Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

Integer Programming on Domains Containing Inseparable Ordered Paris

Using the integer programming approach introduced by Sethuraman, Teo, and Vohra (2003), we extend the analysis of the preference domains containing an inseparable ordered pair, initiated by Kalai and Ritz (1978). We show that these domains admit not only Arrovian social welfare functions \without ties," but also Arrovian social welfare functions \with ties," since they satisfy the strictly decomposability condition introduced by Busetto, Codognato, and Tonin (2012). Moreover, we go further in the comparison between Kalai and Ritz (1978)'s inseparability and Arrow (1963)'s single-peak restrictions, showing that the former condition is more \respectable," in the sense of Muller and Satterthwaite (1985).

Guidance on the transfer of mentally disordered patients detained under the Mental Health (NI) Order 1986 to and from Hospitals in Great Britain - August 2011 (PDF 101 KB)

Guidance on the transfer of mentally disordered patients detained under the Mental Health (NI) Order 1986 to and from Hospitals in Great Britain - August 2011.

Discharge from Hospital and the Continuing Care in the Community of Mentally Disordered People (PDF 305KB)

Represent a Risk of Serious Physical Harm to Themselves or Others

Effects of added dead space on sleep disordered breathing at high altitude

Introduction: Sleep disordered breathing with central apnea or hypopnea frequently occurs during sleep at high altitude. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of added dead space (DS) on sleep disordered breathing and transcutaneous CO2 (PtcCO2) level during sleep at high altitude. Methods: Full night sleep recordings were obtained on 12 unacclimatized mountaineers (11 males, 1 female, mean age 39 ± 12 y.o.) during one of the first 4 nights after arrival in Leh, Ladakh (3500 m). In random order, half of the night was spent with a 500 ml increase in dead space through a custom designed full face mask and the other half without it. PtcCO2 was measured in 3 participants. Results: Baseline recordings reveled two clearly distinct groups: one with severe sleep disordered breathing (n = 5) and the other with mild or no disordered breathing (n = 7). Added dead space markedly improved breathing in the first group (baseline vs DS): apnea hypopnea index (AHI) 70.3 ± 25.8 vs 29.4 ± 6.9 (p = 0.013), oxygen desaturation index (ODI): 72.9 ± 24.1/h vs 42.5 ± 14.4 (p = 0.031), whereas it had no significant effect in the second group. Added dead space did not have a significant effect on mean oxygen saturation level. Respiratory events were almost exclusively central apnea or hypopnea except for one subject. Only a minor increase in mean PtcCO2 (n = 3) was observed: 33.6 ± 1.8 mm Hg at baseline and 35.0 ± 2.62 mm Hg with DS. Sleep quality was preserved under dead space condition, since the microarousal rate remained unchanged (16.8 ± 8.7/h vs 19.4 ± 18.6/h (p = 0.51). Conclusion: In mountaineers with severe sleep disordered breathing at high altitude, a 500 ml increase in dead space through a fitted mask significantly improves nocturnal breathing.

Prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing in the general population: the HypnoLaus study.

BACKGROUND: Sleep-disordered breathing is associated with major morbidity and mortality. However, its prevalence has mainly been selectively studied in populations at risk for sleep-disordered breathing or cardiovascular diseases. Taking into account improvements in recording techniques and new criteria used to define respiratory events, we aimed to assess the prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing and associated clinical features in a large population-based sample. METHODS: Between Sept 1, 2009, and June 30, 2013, we did a population-based study (HypnoLaus) in Lausanne, Switzerland. We invited a cohort of 3043 consecutive participants of the CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study to take part. Polysomnography data from 2121 people were included in the final analysis. 1024 (48%) participants were men, with a median age of 57 years (IQR 49-68, range 40-85) and mean body-mass index (BMI) of 25·6 kg/m(2) (SD 4·1). Participants underwent complete polysomnographic recordings at home and had extensive phenotyping for diabetes, hypertension, metabolic syndrome, and depression. The primary outcome was prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing, assessed by the apnoea-hypopnoea index. FINDINGS: The median apnoea-hypopnoea index was 6·9 events per h (IQR 2·7-14·1) in women and 14·9 per h (7·2-27·1) in men. The prevalence of moderate-to-severe sleep-disordered breathing (≥15 events per h) was 23·4% (95% CI 20·9-26·0) in women and 49·7% (46·6-52·8) in men. After multivariable adjustment, the upper quartile for the apnoea-hypopnoea index (>20·6 events per h) was associated independently with the presence of hypertension (odds ratio 1·60, 95% CI 1·14-2·26; p=0·0292 for trend across severity quartiles), diabetes (2·00, 1·05-3·99; p=0·0467), metabolic syndrome (2·80, 1·86-4·29; p<0·0001), and depression (1·92, 1·01-3·64; p=0·0292). INTERPRETATION: The high prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing recorded in our population-based sample might be attributable to the increased sensitivity of current recording techniques and scoring criteria. These results suggest that sleep-disordered breathing is highly prevalent, with important public health outcomes, and that the definition of the disorder should be revised. FUNDING: Faculty of Biology and Medicine of Lausanne, Lausanne University Hospital, Swiss National Science Foundation, Leenaards Foundation, GlaxoSmithKline, Ligue Pulmonaire Vaudoise.

