A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions

Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing ‘equivalences’ among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show, as have previous authors, that the global warming potential (GWP), used in international law to compare emissions of greenhouse gases, is a special case of the global damage potential (GDP), assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiative forcing. Both the GWP and GDP follow naturally from a cost–benefit framing of the climate change issue. We show that the global temperature change potential (GTP) is a special case of the global cost potential (GCP), assuming a (slight) fall in the global temperature after the target is reached. We show how the four metrics should be generalized if there are intertemporal spillovers in abatement costs, distinguishing between private (e.g., capital stock turnover) and public (e.g., induced technological change) spillovers. Both the GTP and GCP follow naturally from a cost-effectiveness framing of the climate change issue. We also argue that if (1) damages are zero below a threshold and (2) infinitely large above a threshold, then cost-effectiveness analysis and cost–benefit analysis lead to identical results. Therefore, the GCP is a special case of the GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the GWP, a simplified cost–benefit concept. The UNFCCC is framed around the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. Once a stabilization target has been agreed under the convention, implementation is clearly a cost-effectiveness problem. It would therefore be more consistent to use the GCP or its simplification, the GTP.

A Precise Formulation of the Third Law of Thermodynamics

The third law of thermodynamics is formulated precisely: all points of the state space of zero temperature I""(0) are physically adiabatically inaccessible from the state space of a simple system. In addition to implying the unattainability of absolute zero in finite time (or ""by a finite number of operations""), it admits as corollary, under a continuity assumption, that all points of I""(0) are adiabatically equivalent. We argue that the third law is universally valid for all macroscopic systems which obey the laws of quantum mechanics and/or quantum field theory. We also briefly discuss why a precise formulation of the third law for black holes remains an open problem.

Density-Profile Processes Describing Biological Signaling Networks: Almost Sure Convergence to Deterministic Trajectories

We introduce jump processes in R(k), called density-profile processes, to model biological signaling networks. Our modeling setup describes the macroscopic evolution of a finite-size spin-flip model with k types of spins with arbitrary number of internal states interacting through a non-reversible stochastic dynamics. We are mostly interested on the multi-dimensional empirical-magnetization vector in the thermodynamic limit, and prove that, within arbitrary finite time-intervals, its path converges almost surely to a deterministic trajectory determined by a first-order (non-linear) differential equation with explicit bounds on the distance between the stochastic and deterministic trajectories. As parameters of the spin-flip dynamics change, the associated dynamical system may go through bifurcations, associated to phase transitions in the statistical mechanical setting. We present a simple example of spin-flip stochastic model, associated to a synthetic biology model known as repressilator, which leads to a dynamical system with Hopf and pitchfork bifurcations. Depending on the parameter values, the magnetization random path can either converge to a unique stable fixed point, converge to one of a pair of stable fixed points, or asymptotically evolve close to a deterministic orbit in Rk. We also discuss a simple signaling pathway related to cancer research, called p53 module.

Metastable Periodic Patterns in Singularly Perturbed Delayed Equations

We consider the scalar delayed differential equation epsilon(x) over dot(t) = -x(t) + f(x(t-1)), where epsilon > 0 and f verifies either df/dx > 0 or df/dx < 0 and some other conditions. We present theorems indicating that a generic initial condition with sign changes generates a solution with a transient time of order exp(c/epsilon), for some c > 0. We call it a metastable solution. During this transient a finite time span of the solution looks like that of a periodic function. It is remarkable that if df/dx > 0 then f must be odd or present some other very special symmetry in order to support metastable solutions, while this condition is absent in the case df/dx < 0. Explicit epsilon-asymptotics for the motion of zeroes of a solution and for the transient time regime are presented.

A new perspective on the PPP hypothesis

This paper the stastistical properties of the real exchange rates of G-5 countries for the Bretton-Woods peiod, and draw implications on the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. In contrast to most previous studies that consider only unit root and stationary process to describe the real exchange tae, this paper also considers two in-between processes, the locally persistent process ans the fractionally integrated process, to complement past studies. Seeking to be consistent with tha ample evidence of near unit in the real exchange rate movements very well. This finding implies that: 1) the real exchange movement is more persistent than the stationary case but less persistent than the unit root case; 2) the real exchange rate is non-stationary but the PPP reversion occurs and the PPP holds in the long run; 3) the real exchange rate does not exhibit the secular dependence of the fractional integration; 4) the real exchange rate evolves over time in a way that there is persistence over a range of time, but the effect of shocks will eventually disappear over time horizon longer than order O (nd), that is, at finite time horizon; 5) shocks dissipation is fasters than predicted by the fractional integracion, and the total sum of the effects of a unit innovation is finite, implying that a full PPP reversion occurs at finite horizons. These results may explain why pasrt empirical estudies could not provide a clear- conclusion on the real exchange rate processes and the PPP hypothesis.

