Future landscapes in South-eastern Australia : the role of protected areas and biolinks in adaptation to climate change

The extent and rapidity of global climate change is the major novel threatening process to biodiversity in the 21 st century. Globally, numerous studies suggest movement of biota to higher latitudes and altitudes with increasing empirical -evidence emerging. As biota responds to the direct and consequent effects of climate change the potential to profoundly affect natural systems (including the reserve system) of south-eastern Australia is becoming evident. Climate change is projected to accelerate major environmental drivers such as drought, fire and flood regimes. Is the reserve system sufficient for biodiversity conservation under a changing climate? Australia is topographically flat, biologically mega-diverse with high species endemism, and has the driest and most variable climate of any inhabited continent. Whilst the north-south orientation and aftitude gradient of eastern Australia's forests and woodlands provides some resilience to projected climatic change, this has been eroded since European settlement, particularly in the cool-moist Bassian zone of the south-east. Following settlement, massive land-use change for agriculture and forestry caused widespread loss and fragmentation of habitats; becoming geriatric in agricultural landscapes and artificially young in forests. The reserve system persists as an archipelago of ecological islands surrounded by land uses of varying compatibility with conservation and vulnerable to global warming. The capacity for biota to adapt is limited by habitat availability. The extinction risk is exacerbated. Re-examination of earlier analysis of ecological connectivity through biolink zones confirms biolinks as an appropriate risk management response within a broader suite of measures. Areas not currently in the reserve system may be critical to the value and ecological function of biological assets of the reserve system as these assets change. Ecological need and the rise of ecosystem services, combined with changing socio-economic drivers of land-use and social values that supported the expansion of the reserve system, all suggest biolink zones represent a new, necessary and viable multi-functional landscape. This paper explores some of the key ecological elements for restoration within biolink zones (and landscapes at large) particularly through currently agricultural landscapes.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Lessons for Science from the "Year without a Summer" of 1816. What does it take for science to respond to climate change?

Science is responding in manifold ways to current climate change. What are the perquisites for response, and how can we structure the response? By studying the historical climatic event “Year without a Summer” of 1816 and by relating to Fleck’s theory of genesis and development of a scientific fact, we posit that responding refers to making interlinkages between different notions of climatic change.

Adapting agricultural water governance to climate change: Experiences from Germany, Spain and California

This study describes and discusses initiatives taken by public (water) agencies in the state of Brandenburg in Germany, the state of California in the USA and the Ebro River Basin in Spain in response to the challenges which climate change poses for the agricultural water sector. The drivers and actors and the process of changing agricultural water governance are its particular focus. The assumptions discussed are: (i) the degree of planned and anticipatory top-down implementation processes decreases if actions are more decentralized and are introduced at the regional and local level; (ii) the degree of autonomous and responsive adaptation approaches seems to grow with actions at a lower administrative level. Looking at processes of institutional change, a variety of drivers and actors are at work such as changing perceptions of predicted climate impacts; international obligations which force politicians to take action; socio-economic concerns such as the cost of not taking action; the economic interests of the private sector. Drivers are manifold and often interact and, in many cases, reforms in the sector are driven by and associated with larger reform agendas. The results of the study may serve as a starting point in assisting water agencies in developing countries with the elaboration of coping strategies for tackling climate change-induced risks related to agricultural water management.

Variation in life-history traits and their plasticities to elevational transplantation among seed families suggests potential for adaptative evolution of 15 tropical plant species to climate change

• Premise of the study: Because not all plant species will be able to move in response to global warming, adaptive evolution matters largely for plant persistence. As prerequisites for adaptive evolution, genetic variation in and selection on phenotypic traits are needed, but these aspects have not been studied in tropical species. We studied how plants respond to transplantation to different elevations on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, and whether there is quantitative genetic (among-seed family) variation in and selection on life-history traits and their phenotypic plasticity to the different environments. • Methods: We reciprocally transplanted seed families of 15 common tropical, herbaceous species of the montane and savanna vegetation zone at Mt. Kilimanjaro to a watered experimental garden in the montane (1450 m) and in the savanna (880 m) zone at the mountain’s slope and measured performance, reproductive, and phenological traits. • Results: Plants generally performed worse in the savanna garden, indicating that the savanna climate was more stressful and thus that plants may suffer from future climate warming. We found significant quantitative genetic variation in all measured performance and reproductive traits in both gardens and for several measures of phenotypic plasticity in response to elevational transplantation. Moreover, we found positive selection on traits at low and intermediate trait values levelling to neutral or negative selection at high values. • Conclusions: We conclude that common plants at Mt. Kilimanjaro express quantitative genetic variation in fitness-relevant traits and in their plasticities, suggesting potential to adapt evolutionarily to future climate warming and increased temperature variability.

