Dynamic and thermodynamic anomalies of water at low temperatures: from bulk water to reverse micelles and DNA hydration layer

Liquid water is known to exhibit remarkable thermodynamic and dynamic anomalies, ranging from solvation properties in supercritical state to an apparent divergence of the linear response functions at a low temperature. Anomalies in various dynamic properties of water have also been observed in the hydration layer of proteins, DNA grooves and inside the nanocavity, such as reverse micelles and nanotubes. Here we report studies on the molecular origin of these anomalies in supercooled water, in the grooves of DNA double helix and reverse micelles. The anomalies have been discussed in terms of growing correlation length and intermittent population fluctuation of 4- and 5-coordinated species. We establish correlation between thermodynamic response functions and mean squared species number fluctuation. Lifetime analysis of 4- and 5-coordinated species reveals interesting differences between the role of the two species in supercooled and constrained water. The nature and manifestations of the apparent and much discussed liquid-liquid transition under confinement are found to be markedly different from that in the bulk. We find an interesting `faster than bulk' relaxation in reverse micelles which we attribute to frustration effects created by competition between the correlations imposed by surface interactions and that imposed by hydrogen bond network of water.

A Stochastic Chemical Dynamic Approach to Correlate Autoimmunity and Optimal Vitamin-D Range

Motivated by several recent experimental observations that vitamin-D could interact with antigen presenting cells (APCs) and T-lymphocyte cells (T-cells) to promote and to regulate different stages of immune response, we developed a coarse grained but general kinetic model in an attempt to capture the role of vitamin-D in immunomodulatory responses. Our kinetic model, developed using the ideas of chemical network theory, leads to a system of nine coupled equations that we solve both by direct and by stochastic (Gillespie) methods. Both the analyses consistently provide detail information on the dependence of immune response to the variation of critical rate parameters. We find that although vitamin-D plays a negligible role in the initial immune response, it exerts a profound influence in the long term, especially in helping the system to achieve a new, stable steady state. The study explores the role of vitamin-D in preserving an observed bistability in the phase diagram (spanned by system parameters) of immune regulation, thus allowing the response to tolerate a wide range of pathogenic stimulation which could help in resisting autoimmune diseases. We also study how vitamin-D affects the time dependent population of dendritic cells that connect between innate and adaptive immune responses. Variations in dose dependent response of anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory T-cell populations to vitamin-D correlate well with recent experimental results. Our kinetic model allows for an estimation of the range of optimum level of vitamin-D required for smooth functioning of the immune system and for control of both hyper-regulation and inflammation. Most importantly, the present study reveals that an overdose or toxic level of vitamin-D or any steroid analogue could give rise to too large a tolerant response, leading to an inefficacy in adaptive immune function.

Changes in the size structure of the yellowfin tuna population of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from 1947 to 1955

