An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Synthesis of new vegetable oil-based polymeric materials

A crescente procura de recursos fosseis a que se tem assistido nos ultimos anos, tem resultado num crescimento sem precedentes dos precos, com consequencias imprevisiveis e que levara, no espaco de decadas, ao seu inevitavel esgotamento. A procura de um modelo de desenvolvimento sustentavel, baseado em recursos renovaveis e o grande desafio que se coloca a civilizacao no seculo XXI. A biomassa vegetal, atraves das designadas gBio-refinarias h, e uma alternativa logica para a producao de produtos quimicos e de materiais mas tambem de combustiveis e energia. Os oleos vegetais constituem uma das fracoes da biomassa vegetal, cuja exploracao tem merecido redobrada atencao nos ultimos anos, como fonte de materiais e de combustiveis. Assim, a presente dissertacao tem por objetivo o desenvolvimento de novos materiais polimericos derivados de oleos vegetais, seguindo duas abordagens distintas, nomeadamente a preparacao de polimeros atraves de polimerizacao por etapas e polimerizacao em cadeia (Parte B e C, respetivamente). Em primeiro lugar, foram sintetizados poliesteres alifaticos de cadeia longa a partir de monomeros provenientes do oleo de colza (Capitulo III). A auto-metatese do acido erucico com catalisadores de rutenio, seguida de hidrogenacao da ligacao dupla, originou o acido 1,26-hexacosanodioico, que por sua vez foi convertido em hexacosano-1,26-diol. Subsequentemente, a policondensacao do acido ƒ¿,ƒÖ-dicarboxilico de cadeia longa com o hexacosano-1,26-diol originou o poliester 26,26. O diacido C26 foi tambem polimerizado com outros alcano-diois de cadeia curta, nomeadamente o dodecano-1,12-diol e o butano-1,2-diol, produzindo, respetivamente, os poliesteres 12,26 e 4,26. Estes poliesteres de fontes 100% renovaveis possuem valores de Mn na ordem dos 8-14 kDa e valores de PDI entre 2.1 e 2.7. As propriedades destes poliesteres alifaticos foram avaliadas atraves de varias tecnicas, revelando elevada cristalinidade (com uma estrutura cristalina como a do polietileno) e elevadas temperaturas de fusao (74-104 ‹C), cristalizacao (68-92 ‹C) e degradacao (323-386 ‹C). Em segundo lugar, foram sintetizados polimeros lineares termo-reversiveis a partir de derivados do oleo de ricinio (Capitulo IV). Para tal foram preparados monomeros que incorporam aneis furanicos inseridos atraves do acoplamento tiol-eno, e que posteriormente foram polimerizados pela reacao de Diels-Alder (DA) entre os grupos furano (dieno A) e estruturas complementares do tipo maleimida (dienofilo B). Para as polimerizacoes DA foram consideradas duas abordagens diferentes, nomeadamente (i) o uso de monomeros com dois aneis furanicos terminais em conjunto com uma bismaleimida (sistemas AA+BB) e (ii) a utilizacao de um monomero que incorpora ambos os grupos reativos, furano e maleimida, na sua estrutura (sistema AB). Este estudo demonstrou claramente que ambas as estratégias foram bem sucedidas embora com diferentes resultados em termos da natureza dos produtos obtidos. Estes polímeros lineares apresentam valores relativamente baixos de Tg (-40 to -2 °C) devido à natureza flexível dos grupos separadores das funções reativas, e de Mn (4.5-9.0 kDa) dada a observada tendência de ciclização associada a concentrações baixas de monómero. A aplicação da reação de retro-DA aos polímeros em causa confirmou o seu caráter reversível, ou seja, a possibilidade de promover, em condições controladas, a despolimerização com recuperação dos monómeros de partida. Esta particularidade abre caminhos para materiais macromoleculares originais com aplicações promissoras tais como auto-reparação e reciclabilidade. Em terceiro lugar, sintetizaram-se polímeros não-lineares termo-reversíveis a partir de derivados do óleo de ricínio (Capítulo V). Para tal foram preparados monómeros trifuncionais e posteriormente polimerizados através da reação de DA entre os grupos reativos complementares furano/maleimida. Foram consideradas três abordagens distintas para preparar estes polímeros não-lineares, nomeadamente através da utilização de (i) um monómero bisfurânico em combinação com uma trismaleimida (sistema A2+B3) e (ii) um monómero trisfurânico em conjunto com uma bismaleimida (sistema A3+B2) que originaram materiais ramificados ou reticulados, e ainda (iii) a utilização de monómeros assimetricamente substituídos do tipo A2B ou AB2 capazes de originar estruturas macromoleculares hiper-ramificadas. Todos os sistemas apresentaram valores de Tg perto de 0 °C, o que era de esperar para estes materiais não-lineares. A aplicação da reação de retro-DA comprovou mais uma vez o caráter termo-reversível das polimerizações em causa. Em quarto lugar e último lugar, foram preparados copolímeros de acetato de vinilo (VAc) com monómeros derivados de óleo de girassol (Capítulo VI). Ésteres vinílicos de ácidos gordos (FAVE) foram sintetizados por transvinilação dos ácidos oleico e linoleico com VAc catalisada por um complexo de irídio. Os monómeros vinílicos preparados foram caracterizados e posteriormente homopolimerizados e copolimerizados com VAc através do uso dos grupos vinílicos terminais como função inicial de polimerização. A variação do tipo e quantidade de monómero FAVE e da quantidade de iniciador radicalar originou copolímeros de VAc com valores de Mn na gama de 1.2-3.0 kDa e valores de Tg de -5 a 16 °C. Os copolímeros foram avaliados em testes de cura oxidativa através das insaturações nas suas cadeias alifáticas para formar materiais reticulados, e os resultados sugerem que eles podem ser sistemas efetivos de cura para aplicações como tintas, vernizes e outros tipos de revestimento. Todos os materiais poliméricos preparados ao longo deste trabalho constituem contribuições atrativas para a área dos polímeros oriundos de recursos renováveis e representam uma prova indiscutível de que os óleos vegetais são percursores promissores de materiais macromoleculares com potenciais aplicações.

