Optimal designs for the prediction in hierarchical random coefficient regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015

Lp-solutions to BSDEs with super-linear growth coefficient. Application to degenerate semilinear PDEs.

We consider multidimensional backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). We prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions when the coefficient grow super-linearly, and moreover, can be neither locally Lipschitz in the variable y nor in the variable z. This is done with super-linear growth coefficient and a p-integrable terminal condition (p & 1). As application, we establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions to degenerate semilinear PDEs with superlinear growth generator and an Lp-terminal data, p & 1. Our result cover, for instance, the case of PDEs with logarithmic nonlinearities.

How do technical change and technological distance influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient?

How does technical change influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient? Using a nonlinear version of Okun’s Law augmented with technical change and technological distance, we show that the impact of output movements on unemployment variations is influenced by the imitation or innovation origins of technical change

3D geoelectrical monitoring to follow hydric soil behaviour during rainfall

RESUME Durant les dernières années, les méthodes électriques ont souvent été utilisées pour l'investigation des structures de subsurface. L'imagerie électrique (Electrical Resistivity Tomography, ERT) est une technique de prospection non-invasive et spatialement intégrée. La méthode ERT a subi des améliorations significatives avec le développement de nouveaux algorithmes d'inversion et le perfectionnement des techniques d'acquisition. La technologie multicanale et les ordinateurs de dernière génération permettent la collecte et le traitement de données en quelques heures. Les domaines d'application sont nombreux et divers: géologie et hydrogéologie, génie civil et géotechnique, archéologie et études environnementales. En particulier, les méthodes électriques sont souvent employées dans l'étude hydrologique de la zone vadose. Le but de ce travail est le développement d'un système de monitorage 3D automatique, non- invasif, fiable, peu coûteux, basé sur une technique multicanale et approprié pour suivre les variations de résistivité électrique dans le sous-sol lors d'événements pluvieux. En raison des limitations techniques et afin d'éviter toute perturbation physique dans la subsurface, ce dispositif de mesure emploie une installation non-conventionnelle, où toutes les électrodes de courant sont placées au bord de la zone d'étude. Le dispositif le plus approprié pour suivre les variations verticales et latérales de la résistivité électrique à partir d'une installation permanente a été choisi à l'aide de modélisations numériques. Les résultats démontrent que le dispositif pôle-dipôle offre une meilleure résolution que le dispositif pôle-pôle et plus apte à détecter les variations latérales et verticales de la résistivité électrique, et cela malgré la configuration non-conventionnelle des électrodes. Pour tester l'efficacité du système proposé, des données de terrain ont été collectées sur un site d'étude expérimental. La technique de monitorage utilisée permet de suivre le processus d'infiltration 3D pendant des événements pluvieux. Une bonne corrélation est observée entre les résultats de modélisation numérique et les données de terrain, confirmant par ailleurs que le dispositif pôle-dipôle offre une meilleure résolution que le dispositif pôle-pôle. La nouvelle technique de monitorage 3D de résistivité électrique permet de caractériser les zones d'écoulement préférentiel et de caractériser le rôle de la lithologie et de la pédologie de manière quantitative dans les processus hydrologiques responsables d'écoulement de crue. ABSTRACT During the last years, electrical methods were often used for the investigation of subsurface structures. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) has been reported to be a useful non-invasive and spatially integrative prospecting technique. The ERT method provides significant improvements, with the developments of new inversion algorithms, and the increasing efficiency of data collection techniques. Multichannel technology and powerful computers allow collecting and processing resistivity data within few hours. Application domains are numerous and varied: geology and hydrogeology, civil engineering and geotechnics, archaeology and environmental studies. In particular, electrical methods are commonly used in hydrological studies of the vadose zone. The aim of this study was to develop a multichannel, automatic, non-invasive, reliable and inexpensive 3D monitoring system designed to follow electrical resistivity variations in soil during rainfall. Because of technical limitations and in order to not disturb the subsurface, the proposed measurement device uses a non-conventional electrode set-up, where all the current electrodes are located near the edges of the survey grid. Using numerical modelling, the most appropriate arrays were selected to detect vertical and lateral variations of the electrical resistivity in the framework of a permanent surveying installation system. The results show that a pole-dipole array has a better resolution than a pole-pole array and can successfully follow vertical and lateral resistivity variations despite the non-conventional electrode configuration used. Field data are then collected at a test site to assess the efficiency of the proposed monitoring technique. The system allows following the 3D infiltration processes during a rainfall event. A good correlation between the results of numerical modelling and field data results can be observed since the field pole-dipole data give a better resolution image than the pole-pole data. The new device and technique makes it possible to better characterize the zones of preferential flow and to quantify the role of lithology and pedology in flood- generating hydrological processes.

