Copula-based spatial modelling of geometallurgical variables

The most important aspect of modelling a geological variable, such as metal grade, is the spatial correlation. Spatial correlation describes the relationship between realisations of a geological variable sampled at different locations. Any method for spatially modelling such a variable should be capable of accurately estimating the true spatial correlation. Conventional kriged models are the most commonly used in mining for estimating grade or other variables at unsampled locations, and these models use the variogram or covariance function to model the spatial correlations in the process of estimation. However, this usage assumes the relationships of the observations of the variable of interest at nearby locations are only influenced by the vector distance between the locations. This means that these models assume linear spatial correlation of grade. In reality, the relationship with an observation of grade at a nearby location may be influenced by both distance between the locations and the value of the observations (ie non-linear spatial correlation, such as may exist for variables of interest in geometallurgy). Hence this may lead to inaccurate estimation of the ore reserve if a kriged model is used for estimating grade of unsampled locations when nonlinear spatial correlation is present. Copula-based methods, which are widely used in financial and actuarial modelling to quantify the non-linear dependence structures, may offer a solution. This method was introduced by Bárdossy and Li (2008) to geostatistical modelling to quantify the non-linear spatial dependence structure in a groundwater quality measurement network. Their copula-based spatial modelling is applied in this research paper to estimate the grade of 3D blocks. Furthermore, real-world mining data is used to validate this model. These copula-based grade estimates are compared with the results of conventional ordinary and lognormal kriging to present the reliability of this method.

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. This study explored spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of locally-acquired dengue cases in Queensland State, Australia and identified target areas for effective interventions. A computerised locally-acquired dengue case dataset was collected from Queensland Health for Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. Dengue hot spots were detected using SatScan method. Descriptive spatial analysis showed that a total of 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in central and northern regions of tropical Queensland. A seasonal pattern was observed with most of the cases occurring in autumn. Spatial and temporal variation of dengue cases was observed in the geographic areas affected by dengue over time. Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in tropical Queensland, Australia. There is a clear evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of dengue and these clusters varied over time. These findings enabled us to detect and target dengue clusters suggesting that the use of geospatial information can assist the health authority in planning dengue control activities and it would allow for better design and implementation of dengue management programs.

Digital elevation model error in terrain analysis

Digital elevation models (DEMs) have been an important topic in geography and surveying sciences for decades due to their geomorphological importance as the reference surface for gravita-tion-driven material flow, as well as the wide range of uses and applications. When DEM is used in terrain analysis, for example in automatic drainage basin delineation, errors of the model collect in the analysis results. Investigation of this phenomenon is known as error propagation analysis, which has a direct influence on the decision-making process based on interpretations and applications of terrain analysis. Additionally, it may have an indirect influence on data acquisition and the DEM generation. The focus of the thesis was on the fine toposcale DEMs, which are typically represented in a 5-50m grid and used in the application scale 1:10 000-1:50 000. The thesis presents a three-step framework for investigating error propagation in DEM-based terrain analysis. The framework includes methods for visualising the morphological gross errors of DEMs, exploring the statistical and spatial characteristics of the DEM error, making analytical and simulation-based error propagation analysis and interpreting the error propagation analysis results. The DEM error model was built using geostatistical methods. The results show that appropriate and exhaustive reporting of various aspects of fine toposcale DEM error is a complex task. This is due to the high number of outliers in the error distribution and morphological gross errors, which are detectable with presented visualisation methods. In ad-dition, the use of global characterisation of DEM error is a gross generalisation of reality due to the small extent of the areas in which the decision of stationarity is not violated. This was shown using exhaustive high-quality reference DEM based on airborne laser scanning and local semivariogram analysis. The error propagation analysis revealed that, as expected, an increase in the DEM vertical error will increase the error in surface derivatives. However, contrary to expectations, the spatial au-tocorrelation of the model appears to have varying effects on the error propagation analysis depend-ing on the application. The use of a spatially uncorrelated DEM error model has been considered as a 'worst-case scenario', but this opinion is now challenged because none of the DEM derivatives investigated in the study had maximum variation with spatially uncorrelated random error. Sig-nificant performance improvement was achieved in simulation-based error propagation analysis by applying process convolution in generating realisations of the DEM error model. In addition, typology of uncertainty in drainage basin delineations is presented.

