Review: the predictability of the extra-tropical stratosphere on monthly timescales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

Extreme variability of the winter- and spring-time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing stratospheric forecast error may be one way to improve the skill of tropospheric weather forecasts. In this review, the basis for this idea is examined. A range of studies of different stratospheric extreme vortex events shows that they can be skilfully forecasted beyond five days and into the sub-seasonal range (0-30 days) in some cases. Separate studies show that typical errors in forecasting a stratospheric extreme vortex event can alter tropospheric forecasts skill by 5-7% in the extratropics on sub-seasonal timescales. Thus understanding what limits stratospheric predictability is of significant interest to operational forecasting centres. Both limitations in forecasting tropospheric planetary waves and stratospheric model biases have been shown to be important in this context.

How will the stratosphere affect climate change?

Changes in stratospheric chemistry and circulation associated with ozone recovery may affect the patterns of future climate change.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

Short-period variation of cosmic-ray intensity and ozone density observed in the stratosphere

The energy deposition by slowing-down of energetic ionizing particles in the atmosphere enhances the production of constituent concentration which perturbs and eventually destroys the ozone (OZ) layer. Near the Brazilian anomaly region the cosmic-ray (CR) intensity varies greatly due to the magnetic activity in that region. In order to study these variations, stratospheric balloons were launched to measure, simultaneously, the CR and OZ fluxes in the atmosphere. The Fourier-analysed data collected during the flight on April 22, 1989 show evidences of a short-period variation for both fluxes measured. Attempts to verify the physical mechanisms which associate the CR change with the OZ one are not conclusive due to limited data observed on that event. © 1993 Società Italiana di Fisica.

Solid particles in the tropical lowest stratosphere

We report in situ and remote observations proving occasional occurrence of solid particles in the tropical lowest stratosphere, 200km from deep convective events. The particles were found during field campaigns in Southeast Brazil (49.03 W 22.36 S). They occur in the altitude range from 17.5 to 20.8 km, at temperatures up to at least 10 K above the expected frost point temperature. While stability of ice particles at these altitudes is unexpected from a theoretical point of view, it is argued that these observations are indications of tropospheric air masses penetrating into the stratosphere during convective overshoots. It is argued that the intrusion of tropospheric air must have carried a large amount of water with it, which effectively hydrated the lowest stratosphere, and consequently suppressed sublimation. This conclusion is further supported by a separate water vapor mixing ratio profile obtained at the same observation site.

A study of the effect of overshooting deep convection on the water content of the TTL and lower stratosphere from Cloud Resolving Model simulations

Simulations of overshooting, tropical deep convection using a Cloud Resolving Model with bulk microphysics are presented in order to examine the effect on the water content of the TTL (Tropical Tropopause Layer) and lower stratosphere. This case study is a subproject of the HIBISCUS (Impact of tropical convection on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere at global scale) campaign, which took place in Bauru, Brazil (22° S, 49° W), from the end of January to early March 2004. Comparisons between 2-D and 3-D simulations suggest that the use of 3-D dynamics is vital in order to capture the mixing between the overshoot and the stratospheric air, which caused evaporation of ice and resulted in an overall moistening of the lower stratosphere. In contrast, a dehydrating effect was predicted by the 2-D simulation due to the extra time, allowed by the lack of mixing, for the ice transported to the region to precipitate out of the overshoot air. Three different strengths of convection are simulated in 3-D by applying successively lower heating rates (used to initiate the convection) in the boundary layer. Moistening is produced in all cases, indicating that convective vigour is not a factor in whether moistening or dehydration is produced by clouds that penetrate the tropopause, since the weakest case only just did so. An estimate of the moistening effect of these clouds on an air parcel traversing a convective region is made based on the domain mean simulated moistening and the frequency of convective events observed by the IPMet (Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas, Universidade Estadual Paulista) radar (S-band type at 2.8 Ghz) to have the same 10 dBZ echo top height as those simulated. These suggest a fairly significant mean moistening of 0.26, 0.13 and 0.05 ppmv in the strongest, medium and weakest cases, respectively, for heights between 16 and 17 km. Since the cold point and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) tropopause in this region lies at ∼ 15.9 km, this is likely to represent direct stratospheric moistening. Much more moistening is predicted for the 15-16 km height range with increases of 0.85-2.8 ppmv predicted. However, it would be required that this air is lofted through the tropopause via the Brewer Dobson circulation in order for it to have a stratospheric effect. Whether this is likely is uncertain and, in addition, the dehydration of air as it passes through the cold trap and the number of times that trajectories sample convective regions needs to be taken into account to gauge the overall stratospheric effect. Nevertheless, the results suggest a potentially significant role for convection in determining the stratospheric water content. Sensitivity tests exploring the impact of increased aerosol numbers in the boundary layer suggest that a corresponding rise in cloud droplet numbers at cloud base would increase the number concentrations of the ice crystals transported to the TTL, which had the effect of reducing the fall speeds of the ice and causing a ∼13% rise in the mean vapour increase in both the 15-16 and 16-17 km height ranges, respectively, when compared to the control case. Increases in the total water were much larger, being 34% and 132% higher for the same height ranges, but it is unclear whether the extra ice will be able to evaporate before precipitating from the region. These results suggest a possible impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on how convective clouds affect stratospheric moisture levels.