Une IgA à coefficient de sédimentation 11 S dans les sécrétions externes de l'espèce bovine

The sedimentation coefficient of a secretory IgA found in bovine colostrum and saliva is compared with that of IgG and IgM from the same colostrum. The IgA fraction gives a value of 10.8 S, whereas the major part of the IgG has a value of 7.1 S and the IgM 19.2 S. The sedimentation coefficient of the free secretory piece has also been determined: its value is 4.95 S.

Variabilité intra/interobservateur du coefficient de diffusion apparente dans les lésions hépatiques malignes traitées

Objectifs : Le coefficient de diffusion apparente (ADC) est utilisé pour le suivi des lésions hépatiques malignes traitées. Cependant, l'ADC est généralement mesuré dans la lésion entière, alors que cela devrait être réalisé dans la zone la plus restreinte (ZLPR), cette dernière représentant potentiellement du résidu tumoral. Notre objectif était d'évaluer la variabilité inter/intraobservateur de l'ADC dans la tumeur entière et dans la ZLPR. Matériels et méthodes : Quarante patients traités par chimioembolisation ou radiofréquence ont été évalués. Après consensus, deux lecteurs ont indépendamment mesuré l'ADC de la lésion entière et de la ZLPR. Les mêmes mesures ont été répétées deux semaines plus tard. Le test de Spearman et la méthode de Bland-Altman ont été utilisées. Résultats : La corrélation interobservateur de l'ADC dans la lésion entière et dans la ZLPR était de 0,962 et de 0,884. La corrélation intraobservateur était de 0,992 et de 0,979, respectivement. Les limites de variabilité interobservateur (mm2/sec*10 - 3) étaient entre -0,25/+0,28 dans la lésion entière et entre -0,51/+0,46 dans la ZLPR. Les limites de variabilité intraobservateur étaient respectivement : -0,25/+0,24 et -0,43/+0,47. Conclusion : La corrélation inter/intraobservateur dans les mesures d'ADC est bonne. Toutefois, une variabilité limitée existe et doit être considérée lors de l'interprétation des valeurs d'ADC des tumeurs hépatiques.

Association of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) population density with climate variables in Montes Claros, an area of American visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

In the present paper, we evaluate the relationship between climate variables and population density of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Montes Claros, an area of active transmission of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Brazil. Entomological captures were performed in 10 selected districts of the city, between September 2002-August 2003. A total of 773 specimens of L. longipalpiswere captured in the period and the population density could be associated with local climate variables (cumulative rainfall, average temperature and relative humidity) through a mathematical linear model with a determination coefficient (Rsqr) of 0.752. Although based on an oversimplified statistical analysis, as far as the vector is concerned, this approach showed to be potentially useful as a starting point to guide control measures for AVL in Montes Claros.

Interobserver and intraobserver variability of the apparent diffusion coefficient in treated malignant hepatic lesions on a 3.0T machine: measurements in the whole lesion versus in the area with the most restricted diffusion.

