Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Natural, but not lyophilized, low density lypoproteins were an acceptable alternative to egg yolk for cryopreservation of ram semen

The objective was to evaluate the suitability of using natural or lyophilized low density lipoproteins (LDL), in lieu of whole egg yolk, in extenders for cryopreserving ram semen. Once extragonadal sperm reserves were depleted in 10 fertile Santa Ines cross rams, two ejaculates per ram were collected for cryopreservation. Nine extenders were used: Tris-16% egg yolk extender with 5% glycerol as a control (T1), and substitution of whole egg yolk with 8, 12, 16 or 20% natural LDL (T2-T5, respectively), or with 8, 12, 16, or 20% lyophilized LDL (T6-T9). Semen was diluted to 100 X 10(6) sperm/mL, packaged into 0.25 mL straws, cooled, held at 5 C for 3 h, and then frozen in liquid nitrogen vapor. Immediately after thawing (37 degrees C for 30 s), sperm total and progressive motility, and kinetic parameters were analyzed with computer assisted semen analysis (CASA). Percentage of sperm with plasma membrane functional integrity was assessed by the hypoosmotic swelling test (HOST), sperm membrane physical integrity with propidium iodide (PI), and acrosome integrity with FITC-PSA using an epifluorescent microscope. For all sperm end points, there was no difference between the control and natural LDL treatments (P > 0.05): total motility (T1: 20.9 +/- 11.9 and average of T2-T5: 25.9 +/- 13.6%; mean SD), progressive motility (T1: 6.6 +/- 4.2 and average of T2-T5: 11.7 +/- 7.5%), HOST(+) (T1: 23.7 +/- 6.9 and average of T2-T5: 23.2 +/- 8.7%) and PI(-)/PSA(-) (T1: 13.8 +/- 7.8 and average of T2-T5: 18.1 +/- 7.8%). However, lyophilization was apparently unable to preserve the protective function of LDL; every sperm end point was significantly worse than in the control and natural LDL groups. We concluded that natural LDL was appropriate for cryopreserving ram semen, as it yielded results similar to those obtained with whole egg yolk. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Oviductal Fluid Proteins Associated with the Bovine Zona Pellucida and the Effect on In Vitro Sperm-Egg Binding, Fertilization and Embryo Development

Studies have demonstrated that oviductal fluid (ODF) proteins associate with eggs of numerous species including the bovine. In this study, the association of three ODF proteins, the bovine oestrus-associated protein, osteopontin (OPN), lipocalin-type prostaglandin D synthase (L-PGDS), with the bovine zona pellucida (ZP) was demonstrated by immunohistochemistry and western blot. The biological function of ODF derived egg-associated OPN and L-PGDS in sperm binding, fertilization and embryonic development was also explored. In vitro matured bovine oocytes were pre-incubated with ODF collected by cannula from cows in oestrus, or ODF with antibodies to OPN, L-PGDS and bovine serum albumin (BSA). Following incubation, oocytes were inseminated with 1 x 10(5) frozen-thawed spermatozoa, and they were evaluated for sperm binding, fertilization and embryonic development in vitro. Pre-treatment of ODF with antibodies to all of proteins reduced sperm binding to the ZP and fertilization in vitro. Cleavage rates were not significantly different among incubations, but rates of embryo development were significantly decreased. We conclude that antibodies to OPN, L-PGDS and BSA react with oocytes incubated with ODF and inhibit sperm binding, fertilization and embryonic development in vitro, suggesting a potential role of these proteins in these events.

Host preference and host suitability in an egg-pupal fruit fly parasitoid, Fopius arisanus (Sonan) (Hym., Braconidae)

The relative oviposition rate of the parasitoid Fopius arisanus (Sonan) was investigated across three frugivorous tephritid species, Bactrocera tryoni Froggart, Bactrocera jarvisi (Tryon) and Bactrocera cucumis French. Choice and no-choice tests were both used. The suitability of these three species for sustaining larval development and survival to the adult stage was also assessed. Fopius arisanus parasitized all three tephritid species. regardless of the method of exposure, but showed stronger preference for B. tryoni and B. jarvisi over B. cucumis. Superparasitism was extremely rare. Successful development of F. arisanus varied across host species. Bactrocera tryoni yielded significantly more parasitoids than B. jarvisi, but no wasps emerged from B. cucumis puparia. Tests were set up in replicated trials. but results were not homogeneous across trials. We discuss the host relationships of F. arisanus with reference to this variation and in relation to host suitability for larval development.

