseline and after treatment were sought. RESULTS: The presence of any dark dots in ICGA was significantly associated with anterior uveitis (p = 0.031). The presence of hot spots in ICGA was significantly associated with longer duration of symptoms prior to initial visit (p = 0.032) and with male gender (p = 0.012). Weak non-significant trends were found associating vascular staining in FA with anterior uveitis (p = 0.066), vitritis (p = 0.069), and younger age (p = 0.061), as well as disc hyperfluorescence in FA with seropositivity for HIV (p = 0.089) and macular edema in FA with longer disease duration (p = 0.061). The presence of any dark dots in ICGA exhibited a weak trend of association with anterior uveitis and/or vitritis (p = 0.079). CONCLUSIONS: Out of the several associations identified implicating specific angiographic features, we underline the possible role of the presence of dark dots in ICGA for identifying active inflammation, and the role of hot spots in ICGA as markers of long-standing disease. Vascular staining in FA appears to be more common in patients with severe ocular inflammation with presence of anterior uveitis and/or vitritis.

Application of real-time PCR for total airborne bacterial assessment : comparison with epifluorescence microscopy and culture-dependent methods

Traditional culture-dependent methods to quantify and identify airborne microorganisms are limited by factors such as short-duration sampling times and inability to count nonculturableor non-viable bacteria. Consequently, the quantitative assessment of bioaerosols is often underestimated. Use of the real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Q-PCR) to quantify bacteria in environmental samples presents an alternative method, which should overcome this problem. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a real-time Q-PCR assay as a simple and reliable way to quantify the airborne bacterial load within poultry houses and sewage treatment plants, in comparison with epifluorescencemicroscopy and culture-dependent methods. The estimates of bacterial load that we obtained from real-time PCR and epifluorescence methods, are comparable, however, our analysis of sewage treatment plants indicate these methods give values 270-290 fold greater than those obtained by the ''impaction on nutrient agar'' method. The culture-dependent method of air impaction on nutrient agar was also inadequate in poultry houses, as was the impinger-culture method, which gave a bacterial load estimate 32-fold lower than obtained by Q-PCR. Real-time quantitative PCR thus proves to be a reliable, discerning, and simple method that could be used to estimate airborne bacterial load in a broad variety of other environments expected to carry high numbers of airborne bacteria. [Authors]

Relationships between soil class and nutritional status of coffee plantations

Farm planning requires an assessment of the soil class. Research suggest that the Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS) has the capacity to evaluate the nutritional status of coffee plantations, regardless of environmental conditions. Additionally, the use of DRIS could reduce the costs for farm planning. This study evaluated the relationship between the soil class and nutritional status of coffee plants (Coffea canephora Pierre) using the Critical Level (CL) and DRIS methods, based on two multivariate statistical methods (discriminant and multidimensional scaling analyses). During three consecutive years, yield and foliar concentration of nutrients (N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Zn, Mn, Fe and Cu) were obtained from coffee plantations cultivated in Espírito Santo state. Discriminant analysis showed that the soil class was an important factor determining the nutritional status of the coffee plants. The grouping separation by the CL method was not as effective as the DRIS one. The bidimensional analysis of Euclidean distances did not show the same relationship between plant nutritional status and soil class. Multidimensional scaling analysis by the CL method indicated that 93.3 % of the crops grouped into one cluster, whereas the DRIS method split the fields more evenly into three clusters. The DRIS method thus proved to be more consistent than the CL method for grouping coffee plantations by soil class.

The weaker points of fish acute toxicity tests and how tests on embryos can solve some issues.

Fish acute toxicity tests play an important role in environmental risk assessment and hazard classification because they allow for first estimates of the relative toxicity of various chemicals in various species. However, such tests need to be carefully interpreted. Here we shortly summarize the main issues which are linked to the genetics and the condition of the test animals, the standardized test situations, the uncertainty about whether a given test species can be seen as representative to a given fish fauna, the often missing knowledge about possible interaction effects, especially with micropathogens, and statistical problems like small sample sizes and, in some cases, pseudoreplication. We suggest that multi-factorial embryo tests on ecologically relevant species solve many of these issues, and we shortly explain how such tests could be done to avoid the weaker points of fish acute toxicity tests.

Crescent and star shapes of members of the Chlamydiales order: impact of fixative methods.