PURPOSE: To assess the inter/intraobserver variability of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) measurements in treated hepatic lesions and to compare ADC measurements in the whole lesion and in the area with the most restricted diffusion (MRDA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-five patients with treated malignant liver lesions were examined on a 3.0T machine. After agreeing on the best ADC image, two readers independently measured the ADC values in the whole lesion and in the MRDA. These measurements were repeated 1 month later. The Bland-Altman method, Spearman correlation coefficients, and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used to evaluate the measurements. RESULTS: Interobserver variability for ADC measurements in the whole lesion and in the MRDA was 0.17 x 10(-3) mm(2)/s [-0.17, +0.17] and 0.43 x 10(-3) mm(2)/s [-0.45, +0.41], respectively. Intraobserver limits of agreement could be as low as [-0.10, +0.12] 10(-3) mm(2)/s and [-0.20, +0.33] 10(-3) mm(2)/s for measurements in the whole lesion and in the MRDA, respectively. CONCLUSION: A limited variability in ADC measurements does exist, and it should be considered when interpreting ADC values of hepatic malignancies. This is especially true for the measurements of the minimal ADC.

Hidrossedimentologia e disponibilidade hídrica da bacia hidrográfica da Barragem de Poilão

TEIXEIRA, José João Lopes. Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Centro de Ciências Agrárias da Universidade Federal do Ceará, Agosto de 2011. Hidrossedimentologia e disponibilidade hídrica da bacia hidrográfica da Barragem de Poilão, Cabo Verde. Orientador: José Carlos de Araújo. Examinadores: George Leite Mamede, Pedro Henrique Augusto Medeiros. O Arquipélago de Cabo Verde, situado na costa ocidental africana, sofre influência do deserto de Saara tornando o clima caraterizado por pluviometria muito baixa e distribuída irregularmente no espaço e no tempo. As chuvas são muito concentradas, gerando grandes escoamentos para o mar. O aumento da disponibilidade hídrica requer além da construção e manutenção de infraestrutura de captação e conservação de águas pluviais, uma gestão eficiente destes recursos. Atualmente, constitui um dos eixos estratégicos da política do estado de Cabo Verde, a captação, armazenamento e mobilização de águas superficiais através de construção de barragens. Estudos do comportamento hidrológico e sedimentológico do reservatório e da sua bacia de contribuição constituem premissas básicas para um ótimo dimensionamento, gestão e monitoramento da referida infraestrutura. É neste sentido que o presente estudo objetivou sistematizar informações hidrológicas e sedimentológicas da bacia hidrográfica da Barragem de Poilão (BP) e apresentar proposta operacional de longo prazo. A área de estudo ocupa 28 km² a montante da Bacia Hidrográfica da Ribeira Seca (BHRS) na Ilha de Santiago. A altitude da bacia varia de 99 m, situada na cota da barragem, até 1394 m. Para o estudo, foram utilizados e sistematizados, série pluviométrica de 1973 a 2010, registos de vazão instantânea do período 1984 a 2000 e registos agroclimáticos da área de estudo (1981 a 2004). Para o preenchimento das falhas tanto dos escoamentos como da descarga sólida em suspensão, foi utilizado o método de curva chave. Para estimativa de produção de sedimentos na bacia, aplicou-se a Equação Universal de Perda de Solo (USLE) e a razão de aporte de sedimentos (SDR). O índice de retenção de sedimentos no reservatório foi estimado pelo método de Brune e a distribuição de sedimento pelo método empírico de redução de área descrito por Borland e Miller e, revisado por Lara. Para gerar e simular curvas de vazão versus garantia foi utilizado código computacional VYELAS, desenvolvido por Araújo e baseado na abordagem de Campos. Também foi avaliada a redução da vazão de retirada do período 2006 a 2026, provocado pelo assoreamento do reservatório. Concluiu-se que em média a precipitação anual é de 323 mm, concentrando-se 73% nos meses de agosto e setembro; a bacia de contribuição apresenta como valor um número de curva (CN) de 76, com abstração inicial (Ia) de 26 mm, coeficiente de escoamento de 19% e uma vazão anual afluente de 1,7 hm³(cv= 0,73); a disponibilidade hídrica para uma garantia de 85% é avaliada em 0,548 hm³/ano e não 0,671 hm³/ano como indica o projeto original. Com uma descarga sólida estimada em 22.185 m³/ano conclui-se que até o ano de 2026, a capacidade do reservatório reduz a uma taxa de 1,8 % ao ano, devido ao assoreamento, provocando uma redução de 41% da disponibilidade hídrica inicial. Nessa altura, as perdas por evaporação e sangria serão da ordem de 81% da vazão afluente de entrada no reservatório. Na base desses resultados se apresentou proposta de operação da BP.