ENGLISH: Morphometric studies by Godsil (1948), Godsil and Greenhood (1951), Royce (1953) and Schaefer (1952, 1955) have indicated that the yellowfin tuna of the Eastern Pacific are distinct from those of the Central Pacific. Tagging of yellowfin tuna by the California Department of Fish and Game, and by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission in the Eastern Pacific, and by the Pacific Oceanic Fishery Investigations in the Central Pacific, have not yet revealed any migrations between these areas. Shimada and Schaefer (1956) have compared changes in population abundance and fishing intensity, considering the population in the Eastern Pacific as a separate entity. They conclude " ... the amount of fishing has had a real effect upon the stock of Eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna, taken in the aggregate, over the period studied. The evidence suggests also that for this species the intensity of fishing in some recent years has reached and might have even exceeded the level corresponding to the maximum equilibrium yield." Tagging experiments by the California Department of Fish and Game and by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission have yielded returns in the order of one to five percent (Roedel 1954, and unpublished data of both agencies), a level much lower than that at which fishing intensity would be expected to noticeably affect the population size. These results are probably a reflection of the inadequacies of the present tagging methods, but they could lend doubt to the conclusions of Shimada and Schaefer. It is desirable, therefore, to examine other, independent, evidence as to the effects of fishing on the population. At the high levels of fishing intensity suggested by Shimada and Schaefer, in addition to changes in quantity, measurable changes would be expected to have occurred in the quality of the yellowfin tuna stocks, because the average age and size of the fish would have been reduced by the high mortality rates accompanying high fishing intensities. A continuing regular program of sampling catches and determining their length composition, to assess changes in the size composition of the stocks, was initiated by the Commission in 1954 but direct measurements are not available for the earlier, more dynamic period of growth of the fishery. Consequently, other, more general indications of possible changes in the size composition were sought. SPANISH: Los estudios morfométricos efectudos por Godsil (1948), Godsil y Greenhood (1951), Royce (1953) y Schaefer (1952, 1955), han demostrado que el atún aleta amarilla del Pacífico Oriental es distinto del que habita el PacÍfico Central. Los experimentos del Departamento de Pesca y Caza de California y de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical en el Pacífico Oriental, así como los de las Investigaciones Pesqueras del Océano Pacífico en el Pacífico Central,consistentes en la marcación de atunes aleta amarilla, aún no han puesto de manifiesto movimientos migratorios entre dichas áreas. Shimada y Schaefer (1956) han hecho estudios comparativos sobre la abundancia de la población y la intensidad de la pesca, considerando a la población del Pacífico Oriental como una entidad separada. Su conclusión es que " ... la intensidad de la pesca ha tenido un definido efecto sobre la población del atún aleta amarilla del Pacífico Oriental, tomada en conjunto, a lo largo del período estudiado. La evidencia de que se dispone sugiere así mismo que, por lo que hace a esta especie, la intensidad de la pesca en los últimos años ha alcanzado y quizás aún sobrepasado el nivel correspondiente a la máxima pesca de equilibrio". Los experimentos de mar•cación del Departamento de Pesca y Caza de California y de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical han producido recuperaciones ,entre el uno y el cinco por ciento (Roedel 1954 y datos inéditos de ambos organismos), lo que constituye un nivel mucho más bajo de aquél en que la intensidad de la pesca podría considerarse que afectaría notablemente el tamaño de la población. Estos resultados reflejan probablemente lo inadecuados que son aún los métodos de marcación, pero ellos podrían, quizá, poner en tela de juicio las conclusiones de Shimada y Schaefer. Por lo tanto,es deseable examinar otras fuentes de evidencia independientes, relacionadas con el efecto que la pesca tiene sobre la población. En efecto, si los altos índices de pesca sugeridos por Shimada y Schaefer son correctos, es de esperar que, además de los cambios en la magnitud de la población, se hayan producido otros, concomitantes y sensibles, en la calidad de los stocks de atún aleta amarilla, puesto que tanto el promedio de edad como el de tamaño de los individuos habrían disminuído debido a las elevadas tasas de mortalidad inherentes a las altas intensidades de pesca. En 1954 la Comisión inició un programa ininterrumpido para tomar muestras y determinar en ellas las frecuencias de tallas y evaluar de este modo los cambios correlativos que tuvieran lugar en los stocks pero, infortunadamente, este sistema de evaluación directa no fué practicado en el período anterior, que fué precisamente el de rápida expansión de la pesquería. En tal virtud, hubo de ser necesario buscar indicios más generales referentes a los cambios posibles en la composición de tamaños. (PDF contains 20 pages.)

Effect of phases on the dynamic evolution of a Lambda system with spontaneously generated coherence

The dynamic evolution of a A system coupled by two strong coherent fields is investigated by taking spontaneously generated coherence (SGC) into account. By numericaly simulation, it is shown that the relative phase of the two coherent fields affects significantly the time scale to the coherent population trapping state. In addition, an analytical expression to the evolution rate which is consistent with the numerical results is given. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural dynamic eutrophication models

This article discusses problems of modelling the seasonal succession of algal species in lakes and reservoirs, and the adaptive selection of certain groups of algae in response to changes in the inputs and relative concentrations of nutrients and other environmental variables. A new generation of quantitative models is being developed which attempts to translate some important biological properties of species (survival, variation, inheritance, reproductive rates and population growth) into predictions about the survival of the fittest, where ”fitness” is measured or estimated in thermodynamic terms. The concept of ”exergy” and its calculation is explored to examine maximal exergy as a measure of fitness in ecosystems, and its use for calculating changes in species composition by means of structural dynamic models. These models accomodate short-term changes in parameters that affect the adaptive responses (species selection) of algae.

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

How neurons migrate: a dynamic in-silico model of neuronal migration in the developing cortex.

