The challenges of representing human behaviour in simulation models:some case examples from supply chain, evacuation modelling and rail disruption

As more of the economy moves from traditional manufacturing to the service sector, the nature of work is becoming less tangible and thus, the representation of human behaviour in models is becoming more important. Representing human behaviour and decision making in models is challenging, both in terms of capturing the essence of the processes, and also the way that those behaviours and decisions are or can be represented in the models themselves. In order to advance understanding in this area, a useful first step is to evaluate and start to classify the various types of behaviour and decision making that are required to be modelled. This talk will attempt to set out and provide an initial classification of the different types of behaviour and decision making that a modeller might want to represent in a model. Then, it will be useful to start to assess the main methods of simulation in terms of their capability in representing these various aspects. The three main simulation methods, System Dynamics, Agent Based Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation all achieve this to varying degrees. There is some evidence that all three methods can, within limits, represent the key aspects of the system being modelled. The three simulation approaches are then assessed for their suitability in modelling these various aspects. Illustration of behavioural modelling will be provided from cases in supply chain management, evacuation modelling and rail disruption.

Sustainability Enhancement of a Turbine Vane Manufacturing Cell through Digital Simulation based Design

Modern manufacturing systems should satisfy emerging needs related to sustainable development. The design of sustainable manufacturing systems can be valuably supported by simulation, traditionally employed mainly for time and cost reduction. In this paper, a multi-purpose digital simulation approach is proposed to deal with sustainable manufacturing systems design through Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and 3D digital human modelling. DES models integrated with data on power consumption of the manufacturing equipment are utilized to simulate different scenarios with the aim to improve productivity as well as energy efficiency, avoiding resource and energy waste. 3D simulation based on digital human modelling is employed to assess human factors issues related to ergonomics and safety of manufacturing systems. The approach is implemented for the sustainability enhancement of a real manufacturing cell of the aerospace industry, automated by robotic deburring. Alternative scenarios are proposed and simulated, obtaining a significant improvement in terms of energy efficiency (−87%) for the new deburring cell, and a reduction of energy consumption around −69% for the coordinate measuring machine, with high potential annual energy cost savings and increased energy efficiency. Moreover, the simulation-based ergonomic assessment of human operator postures allows 25% improvement of the workcell ergonomic index.

Evaluating Risks of Dam-Reservoir Systems Using Efficient Importance Sampling

The occurrence frequency of failure events serve as critical indexes representing the safety status of dam-reservoir systems. Although overtopping is the most common failure mode with significant consequences, this type of event, in most cases, has a small probability. Estimation of such rare event risks for dam-reservoir systems with crude Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation techniques requires a prohibitively large number of trials, where significant computational resources are required to reach the satisfied estimation results. Otherwise, estimation of the disturbances would not be accurate enough. In order to reduce the computation expenses and improve the risk estimation efficiency, an importance sampling (IS) based simulation approach is proposed in this dissertation to address the overtopping risks of dam-reservoir systems. Deliverables of this study mainly include the following five aspects: 1) the reservoir inflow hydrograph model; 2) the dam-reservoir system operation model; 3) the CMC simulation framework; 4) the IS-based Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation framework; and 5) the overtopping risk estimation comparison of both CMC and ISMC simulation. In a broader sense, this study meets the following three expectations: 1) to address the natural stochastic characteristics of the dam-reservoir system, such as the reservoir inflow rate; 2) to build up the fundamental CMC and ISMC simulation frameworks of the dam-reservoir system in order to estimate the overtopping risks; and 3) to compare the simulation results and the computational performance in order to demonstrate the ISMC simulation advantages. The estimation results of overtopping probability could be used to guide the future dam safety investigations and studies, and to supplement the conventional analyses in decision making on the dam-reservoir system improvements. At the same time, the proposed methodology of ISMC simulation is reasonably robust and proved to improve the overtopping risk estimation. The more accurate estimation, the smaller variance, and the reduced CPU time, expand the application of Monte Carlo (MC) technique on evaluating rare event risks for infrastructures.

Noise Reduction Technique for a Simulation Optimisation Study

This paper reports on an attempt to apply Genetic Algorithms to the problem of optimising a complex system, through discrete event simulation (Simulation Optimisation), with a view to reducing the noise associated with such a procedure. We are applying this proposed solution approach to our application test bed, a Crossdocking distribution centre, because it provides a good representative of the random and unpredictable behaviour of complex systems i.e. automated machine random failure and the variability of manual order picker skill. It is known that there is noise in the output of discrete event simulation modelling. However, our interest focuses on the effect of noise on the evaluation of the fitness of candidate solutions within the search space, and the development of techniques to handle this noise. The unique quality of our proposed solution approach is we intend to embed a noise reduction technique in our Genetic Algorithm based optimisation procedure, in order for it to be robust enough to handle noise, efficiently estimate suitable fitness function, and produce good quality solutions with minimal computational effort.

