Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10(6) ms(3) s(-1)) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

Impact of future climate changes on high pollution levels

Changes in climate variability as well as changes in extreme weather and climate events in the 20th century, especially those that took place during the last two to three decades of the 20th century, have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. Attempts to project the results of such studies in the future have been made under different assumptions. In this paper, we have chosen one of the well-known scenarios predicting changes of the climate in the world during the last 30 years of the 21st century. This scenario is used, together with several general predictions related to the future climate, to produce three climatic scenarios. The derived climatic scenarios are used to calculate predictions for future pollution levels in Denmark and in Europe by applying the Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM), on a space domain containing the whole of Europe.

The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM

A number of transient climate runs simulating the last 120kyr have been carried out using FAMOUS, a fast atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This is the first time such experiments have been done with a full AOGCM, providing a three-dimensional simulation of both atmosphere and ocean over this period. Our simulation thus includes internally generated temporal variability over periods from days to millennia, and physical, detailed representations of important processes such as clouds and precipitation. Although the model is fast, computational restrictions mean that the rate of change of the forcings has been increased by a factor of 10, making each experiment 12kyr long. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), northern hemisphere ice sheets and variations in solar radiation arising from changes in the Earth's orbit are treated as forcing factors, and are applied either separately or combined in different experiments. The long-term temperature changes on Antarctica match well with reconstructions derived from ice-core data, as does variability on timescales longer than 10 kyr. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cooling on Greenland is reasonably well simulated, although our simulations, which lack ice-sheet meltwater forcing, do not reproduce the abrupt, millennial scale climate shifts seen in northern hemisphere climate proxies or their slower southern hemisphere counterparts. The spatial pattern of sea surface cooling at the LGM matches proxy reconstructions reasonably well. There is significant anti-correlated variability in the strengths of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) on timescales greater than 10kyr in our experiments. We find that GHG forcing weakens the AMOC and strengthens the ACC, whilst the presence of northern hemisphere ice-sheets strengthens the AMOC and weakens the ACC. The structure of the AMOC at the LGM is found to be sensitive to the details of the ice-sheet reconstruction used. The precessional component of the orbital forcing induces ~20kyr oscillations in the AMOC and ACC, whose amplitude is mediated by changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. These forcing influences combine, to first order, in a linear fashion to produce the mean climate and ocean variability seen in the run with all forcings.

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

The role of dust in climate changes today, at the last glacial maximum and in the future.

Natural mineral aerosol (dust) is an active component of the climate system and plays multiple roles in mediating physical and biogeochemical exchanges between the atmosphere, land surface and ocean. Changes in the amount of dust in the atmosphere are caused both by changes in climate (precipitation, wind strength, regional moisture balance) and changes in the extent of dust sources caused by either anthropogenic or climatically induced changes in vegetation cover. Models of the global dust cycle take into account the physical controls on dust deflation from prescribed source areas (based largely on soil wetness and vegetation cover thresholds), dust transport within the atmospheric column, and dust deposition through sedimentation and scavenging by precipitation. These models successfully reproduce the first-order spatial and temporal patterns in atmospheric dust loading under modern conditions. Atmospheric dust loading was as much as an order-of-magnitude larger than today during the last glacial maximum (LGM). While the observed increase in emissions from northern Africa can be explained solely in terms of climate changes (colder, drier and windier glacial climates), increased emissions from other regions appear to have been largely a response to climatically induced changes in vegetation cover and hence in the extent of dust source areas. Model experiments suggest that the increased dust loading in tropical regions had an effect on radiative forcing comparable to that of low glacial CO2 levels. Changes in land-use are already increasing the dust loading of the atmosphere. However, simulations show that anthropogenically forced climate changes substantially reduce the extent and productivity of natural dust sources. Positive feedbacks initiated by a reduction of dust emissions from natural source areas on both radiative forcing and atmospheric CO2 could substantially mitigate the impacts of land-use changes, and need to be considered in climate change assessments.

