Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Multiresponse Robust Engineering: Case with Errors in Factor Levels

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62J05, 62J10, 62F35, 62H12, 62P30.

A retrospective study examining the nature, contributory factors and predictors of dispensing errors in community pharmacy

Introduction: Since 2005, the workload of community pharmacists in England has increased with a concomitant increase in stress and work pressure. However, it is unclear how these factors are impacting on the ability of community pharmacists to ensure accuracy during the dispensing process. This research seeks to extend our understanding of the nature, outcome, and predictors of dispensing errors. Methodology: A retrospective analysis of a purposive sample of incident report forms (IRFs) from the database of a pharmacist indemnity insurance provider was conducted. Data collected included; type of error, degree of harm caused, pharmacy and pharmacist demographics, and possible contributory factors. Results: In total, 339 files from UK community pharmacies were retrieved from the database. The files dated from June 2006 to November 2011. Incorrect item (45.1%, n = 153/339) followed by incorrect strength (24.5%, n = 83/339) were the most common forms of error. Almost half (41.6%, n = 147/339) of the patients suffered some form of harm ranging from minor harm (26.7%, n = 87/339) to death (0.3%, n = 1/339). Insufficient staff (51.6%, n = 175/339), similar packaging (40.7%, n = 138/339) and the pharmacy being busier than normal (39.5%, n = 134/339) were identified as key contributory factors. Cross-tabular analysis against the final accuracy check variable revealed significant association between the pharmacy location (P < 0.024), dispensary layout (P < 0.025), insufficient staff (P < 0.019), and busier than normal (P < 0.005) variables. Conclusion: The results provide an overview of some of the individual, organisational and technical factors at play at the time of a dispensing error and highlight the need to examine further the relationships between these factors and dispensing error occurrence.

Bay 41-2272, A Soluble Guanylate Cyclase Stimulator, Relaxes Isolated Human Ureter In A Standardized In Vitro Model.

To characterize the relaxation induced by BAY 41-2272 in human ureteral segments. Ureter specimens (n = 17) from multiple organ human deceased donors (mean age 40 ± 3.2 years, male/female ratio 2:1) were used to characterize the relaxing response of BAY 41-2272. Immunohistochemical analysis for endothelial and neuronal nitric oxide synthase, guanylate cyclase stimulator (sGC) and type 5 phosphodiesterase was also performed. The potency values were determined as the negative log of the molar to produce 50% of the maximal relaxation in potassium chloride-precontracted specimens. The unpaired Student t test was used for the comparisons. Immunohistochemistry revealed the presence of endothelial nitric oxide synthase in vessel endothelia and neuronal nitric oxide synthase in urothelium and nerve structures. sGC was expressed in the smooth muscle and urothelium layer, and type 5 phosphodiesterase was present in the smooth muscle only. BAY 41-2272 (0.001-100 μM) relaxed the isolated ureter in a concentration dependent manner, with a potency and maximal relaxation value of 5.82 ± 0.14 and 84% ± 5%, respectively. The addition of nitric oxide synthase and sGC inhibitors reduced the maximal relaxation values by 21% and 45%, respectively. However, the presence of sildenafil (100 nM) significantly potentiated (6.47 ± 0.10, P <.05) this response. Neither glibenclamide or tetraethylammonium nor ureteral urothelium removal influenced the relaxation response by BAY 41-2272. BAY 41-2272 relaxes the human isolated ureter in a concentration-dependent manner, mainly by activating the sGC enzyme in smooth muscle cells rather than in the urothelium, although a cyclic guanosine monophosphate-independent mechanism might have a role. The potassium channels do not seem to be involved.