Aircraft-based in-situ aerosol mass spectrometry: Chemical characterization and source identification of submicron particulate matter in the free and upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

The composition of the atmosphere is frequently perturbed by the emission of gaseous and particulate matter from natural as well as anthropogenic sources. While the impact of trace gases on the radiative forcing of the climate is relatively well understood the role of aerosol is far more uncertain. Therefore, the study of the vertical distribution of particulate matter in the atmosphere and its chemical composition contribute valuable information to bridge this gap of knowledge. The chemical composition of aerosol reveals information on properties such as radiative behavior and hygroscopicity and therefore cloud condensation or ice nucleus potential. rnThis thesis focuses on aerosol pollution plumes observed in 2008 during the POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport) campaign over Greenland in June/July and CONCERT (Contrail and Cirrus Experiment) campaign over Central and Western Europe in October/November. Measurements were performed with an Aerodyne compact time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) capable of online size-resolved chemical characterization of non-refractory submicron particles. In addition, the origins of pollution plumes were determined by means of modeling tools. The characterized pollution episodes originated from a large variety of sources and were encountered at distinct altitudes. They included pure natural emissions from two volcanic eruptions in 2008. By the time of detection over Western Europe between 10 and 12 km altitude the plume was about 3 months old and composed to 71 % of particulate sulfate and 21 % of carbonaceous compounds. Also, biomass burning (BB) plumes were observed over Greenland between 4 and 7 km altitude (free troposphere) originating from Canada and East Siberia. The long-range transport took roughly one and two weeks, respectively. The aerosol was composed of 78 % organic matter and 22 % particulate sulfate. Some Canadian and all Siberian BB plumes were mixed with anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (FF) in North America and East Asia. It was found that the contribution of particulate sulfate increased with growing influences from anthropogenic activity and Asia reaching up to 37 % after more than two weeks of transport time. The most exclusively anthropogenic emission source probed in the upper troposphere was engine exhaust from commercial aircraft liners over Germany. However, in-situ characterization of this aerosol type during aircraft chasing was not possible. All long-range transport aerosol was found to have an O:C ratio close to or greater than 1 implying that low-volatility oxygenated organic aerosol was present in each case despite the variety of origins and the large range in age from 3 to 100 days. This leads to the conclusion that organic particulate matter reaches a final and uniform state of oxygenation after at least 3 days in the free troposphere. rnExcept for aircraft exhaust all emission sources mentioned above are surface-bound and thus rely on different types of vertical transport mechanisms, such as direct high altitude injection in the case of a volcanic eruption, or severe BB, or uplift by convection, to reach higher altitudes where particles can travel long distances before removal mainly caused by cloud scavenging. A lifetime for North American mixed BB and FF aerosol of 7 to 11 days was derived. This in consequence means that emission from surface point sources, e.g. volcanoes, or regions, e.g. East Asia, do not only have a relevant impact on the immediate surroundings but rather on a hemispheric scale including such climate sensitive zones as the tropopause or the Arctic.

A 20-day period standing oscillation in the northern winter stratosphere

Observations of the ozone profile by a ground-based microwave radiometer in Switzerland indicate a dominant 20-day oscillation in stratospheric ozone, possibly related to oscillations of the polar vortex edge during winter. For further understanding of the nature of the 20-day oscillation, the ozone data set of ERA Interim meteorological reanalysis is analyzed at the latitude belt of 47.5° N and in the time from 1979 to 2010. Spectral analysis of ozone time series at 7 hPa indicates that the 20-day oscillation is maximal at two locations: 7.5° E, 47.5° N and 60° E, 47.5° N. Composites of the stream function are derived for different phases of the 20-day oscillation of stratospheric ozone at 7 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere. The streamline at Ψ = −2 × 107 m2 s−1 is in the vicinity of the polar vortex edge. The other streamline at Ψ = 4 × 107 m2 s1 surrounds the Aleutian anticyclone and goes to the subtropics. The composites show 20-day period standing oscillations at the polar vortex edge and in the subtropics above Northern Africa, India, and China. The 20-day period standing oscillation above Aral Sea and India is correlated to the strength of the Aleutian anticyclone.