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Comments This article is a U.S. government work, and is not subject to copyright in the United States. Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

Phenotypic plasticity facilitates resistance to climate change in a highly variable environment

Increased summer drought will exacerbate the regeneration of many tree species at their lower latitudinal and altitudinal distribution limits. In vulnerable habitats, introduction of more drought-tolerant provenances or species is currently considered to accelerate tree species migration and facilitate forest persistence. Trade-offs between drought adaptation and growth plasticity might, however, limit the effectiveness of assisted migration, especially if introductions focus on provenances or species from different climatic regions. We tested in a common garden experiment the performance of Pinus sylvestris seedlings from the continental Central Alps under increased temperatures and extended spring and/or summer drought, and compared seedling emergence, survival and biomass allocation to that of P. sylvestris and closely related Pinus nigra from a Mediterranean seed source. Soil heating had only minor effects on seedling performance but high spring precipitation doubled the number of continental P. sylvestris seedlings present after the summer drought. At the same time, twice as many seedlings of the Mediterranean than the continental P. sylvestris provenance were present, which was due to both higher emergence and lower mortality under dry conditions. Both P. sylvestris provenances allocated similar amounts of biomass to roots when grown under low summer precipitation. Mediterranean seedlings, however, revealed lower phenotypic plasticity than continental seedlings under high precipitation, which might limit their competitive ability in continental Alpine forests in non-drought years. By contrast, high variability in the response of individual seedlings to summer drought indicates the potential of continental P. sylvestris provenances to adapt to changing environmental conditions.