Exercise Increases Pancreatic β-cell Viability In A Model Of Type 1 Diabetes Through Il-6 Signaling.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is provoked by an autoimmune assault against pancreatic β cells. Exercise training enhances β-cell mass in T1D. Here, we investigated how exercise signals β cells in T1D condition. For this, we used several approaches. Wild-type and IL-6 knockout (KO) C57BL/6 mice were exercised. Afterward, islets from control and trained mice were exposed to inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β plus IFN-γ). Islets from control mice and β-cell lines (INS-1E and MIN6) were incubated with serum from control or trained mice or medium obtained from 5-aminoimidazole-4 carboxamide1-β-d-ribofuranoside (AICAR)-treated C2C12 skeletal muscle cells. Subsequently, islets and β cells were exposed to IL-1β plus IFN-γ. Proteins were assessed by immunoblotting, apoptosis was determined by DNA-binding dye propidium iodide fluorescence, and NO(•) was estimated by nitrite. Exercise reduced 25, 75, and 50% of the IL-1β plus IFN-γ-induced iNOS, nitrite, and cleaved caspase-3 content, respectively, in pancreatic islets. Serum from trained mice and medium from AICAR-treated C2C12 cells reduced β-cell death, induced by IL-1β plus IFN-γ treatment, in 15 and 38%, respectively. This effect was lost in samples treated with IL-6 inhibitor or with serum from exercised IL-6 KO mice. In conclusion, muscle contraction signals β-cell survival in T1D through IL-6.-Paula, F. M. M., Leite, N. C., Vanzela, E. C., Kurauti, M. A., Freitas-Dias, R., Carneiro, E. M., Boschero, A. C., and Zoppi, C. C. Exercise increases pancreatic β-cell viability in a model of type 1 diabetes through IL-6 signaling.

Enhanced Glucose-induced Intracellular Signaling Promotes Insulin Hypersecretion: Pancreatic Beta-cell Functional Adaptations In A Model Of Genetic Obesity And Prediabetes.

Obesity is associated with insulin resistance and is known to be a risk factor for type-2 diabetes. In obese individuals, pancreatic beta-cells try to compensate for the increased insulin demand in order to maintain euglycemia. Most studies have reported that this adaptation is due to morphological changes. However, the involvement of beta-cell functional adaptations in this process needs to be clarified. For this purpose, we evaluated different key steps in the glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS) in intact islets from female ob/ob obese mice and lean controls. Obese mice showed increased body weight, insulin resistance, hyperinsulinemia, glucose intolerance and fed hyperglycemia. Islets from ob/ob mice exhibited increased glucose-induced mitochondrial activity, reflected by enhanced NAD(P)H production and mitochondrial membrane potential hyperpolarization. Perforated patch-clamp examination of beta-cells within intact islets revealed several alterations in the electrical activity such as increased firing frequency and higher sensitivity to low glucose concentrations. A higher intracellular Ca(2+) mobilization in response to glucose was also found in ob/ob islets. Additionally, they displayed a change in the oscillatory pattern and Ca(2+) signals at low glucose levels. Capacitance experiments in intact islets revealed increased exocytosis in individual ob/ob beta-cells. All these up-regulated processes led to increased GSIS. In contrast, we found a lack of beta-cell Ca(2+) signal coupling, which could be a manifestation of early defects that lead to beta-cell malfunction in the progression to diabetes. These findings indicate that beta-cell functional adaptations are an important process in the compensatory response to obesity.

Evaluation of the role of environmental factors in the human gastrointestinal tract on the behaviour of probiotic cultures of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01 by the use of a semi-dynamic in vitro model

This study evaluated the influence of gastrointestinal environmental factors (pH, digestive enzymes, food components, medicaments) on the survival of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01, using a semi-dynamic in vitro model that simulates the transit of microorganisms through the human GIT. The strains were first exposed to different simulated gastric juices for different periods of time (0, 30, 60 and 120 min), and then to simulated intestinal fluids for zero, 120, 180 and 240 min, in a step-wise format. The number of viable cells was determined after each step. The influence of food residues (skim milk) in the fluids and resistance to medicaments commonly used for varied therapeutic purposes (analgesics, antiarrhythmics, antibiotics, antihistaminics, proton pump inhibitors, etc.) were also evaluated. Results indicated that survival of both cultures was pH and time dependent, and digestive enzymes had little influence. Milk components presented a protective effect, and medicaments, especially anti-inflammatory drugs, influenced markedly the viability of the probiotic cultures, indicating that the beneficial effects of the two probiotic cultures to health are dependent of environmental factors encountered in the human gastrointestinal tract.

