954 resultados para forecast errors


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This work presents an automated system for the measurement of form errors of mechanical components using an industrial robot. A three-probe error separation technique was employed to allow decoupling between the measured form error and errors introduced by the robotic system. A mathematical model of the measuring system was developed to provide inspection results by means of the solution of a system of linear equations. A new self-calibration procedure, which employs redundant data from several runs, minimizes the influence of probes zero-adjustment on the final result. Experimental tests applied to the measurement of straightness errors of mechanical components were accomplished and demonstrated the effectiveness of the employed methodology. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The procedure of on-line process control by attributes, known as Taguchi`s on-line process control, consists of inspecting the mth item (a single item) at every m produced items and deciding, at each inspection, whether the fraction of conforming items was reduced or not. If the inspected item is nonconforming, the production is stopped for adjustment. As the inspection system can be subject to diagnosis errors, one develops a probabilistic model that classifies repeatedly the examined item until a conforming or b non-conforming classification is observed. The first event that occurs (a conforming classifications or b non-conforming classifications) determines the final classification of the examined item. Proprieties of an ergodic Markov chain were used to get the expression of average cost of the system of control, which can be optimized by three parameters: the sampling interval of the inspections (m); the number of repeated conforming classifications (a); and the number of repeated non-conforming classifications (b). The optimum design is compared with two alternative approaches: the first one consists of a simple preventive policy. The production system is adjusted at every n produced items (no inspection is performed). The second classifies the examined item repeatedly r (fixed) times and considers it conforming if most classification results are conforming. Results indicate that the current proposal performs better than the procedure that fixes the number of repeated classifications and classifies the examined item as conforming if most classifications were conforming. On the other hand, the preventive policy can be averagely the most economical alternative rather than those ones that require inspection depending on the degree of errors and costs. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

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The procedure for online process control by attributes consists of inspecting a single item at every m produced items. It is decided on the basis of the inspection result whether the process is in-control (the conforming fraction is stable) or out-of-control (the conforming fraction is decreased, for example). Most articles about online process control have cited the stoppage of the production process for an adjustment when the inspected item is non-conforming (then the production is restarted in-control, here denominated as corrective adjustment). Moreover, the articles related to this subject do not present semi-economical designs (which may yield high quantities of non-conforming items), as they do not include a policy of preventive adjustments (in such case no item is inspected), which can be more economical, mainly if the inspected item can be misclassified. In this article, the possibility of preventive or corrective adjustments in the process is decided at every m produced item. If a preventive adjustment is decided upon, then no item is inspected. On the contrary, the m-th item is inspected; if it conforms, the production goes on, otherwise, an adjustment takes place and the process restarts in-control. This approach is economically feasible for some practical situations and the parameters of the proposed procedure are determined minimizing an average cost function subject to some statistical restrictions (for example, to assure a minimal levelfixed in advanceof conforming items in the production process). Numerical examples illustrate the proposal.

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Higher order (2,4) FDTD schemes used for numerical solutions of Maxwell`s equations are focused on diminishing the truncation errors caused by the Taylor series expansion of the spatial derivatives. These schemes use a larger computational stencil, which generally makes use of the two constant coefficients, C-1 and C-2, for the four-point central-difference operators. In this paper we propose a novel way to diminish these truncation errors, in order to obtain more accurate numerical solutions of Maxwell`s equations. For such purpose, we present a method to individually optimize the pair of coefficients, C-1 and C-2, based on any desired grid size resolution and size of time step. Particularly, we are interested in using coarser grid discretizations to be able to simulate electrically large domains. The results of our optimization algorithm show a significant reduction in dispersion error and numerical anisotropy for all modeled grid size resolutions. Numerical simulations of free-space propagation verifies the very promising theoretical results. The model is also shown to perform well in more complex, realistic scenarios.

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Potential errors in the application of mixture theory to the analysis of multiple-frequency bioelectrical impedance data for the determination of body fluid volumes are assessed. Potential sources of error include: conductive length; tissue fluid resistivity; body density; weight and technical errors of measurement. Inclusion of inaccurate estimates of body density and weight introduce errors of typically < +/-3% but incorrect assumptions regarding conductive length or fluid resistivities may each incur errors of up to 20%.

