Testing alternative models for the conservation of koalas in fragmented rural-urban landscapes

Predicting the various responses of different species to changes in landscape structure is a formidable challenge to landscape ecology. Based on expert knowledge and landscape ecological theory, we develop five competing a priori models for predicting the presence/absence of the Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in Noosa Shire, south-east Queensland (Australia). A priori predictions were nested within three levels of ecological organization: in situ (site level) habitat (< 1 ha), patch level (100 ha) and landscape level (100-1000 ha). To test the models, Koala surveys and habitat surveys (n = 245) were conducted across the habitat mosaic. After taking into account tree species preferences, the patch and landscape context, and the neighbourhood effect of adjacent present sites, we applied logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses to rank the alternative models and the explanatory variables. The strongest support was for a multilevel model, with Koala presence best predicted by the proportion of the landscape occupied by high quality habitat, the neighbourhood effect, the mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches and the density of sealed roads. When tested against independent data (n = 105) using a receiver operator characteristic curve, the multilevel model performed moderately well. The study is consistent with recent assertions that habitat loss is the major driver of population decline, however, landscape configuration and roads have an important effect that needs to be incorporated into Koala conservation strategies.

A Review of the Effects of Altered Hydrology and Salinity on Vertebrate Fauna and Their Habitats in Northeastern Florida Bay

Estuarine productivity is highly dependent on the freshwater sources of the estuary. In Florida Bay, Taylor Slough was historically the main source of fresh water. Beginning in about 1960, and culminating with the completion of the South Dade Conveyance System in 1984, water management practice began to change the quantity and distribution of flow from Taylor Slough into Northeastern Florida Bay. These practices altered salinity and hydrologic parameters that had measurable negative impacts on vertebrate fauna and their habitats. Here, I review those impacts from published and unpublished literature and anecdotal observations. Almost all vertebrates covered in this review have shown some form of population decline since 1984; most of the studies implicate declines in food resources as the main stressor on their populations. My conclusion is that the diversion of fresh water resulted in an ecological cascade starting with hydrologic stresses on primary then secondary producers culminating in population declines at the top of the food web.

Mortality and climatic/environmental correlates of Widdringtonia cedargensis trees in the Cederberg, South Africa

Background: Conifer populations appear disproportionately threatened by global change. Most examples are, however, drawn from the northern hemisphere and long-term rates of population decline are not well documented as historical data are often lacking. We use a large and long-term (1931-2013) repeat photography dataset together with environmental data and fire records to account for the decline of the critically endangered Widdringtonia cedarbergensis. Eighty-seven historical and repeat photo-pairs were analysed to establish 20th century changes in W. cedarbergensis demography. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was fitted to determine the relative importance of environmental factors and fire-return interval on mortality for the species. Results: From an initial total of 1313 live trees in historical photographs, 74% had died and only 44 (3.4%) had recruited in the repeat photographs, leaving 387 live individuals. Juveniles (mature adults) had decreased (increased) from 27% (73%) to 8% (92%) over the intervening period. Our model demonstrates that mortality is related to greater fire frequency, higher temperatures, lower elevations, less rocky habitats and aspect (i.e. east-facing slopes had the least mortality). Conclusions: Our results show that W. cedarbergensis populations have declined significantly over the recorded period, with a pronounced decline in the last 30 years. Individuals that established in open habitats at lower, hotter elevations and experienced a greater fire frequency appear to be more vulnerable to mortality than individuals growing within protected, rocky environments at higher, cooler locations with less frequent fires. Climate models predict increasing temperatures for our study area (and likely increases in wildfires). If these predictions are realised, further declines in the species can be expected. Urgent management interventions, including seedling out-planting in fire-protected high elevation sites, reducing fire frequency in higher elevation populations, and assisted migration, should be considered.

The influence of simulated exploitation onPatella vulgatapopulations: protandric sex change is size-dependent

Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0–15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management.

The influence of simulated exploitation onPatella vulgatapopulations: protandric sex change is size-dependent

Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0–15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management.