Effects of dietary level of protein, lysine and methionine and strain of bird on production and egg yolk cholesterol

The effects of dietary level of protein (151, 181 g/kg), lysine (nil, 10g L-lysine hydrochloride/kg) and methionine (nil, 5g DL-methionine/kg) on the production performance and egg yolk cholesterol of two strains of birds were studied for 12 weeks. Birds fed on the high protein diet had higher body weight gain, feed conversion ratio (FCR), rate of lay, egg weight and mass and yolk weight and mass. A high lysine diet decreased feed intake and improved FCR. High dietary level of methionine increased egg yolk cholesterol. There were differences between strains of laying bird in feed intake, rate of lay, egg and yolk weights and egg cholesterol content. It is concluded that strain of bird and dietary level of protein and lysine influenced the production performance of birds. Whilst, egg yolk cholesterol was not reduced by any of the factors studied.

Are wing size, wing shape and asymmetry related to field fitness of Trichogramma egg parasitoids?

The effects of wing shape, wing size, and fluctuating asymmetry in these measures oil the field fitness of T. nr. brassicae and T. pretiosum were investigated. Trichogramma wasps mass-reared on eggs of the factitious host Sitotroga cerealella were released in tomato paddocks and those females ovipositing on Helicoverpo spp. eggs were recaptured. Comparisons of the recaptured group with a sample from the release population were used to assess fitness. Wing data were obtained by positioning landmarks on mounted forewings. Size was then measured as the centroid size computed from landmark distances, while Procrustes analysis followed by principal component analysis was used to assess wing shape. Similar findings were obtained for both Trichogramma species: fitness of wasps was strongly related to wing size and some shape dimensions, but not to the asymmetries of these measures. Wasps which performed well in the field had larger wings and a different wing shape compared to wasps from the mass reared population. Both size and the shape dimensions were linearly associated with fitness although there was also some evidence for non-linear selection on shape. The results suggest that wing shape and wing size are reliable predictors of field fitness for these Trichogramma wasps.

Composition and energy density of eggs from two species of freshwater turtle with twofold ranges in egg size

Lipid, protein, ash, carbohydrate and water content and energy density of eggs were measured from different clutches over a range of egg size in two species of freshwater turtle. Dry egg contents consisted of protein (54-60%), lipid (25-31%) and ash (5-6%) while carbohydrate was found to be negligible (

Effect of type of grain and oil supplement on the performance, blood lipoproteins, egg cholesterol and fatty ccids of laying hens

The effects of type of grain (wheat vs. sorghum) and oil supplement/kg diet [0, 20g olive oil (OL), 20g safflower oil (SO), 10 g OL plus 10 g SO (OLSO)], over a 12-week period on the performance, plasma and lipoproteins lipids [cholesterol (C), triglycerides (TG), phospholipid (P)], and yolk C and fatty acids concentrations of laying hens were studied. Hens fed on the sorghum diet had significantly (P

Prevalência da doença pulmonar obstrutiva crónica em Lisboa, Portugal: estudo burden of obstructive lung disease

