Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

Price Premium for High-Efficiency Refrigerators and Calculation of Price-Elasticities for Close-Substitutes: Combining Hedonic Pricing and Demand Systems

21 p.

Skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer

We have performed GCM experiments using the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) model to study the skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer and to test the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on such forecasts. The daily skill varies a great deal. The skillful daily forecasts last from 5 to 8 days for the Southern Hemisphere and from 6 to 8 days for the Northern Hemisphere. SSTAs have positive impact on the forecasts in the tropics and surface variables, but the impact of tropical SSTAs on the extra-tropical circulation is, in general, positive but small. Overall, the initial conditions play a more important role than SSTAs in determining the forecast skill.

Understanding luxury in the premium automotive industry

This paper summarises the findings of investigations to date in understanding what luxury and premiumness mean to the high-end automotive consumer. Existing writings on luxury and premiumness are considered. An exploratory study was carried out in two countries using 309 respondents and 18 prestige cars. A "stream of consciousness" approach was used to capture respondent's views on a selection of vehicles. The codified transcripts were used to identify key differences between the top and bottom rated vehicles, in terms of the nature and quantity of emotional responses elicited. This paper describes some of these key product differences that were self-reported to impact upon a luxury response. Finally, suggestions are made as to the next steps required for this research. © 2007 ACM.

Characterisation of friction and lubrication regimes in premium tubular connections

A friction test rig has been developed to carry out repeated sliding friction tests for premium tubular connections. The test rig enables accurate measurement of friction in various contact regimes which are relevant to the threaded connections between tubular components. Higher load tests can simulate the contact in metal-to-metal seals under very high contact pressures by using perpendicular pin-on-pin tests. The contact in the thread loading flank under intermediate pressures can be simulated by using larger radius coupon-on-coupon tests. The measured coefficient of friction is well correlated with a lubrication parameter combining lubricant film thickness and initial surface roughness. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Context-dependent decay of motor memories during skill acquisition.

Current models of motor learning posit that skill acquisition involves both the formation and decay of multiple motor memories that can be engaged in different contexts. Memory formation is assumed to be context dependent, so that errors most strongly update motor memories associated with the current context. In contrast, memory decay is assumed to be context independent, so that movement in any context leads to uniform decay across all contexts. We demonstrate that for both object manipulation and force-field adaptation, contrary to previous models, memory decay is highly context dependent. We show that the decay of memory associated with a given context is greatest for movements made in that context, with more distant contexts showing markedly reduced decay. Thus, both memory formation and decay are strongest for the current context. We propose that this apparently paradoxical organization provides a mechanism for optimizing performance. While memory decay tends to reduce force output, memory formation can correct for any errors that arise, allowing the motor system to regulate force output so as to both minimize errors and avoid unnecessary energy expenditure. The motor commands for any given context thus result from a balance between memory formation and decay, while memories for other contexts are preserved.

Manufacturing excellent engineers: Skill development in a Masters programme

An MPhil programme, delivered by the Engineering Department at the University of Cambridge, claims to be excellent at preparing graduates for manufacturing industry careers. The course uses a combination of different educational experiences, including industry-based assignments, industrial visits and practical exercises. This research explores how problem solving skills are developed during the first module, Induction, which is designed to enable students to undertake their first industrial assignment. From the literature, four conditions necessary for skill development were identified: Provision of a skill description, making explicit key components A number of different experiences with a range of contextual variables A teaching process which includes regular feedback and student reflection Students motivated to learn. These were used to construct a skill development framework (SDF). Using a case study research design, multiple types of evidence were collected to test for the above conditions using both classroom observation and questionnaire methods. The results confirmed the presence of the SDF conditions at different levels, with reflection aspects considered the weakest. Conflicting results were obtained regarding the students' self-awareness of skill levels. A plausible explanation is a change in the students' frame of reference. This initial study set out to develop a better understanding of the process of skill development. Whilst the SDF appears reasonable, there is a need for further work in three broad areas of defining skills, assessing skills and developing reflection skills.