Intégration d'une communauté minoritaire en période d'industrialisation : les Irlandais catholiques de la ville de Québec, 1852-1911

Au courant de la période industrielle, la ville de Québec a connu une croissance démographique rapide alimentée, entre autres, par une immigration européenne massive. Celle-ci contribua d’une façon notable aux changements socioéconomiques de la capitale durant cette période. Parmi les migrants, les Irlandais catholiques furent nombreux à transiter ou à s’établir à Québec et y laissèrent des traces encore visibles aujourd’hui. Or, bien que l’histoire de la diaspora irlandaise en sol nord-américain ait fait l’objet de plusieurs recherches, le cas de la ville de Québec, tout comme sa période d’industrialisation, reste encore peu étudié à ce jour. Grâce à l’utilisation des recensements nominatifs canadiens de 1852 à 1911 et des actes de mariage, cette étude a comme objectif d’analyser le niveau d’intégration de la communauté irlandaise de Québec sur les plans économique, social et spatial, et ce, à micro-échelle. Ainsi, en observant les emplois et la mobilité socioprofessionnelle des travailleurs, les unions exogames et l’évolution de l’établissement irlandais sur le territoire à l’étude, la présente recherche permet d’établir un constat positif : les Irlandais catholiques ont su s’intégrer à la société urbaine de Québec. Néanmoins, considérant la forte diminution démographique de la communauté au tournant du siècle, l’intégration s’est effectuée davantage à l’échelle des ménages que pour l’ensemble de la communauté.

Estudo preliminar sobre a densidade de primatas no sul do Parque Nacional das Quirimbas, Moçambique

O Parque Nacional das Quirimbas (PNQ) é a primeira e única área com estatuto de Parque Nacional no norte de Moçambique. A necessidade de estudar mamíferos de médio e grande porte fez deste trabalho o primeiro estudo dedicado à densidade de primatas no sul do PNQ. De Outubro de 2014 a Janeiro de 2015 foram realizados, em duas áreas do sul do PNQ, Taratibu e Mareja, censos segundo o método de amostragem de distâncias de transectos lineares. As densidades estimadas de cada uma das espécies estudadas, Papio cynocephalus, Cercophitecus albogularis e Chlorocebus pygerythrus, revelaram ser mais elevadas em Mareja do que em Taratibu, área caracterizada pela presença de inselbergs. No total das duas áreas de estudo (sul do PNQ) a estimativa da densidade foi de 12,4855 indivíduos/km2 para P. cynocephalus, de 2,8700 indivíduos/km2 para C. albogularis e de 0,5172 indivíduos/km2 para C. pygerythrus. Estas estimativas quando comparadas com o único estudo geral sobre a densidade de mamíferos presente no PNQ, revelam ser mais elevadas. Uma vez que o método utilizado no presente estudo, permitiu uma maior facilidade na visualização direta de primatas e um maior número de indivíduos avistados, podemos concluir que estes valores de estimativas de densidade poderão ser mais fiáveis que os obtidos anteriormente para esta zona. As densidades obtidas quando comparadas com outros estudos mostram ser mais elevadas no caso P. cynocephalus, o que poderá fazer do PNQ uma área de valor inestimável e de grande importância para a conservação desta espécie, e mais baixas no que toca à espécie C. albogularis, o que poderá indicar um declíneo desta população. Relativamente a C. pygerythrus, ainda que o número de avistamentos tenha sido reduzido, a estimativa da densidade obtida segue a tendência de estabilidade da população.

Contributos para uma estratégia de marketing territorial para a região de Moimenta da Beira

Num contexto de urbanização, de acesa competitividade e desertificação do interior, assiste-se cada vez mais a cenários de concorrência entre territórios pela captação de recursos, investimentos, negócios e até visitantes e turistas, capazes de gerar dinâmicas positivas no território, palco deste movimento. Algumas projeções indiciam que o interior de Portugal terá, em 2040, cerca de um terço da população atual e, se a tendência de declínio demográfico se mantiver, em 90 anos o interior perderá 75 por cento da população. Neste contexto, o presente estudo tem por finalidade alertar os decisores políticos para o desenvolvimento de estratégias que possam atrair pessoas para o interior do país e estancar a sua desertificação. Para o efeito, o projeto que se apresenta vai procurar definir uma estratégia de marketing territorial para o concelho de Moimenta da Beira, tendo por base os seus produtos endógenos, como a maçã, o vinho, o mel, os enchidos, os granitos, o património religioso e cultural e, por fim, o património natural, como a Albufeira do Vilar e a Serra da Nave. Para a realização do referido estudo, foi seguida uma metodologia que teve por base uma revisão de literatura na área do marketing territorial, a análise de dados secundários e a realização de entrevistas aos principais Stakeholders da região. Os resultados deste estudo permitirão definir orientações para reforçar a atratividade e competitividade da oferta territorial junto dos segmentos alvo, ou seja, dos atuais e potenciais utilizadores do território.