Members of the Chlamydiales order all share a biphasic lifecycle alternating between small infectious particles, the elementary bodies (EBs) and larger intracellular forms able to replicate, the reticulate bodies. Whereas the classical Chlamydia usually harbours round-shaped EBs, some members of the Chlamydia-related families display crescent and star-shaped morphologies by electron microscopy. To determine the impact of fixative methods on the shape of the bacterial cells, different buffer and fixative combinations were tested on purified EBs of Criblamydia sequanensis, Estrella lausannensis, Parachlamydia acanthamoebae, and Waddlia chondrophila. A linear discriminant analysis was performed on particle metrics extracted from electron microscopy images to recognize crescent, round, star and intermediary forms. Depending on the buffer and fixatives used, a mixture of alternative shapes were observed in varying proportions with stars and crescents being more frequent in C. sequanensis and P. acanthamoebae, respectively. No tested buffer and chemical fixative preserved ideally the round shape of a majority of bacteria and other methods such as deep-freezing and cryofixation should be applied. Although crescent and star shapes could represent a fixation artifact, they certainly point towards a diverse composition and organization of membrane proteins or intracellular structures rather than being a distinct developmental stage.

Using step activity monitoring to assess ambulatory activity before and after total ankle arthroplasty : FM103

Introduction: The aim of this study is to compare the walking activity of a cohort of individuals before and after total ankle arthroplasty (TAA). Methods: Nineteen consecutive patients (ten males and nine females) with mean age of 58.72, selected for TAA between January and June 2006, were prospectively reviewed with the use of a dedicated ambulatory activity-monitoring device to assess their natural ambulatory activity. Patients were tested in the community for two weeks duration, one month prior to and at least eighteen months after surgery. The ambulatory parameters were assessed through measurement of the number of steps at different cadence, and the time spent walking at different walking paces. Data were analyzed by using specific statistical methods. Results: This study revealed a significant improvement in the number of steps walked at normal cadence (b = 331.63, p = .00) and significantly reduced at low cadence (b = -402.52, p = .00) and medium cadence (b = -386.29, p = .00), before and after TAA. However, there are no significant different between two phases of assessment in term of time spent walking. Conclusion: These quantitative data allow a clear comparative assessment of walking ability following TAR and demonstrates that this intervention improves patient's walking pace.

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy in higher eukaryotes.

Research in autophagy continues to accelerate,(1) and as a result many new scientists are entering the field. Accordingly, it is important to establish a standard set of criteria for monitoring macroautophagy in different organisms. Recent reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose.(2,3) There are many useful and convenient methods that can be used to monitor macroautophagy in yeast, but relatively few in other model systems, and there is much confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure macroautophagy in higher eukaryotes. A key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers of autophagosomes versus those that measure flux through the autophagy pathway; thus, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation needs to be differentiated from fully functional autophagy that includes delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (in most higher eukaryotes) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of the methods that can be used by investigators who are attempting to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as by reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that investigate these processes. This set of guidelines is not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to verify an autophagic response.

Metal concentrations in soils around the copper smelter and surrounding industrial complex of Port Kembla, NSW, Australia

Anthropogenic emissions of metals from sources such as smelters are an international problem, but there is limited published information on emissions from Australian smelters. The objective of this study was to investigate the regional distribution of heavy metals in soils in the vicinity of the industrial complex of Port Kembla, NSW, Australia, which comprises a copper smelter, steelworks and associated industries. Soil samples (n=25) were collected at the depths of 0-5 and 5-20 cm, air dried and sieved to < 2 mm. Aqua regia extractable amounts of As, Cr, Cu, Ph and Zn were analysed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (lCP-MS) and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES). Outliers were identified from background levels by statistical methods. Mean background levels at a depth of 0-5 cm were estimated at 3.2 mg/kg As, 12 mg/kg Cr, 49 mg/kg Cu, 20 mg/kg Ph and 42 mg/kg Zn. Outliers for elevated As and Cu values were mainly present within 4 km from the Port Kembla industrial complex, but high Ph at two sites and high Zn concentrations were found at six sites up to 23 km from Port Kembla. Chromium concentrations were not anomalous close to the industrial complex. There was no significant difference of metal concentrations at depths of 0-5 and 5-20 cm, except for Ph and Zn. Copper and As concentrations in the soils are probably related to the concentrations in the parent rock. From this investigation, the extent of the contamination emanating from the Port Kembla industrial complex is limited to 1-13 km, but most likely <4 km, depending on the element; the contamination at the greater distance may not originate from the industrial complex. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

R functions for quantifying nonindependence in standard dyadic and SRM designs

Interdependence is the main feature of dyadic relationships and, in recent years, various statistical procedures have been proposed for quantifying and testing this social attribute in different dyadic designs. The purpose of this paper is to develop several functions for this kind of statistical tests in an R package, known as nonindependence, for use by applied social researchers. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) is also developed to facilitate the use of the functions included in this package. Examples drawn from psychological research and simulated data are used to illustrate how the software works.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.