Study of lymphocyte subpopulations in bone marrow in a model of protein-energy malnutrition

Objective: Protein-energy malnutrition (PEM) is an important public health problem affecting millions of people worldwide. Hematopoietic tissue requires a high nutrient supply, and a reduction in leukocytes, especially lymphocytes, suggests that some nutritional deficiencies might be altering bone marrow function and decreasing its ability to produce lymphocytes. In this study, we evaluated the effect that PEM has on lymphocyte subtypes and the cell cycle of CD5(+) cells. Methods: Swiss mice were subjected to PEM using a low-protein diet containing 4% protein. When the experimental group had lost about 20% of their original body weight, we collected blood and bone marrow cells and evaluated the hemogram, the myelogram, bone marrow lymphoid markers using flow cytometry, and the cell cycle in CD5(+) bone marrow. Results: Malnourished animals presented anemia, reticulocytopenia, and leukopenia with lymphopenia. The bone marrow was hypocellular, and flow cytometric analyses of bone marrow cells showed cells that were CD45(+) (91.2%), CD2(+) (84.9%), CD5(+) (37.3%), CD3(+) (23.5%), CD19(+) (43.3%), CD22(+) (34.7%), CD19(+)/CD2(+) (51.2%), CD19(+)/CD3(+)(24.0%), CD19(+)/CD5(+) (13.2%), CD22(+)/CD2(+) (40.1%), CD22(+)/CD3(+) (30.3%), and CD22(+)/CD5(+) (1.1%) in malnourished animals and CD45(+) (97.5%), CD2(+) (42.9%), CD5(+) (91.5%), CD3(+) (92.0%), CD19(+) (52.0%), CD22(+) (75.6%), CD19(+)/CD2(+) (62.0%), CD19(+)/CD3(+) (55.4%), CD19(+)/CO5(+) (6.7%), CD22(+)/CD2(+) (70.3%), CD22(+)/CD3(+) (55.9%), and CD22(+)/ CD5(+) (8.4%) in control animals. Malnourished animals also presented more CD5(+) cells in the G0 phase of cell cycle development. Conclusion: Malnourished animals presented bone marrow hypoplasia, maturation interruption, prominent lymphopenia with depletion in the lymphoid lineage, and changes in cellular development. We suggest that these changes are some of the primary causes of lymphopenia in cases of PEM and partly explain the increase in susceptibility to infections found in malnourished individuals. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Use of Carnobacterium maltaromaticum cultures and hydroalcoholic extract of Lippia sidoides Cham. against Listeria monocytogenes in fish model systems