Intelligent pipeline control - a simulation study in the automotive sector

Automotive producers are aiming to make their order fulfilment processes more flexible. Opening the pipeline of planned products for dynamic allocation to dealers/ customers is a significant step to be more flexible but the behaviour of such Virtual-Build-To-Order systems are complex to predict and their performance varies significantly as product variety levels change. This study investigates the potential for intelligent control of the pipeline feed, taking into account the current status of inventory (level and mix) and of the volume and mix of unsold products in the planning pipeline, as well as the demand profile. Five ‘intelligent’ methods for selecting the next product to be planned into the production pipeline are analysed using a discrete event simulation model and compared to the unintelligent random feed. The methods are tested under two conditions, firstly when customers must be fulfilled with the exact product they request, and secondly when customers trade-off a shorter waiting time for compromise in specification. The two forms of customer behaviour have a substantial impact on the performance of the methods and there are also significant differences between the methods themselves. When the producer has an accurate model of customer demand, methods that attempt to harmonise the mix in the system to the demand distribution are superior.

Optimisation of a crossdocking distribution centre simulation model

This paper reports on continuing research into the modelling of an order picking process within a Crossdocking distribution centre using Simulation Optimisation. The aim of this project is to optimise a discrete event simulation model and to understand factors that affect finding its optimal performance. Our initial investigation revealed that the precision of the selected simulation output performance measure and the number of replications required for the evaluation of the optimisation objective function through simulation influences the ability of the optimisation technique. We experimented with Common Random Numbers, in order to improve the precision of our simulation output performance measure, and intended to use the number of replications utilised for this purpose as the initial number of replications for the optimisation of our Crossdocking distribution centre simulation model. Our results demonstrate that we can improve the precision of our selected simulation output performance measure value using Common Random Numbers at various levels of replications. Furthermore, after optimising our Crossdocking distribution centre simulation model, we are able to achieve optimal performance using fewer simulations runs for the simulation model which uses Common Random Numbers as compared to the simulation model which does not use Common Random Numbers.

Spinous Process Osteochondroma as a Rare Cause of Lumbar Pain

We present a case of a 5th Lumbar Vertebra (L5) spinous process osteochondroma as a rare cause of lumbar pain in an old patient. A 70-year-old male presented with progressive and disabling lower lumbar pain. Tenderness over the central and left paraspinal area of the lower lumbar region and a palpable mass were evident. CT scan showed a mass arising from the spinous process of L5. Marginal resection of the tumor was performed through a posterior approach. The histological study revealed an osteochondroma. After surgery, pain was completely relieved. After one year there was no evidence of local recurrence or symptoms. Osteochondromas rarely involve the spine, but when they do symptoms like pain, radiculopathy/myelopathy, or cosmetic deformity may occur. The imagiologic exam of election for diagnosis is CT scan. When symptomatic the treatment of choice is surgical resection. The most concerning complication of osteochondromas is malignant transformation, a rare event.

A safety assessment methodology applied to CNS/ATM-based air traffic control system

In the last decades, the air traffic system has been changing to adapt itself to new social demands, mainly the safe growth of worldwide traffic capacity. Those changes are ruled by the Communication, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) paradigm, based on digital communication technologies (mainly satellites) as a way of improving communication, surveillance, navigation and air traffic management services. However, CNS/ATM poses new challenges and needs, mainly related to the safety assessment process. In face of these new challenges, and considering the main characteristics of the CNS/ATM, a methodology is proposed at this work by combining ""absolute"" and ""relative"" safety assessment methods adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in ICAO Doc.9689 [14], using Fluid Stochastic Petri Nets (FSPN) as the modeling formalism, and compares the safety metrics estimated from the simulation of both the proposed (in analysis) and the legacy system models. To demonstrate its usefulness, the proposed methodology was applied to the ""Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcasting"" (ADS-B) based air traffic control system. As conclusions, the proposed methodology assured to assess CNS/ATM system safety properties, in which FSPN formalism provides important modeling capabilities, and discrete event simulation allowing the estimation of the desired safety metric. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Menstrual and hormonal alterations in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus

Menstrual cycles of 30 patients with juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) were compared with 30 age-matched controls. The mean age of patients with JSLE and controls was similar (17.4 +/- 3.2 vs 17.06 +/- 2.08 years, P = 0.66). The mean menarche age was higher in JSLE than controls (13.13 +/- 1.4 vs 11.56 +/- 1.5 years, P = 0.0008). On the contrary, the mean maternal menarche age was similar in both groups (P = 0.62). Menstrual abnormalities and longer length cycles were more frequently observed in JSLE than controls (63% vs 10%, P = 0.0001; 23% vs 0%, P = 0.0105, respectively). The median of follicle stimulating hormone was significantly higher in patients with JSLE compared with controls (4.6 vs 3.4 IU/L, P = 0.0207), and the median of progesterone was lower (32.5 vs 70 ng/mL, P = 0.0033). The median Of luteinizing hormone was lower in patients with JSLE with menstrual abnormalities versus normal cycles (2.9 vs 5.5 IU/L, P = 0.019) and both had a high percentage of decreased progesterone levels (63% vs 73%, P = 0.70). Our findings support the notion that menstrual disturbances are frequent and may be associated with pituitary dysfunction leading to a decreased progesterone production. We also reported that in spite of premature ovarian failure being a rare event in JSLE the follicular reserve seems to be low regardless of intravenous cyclophosphamide treatment. Lupus (2009) 18, 38-43.