Exploring strategic farming choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Las alteraciones del sistema climático debido al aumento de concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) en la atmósfera, tendrán implicaciones importantes para la agricultura, el medio ambiente y la sociedad. La agricultura es una fuente importante de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (globalmente contribuye al 12% del total de GEI), y al mismo tiempo puede ser parte de la solución para mitigar las emisiones y adaptarse al cambio climático. Las acciones frente al desafío del cambio climático deben priorizar estrategias de adaptación y mitigación en la agricultura dentro de la agenda para el desarrollo de políticas. La agricultura es por tanto crucial para la conservación y el uso sostenible de los recursos naturales, que ya están sometidos a impactos del cambio climático, al mismo tiempo que debe suministrar alimentos para una población creciente. Por tanto, es necesaria una coordinación entre las actuales estrategias de política climática y agrícola. El concepto de agricultura climáticamente inteligente ha surgido para integrar todos estos servicios de la producción agraria. Al evaluar opciones para reducir las amenazas del cambio climático para la agricultura y el medio ambiente, surgen dos preguntas de investigación: • ¿Qué información es necesaria para definir prácticas agrarias inteligentes? • ¿Qué factores influyen en la implementación de las prácticas agrarias inteligentes? Esta Tesis trata de proporcionar información relevante sobre estas cuestiones generales con el fin de apoyar el desarrollo de la política climática. Se centra en sistemas agrícolas Mediterráneos. Esta Tesis integra diferentes métodos y herramientas para evaluar las alternativas de gestión agrícola y políticas con potencial para responder a las necesidades de mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático. La investigación incluye enfoques cuantitativos y cualitativos e integra variables agronómicas, de clima y socioeconómicas a escala local y regional. La investigación aporta una recopilación de datos sobre evidencia experimental existente, y un estudio integrado sobre el comportamiento de los agricultores y las posibles alternativas de cambio (por ejemplo, la tecnología, la gestión agrícola y la política climática). Los casos de estudio de esta Tesis - el humedal de Doñana (S España) y la región de Aragón (NE España) - permiten ilustrar dos sistemas Mediterráneos representativos, donde el uso intensivo de la agricultura y las condiciones semiáridas son ya una preocupación. Por este motivo, la adopción de estrategias de mitigación y adaptación puede desempeñar un papel muy importante a la hora de encontrar un equilibrio entre la equidad, la seguridad económica y el medio ambiente en los escenarios de cambio climático. La metodología multidisciplinar de esta tesis incluye una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recopilación y el análisis de datos. La toma de datos se apoya en la revisión bibliográfica de evidencia experimental, bases de datos públicas nacionales e internacionales y datos primarios recopilados mediante entrevistas semi-estructuradas con los grupos de interés (administraciones públicas, responsables políticos, asesores agrícolas, científicos y agricultores) y encuestas con agricultores. Los métodos de análisis incluyen: meta-análisis, modelos de gestión de recursos hídricos (modelo WAAPA), análisis multicriterio para la toma de decisiones, métodos estadísticos (modelos de regresión logística y de Poisson) y herramientas para el desarrollo de políticas basadas en la ciencia. El meta-análisis identifica los umbrales críticos de temperatura que repercuten en el crecimiento y el desarrollo de los tres cultivos principales para la seguridad alimentaria (arroz, maíz y trigo). El modelo WAAPA evalúa el efecto del cambio climático en la gestión del agua para la agricultura de acuerdo a diferentes alternativas políticas y escenarios climáticos. El análisis multicriterio evalúa la viabilidad de las prácticas agrícolas de mitigación en dos escenarios climáticos de acuerdo a la percepción de diferentes expertos. Los métodos estadísticos analizan los determinantes y las barreras para la adopción de prácticas agrícolas de mitigación. Las herramientas para el desarrollo de políticas basadas en la ciencia muestran el potencial y el coste para reducir GEI mediante las prácticas agrícolas. En general, los resultados de esta Tesis proporcionan información sobre la adaptación y la mitigación del cambio climático a nivel de explotación para desarrollar una política climática más integrada y ayudar a los agricultores en la toma de decisiones. Los resultados muestran las temperaturas umbral y la respuesta del arroz, el maíz y el trigo a temperaturas extremas, siendo estos valores de gran utilidad para futuros estudios de impacto y adaptación. Los resultados obtenidos también aportan una serie de estrategias flexibles para la adaptación y la mitigación a escala local, proporcionando a su vez una mejor comprensión sobre las barreras y los incentivos para su adopción. La capacidad de mejorar la disponibilidad de agua y el potencial y el coste de reducción de GEI se han estimado para estas estrategias en los casos de estudio. Estos resultados podrían ayudar en el desarrollo de planes locales de adaptación y políticas regionales de mitigación, especialmente en las regiones Mediterráneas. ABSTRACT Alterations in the climatic system due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are expected to have important implications for agriculture, the environment and society. Agriculture is an important source of GHG emissions (12 % of global anthropogenic GHG), but it is also part of the solution to mitigate emissions and to adapt to climate change. Responses to face the challenge of climate change should place agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies at the heart of the climate change agenda. Agriculture is crucial for the conservation and sustainable use of natural resources, which already stand under pressure due to climate change impacts, increased population, pollution and fragmented and uncoordinated climate policy strategies. The concept of climate smart agriculture has emerged to encompass all these issues as a whole. When assessing choices aimed at reducing threats to agriculture and the environment under climate change, two research questions arise: • What information defines smart farming choices? • What drives the implementation of smart farming choices? This Thesis aims to provide information on these broad questions in order to support climate policy development focusing in some Mediterranean agricultural systems. This Thesis integrates methods and tools to evaluate potential farming and policy choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The assessment involves both quantitative and qualitative approaches and integrates agronomic, climate and socioeconomic variables at local and regional scale. The assessment includes the collection of data on previous experimental evidence, and the integration of farmer behaviour and policy choices (e.g., technology, agricultural management and climate policy). The case study areas -- the Doñana coastal wetland (S Spain) and the Aragón region (NE Spain) – illustrate two representative Mediterranean regions where the intensive use of agriculture and the semi-arid conditions are already a concern. Thus the adoption of mitigation and adaptation measures can play a significant role for reaching a balance among equity, economic security and the environment under climate change scenarios. The multidisciplinary methodology of this Thesis includes a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The data collection process include revision of existing experimental evidence, public databases and the contribution of primary data gathering by semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders (i.e., public administrations, policy makers, agricultural advisors, scientist and farmers among others) and surveys given to farmers. The analytical methods include meta-analysis, water availability models (WAAPA model), decision making analysis (MCA, multi-criteria analysis), statistical approaches (Logistic and Poisson regression models) and science-base policy tools (MACC, marginal abatement cost curves and SOC abatement wedges). The meta-analysis identifies the critical temperature thresholds which impact on the growth and development of three major crops (i.e., rice, maize and wheat). The WAAPA model assesses the effect of climate change for agricultural water management under different policy choices and climate scenarios. The multi-criteria analysis evaluates the feasibility of mitigation farming practices under two climate scenarios according to the expert views. The statistical approaches analyses the drivers and the barriers for the adoption of mitigation farming practices. The science-base policy tools illustrate the mitigation potential and cost effectiveness of the farming practices. Overall, the results of this Thesis provide information to adapt to, and mitigate of, climate change at farm level to support the development of a comprehensive climate policy and to assist farmers. The findings show the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice, maize and wheat, so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. A portfolio of flexible adaptation and mitigation choices at local scale are identified. The results also provide a better understanding of the stakeholders oppose or support to adopt the choices which could be used to incorporate in local adaptation plans and mitigation regional policy. The findings include estimations for the farming and policy choices on the capacity to improve water supply reliability, abatement potential and cost-effective in Mediterranean regions.

Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation

In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects—particularly those caused by mortality—largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and piñon–juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (<5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to a severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change.

Exploring social representations of adapting to climate change using topic modeling and Bayesian networks

When something unfamiliar emerges or when something familiar does something unexpected people need to make sense of what is emerging or going on in order to act. Social representations theory suggests how individuals and society make sense of the unfamiliar and hence how the resultant social representations (SRs) cognitively, emotionally, and actively orient people and enable communication. SRs are social constructions that emerge through individual and collective engagement with media and with everyday conversations among people. Recent developments in text analysis techniques, and in particular topic modeling, provide a potentially powerful analytical method to examine the structure and content of SRs using large samples of narrative or text. In this paper I describe the methods and results of applying topic modeling to 660 micronarratives collected from Australian academics / researchers, government employees, and members of the public in 2010-2011. The narrative fragments focused on adaptation to climate change (CC) and hence provide an example of Australian society making sense of an emerging and conflict ridden phenomena. The results of the topic modeling reflect elements of SRs of adaptation to CC that are consistent with findings in the literature as well as being reasonably robust predictors of classes of action in response to CC. Bayesian Network (BN) modeling was used to identify relationships among the topics (SR elements) and in particular to identify relationships among topics, sentiment, and action. Finally the resulting model and topic modeling results are used to highlight differences in the salience of SR elements among social groups. The approach of linking topic modeling and BN modeling offers a new and encouraging approach to analysis for ongoing research on SRs.

Towards a model of the institutional logics of climate change

The proliferation of innovative schemes to address climate change at international, national and local levels signals a fundamental shift in the priority and role of the natural environment to society, organizations and individuals. This shift in shared priorities invites academics and practitioners to consider the role of institutions in shaping and constraining responses to climate change at multiple levels of organisations and society. Institutional theory provides an approach to conceptualising and addressing climate change challenges by focusing on the central logics that guide society, organizations and individuals and their material and symbolic relationship to the environment. For example, framing a response to climate change in the form of an emission trading scheme evidences a practice informed by a capitalist market logic (Friedland and Alford 1991). However, not all responses need necessarily align with a market logic. Indeed, Thornton (2004) identifies six broad societal sectors each with its own logic (markets, corporations, professions, states, families, religions). Hence, understanding the logics that underpin successful –and unsuccessful– climate change initiatives contributes to revealing how institutions shape and constrain practices, and provides valuable insights for policy makers and organizations. This paper develops models and propositions to consider the construction of, and challenges to, climate change initiatives based on institutional logics (Thornton and Ocasio 2008). We propose that the challenge of understanding and explaining how climate change initiatives are successfully adopted be examined in terms of their institutional logics, and how these logics evolve over time. To achieve this, a multi-level framework of analysis that encompasses society, organizations and individuals is necessary (Friedland and Alford 1991). However, to date most extant studies of institutional logics have tended to emphasize one level over the others (Thornton and Ocasio 2008: 104). In addition, existing studies related to climate change initiatives have largely been descriptive (e.g. Braun 2008) or prescriptive (e.g. Boiral 2006) in terms of the suitability of particular practices. This paper contributes to the literature on logics by examining multiple levels: the proliferation of the climate change agenda provides a site in which to study how institutional logics are played out across multiple, yet embedded levels within society through institutional forums in which change takes place. Secondly, the paper specifically examines how institutional logics provide society with organising principles –material practices and symbolic constructions– which enable and constrain their actions and help define their motives and identity. Based on this model, we develop a series of propositions of the conditions required for the successful introduction of climate change initiatives. The paper proceeds as follows. We present a review of literature related to institutional logics and develop a generic model of the process of the operation of institutional logics. We then consider how this is applied to key initiatives related to climate change. Finally, we develop a series of propositions which might guide insights into the successful implementation of climate change practices.

Environmental rights, justice and climate change

The human rights implications of climate change are increasingly gaining attention, with wider international acknowledgement that climate change poses a real threat to human rights. This paper considers the impact of climate change on human rights, looking particularly at the experiences of Torres Strait Islanders in northern Australia. It argues that human rights law offers a guiding set of principles which can help in developing appropriate strategies to combat climate change. In particular, the normative principles embodied in environmental rights can be useful in setting priorities and evaluating policies in response to climate change. The paper also argues that a human rights perspective can help address the underlying injustice of climate change: that it is the people who have contributed least to the problem who will bear the heaviest burden of its effects.

Assessing the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change

There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change : the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia

Background: There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change.---------- Methods: Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and nongovernmental organisations in South-East Queensland.---------- Results: The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability.---------- Conclusion: The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists’ views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making.