The Alberta Dilemma: Optimal Sharing of a Water Resource by an Agricultural and an Oil Sector

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the optimal time paths of production and water usage by an agricultural and an oil sector that have to share a limited water resource. We show that for any given water stock, if the oil stock is sufficiently large, it will become optimal to have a phase during which the agricultural sector is inactive. This may mean having an initial phase during which the two sectors are active, then a phase during which the water is reserved for the oil sector and the agricultural sector is inactive, followed by a phase during which both sectors are active again. The agricultural sector will always be active in the end as the oil stock is depleted and the demand for water from the oil sector decreases. In the case where agriculture is not constrained by the given natural inflow of water once there is no more oil, we show that oil extraction will always end with a phase during which oil production follows a pure Hotelling path, with the implicit price of oil net of extraction cost growing at the rate of interest. If the natural inflow of water does constitute a constraint for agriculture, then oil production never follows a pure Hotelling path, because its full marginal cost must always reflect not only the imputed rent on the finite oil stock, but also the positive opportunity cost of water.

Domestic policy responses to the food price crisis: The case of Bolivia

In face of the global food crisis of 2007-2008, severe concerns arose about how developing countries would be affected by the extreme short-term fluctuations in international commodity prices. We examine the effects of the crisis on Bolivia, one of the poorest countries of the Americas. We focus on the effectiveness of the domestic policy interventions in preventing spillovers of the development of international food prices to domestic markets. Using a cointegration model, we study price interdependencies of wheat flour, sunflower oil and poultry. The analysis suggests that the policy measures taken had little effect on food security during the food crisis. Throughout the entire period, perfect price transmission between the Bolivian poultry and sunflower oil markets and the respective international reference markets existed. Bolivian prices were determined by international prices and the policy interventions in the markets of these two commodities were not found to have had an effect. The government's large-scale wheat flour imports did not shield Bolivian consumers from the shocks of international prices.

Energy saving innovations, non-exhaustible sources of energy and long-run: what would happen if we run out of oil?

We formulate and solve a model of factor saving technological improvement considering three factors of production: labor, capital and energy. The productive activities have three main characteristics: first, in order to use capital goods firms need energy; second, there are two sources of energy: non-exhaustible and exhaustible; third, capital goods can be of different qualities and the quality of these goods can be changed along two dimensions -reducing the need of energy or changing the source of energy used in the production process. The economy goes through three stages of development after industrialization. In the first, firms make use of exhaustible energy and the e¢ ciency in the use of energy is constant. In the second stage, as the price of energy grows the e¢ ciency in its use is increased. In the third stage, the price of exhaustible sources is so high that firms have incentives to use non-exhaustible sources of energy. During this stage the price of energy is constant. In this set up, the end of the oil age has level effects on consumption and output but it does not cause the collapse of the economic system.

