Unbiased estimating equations from working correlation models for irregularly timed repeated measures

The method of generalized estimating equation-, (GEEs) has been criticized recently for a failure to protect against misspecification of working correlation models, which in some cases leads to loss of efficiency or infeasibility of solutions. However, the feasibility and efficiency of GEE methods can be enhanced considerably by using flexible families of working correlation models. We propose two ways of constructing unbiased estimating equations from general correlation models for irregularly timed repeated measures to supplement and enhance GEE. The supplementary estimating equations are obtained by differentiation of the Cholesky decomposition of the working correlation, or as score equations for decoupled Gaussian pseudolikelihood. The estimating equations are solved with computational effort equivalent to that required for a first-order GEE. Full details and analytic expressions are developed for a generalized Markovian model that was evaluated through simulation. Large-sample ".sandwich" standard errors for working correlation parameter estimates are derived and shown to have good performance. The proposed estimating functions are further illustrated in an analysis of repeated measures of pulmonary function in children.

Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.

Long-term ambient air pollution exposure and self-reported morbidity in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health: A cross-sectional study

- Objective We sought to assess the effect of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution on the prevalence of self-reported health outcomes in Australian women. - Design Cross-sectional study - Setting and participants The geocoded residential addresses of 26 991 women across 3 age cohorts in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health between 2006 and 2011 were linked to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure estimates from a land-use regression model. Annual average NO2 concentrations and residential proximity to roads were used as proxies of exposure to ambient air pollution. - Outcome measures Self-reported disease presence for diabetes mellitus, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and self-reported symptoms of allergies, breathing difficulties, chest pain and palpitations. - Methods Disease prevalence was modelled by population-averaged Poisson regression models estimated by generalised estimating equations. Associations between symptoms and ambient air pollution were modelled by multilevel mixed logistic regression. Spatial clustering was accounted for at the postcode level. - Results No associations were observed between any of the outcome and exposure variables considered at the 1% significance level after adjusting for known risk factors and confounders. - Conclusions Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution was not associated with self-reported disease prevalence in Australian women. The observed results may have been due to exposure and outcome misclassification, lack of power to detect weak associations or an actual absence of associations with self-reported outcomes at the relatively low annual average air pollution exposure levels across Australia.

Air pollution and fasting blood glucose: A longitudinal study in China

Limited studies have examined the associations between air pollutants [particles with diameters of 10um or less (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)] and fasting blood glucose (FBG). We collected data for 27,685 participants who were followed during 2006 and 2008. Generalized Estimating Equation models were used to examine the effects of air pollutants on FBG while controlling for potential confounders. We found that increased exposure to NO2, SO2 and PM10 was significantly associated with increased FBG levels in single pollutant models (p<0.001). For exposure to 4 days’ average of concentrations, a 100 µg/m3 increase in SO2, NO2, and PM10 was associated with 0.17 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.15–0.19), 0.53 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.42–0.65), and 0.11 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.07–0.15) increase in FBG, respectively. In the multi-pollutant models, the effects of SO2 were enhanced, while the effects of NO2 and PM10 were alleviated. The effects of air pollutants on FBG were stronger in female, elderly, and overweight people than in male, young and underweight people. In conclusion, the findings suggest that air pollution increases the levels of FBG. Vulnerable people should pay more attention on highly polluted days to prevent air pollution-related health issues.

Early-onset depressive disorders,related mental health disorders and substance use-A prospective : longitudinal study of Finnish twins born 1983-1987