Mapping the risk of soil-transmitted helminthic infections in the Philippines

Background In order to increase the efficient allocation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) disease control resources in the Philippines, we aimed to describe for the first time the spatial variation in the prevalence of A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm across the country, quantify the association between the physical environment and spatial variation of STH infection and develop predictive risk maps for each infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Data on STH infection from 35,573 individuals across the country were geolocated at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was stratified geographically in two major regions: 1) Luzon and the Visayas and 2) Mindanao. Bayesian geostatistical models of STH prevalence were developed, including age and sex of individuals and environmental variables (rainfall, land surface temperature and distance to inland water bodies) as predictors, and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. The role of environmental variables was different between regions of the Philippines. This analysis revealed that while A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were widespread and highly endemic, hookworm infections were more circumscribed to smaller foci in the Visayas and Mindanao. Conclusions/Significance This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in STH infection prevalence within provinces of the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to STH interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional STH surveys should be prioritized to high-risk areas identified by our study in Luzon.

Optimizing a piezometric network in the estimation of the groundwater budget: a case study from a crystalline-rock watershed in southern India

An estimate of the groundwater budget at the catchment scale is extremely important for the sustainable management of available water resources. Water resources are generally subjected to over-exploitation for agricultural and domestic purposes in agrarian economies like India. The double water-table fluctuation method is a reliable method for calculating the water budget in semi-arid crystalline rock areas. Extensive measurements of water levels from a dense network before and after the monsoon rainfall were made in a 53 km(2)atershed in southern India and various components of the water balance were then calculated. Later, water level data underwent geostatistical analyses to determine the priority and/or redundancy of each measurement point using a cross-validation method. An optimal network evolved from these analyses. The network was then used in re-calculation of the water-balance components. It was established that such an optimized network provides far fewer measurement points without considerably changing the conclusions regarding groundwater budget. This exercise is helpful in reducing the time and expenditure involved in exhaustive piezometric surveys and also in determining the water budget for large watersheds (watersheds greater than 50 km(2)).

Wind-driven desertification: process modeling, remote monitoring, and forecasting

Arid and semiarid landscapes comprise nearly a third of the Earth's total land surface. These areas are coming under increasing land use pressures. Despite their low productivity these lands are not barren. Rather, they consist of fragile ecosystems vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbance.

The purpose of this thesis is threefold: (I) to develop and test a process model of wind-driven desertification, (II) to evaluate next-generation process-relevant remote monitoring strategies for use in arid and semiarid regions, and (III) to identify elements for effective management of the world's drylands.

In developing the process model of wind-driven desertification in arid and semiarid lands, field, remote sensing, and modeling observations from a degraded Mojave Desert shrubland are used. This model focuses on aeolian removal and transport of dust, sand, and litter as the primary mechanisms of degradation: killing plants by burial and abrasion, interrupting natural processes of nutrient accumulation, and allowing the loss of soil resources by abiotic transport. This model is tested in field sampling experiments at two sites and is extended by Fourier Transform and geostatistical analysis of high-resolution imagery from one site.

Next, the use of hyperspectral remote sensing data is evaluated as a substantive input to dryland remote monitoring strategies. In particular, the efficacy of spectral mixture analysis (SMA) in discriminating vegetation and soil types and detennining vegetation cover is investigated. The results indicate that hyperspectral data may be less useful than often thought in determining vegetation parameters. Its usefulness in determining soil parameters, however, may be leveraged by developing simple multispectral classification tools that can be used to monitor desertification.

Finally, the elements required for effective monitoring and management of arid and semiarid lands are discussed. Several large-scale multi-site field experiments are proposed to clarify the role of wind as a landscape and degradation process in dry lands. The role of remote sensing in monitoring the world's drylands is discussed in terms of optimal remote sensing platform characteristics and surface phenomena which may be monitored in order to identify areas at risk of desertification. A desertification indicator is proposed that unifies consideration of environmental and human variables.

Mapeamento digital do uso da terra da cobertura vegetal no Parque Estadual da Serra da Tiririca (PESET) a partir de imagens orbitais de alta resolução.