Minimally processed refrigerated ready-to-eat fishes may offer health risk of severe infection to susceptible individuals due to contamination by the psychrotolerant bacterium L monocytogenes. In this work, inhibition of L monocytogenes by a plant extract and lactic acid bacteria (IAB) was studied in model fish systems kept at 5 degrees C for 35 days. For that, fillets of tropical fish ""surubim"" (Pseudoplatystoma sp.) and hydroalcoholic extract of the plant Lippia sidoides Cham. (""alecrim pimenta"") were used. Fish peptone broth (FPB), ""surubim"" broth and ""surubim"" homogenate were inoculated with combinations of L monocytogenes and bacteriocin-producing Carnobacterium maltaromaticum (C2 and A9b(+)) and non bacteriocin-producing C. maltaromaticum (A9b(-)), in the presence or absence of extract of ""alecrim pimenta"" (EAP). In all model systems, monocultures of L monocytogenes and carnobacteria reached final populations >= 10(8) CFU/ml after 35 days, except for L monocytogenes in ""surubim"" homogenate (10(4) CFU/ml). In FPB, EAP alone and combined with cultures of LAB inhibited L monocytogenes but carnobacteria without EAP were only weakly antilisterial. In ""surubim"" broth, EAP alone did not prevent L monocytogenes growth but cultures of carnobacteria combined or not with EAP inhibited L monocytogenes, with more pronounced effect being observed for C maltaromaticum C2, which produced bacteriocin. In ""surubim"" homogenate, EAP alone and combined with cultures of C. maltaromaticum A9b(-) and A9b(+) were strongly inhibitory to L monocytogenes, while C maltaromaticum C2 with EAP caused transient inhibition of L monocytogenes. No significant inhibition of L monocytogenes was observed for carnobacteria in ""surubim"" homogenate without EAP. In conclusion, it was observed that the use of EAP and cultures of carnobacteria have potential to inhibit L monocytogenes in fish systems and the applications should be carefully studied, considering the influence of food matrix. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Excised Porcine Cornea Integrity Evaluation in an in vitro Model of Iontophoretic Ocular Research

Background/Aims: It is a challenge to adapt traditional in vitro diffusion experiments to ocular tissue. Thus, the aim of this work was to present experimental evidence on the integrity of the porcine cornea, barrier function and maintenance of electrical properties for 6 h of experiment when the tissue is mounted on an inexpensive and easy-to-use in vitro model for ocular iontophoresis. Methods: A modified Franz diffusion cell containing two ports for the insertion of the electrodes and a receiving compartment that does not need gassing with carbogen was used in the studies. Corneal electron transmission microscopy images were obtained, and diffusion experiments with fluorescent markers were performed to examine the integrity of the barrier function. The preservation of the negatively charged corneal epithelium was verified by the determination of the electro-osmotic flow of a hydrophilic and non-ionized molecule. Results: The diffusion cell was able to maintain the temperature, homogenization, porcine epithelial corneal structure integrity, barrier function and electrical characteristics throughout the 6 h of permeation experiment, without requiring CO(2) gassing when the receiving chamber was filled with 25 m M of HEPES buffer solution. Conclusion: The system described here is inexpensive, easy to handle and reliable as an in vitro model for iontophoretic ocular delivery studies. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Potential errors in the application of mixture theory to multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis

Potential errors in the application of mixture theory to the analysis of multiple-frequency bioelectrical impedance data for the determination of body fluid volumes are assessed. Potential sources of error include: conductive length; tissue fluid resistivity; body density; weight and technical errors of measurement. Inclusion of inaccurate estimates of body density and weight introduce errors of typically < +/-3% but incorrect assumptions regarding conductive length or fluid resistivities may each incur errors of up to 20%.

Errors in lamina growth of primary olfactory axons in the rat and mouse olfactory bulb