Early-onset psychiatric illnesses effects scatter to academic achievements as well as functioning in familial and social environments. From a public health point of view, depressive disorders are the most significant mental health disorders that begin in adolescence. Using prospective and longitudinal design, this study aimed to increase the understanding of early-onset depressive disorders, related mental health disorders and developing substance use in a large population-derived sample of adolescent Finnish twins. The participants of this study, FinnTwin12, an ongoing longitudinal population-based study, came from Finnish families with twins born in 1983-87 (exhaustive of five birth cohorts, identified from Finland s Central Population Register). With follow-up ongoing at age 20-24, this thesis assessed adolescent mental health in the first three waves, starting from baseline age 11-12 to follow-ups at age 14 and 17½. Some 5600 twins participated in questionnaire assessments of a wide range of health related behaviors. Mental health was further assessed among an intensively studied subsample of 1852 adolescents, who completed also professionally administered interviews at age 14, which provided data for full DSM-IV/III-R (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Health disorders, 4th and 3rd editions) diagnoses. The participation rates of the study were 87-92%. The results of the study suggest, that the diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder (MDD) may not capture youth with clinically significant early-onset depressive conditions outside clinical settings. Milder cases of depression, namely adolescents fulfilling the diagnostic criteria for minor depressive disorder, a qualitatively similar condition to MDD with fewer symptoms are also associated with marked suicidal thoughts, plans and attempts, recurrences and a high degree of comorbidity. Prospectively and longitudinally, early-onset depressive disorders were of substantial importance in the context of other mental health disorders and substance use behaviors: These data from a large population-derived sample established a substantial overlap between early-onset depressive disorders and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adolescent females, both of them significantly predictive for development of substance use among girls. Only in females baseline DSM-IV ADHD symptoms were strong predictors of alcohol abuse and dependence and illicit drug use at age 14 and frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use at age 17.½ when conduct disorder and previous substance use were controlled for. Early-onset depressive disorders were also prospectively and longitudinally associated to daily smoking behavior, smokeless tobacco use, frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use and eating disorders. Analysis of discordant twins suggested that these predictive associations were independent of familial confounds, such as family income, structure and parental models. In sum, early-onset depressive disorders predict subsequent involvement of substance use and psychiatric morbidity. A heightened risk for substance use is substantial also among those depressed below categorical diagnosis of MDD. Whether early recognition and interventions among these young people hold potential for substance use prevention further in their lives has potential public health significance and calls for more research. Data from this population-derived sample with balanced representation of boys and girls, suggested that boys and girls with ADHD behaviors may differ from each other in their vulnerability to substance use and depressive disorders: the data suggest more adverse substance use outcome for girls that was not attenuated by conduct disorder or previous substance use. Further, the prospective associations of early-onset depressive disorders and future elevated levels of addictive substance use is not explained by familial factors supporting future substance use, which could have important implications for substance use prevention.

Mediation of improvements in sun protective and skin self-examination behaviours: Results from the healthy text study

Objective Melanoma is on the rise, especially in Caucasian populations exposed to high ultraviolet radiation such as in Australia. This paper examined the psychological components facilitating change in skin cancer prevention or early detection behaviours following a text message intervention. Methods The Queensland-based participants were 18 to 42 years old, from the Healthy Text study (N = 546). Overall, 512 (94%) participants completed the 12-month follow-up questionnaires. Following the social cognitive model, potential mediators of skin self-examination (SSE) and sun protection behaviour change were examined using stepwise logistic regression models. Results At 12-month follow-up, odds of performing an SSE in the past 12 months were mediated by baseline confidence in finding time to check skin (an outcome expectation), with a change in odds ratio of 11.9% in the SSE group versus the control group when including the mediator. Odds of greater than average sun protective habits index at 12-month follow-up were mediated by (a) an attempt to get a suntan at baseline (an outcome expectation) and (b) baseline sun protective habits index, with a change in odds ratio of 10.0% and 11.8%, respectively in the SSE group versus the control group. Conclusions Few of the suspected mediation pathways were confirmed with the exception of outcome expectations and past behaviours. Future intervention programmes could use alternative theoretical models to elucidate how improvements in health behaviours can optimally be facilitated.

The Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ-28): A parsimonious version validated for longitudinal use from 2-5 years

Prospective studies and intervention evaluations that examine change over time assume that measurement tools measure the same construct at each occasion. In the area of parent-child feeding practices, longitudinal measurement properties of the questionnaires used are rarely verified. To ascertain that measured change in feeding practices reflects true change rather than change in the assessment, structure, or conceptualisation of the constructs over time, this study examined longitudinal measurement invariance of the Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ) subscales (9 constructs; 40 items) across 3 time points. Mothers participating in the NOURISH trial reported their feeding practices when children were aged 2, 3.7, and 5 years (N = 404). Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) within a structural equation modelling framework was used. Comparisons of initial cross-sectional models followed by longitudinal modelling of subscales, resulted in the removal of 12 items, including two redundant or poorly performing subscales. The resulting 28-item FPSQ-28 comprised 7 multi-item subscales: Reward for Behaviour, Reward for Eating, Persuasive Feeding, Overt Restriction, Covert Restriction, Structured Meal Setting and Structured Meal Timing. All subscales showed good fit over 3 time points and each displayed at least partial scalar (thresholds equal) longitudinal measurement invariance. We recommend the use of a separate single item indicator to assess the family meal setting. This is the first study to examine longitudinal measurement invariance in a feeding practices questionnaire. Invariance was established, indicating that the subscales of the shortened FPSQ-28 can be used with mothers to validly assess change in 7 feeding constructs in samples of children aged 2-5 years of age.