Impacts of climate changes on crop physiology and food quality

Carbon emissions related to human activities have been significantly contributing to the elevation of atmospheric [CO(2)] and temperature. More recently, carbon emissions have greatly accelerated, thus much stronger effects on crops are expected. Here, we revise literature data concerning the physiological effects of CO(2) enrichment and temperature rise on crop species. We discuss the main advantages and limitations of the most used CO(2)-enrichment technologies, the Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) and the Free-Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE). Within the conditions expected for the next few years, the physiological responses of crops suggest that they will grow faster, with slight changes in development, such as flowering and fruiting, depending on the species. There is growing evidence suggesting that C(3) crops are likely to produce more harvestable products and that both C(3) and C(4) crops are likely to use less water with rising atmospheric [CO(2)] in the absence of stressful conditions. However, the beneficial direct impact of elevated [CO(2)] on crop yield can be offset by other effects of climate change, such as elevated temperatures and altered patterns of precipitation. Changes in food quality in a warmer, high-CO(2) world are to be expected, e.g., decreased protein and mineral nutrient concentrations, as well as altered lipid composition. We point out that studies related to changes in crop yield and food quality as a consequence of global climatic changes should be priority areas for further studies, particularly because they will be increasingly associated with food security. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The development of blowouts and foredunes in the Ilha Comprida barrier (Southeastern Brazil): the influence of Late Holocene climate changes on coastal sedimentation

Middle to Late Holocene barriers are conspicuous landforms in southeastern and southern Brazilian regions. The barriers in the coastal zones of northern Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo states (27 degrees 19`-24 degrees 00`S) are formed mainly by beach ridge alignments and many barriers present foredune and blowout alignments in their seaward portion. The development of these eolian landforms appears to record a regional shift in coastal dynamics and barrier building. In this context, the Ilha Comprida barrier stands out for its well-developed and well-preserved foredunes and blowouts. Based on the presence or not and type of eolian landforms, the Ilha Comprida barrier can be divided seaward into inner, middle and outer units. The inner unit is formed entirely by beach ridges. The middle unit comprises a narrow belt of blowouts (up to 15 m high) aligned alongshore. Blowout lobes pointing NNW are indicative of their generation by southern winds. The outer unit is represented by low (<= 1 m high) active or stabilized foredunes and a small transgressive dunefield (similar to 1 km(2)). Twenty-seven luminescence ages (SAR protocol) obtained for the beach ridges, foredunes, and blowouts of these three units allow definition of a precise chronology of these landforms and calculation of rates of coastal progradation. The inner unit presents ages greater than 1004 +/- 88 years. The blowouts of the middle unit show ages from 575 +/- 47 to 172 +/- 18 years. The ages of the outer unit are less than 108 +/- 10 years. Rates of coastal progradation for the inner and outer units are 0.71-0.82 m/year and 0.86-2.23 m/year, respectively. The main phase of blowout development correlates well with the Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic event. These results indicate that southern winds in subtropical Brazil became increasingly more intense and/or frequent during the LIA. These conditions persist to the present and are responsible for the development of the eolian landforms in the outer unit. Thus, barrier geomorphology can record global climatic events. The sensitivity of barrier systems in subtropical Brazil to Late Holocene climate changes was favored by the relative sea level stillstand during this time. Luminescence dating makes it possible to analyze barrier geomorphology during Late Holocene climate changes operating on timescales of a hundred to thousand years. These results improve our knowledge of barrier building and will help in the evaluation of the impact of future climate changes on coastal settings. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of climate changes on cross allergies: possible involvement of pollen transglutaminase