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The truncation errors associated with finite difference solutions of the advection-dispersion equation with first-order reaction are formulated from a Taylor analysis. The error expressions are based on a general form of the corresponding difference equation and a temporally and spatially weighted parametric approach is used for differentiating among the various finite difference schemes. The numerical truncation errors are defined using Peclet and Courant numbers and a new Sink/Source dimensionless number. It is shown that all of the finite difference schemes suffer from truncation errors. Tn particular it is shown that the Crank-Nicolson approximation scheme does not have second order accuracy for this case. The effects of these truncation errors on the solution of an advection-dispersion equation with a first order reaction term are demonstrated by comparison with an analytical solution. The results show that these errors are not negligible and that correcting the finite difference scheme for them results in a more accurate solution. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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In the adult olfactory nerve pathway of rodents, each primary olfactory axon forms a terminal arbor in a single glomerulus in the olfactory bulb. During development, axons are believed to project directly to and terminate precisely within a glomerulus without any exuberant growth or mistargeting. To gain insight into mechanisms underlying this process, the trajectories of primary olfactory axons during glomerular formation were studied in the neonatal period. Histochemical staining of mouse olfactory bulb sections with the lectin Dolichos biflorus-agglutinin revealed that many olfactory axons overshoot the glomerular layer and course into the deeper laminae of the bulb in the early postnatal period. Single primary olfactory axons were anterogradely labelled either with the lipophilic carbocyanine dye, 1,1'-dioctodecyl-3,3,3',3'-tetramethylindocarbocyanine perchlorate (DiI), or with horseradish peroxidase (HRP) by localized microinjections into the nerve fiber layer of the rat olfactory bulb. Five distinct trajectories of primary olfactory axons were observed in DLI-labelled preparations at postnatal day 1.5 (P1.5). Axons either coursed directly to and terminated specifically within a glomerulus, branched before terminating in a glomerulus, bypassed glomeruli and entered the underlying external plexiform layer, passed through the glomerular layer with side branches into glomeruli, or branched into more than one glomerulus. HRP-labelled axon arbors from eight postnatal ages were reconstructed by camera lucida and were used to determine arbor length, arbor area, and arbor branch number. Whereas primary olfactory axons display errors in laminar targeting in the mammalian olfactory bulb, axon arbors typically achieve their adult morphology without exuberant growth. Many olfactory axons appear not to recognize appropriate cues to terminate within the glomerular layer during the early postnatal period. However, primary olfactory axons exhibit precise targeting in the glomerular layer after P5.5, indicating temporal differences in either the presence of guidance cues or the ability of axons to respond to these cues. (C) 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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We show that quantum feedback control can be used as a quantum-error-correction process for errors induced by a weak continuous measurement. In particular, when the error model is restricted to one, perfectly measured, error channel per physical qubit, quantum feedback can act to perfectly protect a stabilizer codespace. Using the stabilizer formalism we derive an explicit scheme, involving feedback and an additional constant Hamiltonian, to protect an (n-1)-qubit logical state encoded in n physical qubits. This works for both Poisson (jump) and white-noise (diffusion) measurement processes. Universal quantum computation is also possible in this scheme. As an example, we show that detected-spontaneous emission error correction with a driving Hamiltonian can greatly reduce the amount of redundancy required to protect a state from that which has been previously postulated [e.g., Alber , Phys. Rev. Lett. 86, 4402 (2001)].

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In this paper use consider the problem of providing standard errors of the component means in normal mixture models fitted to univariate or multivariate data by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm. Two methods of estimation of the standard errors are considered: the standard information-based method and the computationally-intensive bootstrap method. They are compared empirically by their application to three real data sets and by a small-scale Monte Carlo experiment.

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We measured T-cell responses to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) cryptic epitopes encoded by regions of the viral genome not normally translated into viral proteins. T-cell responses to cryptic epitopes and to regions normally spliced out of the HIV-1 viral proteins Rev and Tat were detected in HIV-1-infected subjects.