No Brasil, entre as áreas protegidas e regulamentadas por lei estão às denominadas Unidades de Conservação (UC) e são definidas assim por possuírem características ambientais, estéticas, históricas ou culturais relevantes, importantes na manutenção dos ciclos naturais, demandando regimes especiais de preservação, conservação ou exploração racional dos seus recursos. O Parque Estadual da Serra da Tiririca (PESET), criado pela Lei 1.901, de 29 de novembro de 1991 localizado entre os municípios de Niterói e Maricá no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, enquadra-se na categoria de UC de Proteção Integral abrigando uma extensa faixa de Mata Atlântica em seus limites. Para a presente pesquisa foi feita uma classificação de Uso da terra e cobertura vegetal, refinada por pesquisas feitas através do trabalho de campo, que subsidiou a elaboração da proposta de Zoneamento Ambiental para o parque. O processamento digital da imagem foi feito utilizando-se o sistema SPRING desenvolvido pelo Instituto de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). A confecção dos mapas temáticos foi feita com apoio do sistema Arcgis desenvolvido pela ESRI. O Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG) foi empregado para as modelagens ambientais. Nessa etapa foram consideradas, de forma integrada, a variabilidade taxonômica, a expressão territorial e as alterações temporais verificáveis em uma base de dados georreferenciada. A tecnologia SIG integra operações convencionais de bases de dados, relativas ao armazenamento, manipulação, análise, consulta e apresentação de dados, com possibilidades de seleção e busca de informações e suporte à análise geoestatística, conjuntamente com a possibilidade de visualização de mapas sofisticados e de análise espacial proporcionada pelos mapas. A opção por esta tecnologia busca potencializar a eficiência operacional e permitir planejamento estratégico e administração de problemas, tanto minimizando os custos operacionais como acelerando processos decisórios. O estudo feito através da modelagem computacional do PESET apresentará o emprego das técnicas amplamente utilizadas no monitoramento ambiental, sendo úteis aos profissionais destinados à gestão e aos tomadores de decisão no âmbito das políticas públicas relacionadas à gestão ambiental de Unidades de Conservação.

黄土沟壑区小流域土壤pH值的空间分布及条件模拟

土壤pH值是影响土壤养分有效性和化学物质在土壤中行为的主要因素,研究土壤pH值的空间分布特征对于土壤养分管理和土壤污染预测具有重要意义。该文用地统计学方法研究了环境因素复杂的黄土高原小流域土壤pH值空间分布特征。结果表明,黄土沟壑区小流域土壤pH值具有球形—指数套合模型的空间结构特征,其空间异质性主要来源于流域内土地利用和土壤侵蚀等随机因素。与有机质协同的Kriging法能较好地对土壤pH值进行估值,其估值范围小于实测数据,估值误差来源于复杂的环境因素。序贯高斯条件模拟的土壤pH值范围与实测数据接近,模拟的平均值低于实测数据,模拟误差来源于模拟过程中独特的Kriging算法及高斯特性。

油田高含水期剩余油分布规律研究

After systemic investigation of the techniques，route lines and mechanisms about the remaining oil，the dynamic migration and congregation behavior of the remaining oil are discussed on base of interaction between flowing and enriching of water and oil.After the micro-scope modeling of the fluid flow in porous media and the changes in petrol-physical properties of the flowing system, the characters of fluid fields and the dynamic distribution of oil are discussed, among which the preference-flowing is focused on. Based on the preference-flowing in porous media, the concept of the preference-flowing channels is developed. According to above, heterogeneous distribution of water and oil in the field and dynamic mechanism of remaining oil are all obvious. media can be divided into three kinds, directional, stochastic, arbitrary porous media. The main research results are as following: 1. Treating the characteristic parameters such as permeability, porosity and wettability as regional parameter, the fluid field with high water-cut has been established by geostatistical method, among which the difference of flowing pores and the changes of its petrol-physical properties during flooding are studied. 2. The flow process of water and oil are recurrent in physical simulation experiments, in which the mechanisms and phenomena are caught and analyzed. Fluid flow mechanics in porous media with preference-flowing channels have been studied. 3. The mutual coupling between water and oil is induced and the mathematical evolution equations including this interaction were built. . 4. Through coupling effect between flowing water and oil, the dynamic migration and congregation behavior of remaining oil depend upon this coupling. 5. Coupling between water and oil act as driving force and trapping force for the remaining oil. The coupling model of thesis has been verified by simplified the numerical model and compared results with Ng35 oil reservoir in Gudao oil field, it has important theoretical and application values for improving precision of remaining oil and production performance prediction, and is a new method for studying the mechanics of remaining oil in channeled porous media has been established. Key words：flow field，high water-cut，coupling，dominant flow in porous media，remaining oil

复杂地区地震成像技术研究

Aiming at solving the seismic imaging difficulty in complex area, the static correction methods and the migration imaging techniques taking the anisotropy into account are studied in this dissertation. To solve the static correction problems, a new tomography inversion approach is presented which takes use of the apparent slowness and apparent velocity and inverts both head and diving waves over the complete offset ranges. This approach is also taken practice to the practical seismic data processing of south areas of China and gets ideal effects. There are obvious differences between the actual statics and the statics based on the surface consistency hypothesis. In this dissertation, the exact differences formula is derived. The wave-eqation datuming method based on a single shot gather and the hybrid zero-offset wave-equation datuming algorithm based on f-x domain and f-k domain are presented at the same time. Further more, some forward modelings are made and tested. These methods are also put into practical seismic data processing and good results are made. In this dissertation, the true amplitude Kirchhoff pre-stack time migration fomula in VTI media is presented. The high-dense bispectral scanning technique based on the anelliptical time-shifted hyperbola and the geostatistical filtering are adopted to extract the anellipticity parameter. Simultaneously, combined with the practical seismic data imaging, the anisotropic pre-stack time migration flow is proposed and good processing results are made.