The olive oil and cotton lint sectors in the European Union

This paper examines and analyses the impacts of the reformed CAP as well as the decisions of the new round of negotiations for the olive oil and cotton sectors in the European Union. The aim of this study is to estimate changes in supply (agricultural supply plus intermediate demand and final production), demand (consumption), price and stock formation (import, export, beginning and ending stocks, national price formation) for both the olive oil and cotton sectors. The model designed for this purpose is partial equilibrium and policy oriented. The objectives of this model are to estimate changes in the production and consumption of the two products concerned, to determine how the reformed CAP and the new round of negotiations of the WTO affect these two sectors to analyse the evolution of export and import volumes, and finally to determine how this evolution will influence the welfare situation of the olive and cotton sectors.

Design and techno-economic evaluation of microbial oil production as a renewable resource for biodiesel and oleochemical production

Experimental results from the open literature have been employed for the design and techno-economic evaluation of four process flowsheets for the production of microbial oil or biodiesel. The fermentation of glucose-based media using the yeast strain Rhodosporidium toruloides has been considered. Biodiesel production was based on the exploitation of either direct transesterification (without extraction of lipids from microbial biomass) or indirect transesterifaction of extracted microbial oil. When glucose-based renewable resources are used as carbon source for an annual production capacity of 10,000 t microbial oil and zero cost of glucose (assuming development of integrated biorefineries in existing industries utilising waste or by-product streams) the estimated unitary cost of purified microbial oil is $3.4/kg. Biodiesel production via indirect transesterification of extracted microbial oil proved more cost-competitive process compared to the direct conversion of dried yeast cells. For a price of glucose of $400/t oil production cost and biodiesel production cost are estimated to be $5.5/kg oil and $5.9/kg biodiesel, correspondingly. Industrial implementation of microbial oil production from oleaginous yeast is strongly dependent on the feedstock used and on the fermentation stage where significantly higher productivities and final microbial oil concentrations should be achieved.

The fiscal impact of trade liberalization and commodity price fluctuation: the case of Dominican Republic, 1980-1998

Includes bibliography

The fiscal impact of trade liberalization and commodity price fluctuation: the case of Costa Rica, 1980-1998

Includes bibliography

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Oil, paint and drug reporter.

Vols. include the proceedings (some summarized, some official stenographic reports) of the National Wholesale Druggists' Association (called 18 -1882, Western Wholesale Druggists' Association) and of other similar organizations.

The oil shock of 2005

During the course of 2005, the price of crude oil reached unprecedented high levels, at least in nominal terms. Australian motorists have become used to paying more than a dollar a litre for petrol. Given the past volatility in oil prices, often described in terms of a series of oil ‘shocks’ (the large price increases in 1973, 1979 and 1999), several questions arise. First, will current high prices persist, or will prices decline substantially as occurred after previous oil shocks? Second, is the current shortage of oil a temporary phenomenon, caused by inadequate investment in oil exploration, drilling and refining capacity, or is it a signal that the supply of oil available to the world has peaked? Third, will high oil prices lead to broader economic disruption, as is commonly supposed to have happened after previous shocks? Fourth, how painful will an adjustment to lower use of oil be? Finally, how does all this relate to our efforts to deal with the problem of climate change? This article is an effort to answer some of these questions in the light of the knowledge available to us.

Price transmission in the EU wholesale petroleum markets

This article employs nonlinear smooth transition models to analyze the relationship between upstream and midstream prices of petroleum products. We test for the presence of nonlinearities in price linkages using both weekly series constructed using official EU procedures and also daily industry series applied for the first time. Our results show that the estimated shape of the transition function and equilibrium reversion path depend on the frequency of the price dataset. Our analysis of the crude oil to wholesale price transmission provides evidence of nonlinearities when prices are observed with daily frequency. The nature of the nonlinearities provides evidence in support of the existence of menu costs or, more generally, frictions in the markets rather than supply adjustment costs. This result differs from that found for the U.S. petroleum markets. © 2012 American Statistical Association.

Causality in crude oil prices

Crude oil markets witness growing disparity between the quality of crudes supplied and demanded in the market. The market share of low-quality crudes is increasing due to the depletion of old fields and increasing demand. This is unnerving the practitioners and affecting the relevance of the traditional benchmark crudes due to the lack of lower quality benchmarks (Montepeque, 2005). In this article, we apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependence of 32 crudes in order to establish which crudes drive other prices and which ones simply follow general market trends. Our results indicate that some of the old benchmarks are still relevant while others can be disregarded. Our results also interestingly show that the low-quality Mediterranean Russian Urals crude, introduced in the late 1990s, has emerged recently as a significant driver of global prices. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.