In the adult olfactory nerve pathway of rodents, each primary olfactory axon forms a terminal arbor in a single glomerulus in the olfactory bulb. During development, axons are believed to project directly to and terminate precisely within a glomerulus without any exuberant growth or mistargeting. To gain insight into mechanisms underlying this process, the trajectories of primary olfactory axons during glomerular formation were studied in the neonatal period. Histochemical staining of mouse olfactory bulb sections with the lectin Dolichos biflorus-agglutinin revealed that many olfactory axons overshoot the glomerular layer and course into the deeper laminae of the bulb in the early postnatal period. Single primary olfactory axons were anterogradely labelled either with the lipophilic carbocyanine dye, 1,1'-dioctodecyl-3,3,3',3'-tetramethylindocarbocyanine perchlorate (DiI), or with horseradish peroxidase (HRP) by localized microinjections into the nerve fiber layer of the rat olfactory bulb. Five distinct trajectories of primary olfactory axons were observed in DLI-labelled preparations at postnatal day 1.5 (P1.5). Axons either coursed directly to and terminated specifically within a glomerulus, branched before terminating in a glomerulus, bypassed glomeruli and entered the underlying external plexiform layer, passed through the glomerular layer with side branches into glomeruli, or branched into more than one glomerulus. HRP-labelled axon arbors from eight postnatal ages were reconstructed by camera lucida and were used to determine arbor length, arbor area, and arbor branch number. Whereas primary olfactory axons display errors in laminar targeting in the mammalian olfactory bulb, axon arbors typically achieve their adult morphology without exuberant growth. Many olfactory axons appear not to recognize appropriate cues to terminate within the glomerular layer during the early postnatal period. However, primary olfactory axons exhibit precise targeting in the glomerular layer after P5.5, indicating temporal differences in either the presence of guidance cues or the ability of axons to respond to these cues. (C) 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A cyclic peptide, C5a receptor antagonist analogue confers increased potency in a model of inflammatory bowel disease in rats

No abstract

A Comparison Between Pulse Pressure Variation and Right End Diastolic Volume Index as Guides to Resuscitation in a Model of Hemorrhagic Shock in Pigs

Background: Different hemodynamic parameters including static indicators of cardiac preload as right ventricular end-diastolic volume index (RVEDVI) and dynamic parameters as pulse pressure variation (PPV) have been used in the decision-making process regarding volume expansion in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to compare fluid resuscitation guided by either PPV or RVEDVI after experimentally induced hemorrhagic shock. Methods: Twenty-six anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were allocated into control (group I), PPV (group II), or RVEDVI (group III) group. Hemorrhagic shock was induced by blood withdrawal to target mean arterial pressure of 40 mm Hg, maintained for 60 minutes. Parameters were measured at baseline, time of shock, 60 minutes after shock, immediately after resuscitation with hydroxyethyl starch 6% (130/0.4), 1 hour and 2 hours thereafter. The endpoint of fluid resuscitation was determined as the baseline values of PPV and RVEDVI. Statistical analysis of data was based on analysis of variance for repeated measures followed by the Bonferroni test (p < 0.05). Results: Volume and time to resuscitation were higher in group III than in group II (group III = 1,305 +/- 331 mL and group II = 965 +/- 245 mL, p < 0.05; and group III = 24.8 +/- 4.7 minutes and group II = 8.8 +/- 1.3 minutes, p < 0.05, respectively). All static and dynamic parameters and biomarkers of tissue oxygenation were affected by hemorrhagic shock and nearly all parameters were restored after resuscitation in both groups. Conclusion: In the proposed model of hemorrhagic shock, resuscitation to the established endpoints was achieved within a smaller amount of time and with less volume when guided by PPV than when guided by pulmonary artery catheter-derived RVEDVI.

Physical Training Leads to Remodeling of Diaphragm Muscle in Asthma Model

Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are crucial to the development and maintenance of healthy tissue and are mainly involved in extracellular matrix (ECM) remodeling of skeletal muscle. This study evaluated the effects of chronic allergic airway inflammation (CAAI), induced by ovalbumin, and aerobic training in the MMPs activity in mouse diaphragm muscle. Thirty mice were divided into 6 groups: 1) control; 2) ovalbumin; 3) treadmill trained at 50% of maximum speed; 4) ovalbumin and trained at 50%; 5) trained at 75%; 6) ovalbumin and trained at 75%. CAAI did not after MMPs activities in diaphragm muscle. Nevertheless, both treadmill aerobic trainings, associated with CAAI increased the MMP-2 and -1 activities. Furthermore, MMP-9 was not detected in any group. Together, these findings suggest an ECM remodeling in diaphragm muscle of asthmatic mice submitted to physical training. This result may be useful for a better understanding of functional significance of changes in the MMPs activity in response to physical training in asthma.