Allergies are a complex of symptoms derived from altered IgE-mediated reactions of the immune system towards substances known as allergens. Allergic sensibilization can be of food or respiratory origin and, in particular, apple and hazelnut allergens have been identified in pollens or fruits. Allergic cross-reactivity can occur in a patient reacting to similar allergens from different origins, justifying the research in both systems as in Europe a greater number of people suffers from apple fruit allergy, but little evidence exists about pollen. Apple fruit allergies are due to four different classes of allergens (Mal d 1, 2, 3, 4), whose allergenicity is related both to genotype and tissue specificity; therefore I have investigated their presence also in pollen at different time of germination to clarify the apple pollen allergenic potential. I have observed that the same four classes of allergens found in fruit are expressed at different levels also in pollen, and their presence might support that the apple pollen can be considered allergenic as the fruit, deducing that apple allergy could also be indirectly caused by sensitization to pollen. Climate changes resulting from increases in temperature and air pollution influence pollen allergenicity, responsible for the dramatic raise in respiratory allergies (hay fever, bronchial asthma, conjunctivitis). Although the link between climate change and pollen allergenicity is proven, the underlying mechanism is little understood. Transglutaminases (TGases), a class of enzymes able to post-translationally modify proteins, are activated under stress and involved in some inflammatory responses, enhancing the activity of pro-inflammatory phospholipase A2, suggesting a role in allergies. Recently, a calcium-dependent TGase activity has been identified in the pollen cell wall, raising the possibility that pollen TGase may have a role in the modification of pollen allergens reported above, thus stabilizing them against proteases. This enzyme can be involved also in the transamidation of proteins present in the human mucosa interacting with surface pollen or, finally, the enzyme itself can represent an allergen, as suggested by studies on celiac desease. I have hypothesized that this pollen enzyme can be affected by climate changes and be involved in exhacerbating allergy response. The data presented in this thesis represent a scientific basis for future development of studies devoted to verify the hypothesis set out here. First, I have demonstrated the presence of an extracellular TGase on the surface of the grain observed either at the apical or the proximal parts of the pollen-tube by laser confocal microscopy (Iorio et al., 2008), that plays an essential role in apple pollen-tube growth, as suggested by the arrest of tube elongation by TGase inhibitors, such as EGTA or R281. Its involvement in pollen tube growth is mainly confirmed by the data of activity and gene expression, because TGase showed a peak between 15 min and 30 min of germination, when this process is well established, and an optimal pH around 6.5, which is close to that recorded for the germination medium. Moreover, data show that pollen TGase can be a glycoprotein as the glycosylation profile is linked both with the activation of the enzyme and with its localization at the pollen cell wall during germination, because from the data presented seems that the active form of TGase involved in pollen tube growth and pollen-stylar interaction is more exposed and more weakly bound to the cell wall. Interestingly, TGase interacts with fibronectin (FN), a putative SAMs or psECM component, inducing possibly intracellular signal transduction during the interaction between pollen-stylar occuring in the germination process, since a protein immunorecognised by anti-FN antibody is also present in pollen, in particular at the level of pollen grain cell wall in a punctuate pattern, but also along the shank of the pollen tube wall, in a similar pattern that recalls the signal obtained with the antibody anti TGase. FN represents a good substrate for the enzyme activity, better than DMC usually used as standard substrate for animal TGase. Thus, this pollen enzyme, necessary for its germination, is exposed on the pollen surface and consequently can easily interact with mucosal proteins, as it has been found germinated pollen in studies conducted on human mucus (Forlani, personal communication). I have obtained data that TGase activity increases in a very remarkable way when pollen is exposed to stressful conditions, such as climate changes and environmental pollution. I have used two different species of pollen, an aero allergenic (hazelnut, Corylus avellana) pollen, whose allergenicity is well documented, and an enthomophylus (apple, Malus domestica) pollen, which is not yet well characterized, to compare data on their mechanism of action in response to stressors. The two pollens have been exposed to climate changes (different temperatures, relative humidity (rH), acid rain at pH 5.6 and copper pollution (3.10 µg/l)) and showed an increase in pollen surface TGase activity that is not accompanied to an induced expression of TGase immunoreactive protein with AtPNG1p. Probably, climate change induce an alteration or damage to pollen cell wall that carries the pollen grains to release their content in the medium including TGase enzyme, that can be free to carry out its function as confirmed by the immunolocalisation and by the in situ TGase activity assay data; morphological examination indicated pollen damage, viability significantly reduced and in acid rain conditions an early germination of apple pollen, thus possibly enhancing the TGase exposure on pollen surface. Several pollen proteins were post-translationally modified, as well as mammalian sPLA2 especially with Corylus pollen, which results in its activation, potentially altering pollen allergenicity and inflammation. Pollen TGase activity mimicked the behaviour of gpl TGase and AtPNG1p in the stimulation of sPLA2, even if the regulatory mechanism seems different to gpl TGase, because pollen TGase favours an intermolecular cross-linking between various molecules of sPLA2, giving rise to high-molecular protein networks normally more stable. In general, pollens exhibited a significant endogenous phospholipase activity and it has been observed differences according to the allergenic (Corylus) or not-well characterized allergenic (Malus) attitude of the pollen. However, even if with a different intensity level in activation, pollen enzyme share the ability to activate the sPLA2, thus suggesting an important regulatory role for the activation of a key enzyme of the inflammatory response, among which my interest was addressed to pollen allergy. In conclusion, from all the data presented, mainly presence of allergens, presence of an extracellular TGase, increasing in its activity following exposure to environmental pollution and PLA2 activation, I can conclude that also Malus pollen can behave as potentially allergenic. The mechanisms described here that could affect the allergenicity of pollen, maybe could be the same occurring in fruit, paving the way for future studies in the identification of hyper- and hypo- allergenic cultivars, in preventing environmental stressor effects and, possibly, in the production of transgenic plants.

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.