二氧化碳在孔隙咸水层中多相流动数值模拟研究

There has been a growing concern about the use of fossil fuels and its adverse effects on the atmospheric greenhouse and ecological environment. A reduction in the release rate of CO2 into the atmosphere poses a major challenge to the land ecology of China. The most promising way of achieving CO2 reduction is to dispose of CO2 in deep saline aquifers. Deep aquifers have a large potential for CO2 sequestration in geological medium in terms of volume and duration. Through the numerical simulation of multiphase flow in a porous media, the transformation and motion of CO2 in saline aquifers has been implemented under various temperature and hydrostatic pressure conditions, which plays an important role to the assessment of the reliability and safety of CO2 geological storage. As expected, the calculated results can provide meaningful and scientific information for management purposes. The key problem to the numerical simulation of multiphase flow in a porous media is to accurately capture the mass interface and to deal with the geological heterogeneity. In this study, the updated CE/SE (Space and time conservation element and solution element) method has been proposed, and the Hybrid Particle Level Set method (HPLS) has extended for multiphase flows in porous medium, which can accurately trace the transformation of the mass interface. The benchmark problems have been applied to evaluate and validate the proposed method. In this study, the reliability of CO2 storage in saline aquifers in Daqingzi oil field in Sunlong basin has been discussed. The simulation code developed in this study takes into account the state for CO2 covering the triple point temperature and pressure to the supercritical region. The geological heterogeneity has been implemented, using the well known geostatistical model (GSLIB) on the base of the hard data. The 2D and 3D model have been set up to simulate the CO2 multiphase flow in the porous saline aquifer, applying the CE/SE method and the HPLS method .The main contents and results are summarized as followings. (1) The 2D CE/SE method with first and second –order accuracy has been extended to simulate the multiphase flow in porous medium, which takes into account the contribution of source and sink in the momentum equation. The 3D CE/SE method with the first accuracy has been deduced. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed CE/SE method have been investigated, using the benchmark problems. (2) The hybrid particle level set method has been made appropriate and extended for capturing the mass interface of multiphase flows in porous media, and the numerical method for level set function calculated has been formulated. (3) The closed equations for multiphase flow in porous medium has been developed, adept to both the Darcy flow and non-Darcy flow, getting over the limitation of Reynolds number to the calculation. It is found that Darcy number has a decisive influence on pressure as well as velocity given the Darcy number. (4) The new Euler scheme for numerical simulations of multiphase flows in porous medium has been proposed, which is efficient and can accurately capture the mass interface. The artificial compressibility method has been used to couple the velocities and pressure. It is found that the Darcy number has determinant effects on the numerical convergence and stability. In terms of the different Darcy numbers, the coefficient of artificial compressibility and the time step have been obtained. (5) The time scale of the critical instability for critical CO2 in the saline aquifer has been found, which is comparable with that of completely CO2 dissolved saline aquifer. (6) The concept model for CO2 multiphase flows in the saline aquifer has been configured, based on the temperature, pressure, porosity as well as permeability of the field site .Numerical simulation of CO2 hydrodynamic trapping in saline aquifers has been performed, applying the proposed CE/SE method. The state for CO2 has been employed to take into account realistic reservoir conditions for CO2 geological sequestration. The geological heterogeneity has been sufficiently treated , using the geostatistical model. (7) It is found that the Rayleigh-Taylor instability phenomenon, which is associated with the penetration of saline fluid into CO2 fluid in the direction of gravity, has been observed in CO2 multiphase flows in the saline aquifer. Development of a mushroom-type spike is a strong indication of the formation of Kelvin-Helmholtz instability due to the developed short wavelength perturbations present along the interface and parallel to the bulk flow. Additional key findings: the geological heterogeneity can distort the flow convection. The ascending of CO2 can induce the persistent flow cycling effects. The results show that boundary conditions of the field site have determinant effects on the transformation and motion of CO2 in saline aquifers. It is confirmed that the proposed method and numerical model has the reliability to simulate the process of the hydrodynamic trapping, which is the controlling mechanism for the initial period of CO2 storage at time scale of 100 years.

The CPR Survey (1948-1997): a gridded database browser of plankton abundance in the North Sea.