A comment on "Rational learning lead to nash equilibrium" by professors Ehud Kalai and Ehud Lehrer

Kalai and Lebrer (93a, b) have recently show that for the case of infinitely repeated games, a coordination assumption on beliefs and optimal strategies ensures convergence to Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we show that for the case of repeated games with long (but finite) horizon, their condition does not imply approximate Nash equilibrium play. Recently Kalai and Lehrer (93a, b) proved that a coordination assumption on beliefs and optimal strategies, ensures that pIayers of an infinitely repeated game eventually pIay 'E-close" to an E-Nash equilibrium. Their coordination assumption requires that if players believes that certain set of outcomes have positive probability then it must be the case that this set of outcomes have, in fact, positive probability. This coordination assumption is called absolute continuity. For the case of finitely repeated games, the absolute continuity assumption is a quite innocuous assumption that just ensures that pIayers' can revise their priors by Bayes' Law. However, for the case of infinitely repeated games, the absolute continuity assumption is a stronger requirement because it also refers to events that can never be observed in finite time.

A teoria da ruína aplicada em um modelo de empresa financeira com risco de crédito

In this work we study a new risk model for a firm which is sensitive to its credit quality, proposed by Yang(2003): Are obtained recursive equations for finite time ruin probability and distribution of ruin time and Volterra type integral equation systems for ultimate ruin probability, severity of ruin and distribution of surplus before and after ruin

Expansion effects on back-to-back correlations

The back-to-back correlations (BBC) of particle-antiparticle pairs, signalling in-medium mass modification, are studied in a finite size thermalized medium. The width of BBC function is explicitly evaluated in the case of a nonrelativistic spherically symmetric expanding fireball. The effect of the flow is to reduce the BBC signal as compared to the case of non flow. Nevertheless, a significant signal survives finite-time emission plus expansion effects.

Incorporating memory effects in phase separation processes

We consider the modification of the Cahn-Hilliard equation when a time delay process through a memory function is taken into account. We then study the process of spinodal decomposition in fast phase transitions associated with a conserved order parameter. Finite-time memory effects are seen to affect the dynamics of phase transition at short times and have the effect of delaying, in a significant way, the process of rapid growth of the order parameter that follows a quench into the spinodal region. These effects are important in several systems characterized by fast processes, like non-equilibrium dynamics in the early universe and in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chaotic thermalization in Yang-Mills-Higgs theory on a spacial lattice

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Stickiness in a bouncer model: A slowing mechanism for Fermi acceleration

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The effects of anxiety on visual search, movement kinematics, and performance in table tennis: A test of Eysenck and Calvo's processing efficiency theory

Processing efficiency theory predicts that anxiety reduces the processing capacity of working memory and has detrimental effects on performance. When tasks place little demand on working memory, the negative effects of anxiety can be avoided by increasing effort. Although performance efficiency decreases, there is no change in performance effectiveness. When tasks impose a heavy demand on working memory, however, anxiety leads to decrements in efficiency and effectiveness. These presumptions were tested using a modified table tennis task that placed low (LWM) and high (HWM) demands on working memory. Cognitive anxiety was manipulated through a competitive ranking structure and prize money. Participants' accuracy in hitting concentric circle targets in predetermined sequences was taken as a measure of performance effectiveness, while probe reaction time (PRT), perceived mental effort (RSME), visual search data, and arm kinematics were recorded as measures of efficiency. Anxiety had a negative effect on performance effectiveness in both LWM and HWM tasks. There was an increase in frequency of gaze and in PRT and RSME values in both tasks under high vs. low anxiety conditions, implying decrements in performance efficiency. However, participants spent more time tracking the ball in the HWM task and employed a shorter tau margin when anxious. Although anxiety impaired performance effectiveness and efficiency, decrements in efficiency were more pronounced in the HWM task than in the LWM task, providing support for processing efficiency theory.

Shielding quantum discord through continuous dynamical decoupling

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Nonmodal energetics of resistive drift waves

The modal and nonmodal linear properties of the Hasegawa-Wakatani system are examined. This linear model for plasma drift waves is nonnormal in the sense of not having a complete set of orthogonal eigenvectors. A consequence of nonnormality is that finite-time nonmodal growth rates can be larger than modal growth rates. In this system, the nonmodal time-dependent behavior depends strongly on the adiabatic parameter and the time scale of interest. For small values of the adiabatic parameter and short time scales, the nonmodal growth rates, wave number, and phase shifts (between the density and potential fluctuations) are time dependent and differ from those obtained by normal mode analysis. On a given time scale, when the adiabatic parameter is less than a critical value, the drift waves are dominated by nonmodal effects while for values of the adiabatic parameter greater than the critical value, the behavior is that given by normal mode analysis. The critical adiabatic parameter decreases with time and modal behavior eventually dominates. The nonmodal linear properties of the Hasegawa-Wakatani system may help to explain features of the full system previously attributed to nonlinearity.

Global optimization approach for the H2-norm model reduction problem

A branch and bound algorithm is proposed to solve the H2-norm model reduction problem for continuous-time linear systems, with conditions assuring convergence to the global optimum in finite time. The lower and upper bounds used in the optimization procedure are obtained through Linear Matrix Inequalities formulations. Examples illustrate the results.