Constant coefficient tests for random coefficient regression

Random coefficient regression models have been applied in differentfields and they constitute a unifying setup for many statisticalproblems. The nonparametric study of this model started with Beranand Hall (1992) and it has become a fruitful framework. In thispaper we propose and study statistics for testing a basic hypothesisconcerning this model: the constancy of coefficients. The asymptoticbehavior of the statistics is investigated and bootstrapapproximations are used in order to determine the critical values ofthe test statistics. A simulation study illustrates the performanceof the proposals.

iLOGP: A Simple, Robust, and Efficient Description of n-Octanol/Water Partition Coefficient for Drug Design Using the GB/SA Approach.

The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.

An experimental test of rainfall as a control agent of Glycaspis brimblecombei Moore (Hemiptera, Psyllidae) on seedlings of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehn (Myrtaceae)

An experimental test of rainfall as a control agent of Glycaspis brimblecombei Moore (Hemiptera, Psyllidae) on seedlings of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehn (Myrtaceae). Glycaspis brimblecombei is one the greatest threats to eucalyptus plantations in Brazil. The effects of rainfall to reduce the abundance of lerp of Glycaspis brimblecombei on experimentally infested seedlings of Eucalyptus camaldulensis were assessed. The number of lerps on the adaxial and abaxial surfaces of every leaf of 60 seedlings was recorded, before and after submission to the following treatments: "artificial rain", "leaf wetting" and control. A drastic reduction in lerp abundance per plant was observed after the treatments "leaf wetting" and artificial rain (F = 53.630; p < 0.001), whereas lerp abundance remained roughly constant in the control treatment along the experiment (F = 1.450; p = 0.232). At the end of the experiment, lerp abundance was significantly lower in both the "artificial rain" and "leaf wetting" than in the control treatment. Two days of rainfall simulation were sufficient to decrease more than 50% of the lerp population, with almost 100% of effectiveness after 5 days of experiment. Our results indicate that lerp solubilization and mechanical removal by water are potential tools to the population regulation of G. brimblecombei on E. camaldulensis seedlings.

Anomalous rainfall and associated atmospheric circulation in the northeast Spanish Mediterranean area and its relationship to sediment fluidization events in a lake

Changes in the dynamics of sediment transport in a Mediterranean lake (sediment fluidization events) are linked to atmospheric circulations patterns (trough monthly precipitation). In the basins of Lake Banyoles, located in the northeast of Spain, water enters mainly through subterranean springs, and associated fluctuations in the vertical migration of sediment distribution (fluidization events) present episodic behavior as a result of episodic rainfall in the area. The initiation of the fluidization events takes place when the monthly rainfall is ∼2.7 times greater than the mean monthly rainfall of the rainiest months in the area, especially in spring (April and May), October, and December. The duration of these events is found to be well correlated with the accumulated rainfall of the preceding 10 months before the process initiation. The rainfall, in turn, is mainly associated with six atmospheric circulation patterns among the 19 fundamental circulations that emerged in an earlier study focused on significant rainfall days in Mediterranean Spain. Among them, accentuated surface lows over the northeast of Spain, general northeasterly winds by low pressure centered to the east of Balearic Islands and short baroclinic waves over the Iberian Peninsula, with easterly flows over the northeastern coast of Spain, are found the most relevant atmospheric circulations that drive heavy rainfall events