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey provides a unique multi- decadal dataset on the abundance of plankton in the North Sea and North Atlantic and is one of only a few monitoring programmes operating at a large spatio- temporal scale. The results of all samples analysed from the survey since 1946 are stored on an Access Database at the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS) in Plymouth. The database is large, containing more than two million records (~80 million data points, if zero results are added) for more than 450 taxonomic entities. An open data policy is operated by SAHFOS. However, the data are not on-line and so access by scientists and others wishing to use the results is not interactive. Requests for data are dealt with by the Database Manager. To facilitate access to the data from the North Sea, which is an area of high research interest, a selected set of data for key phytoplankton and zooplankton species has been processed in a form that makes them readily available on CD for research and other applications. A set of MATLAB tools has been developed to provide an interpolated spatio-temporal description of plankton sampled by the CPR in the North Sea, as well as easy and fast access to users in the form of a browser. Using geostatistical techniques, plankton abundance values have been interpolated on a regular grid covering the North Sea. The grid is established on centres of 1 degree longitude x 0.5 degree latitude (~32 x 30 nautical miles). Based on a monthly temporal resolution over a fifty-year period (1948-1997), 600 distribution maps have been produced for 54 zooplankton species, and 480 distribution maps for 57 phytoplankton species over the shorter period 1958-1997. The gridded database has been developed in a user-friendly form and incorporates, as a package on a CD, a set of options for visualisation and interpretation, including the facility to plot maps for selected species by month, year, groups of months or years, long-term means or as time series and contour plots. This study constitutes the first application of an easily accessed and interactive gridded database of plankton abundance in the North Sea. As a further development the MATLAB browser is being converted to a user- friendly Windows-compatible format (WinCPR) for release on CD and via the Web in 2003.

Spatial Variability of Durum Wheat Yield as Related to Soil Parameters in an Organic Field

The yield in organic farming is generally much lower than its potential, which is due to its specificity. The objective of the present study was to quantify the yield spatial variation of wheat and relate it to soil parameters in an organic farm located in the north of the Negev Desert. Soil samples were gathered in a triangular grid at three time intervals. Yields were measured at 73 georeferenced points before the actual harvest. Several thematic maps of soil and yield parameters were produced using geographic information system and geostatistical methods. The strongest spatial correlation was found in the weight of 1000 grains and the weakest was in carbon flow. Temporal relationships were found between soil nitrate concentration, soil water content, and leaf area index. Wheat yield varied from 1.11 to 2.84 Mg ha(-1) and this remarkable variation indicates that the spatial analysis of soil and yield parameters is significant in organic agriculture.

Dynamical instability in surface permeability characteristics of building sandstones in response to salt accumulation over time

This paper explores how the surface permeability of sandstone blocks changes over time in response to repeated salt weathering cycles. Surface permeability controls the amount of moisture and dissolved salt that can penetrate in and facilitate decay. Connected pores permit the movement of moisture (and hence soluble salts) into the stone interior, and where areas are more or less permeable soluble salts may migrate along preferred pathways at differential rates. Previous research has shown that salts can accumulate in the near-surface zone and lead to partial pore blocking which influences subsequent moisture ingress and causes rapid salt accumulation in the near-surface zone.

Two parallel salt weathering simulations were carried out on blocks of Peakmoor Sandstone of different volumes. Blocks were removed from simulations after 2, 5, 10, 20 and 60 cycles. Permeability measurements were taken for these blocks at a resolution of 20 mm, providing a grid of 100 permeability values for each surface. The geostatistical technique of ordinary kriging was applied to the data to produce a smoothed interpolation of permeability for these surfaces, and hence improve understanding of the evolution of permeability over time in response to repeated salt weathering cycles.

Results illustrate the different responses of the sandstone blocks of different volumes to repeated salt weathering cycles. In both cases, after an initial subtle decline in the permeability (reflecting pore blocking), the permeability starts to increase — reflected in a rise in mean, maximum and minimum values. However, between 10 and 20 cycles, there is a jump in the mean and range permeability of the group A block surfaces coinciding with the onset of meaningful debris release. After 60 cycles, the range of permeability in the group A block surface had increased markedly, suggesting the development of a secondary permeability. The concept of dynamic instability and divergent behaviour is applied at the scale of a single block surface, with initial small-scale differences across a surface having larger scale consequences as weathering progresses.

After cycle 10, group B blocks show a much smaller increase in mean permeability, and the range stays relatively steady — this may be explained by the capillary conditions set up by the smaller volume of the stone, allowing salts to migrate to the ‘back’ of the blocks and effectively relieving stress at the ‘front’ face.