BACKGROUND: Neuronal migration, the process by which neurons migrate from their place of origin to their final position in the brain, is a central process for normal brain development and function. Advances in experimental techniques have revealed much about many of the molecular components involved in this process. Notwithstanding these advances, how the molecular machinery works together to govern the migration process has yet to be fully understood. Here we present a computational model of neuronal migration, in which four key molecular entities, Lis1, DCX, Reelin and GABA, form a molecular program that mediates the migration process. RESULTS: The model simulated the dynamic migration process, consistent with in-vivo observations of morphological, cellular and population-level phenomena. Specifically, the model reproduced migration phases, cellular dynamics and population distributions that concur with experimental observations in normal neuronal development. We tested the model under reduced activity of Lis1 and DCX and found an aberrant development similar to observations in Lis1 and DCX silencing expression experiments. Analysis of the model gave rise to unforeseen insights that could guide future experimental study. Specifically: (1) the model revealed the possibility that under conditions of Lis1 reduced expression, neurons experience an oscillatory neuron-glial association prior to the multipolar stage; and (2) we hypothesized that observed morphology variations in rats and mice may be explained by a single difference in the way that Lis1 and DCX stimulate bipolar motility. From this we make the following predictions: (1) under reduced Lis1 and enhanced DCX expression, we predict a reduced bipolar migration in rats, and (2) under enhanced DCX expression in mice we predict a normal or a higher bipolar migration. CONCLUSIONS: We present here a system-wide computational model of neuronal migration that integrates theory and data within a precise, testable framework. Our model accounts for a range of observable behaviors and affords a computational framework to study aspects of neuronal migration as a complex process that is driven by a relatively simple molecular program. Analysis of the model generated new hypotheses and yet unobserved phenomena that may guide future experimental studies. This paper thus reports a first step toward a comprehensive in-silico model of neuronal migration.

Tensor density matrix theory for determining population and alignment of symmetric top molecule using rotationally unresolved fluorescence

General expressions used for transforming raw laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) intensity into the population and alignment parameters of a symmetric top molecule are derived by employing the density matrix approach. The molecular population and alignment are described by molecular state multipoles. The results are presented for a general excitation-detection geometry and then applied to some special geometries. In general cases, the LIF intensity is a complex function of the initial molecular state multipoles, the dynamic factors and the excitation-detection geometrical factors. It contains a population and 14 alignment multipoles. How to extract all initial state multipoles from the rotationally unresolved emission LIF intensity is discussed in detail.

How does Calanus helgolandicus maintain its population in a variable environment? Analysis of a 25-year time series from the English Channel

Calanus helgolandicus is a key copepod of the NE Atlantic and fringing shelves, with a distribution that is expanding northwards with oceanic warming. The Plymouth L4 site has warmed over the past 25-years, and experiences large variations in the timing and availability of food for C. helgolandicus. Here we examine the degree to which these changes translate into variation in reproductive output and subsequently C. helgolandicus population size. Egg production rates (eggs female−1 day−1) were maximal in the spring to early-summer period of diatom blooms and high ciliate abundance, rather than during the equally large autumn blooms of autotrophic dinoflagellates. Egg hatch success was lower in spring however, with a greater proportion of naupliar deformities then also. Both the timing and the mean summer abundance of C. helgolandicus (CI–CVI) reflected those of spring total reproductive output. However this relationship was driven by inter-annual variability in female abundance and not that of egg production per female, which ranged only two-fold. Winter abundance of C. helgolandicus at L4 was much more variable than abundance in other seasons, and reflected conditions from the previous growing season. However, these low winter abundances had no clear carry-over signal to the following season’s population size. Overall, the C. helgolandicus population appears to be surprisingly resilient at this dynamic, inshore site, showing no long-term phenology shift and only a four-fold variation in mean abundance between years. This dampening effect may reflect a series of mortality sources, associated with the timing of stratification in the early part of the season, likely affecting egg sinking and loss, plus intense, density-dependent mortality of early stages in mid-summer likely through predation.

Accommodative dysfunction in children with cerebral palsy: a population based study

Purpose. To determine the prevalence, nature, and degree of accommodative dysfunction among children with different types and severities of cerebral palsy (CP) in Northern Ireland. Methods. Ninety subjects with CP (aged 4–15 years) were recruited through the Northern Ireland CP Register (NICPR). Modified Nott dynamic retinoscopy was used to measure lag and lead of accommodation at three test distances: 25 cm (4 D), 16.7 cm (6 D), and 10 cm (10 D) with the distance correction in place. Accommodative function was also assessed in an age-matched control group (n = 125) for comparison. Each subject’s neurologic status was derived from the NICPR. Results. Children with CP demonstrate significantly reduced accommodative responses compared with their neurologically normal peers. Of the subjects with CP, 57.6% demonstrated an accommodative lag outside normal limits at one or more distances. Reduced accommodative responses were significantly associated with more severe motor and intellectual impairments (ANOVA P = 0.001, P < 0.01, respectively). Conclusions. Brain injury such as that present in CP has a significant impact on accommodative function. These findings have implications for the optometric care of children with CP and inform our understanding of the impact of early brain injury on visual development.