Effect of expiratory positive airway pressure on sleep disordered breathing.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the effect of expiratory positive airway pressure on end expiratory lung volume (EELV) and sleep disordered breathing in obstructive sleep apnea patients. DESIGN: Observational physiology study PARTICIPANTS: We studied 10 OSA patients during sleep wearing a facial mask. We recorded 1 hour of NREM sleep without treatment (baseline) and 1 hour with 10 cm H2O EPAP in random order, while measuring EELV and breathing pattern. RESULTS: The mean EELV change between baseline and EPAP was only 13.3 mL (range 2-25 mL). Expiratory time was significantly increased with EPAP compared to baseline 2.64 +/- 0.54 vs 2.16 +/- 0.64 sec (P = 0.002). Total respiratory time was longer with EPAP than at baseline 4.44 +/- 1.47 sec vs 3.73 +/- 0.88 sec (P = 0.3), and minute ventilation was lower with EPAP vs baseline 7.9 +/- 4.17 L/min vs 9.05 +/- 2.85 L/min (P = 0.3). For baseline (no treatment) and EPAP respectively, the mean apnea+hypopnea index (AHI) was 62.6 +/- 28.7 and 56.8 +/- 30.3 events per hour (P = 0.4). CONCLUSION: In OSA patients during sleep, the application of 10 cm H2O EPAP led to prolongation of expiratory time with only marginal increases in FRC. These findings suggest important mechanisms exist to avoid hyperinflation during sleep.

Modelització de les propietats òptiques de partícules metàl•liques en matriu dielèctrica

En el marc del projecte "Modelització de les propietats òptiques de partícules metàl•liques en matriu dielèctrica" s'han desenvolupat un conjunt d'eines numèriques que permeten avançar en l'ús de l'espectroscòpia òptica per a l'obtenció d'informació morfològica de materials compostos consistents en partícules metàl•liques en matriu dielèctrica. S'han implementat esquemes numèrics per a calcular les propietats òptiques de materials compostos on les partícules poden presentar una distribució de mides i formes i diferent graus d'ordenament espacial. Les simulacions s'han realitzat a dos nivells: i) amb l’aproximació quasi-estàtica, que permet descriure el comportament d'aquests materials en termes de constants òptiques efectives i ii) amb càlculs electrodinàmics exactes, que han servit per avaluar la validesa de l’aproximació anterior i que han permès d'estudiar la interacció de partícules amb feixos de llum focalitzats o amb polarització no homogènia. A través de l’anàlisi d'aquestes simulacions, s'han desenvolupat models senzills que permeten parametritzar la influència de diferents quantitats físiques en el comportament òptic del material. Aquests models s'han implementat en un programari de càlcul que permeten trobar el valor òptim dels paràmetres físics d'interès mitjançant l'ajust d'espectres òptics. Els models s'han avaluat amb l'anàlisi de dades experimentals subministrades per altres laboratoris.

Influence of reconstruction parameters during filtered backprojection and ordered-subset expectation maximization in the measurement of the left-ventricular volumes and function during gated SPECT.

A crucial method for investigating patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is the calculation of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). It is, consequently, imperative to precisely estimate the value of LVEF--a process that can be done with myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. Therefore, the present study aimed to establish and compare the estimation performance of the quantitative parameters of the reconstruction methods filtered backprojection (FBP) and ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM). METHODS: A beating-heart phantom with known values of end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, and LVEF was used. Quantitative gated SPECT/quantitative perfusion SPECT software was used to obtain these quantitative parameters in a semiautomatic mode. The Butterworth filter was used in FBP, with the cutoff frequencies between 0.2 and 0.8 cycles per pixel combined with the orders of 5, 10, 15, and 20. Sixty-three reconstructions were performed using 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 16 OSEM subsets, combined with several iterations: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 32, and 64. RESULTS: With FBP, the values of end-diastolic, end-systolic, and the stroke volumes rise as the cutoff frequency increases, whereas the value of LVEF diminishes. This same pattern is verified with the OSEM reconstruction. However, with OSEM there is a more precise estimation of the quantitative parameters, especially with the combinations 2 iterations × 10 subsets and 2 iterations × 12 subsets. CONCLUSION: The OSEM reconstruction presents better estimations of the quantitative parameters than does FBP. This study recommends the use of 2 iterations with 10 or 12 subsets for OSEM and a cutoff frequency of 0.5 cycles per pixel with the orders 5, 10, or 15 for FBP as the best estimations for the left ventricular volumes and ejection fraction quantification in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