Longitudinal changes in choroidal thickness and eye growth in childhood

PURPOSE To examine longitudinal changes in choroidal thickness and axial length in a population of children with a range of refractive errors. METHODS One hundred and one children (41 myopes and 60 nonmyopes) aged 10 to 15 years participated in this prospective, observational longitudinal study. For each child, 6-month measures of choroidal thickness (using enhanced depth imaging optical coherence tomography) and axial ocular biometry were collected four times over an 18-month period. Linear mixed-models were used to examine the longitudinal changes in choroidal thickness and the relationship between changes in choroidal thickness and axial eye growth over the study period. RESULTS A significant group mean increase in subfoveal choroidal thickness was observed over 18 months (mean increase 13 6 22 lm, P < 0.001). Myopic children exhibited significantly thinner choroids compared with nonmyopic children (P < 0.001), although there was no significant time by refractive group interaction (P ¼ 0.46), indicating similar changes in choroidal thickness over time in myopes and nonmyopes. However, a significant association between the change in choroidal thickness and the change in axial length over time was found (P < 0.001, β = −0.14). Children showing faster axial eye growth exhibited significantly less choroidal thickening over time compared with children showing slower axial eye growth. CONCLUSIONS A significant increase in choroidal thickness occurs over an 18-month period in normal 10- to 15-year-old children. Children undergoing faster axial eye growth exhibited less thickening and, in some cases, a thinning of the choroid. These findings support a potential role for the choroid in the mechanisms regulating eye growth in childhood.

Efficacy of family mediation and the role of family violence: Study protocol

Background Family law reforms in Australia require separated parents in dispute to attempt mandatory family dispute resolution (FDR) in community-based family services before court attendance. However, there are concerns about such services when clients present with a history of high conflict and family violence. This study protocol describes a longitudinal study of couples presenting for family mediation services. The study aims to describe the profile of family mediation clients, including type of family violence, and determine the impact of violence profiles on FDR processes and outcomes, such as the type and durability of shared parenting arrangements and clients’ satisfaction with mediated agreements. Methods A mixed method, naturalistic longitudinal design is used. The sampling frame is clients presenting at nine family mediation centres across metropolitan, outer suburban, and regional/rural sites in Victoria, Australia. Data are collected at pre-test, completion of mediation, and six months later. Self-administered surveys are administered at the three time points, and a telephone interview at the final post-test. The key study variable is family violence. Key outcome measures are changes in the type and level of acrimony and violent behaviours, the relationship between violence and mediated agreements, the durability of agreements over six months, and client satisfaction with mediation. Discussion Family violence is a major risk to the physical and mental health of women and children. This study will inform debates about the role of family violence and how to manage it in the family mediation context. It will also inform decision-making about mediation practices by better understanding how mediation impacts on parenting agreements, and the implications for children, especially in the context of family violence.

Screening for partner violence among family mediation clients: Differentiating types of abuse

Family mediation is mandated in Australia for couples in dispute over separation and parenting as a first step in dispute resolution, except where there is a history of intimate partner violence. However, validation of effective well-differentiated partner violence screening instruments suitable for mediation settings is at an early phase of development. This study contributes to calls for better violence screening instruments in the mediation context to detect a differentiated range of abusive behaviors by examining the reliability and validity of both established scales, and newly developed scales that measured intimate partner violence by partner and by self. The study also aimed to examine relationships between types of abuse, and between gender and types of abuse. A third aim was to examine associations between types of abuse and other relationship indicators such as acrimony and parenting alliance. The data reported here are part of a larger mixed method, naturalistic longitudinal study of clients attending nine family mediation centers in Victoria, Australia. The current analyses on baseline cross-sectional screening data confirmed the reliability of three subscales of the Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS2), and the reliability and validity of three new scales measuring intimidation, controlling and jealous behavior, and financial control. Most clients disclosed a history of at least one type of violence by partner: 95% reported psychological aggression, 72% controlling and jealous behavior, 50% financial control, and 35% physical assault. Higher rates of abuse perpetration were reported by partner versus by self, and gender differences were identified. There were strong associations between certain patterns of psychologically abusive behavior and both acrimony and parenting alliance. The implications for family mediation services and future research are discussed.