Simplification of structured population dynamics in complex ecological communities

Goldstone's idea of slow dynamics resulting from spontaneously broken symmetries is applied to Hubbell's neutral hypothesis of community dynamics, to efficiently simplify stage-structured multi-species models-introducing the quasi-neutral approximation (QNA). Rather than assuming population-dynamical neutrality in the QNA, deviations from ideal neutrality, thought to be small, drive dynamics. The QNA is systematically derived to first and second order in a two-scale singular perturbation expansion. The total reproductive value of species, as computed from the effective life-history parameters resulting from the non-linear interactions with the surrounding community, emerges as the new dynamic variables in this aggregated description. Using a simple stage-structured community-assembly model, the QNA is demonstrated to accurately reproduce population dynamics in large, complex communities. Further, the utility of the QNA in building intuition for management problems is illustrated by estimating the responses of a fish stock to harvesting and variations in fecundity.

Redistribution of vibrational population in a molecular ion with nonresonant strong-field laser pulses

We present an experimental demonstration of nonresonant manipulation of vibrational states in a molecule by an intense ultrashort laser pulse. A vibrational wave packet is generated in D-2(+) through tunnel ionization of D-2 by a few-cycle pump pulse. A similar control pulse is applied as the wave packet begins to dephase so that the dynamic Stark effect distorts the electronic environment of the nuclei, transferring vibrational population. The time evolution of the modified wave packet is probed via the D-2(+) photodissociation yield that results from the application of an intense probe pulse. Comparing the measured yield with a quasiclassical trajectory model allows us to determine the redistribution of vibrational population caused by the control pulse. ©

Differential evolution combined with clonal selection for dynamic economic dispatch

Dynamic economic load dispatch (DELD) is one of the most important steps in power system operation. Various optimisation algorithms for solving the problem have been developed; however, due to the non-convex characteristics and large dimensionality of the problem, it is necessary to explore new methods to further improve the dispatch results and minimise the costs. This article proposes a hybrid differential evolution (DE) algorithm, namely clonal selection-based differential evolution (CSDE), to solve the problem. CSDE is an artificial intelligence technique that can be applied to complex optimisation problems which are for example nonlinear, large scale, non-convex and discontinuous. This hybrid algorithm combines the clonal selection algorithm (CSA) as the local search technique to update the best individual in the population, which enhances the diversity of the solutions and prevents premature convergence in DE. Furthermore, we investigate four mutation operations which are used in CSA as the hyper-mutation operations. Finally, an efficient solution repair method is designed for DELD to satisfy the complicated equality and inequality constraints of the power system to guarantee the feasibility of the solutions. Two benchmark power systems are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed CSDE/best/1 approach significantly outperforms nine other variants of CSDE and DE, as well as most other published methods, in terms of the quality of the solution and the convergence characteristics.

A review of dynamic Bayesian network techniques with applications in healthcare risk modelling

Coping with an ageing population is a major concern for healthcare organisations around the world. The average cost of hospital care is higher than social care for older and terminally ill patients. Moreover, the average cost of social care increases with the age of the patient. Therefore, it is important to make efficient and fair capacity planning which also incorporates patient centred outcomes. Predictive models can provide predictions which their accuracy can be understood and quantified. Predictive modelling can help patients and carers to get the appropriate support services, and allow clinical decision-makers to improve care quality and reduce the cost of inappropriate hospital and Accident and Emergency admissions. The aim of this study is to provide a review of modelling techniques and frameworks for predictive risk modelling of patients in hospital, based on routinely collected data such as the Hospital Episode Statistics database. A number of sub-problems can be considered such as Length-of-Stay and End-of-Life predictive modelling. The methodologies in the literature are mainly focused on addressing the problems using regression methods and Markov models, and the majority lack generalisability. In some cases, the robustness, accuracy and re-usability of predictive risk models have been shown to be improved using Machine Learning methods. Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques can represent complex correlations models and include small probabilities into the solution. The main focus of this study is to provide a review of major time-varying Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques with applications in healthcare predictive risk modelling.