Introdução - A prevalência da doença pulmonar obstrutiva crónica (DPOC) apresenta valores muito heterogéneos em todo o mundo. A iniciativa Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) foi desenvolvida para que a prevalência da DPOC possa ser avaliada com metodologia uniformizada. O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar a prevalência da DPOC em adultos com 40 ou mais anos numa população alvo de 2 700 000 habitantes na região de Lisboa, de acordo com o protocolo BOLD. Métodos - A amostra foi estratificada de forma aleatória multifaseada selecionando-se 12 freguesias. O inquérito compreendia um questionário com informação sobre fatores de risco para a DPOC e doença respiratória autoreportada; adicionalmente, foi efetuada espirometria com prova de broncodilatação. Resultados - Foram incluídos 710 participantes com questionário e espirometria aceitáveis. A prevalência estimada da DPOC na população no estadio GOLD I+ foi de 14,2% (IC 95%: 11,1; 18,1) e de 7,3% no estadio ii+ (IC 95%: 4,7; 11,3). A prevalência não ajustada foi de 20,2% (IC 95%: 17,4; 23,3) no estadio i+ e de 9,5% (IC 95%: 7,6; 11,9) no estadio ii+. A prevalência da DPOC no estadio GOLD II+ aumentou com a idade, sendo mais elevada no sexo masculino. A prevalência estimada da DPOC no estadio GOLD I+ foi de 9,2% (IC 95%: 5,9; 14,0) nos não fumadores versus 27,4% (IC 95%: 18,5; 38,5) nos fumadores com carga tabágica de ≥ 20 Unidades Maço Ano. Detetou-se uma fraca concordância entre a referência a diagnóstico médico prévio e o diagnóstico espirométrico, com 86,8% de subdiagnósticos. Conclusões - O achado de uma prevalência estimada da DPOC de 14,2% sugere que esta é uma doença comum na região de Lisboa, contudo com uma elevada proporção de subdiagnósticos. Estes dados apontam para a necessidade de aumentar o grau de conhecimento dos profissionais de saúde sobre a DPOC, bem como a necessidade de maior utilização da espirometria nos cuidados de saúde primários.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Lethal and sublethal effects of essential oils from Pittosporum undulatum and Hedychium gardnerianum on the egg parasitoid Trichogramma cordubensis (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae

Dissertação de Mestrado, Biotecnologia em Controlo Biológico, 6 de Junho de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

Fungal burden in waste industry: an occupational risk to be solved

High loads of fungi have been reported in different types of waste management plants. This study intends to assess fungal contamination in one waste-sorting plant before and after cleaning procedures in order to analyze their effectiveness. Air samples of 50 L were collected through an impaction method, while surface samples, taken at the same time, were collected by the swabbing method and subject to further macro- and microscopic observations. In addition, we collected air samples of 250 L using the impinger Coriolis μ air sampler (Bertin Technologies) at 300 L/min airflow rate in order to perform real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) amplification of genes from specific fungal species, namely Aspergillus fumigatus and Aspergillus flavus complexes, as well as Stachybotrys chartarum species. Fungal quantification in the air ranged from 180 to 5,280 CFU m−3 before cleaning and from 220 to 2,460 CFU m−3 after cleaning procedures. Surfaces presented results that ranged from 29 × 104 to 109 × 104 CFU m−2 before cleaning and from 11 × 104 to 89 × 104 CFU m−2 after cleaning. Statistically significant differences regarding fungal load were not detected between before and after cleaning procedures. Toxigenic strains from A. flavus complex and S. chartarum were not detected by qPCR. Conversely, the A. fumigatus species was successfully detected by qPCR and interestingly it was amplified in two samples where no detection by conventional methods was observed. Overall, these results reveal the inefficacy of the cleaning procedures and that it is important to determine fungal burden in order to carry out risk assessment.

Diabetes burden in Brazil: fraction attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight

OBJECTIVE To estimate the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its percentage attributable to overweight and obesity in Brazil.METHODS The burden of diabetes mellitus was described in terms of disability-adjusted life years, which is the sum of two components: years of life lost and years lived with disability. To calculate the fraction of diabetes mellitus attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight, we used the prevalence of these risk factors according to sex and age groups (> 20 years) obtained from the 2008 Pesquisa Dimensões Sociais das Desigualdades (Social Dimensions of Inequality Survey) and the relative risks derived from the international literature.RESULTS Diabetes mellitus accounted for 5.4% of Brazilian disability-adjusted life years in 2008, with the largest fraction attributed to the morbidity component (years lived with disability). Women exhibited higher values for disability-adjusted life years. In Brazil, 49.2%, 58.3%, and 70.6% of diabetes mellitus in women was attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight, respectively. Among men, these percentages were 40.5%, 45.4%, and 60.3%, respectively. Differences were observed with respect to Brazilian regions and age groups.CONCLUSIONS A large fraction of diabetes mellitus was attributable to preventable individual risk factors and, in about six years, the contribution of these factors significant increased, particularly among men. Policies aimed at promoting healthy lifestyle habits, such as a balanced diet and physical activity, can have a significant impact on reducing the burden of diabetes mellitus in Brazil.