Retirement Transition and Well-being : A 16-year Longitudinal Study

The ageing of the labour force and falling employment rates have forced policy makers in industrialized countries to find means of increasing the well-being of older workers and of lengthening their work careers. The main objective of this thesis was to study longitudinally how health, functional capacity, subjective well-being, and lifestyle change as people grow older, and what effect retirement has on these factors and on their relationships. The present study is a follow-up questionnaire study of Finnish municipal workers, conducted in 1981 to 1997 at the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. In 1981, a postal questionnaire was sent to 7344 municipal workers in different parts of Finland. The respondents were born between 1923 and 1937. A total of 6257 persons responded to the first questionnaire. In the end, a total of 3817 persons had responded to all four (1981, 1985, 1992, 1997) questionnaires. (The response rate was 69% of the living participants). Cross-tabulations, comparison of means, logistic regression analyses and general linear models with repeated measures were used to derive the results. The transition from work life to retirement, and the following years as a pensioner were associated with many changes. Involvement in various activities increased during the transition stage but later decreased to the previous level. Physical exercise was an exception: it became increasingly popular over the years. Perceived health improved markedly from the working stage to the retirement transition stage, even though morbidity increased steadily during the follow-up. On the other hand, functional capacity decreased over the follow-up, especially among those who were occupationally active until the retirement stage. Subjective well-being remained stable during the follow-up period. There were, however, great differences based on the type of work, favouring those whose work had been mental in nature. The impact of activity level on maintaining well-being became greater during the follow-up, whereas the effect of physical functioning diminished. Good physical functioning and an active life-style contributed to staying on at work until normal retirement age. Also work-related factors, i.e. possibilities for development and influence at work, responsibility for others, meaningful work, and satisfaction with working time arrangements were positively related to continuing working. The transition from work to retirement had a positive impact on a person s health and functional capacity. The study results support the view that it should be possible to ease one s work pace during the last years of a work career. This might lower the threshold between work and retirement and convince people that there will still be time to enjoy retirement also a few years later.

A little more gauge mediation and the light Higgs mass

We consider minimal models of gauge mediated supersymmetry breaking with an extra U(1) factor in addition to the Standard Model gauge group. A U(1) charged, Standard Model singlet is assumed to be present which allows for an additional NMSSM like coupling, lambda HuHdS. The U(1) is assumed to be flavour universal. Anomaly cancellation in the MSSM sector requires additional coloured degrees of freedom. The S field can get a large vacuum expectation value along with consistent electroweak symmetry breaking. It is shown that the lightest CP even Higgs boson can attain mass of the order of 125 GeV. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).

Anatomy of Higgs mass in supersymmetric inverse seesaw models

We compute the one loop corrections to the CP-even Higgs mass matrix in the supersymmetric inverse seesaw model to single out the different cases where the radiative corrections from the neutrino sector could become important. It is found that there could be a significant enhancement in the Higgs mass even for Dirac neutrino masses of O(30) GeV if the left-handed sneutrino soft mass is comparable or larger than the right-handed neutrino mass. In the case where right-handed neutrino masses are significantly larger than the supersymmetry breaking scale, the corrections can utmost account to an upward shift of 3 GeV. For very heavy multi TeV sneutrinos, the corrections replicate the stop corrections at 1-loop. We further show that general gauge mediation with inverse seesaw model naturally accommodates a 125 GeV Higgs with TeV scale stops. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Gravitational rescue of minimal gauge mediation

Gravity mediated supersymmetry breaking becomes comparable to gauge mediated supersymmetry breaking contributions when messenger masses are close to the GUT scale. By suitably arranging the gravity contributions, one can modify the soft supersymmetry breaking sector to generate a large stop mixing parameter and a light Higgs mass of 125 GeV. In this kind of hybrid models, however, the nice features of gauge mediation like flavor conservation, etc. are lost. To preserve the nice features, gravitational contributions should become important for lighter messenger masses and should be important only for certain fields. This is possible when the hidden sector contains multiple (at least two) spurions with hierarchical vacuum expectation values. In this case, the gravitational contributions can be organized to be ``just right.'' We present a complete model with two spurion hidden sector where the gravitational contribution is from a warped flavor model in a Randall-Sundrum setting. Along the way, we present simple expressions to handle renormalization group equations when supersymmetry is broken by two different sectors at two different scales.

Cannabis use and involuntary admission may mediate long-term adherence in first-episode psychosis patients: a prospective longitudinal study

Background: This study aimed to examine factors associated with treatment adherence in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients followed up over 8 years, especially involuntary first admission and stopping cannabis use. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal study of FEP patients collected data on symptoms, adherence, functioning,and substance use. Adherence to treatment was the main outcome variable and was categorized as ‘good’ or ‘bad’. Cannabis use during follow-up was stratified as continued use, stopped use, and never used. Bivariate and logistic regression models identified factors significantly associated with adherence and changes in adherence over the 8-year follow-up period. Results: Of the 98 FEP patients analyzed at baseline, 57.1% had involuntary first admission, 74.4% bad adherence,and 52% cannabis use. Good adherence at baseline was associated with Global Assessment of Functioning score (p = 0.019), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale score (p = 0.017) and voluntary admission (p < 0.001). Adherence patterns over 8 years included: 43.4% patients always bad, 26.1% always good, 25% improved from bad to good. Among the improved adherence group, 95.7% had involuntary first admission and 38.9% stopped cannabis use. In the subgroup of patients with bad adherence at baseline, involuntary first admission and quitting cannabis use during follow up were associated with improved adherence. Conclusions: The long-term association between treatment adherence and type of first admission and cannabis use in FEP patients suggest targets for intervention to improve clinical outcomes.