A Computational Model of Skill Acquisition

This thesis confronts the nature of the process of learning an intellectual skill, the ability to solve problems efficiently in a particular domain of discourse. The investigation is synthetic; a computational performance model, HACKER, is displayed. Hacker is a computer problem-solving system whose performance improves with practice. HACKER maintains performance knowledge as a library of procedures indexed by descriptions of the problem types for which the procedures are appropriate. When applied to a problem, HACKER tries to use a procedure from this "Answer Library". If no procedure is found to be applicable, HACKER writes one using more general knowledge of the problem domain and of programming techniques. This new program may be generalized and added to the Answer Library.

A cognitive approach to identifying measurable milestones for programming skill acquisition

Mead, J., Gray, S., Hamer, J., James, R., Sorva, J., Clair, C. S., and Thomas, L. 2006. A cognitive approach to identifying measurable milestones for programming skill acquisition. SIGCSE Bull. 38, 4 (Dec. 2006), 182-194.

THE EFFECT OF A PROGRAM OF PORTABLE ELECTRONIC PIANO KEYBOARD EXPERIENCE ON THE ACQUISITION OF SIGHT-SINGING SKILL IN THE NOVICE HIGH SCHOOL CHORUS

The problem was to determine whether a method of aural and visual vocal training that included a program of portable electronic piano keyboard experience would be more effective in teaching sight-singing skills to novice high school chorus students than a method that included only aural and visual vocal training. A sub-problem was to determine whether novice chorus students enjoyed playing electronic keyboards in chorus as a reinforcement experience in sight-singing training. Students were randomly assigned to two treatment groups, tested with the Musical Aptitude Profile, Tonal Imagery, part A, and then trained separately. The experimental group sang repetitions of melodic patterns and utilized techniques associated with the Kodály Method while simultaneously playing keyboard. The comparison group received a similar treatment without using keyboards. The students were pre- and post-tested in sight-singing using the Vocal Sight-Reading Inventory. Results of the Analysis of Covariance using MAP scores as the covariate revealed no significant difference (p<.05) between post-test scores of the two groups. Improvement was noted in 96% of students from pre-test to post-test regardless of grouping. The repeated measures ANOVA revealed a significant relationship (p<.006) between aptitude group and post-test score. High aptitude students in both groups were found to benefit more from the training than low aptitude students. High aptitude keyboard group students achieved an average gain score that was 8.67 points higher than the comparison group. Of the total experimental group, 92% enjoyed playing keyboards in chorus. It is recommended that future research be undertaken to study the use of keyboards with advanced high school choruses and with uncertain singers in the high school chorus. Research is also needed to develop graded, valid, and reliable sight-singing tests for use in high school chorus. Techniques of the Kodály Method should be further investigated for use in high school sight-singing training.

Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US.

A comparison between randomly alternating imaging, normal laparoscopic imaging, and virtual reality training in laparoscopic psychomotor skill acquisition

Objectives: To evaluate virtual reality as a laparoscopic training device in helping surgeons to automate to the “fulcrum effect” by comparing it to time-matched training programs using randomly alternating images (ie, y-axis inverted and normal laparoscopic) and normal laparoscopic viewing conditions.

Methods: Twenty-four participants (16 females and 8 males), were randomly assigned to minimally invasive surgery virtual reality (MIST VR), randomly alternating (between y-axis inverted and normal laparoscopic images), and normal laparoscopic imaging condition. Participants were requested to perform a 2-minute laparoscopic cutting task before and after training.

Results: In the test trial participants who trained on the MIST VR performed significantly better than those in the normal laparoscopic and randomly alternating imaging conditions.

Conclusion: The results show that virtual reality training may provide faster skill acquisition with particular reference to automation of the fulcrum effect. MIST VR provides a new way of training laparoscopic psychomotor surgical skills.