SPONTANEOUS FRACTURE OF THE FEMORAL NECK FOLLOWING PFN REMOVAL

Femoral neck fracture without associated trauma following consolidation of a transtrochanteric fracture is a rare event. The authors report a case of transtrochanteric fracture that was treated with PFN and which presented fracturing of the femoral neck two weeks after removal of the device. This occurrence was treated with partial arthroplasty.

Screening of autosomal gene deletions in patients with hypogonadotropic hypogonadism using multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification: detection of a hemizygosis for the fibroblast growth factor receptor 1

P>Objective Congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism with anosmia (Kallmann syndrome) or with normal sense of smell is a heterogeneous genetic disorder caused by defects in the synthesis, secretion and action of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH). Mutations involving autosomal genes have been identified in approximately 30% of all cases of hypogonadotropic hypogonadism. However, most studies that screened patients with hypogonadotropic hypogonadism for gene mutations did not include gene dosage methodologies. Therefore, it remains to be determined whether patients without detected point mutation carried a heterozygous deletion of one or more exons. Measurements We used the multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) assay to evaluate the potential contribution of heterozygous deletions of FGFR1, GnRH1, GnRHR, GPR54 and NELF genes in the aetiology of GnRH deficiency. Patients We studied a mutation-negative cohort of 135 patients, 80 with Kallmann syndrome and 55 with normosmic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism. Results One large heterozygous deletion involving all FGFR1 exons was identified in a female patient with sporadic normosmic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism and mild dimorphisms as ogival palate and cavus foot. FGFR1 hemizygosity was confirmed by gene dosage with comparative multiplex and real-time PCRs. Conclusions FGFR1 or other autosomal gene deletion is a possible but very rare event and does not account for a significant number of sporadic or inherited cases of isolated GnRH deficiency.

Successful defibrillation of a dental patient in cardiac arrest

Cardiac arrest is a very rare event in a dental patient. However, practitioners have a duty of care to their patients if ever such an event occurs. The cardiac arrest discussed in this case report occurred in an elderly person with an implanted pacemaker whilst undergoing restorative dental treatment. Cardiac arrest was diagnosed and cardiopulmonary resuscitation instituted immediately, followed within three minutes by successful defibrillation using the School's semi-automatic defibrillator.

Carpogenic germination of Sclerotinia minor and potential distribution in Australia

This study confirms that Australian isolates of Sclerotinia minor can produce fertile apothecia and further demonstrates that ascospores collected from these apothecia are pathogenic to sunflower (Helianthus annuus). Sunflower is a known host of the related fungus Sclerotinia sclerotiorum and is grown in some regions where S. minor is known to occur. Head rot symptoms were produced following inoculation with S. minor ascospores. Predictive modeling using CLIMEX software suggested that conditions suitable for carpogenic germination of S. minor probably occur in Australia particularly in southern regions. Carpogenic germination is probably a rare event in northern regions and, if it does occur, probably does not coincide with anthesis in sunflower crops, therefore allowing disease escape.

Pasteurization of human milk to prevent transmission of Chagas disease

Although admittedly transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi infection through breastfeeding is a rare event, it involves serious risks. To test the effectiveness of pasteurization in preventing this mode of infection, three sets of samples of human milk were tested: a - contaminated with T. cruzi and pasteurized; b - contaminated with T. cruzi and non-pasteurized; c - non-contaminated and pasteurized. Samples from all sets were orally and intraperitoneally administered to 90 BALB/c mice. The animals inoculated with contaminated, non-pasteurized samples, got the infection. Controls and the animals inoculated with contaminated and pasteurized milk were not infected. The hypothesis was accepted that pasteurization inactivates T. cruzi trypomastigotes.

Oral cysticercosis: case report and review of the literature

Cysticercosis is a condition that occurs when man is infested by the larvae of Taenia solium, acting as an intermediate host instead of definitive. Oral cysticercosis is a rare event, and it represents a difficulty in clinical diagnosis. A case of oral cysticercosis in a 23-year-old white female who presented a painless swelling in the dorsal portion of the tongue is reported. An excisional biopsy was performed and histopathological examination revealed a cystic cavity containing the tapeworm.