Biased quantitative measurement of interval ordered homothetic preferences

We represent interval ordered homothetic preferences with a quantitative homothetic utility function and a multiplicative bias. When preferences are weakly ordered (i.e. when indifference is transitive), such a bias equals 1. When indifference is intransitive, the biasing factor is a positive function smaller than 1 and measures a threshold of indifference. We show that the bias is constant if and only if preferences are semiordered, and we identify conditions ensuring a linear utility function. We illustrate our approach with indifference sets on a two dimensional commodity space.

Three-dimensional ordered-subset expectation maximization iterative protocol for evaluation of left ventricular volumes and function by quantitative gated SPECT: a dynamic phantom study.

The purposes of this study were to characterize the performance of a 3-dimensional (3D) ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM) algorithm in the quantification of left ventricular (LV) function with (99m)Tc-labeled agent gated SPECT (G-SPECT), the QGS program, and a beating-heart phantom and to optimize the reconstruction parameters for clinical applications. METHODS: A G-SPECT image of a dynamic heart phantom simulating the beating left ventricle was acquired. The exact volumes of the phantom were known and were as follows: end-diastolic volume (EDV) of 112 mL, end-systolic volume (ESV) of 37 mL, and stroke volume (SV) of 75 mL; these volumes produced an LV ejection fraction (LVEF) of 67%. Tomographic reconstructions were obtained after 10-20 iterations (I) with 4, 8, and 16 subsets (S) at full width at half maximum (FWHM) gaussian postprocessing filter cutoff values of 8-15 mm. The QGS program was used for quantitative measurements. RESULTS: Measured values ranged from 72 to 92 mL for EDV, from 18 to 32 mL for ESV, and from 54 to 63 mL for SV, and the calculated LVEF ranged from 65% to 76%. Overall, the combination of 10 I, 8 S, and a cutoff filter value of 10 mm produced the most accurate results. The plot of the measures with respect to the expectation maximization-equivalent iterations (I x S product) revealed a bell-shaped curve for the LV volumes and a reverse distribution for the LVEF, with the best results in the intermediate range. In particular, FWHM cutoff values exceeding 10 mm affected the estimation of the LV volumes. CONCLUSION: The QGS program is able to correctly calculate the LVEF when used in association with an optimized 3D OSEM algorithm (8 S, 10 I, and FWHM of 10 mm) but underestimates the LV volumes. However, various combinations of technical parameters, including a limited range of I and S (80-160 expectation maximization-equivalent iterations) and low cutoff values (< or =10 mm) for the gaussian postprocessing filter, produced results with similar accuracies and without clinically relevant differences in the LV volumes and the estimated LVEF.

MYADM regulates Rac1 targeting to ordered membranes required for cell spreading and migration

Membrane organization into condensed domains or rafts provides molecular platforms for selective recruitment of proteins. Cell migration is a general process that requires spatiotemporal targeting of Rac1 to membrane rafts. The protein machinery responsible for making rafts competent to recruit Rac1 remains elusive. Some members of the MAL family of proteins are involved in specialized processes dependent on this type of membrane. Because condensed membrane domains are a general feature of the plasma membrane of all mammalian cells, we hypothesized that MAL family members with ubiquitous expression and plasma membrane distribution could be involved in the organization of membranes for cell migration. We show that myeloid-associated differentiation marker (MYADM), a protein with unique features within the MAL family, colocalizes with Rac1 in membrane protrusions at the cell surface and distributes in condensed membranes. MYADM knockdown (KD) cells had altered membrane condensation and showed deficient incorporation of Rac1 to membrane raft fractions and, similar to Rac1 KD cells, exhibited reduced cell spreading and migration. Results of rescue-of-function experiments by expression of MYADM or active Rac1L61 in cells knocked down for Rac1 or MYADM, respectively, are consistent with the idea that MYADM and Rac1 act on parallel pathways that lead to similar functional outcomes.

New insights on the crystalline forms in binary systems of n-alkanes: Characterization of the solid ordered phases in the phase diagram tricosane + pentacosane

X-ray diffraction analyses of the pure components n-tricosane and n-pentacosane and of their binary mixed samples have enabled us to characterize the crystalline phases observed at low temperature. On the contrary to what was announced in literature on the structural behavior of mixed samples in odd-odd binary systems with D n = 2, the three domains are not all orthorhombic. This work has enabled us to show that two of the domains are, in fact, monoclinic, (Aa, Z = 4) and the other one is orthorhombic (Pca21, Z = 4). The conclusions drawn in this work can be easily transposed to other binary systems of n-alkanes.