Young adults’ perceptions of and affective bonds to a rural tourism community

Many rural areas, in Sweden and worldwide, experience population decline where the young leave for education and work in urban areas. Employment has declined in several rural industries, such as agriculture, forestry, and fishing, while growing in other industries are often located in urban areas. Politicians and organizations have put much hope in tourism as a tool of rural development, but can tourism help reverse the rural out-migration trend among young adults? This paper explores how tourism affects young inhabitants’ perceptions of and affective bonds to a rural area in Sweden, the ski resort of Sälen. Students from the 1993–1995 elementary school graduating classes were interviewed about their migration history, childhood, and view of and ties to Sälen. The respondents experience that tourism contributes to a more vital community incorporating influences from elsewhere, but without eliminating the positive aspects of rural life. The regular flow of people – tourists, seasonal workers, and entrepreneurs – passing through Sälen presents opportunities to extend one’s social network that are widely appreciated by respondents. The high in and out mobility constitutes a key part of Sälen’s character. Contributions from tourism – such as employment, entertainment, leisure, and opportunities to forge new social relationships – are available during the adult transition, the life phase when rural areas are often perceived as least attractive. Even though out-migration occurs in Sälen, and some respondents still find Sälen too small, tourism has clearly increased the available opportunities and contributed significantly to making Sälen more attractive to young adults.

Detectability of migrating raptors and its effect on bias and precision of trend estimates

Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964), and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.

Modelling the distribution of Bonelli's eagle in Spain: Implications for conservation planning

Bonelli’s eagle, Hieraaetus fasciatus , has recently suffered a severe population decline and is currently endangered. Spain supports about 70% of the European population. We used stepwise logistic regression on a set of environmental, spatial and human variables to model Bonelli’s eagle distribution in the 5167 UTM 10 × 10 km quadrats of peninsular Spain. We obtained a model based on 16 variables, which allowed us to identify favourable and unfavourable areas for this species in Spain, as well as intermediate favourability areas. We assessed the stepwise progression of the model by comparing the model’s predictions in each step with those of the final model, and selected a parsimonious explanatory model based on three variables — slope, July temperature and precipitation — comprising 76% of the predictive capacity of the

Falar com sotaque

Bonelli’s eagle, Hieraaetus fasciatus , has recently suffered a severe population decline and is currently endangered. Spain supports about 70% of the European population. We used stepwise logistic regression on a set of environmental, spatial and human variables to model Bonelli’s eagle distribution in the 5167 UTM 10 × 10 km quadrats of peninsular Spain. We obtained a model based on 16 variables, which allowed us to identify favourable and unfavourable areas for this species in Spain, as well as intermediate favourability areas. We assessed the stepwise progression of the model by comparing the model’s predictions in each step with those of the final model, and selected a parsimonious explanatory model based on three variables — slope, July temperature and precipitation — comprising 76% of the predictive capacity of the

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level and kidney function decline in a Swiss general adult population.

Molecular evidence suggests that levels of vitamin D are associated with kidney function loss. Still, population-based studies are limited and few have considered the potential confounding effect of baseline kidney function. This study evaluated the association of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D with change in eGFR, rapid eGFR decline, and incidence of CKD and albuminuria. Baseline (2003-2006) and 5.5-year follow-up data from a Swiss adult general population were used to evaluate the association of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D with change in eGFR, rapid eGFR decline (annual loss >3 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), and incidence of CKD and albuminuria. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D was measured at baseline using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. eGFR and albuminuria were collected at baseline and follow-up. Multivariate linear and logistic regression models were used considering potential confounding factors. Among the 4280 people included in the analysis, the mean±SD annual eGFR change was -0.57±1.78 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), and 287 (6.7%) participants presented rapid eGFR decline. Before adjustment for baseline eGFR, baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D level was associated with both mean annual eGFR change and risk of rapid eGFR decline, independently of baseline albuminuria. Once adjusted for baseline eGFR, associations were no longer significant. For every 10 ng/ml higher baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D, the adjusted mean annual eGFR change was -0.005 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (95% confidence interval, -0.063 to 0.053; P=0.87) and the risk of rapid eGFR decline was null (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.79 to 1.08; P=0.33). Baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D level was not associated with incidence of CKD or albuminuria. The association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D with eGFR decline is confounded by baseline eGFR. Sufficient 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels do not seem to protect from eGFR decline independently from baseline eGFR.