902 resultados para errors-in-variables model
Groundwater flow model of the Logan river alluvial aquifer system Josephville, South East Queensland
Resumo:
The study focuses on an alluvial plain situated within a large meander of the Logan River at Josephville near Beaudesert which supports a factory that processes gelatine. The plant draws water from on site bores, as well as the Logan River, for its production processes and produces approximately 1.5 ML per day (Douglas Partners, 2004) of waste water containing high levels of dissolved ions. At present a series of treatment ponds are used to aerate the waste water reducing the level of organic matter; the water is then used to irrigate grazing land around the site. Within the study the hydrogeology is investigated, a conceptual groundwater model is produced and a numerical groundwater flow model is developed from this. On the site are several bores that access groundwater, plus a network of monitoring bores. Assessment of drilling logs shows the area is formed from a mixture of poorly sorted Quaternary alluvial sediments with a laterally continuous aquifer comprised of coarse sands and fine gravels that is in contact with the river. This aquifer occurs at a depth of between 11 and 15 metres and is overlain by a heterogeneous mixture of silts, sands and clays. The study investigates the degree of interaction between the river and the groundwater within the fluvially derived sediments for reasons of both environmental monitoring and sustainability of the potential local groundwater resource. A conceptual hydrogeological model of the site proposes two hydrostratigraphic units, a basal aquifer of coarse-grained materials overlain by a thick semi-confining unit of finer materials. From this, a two-layer groundwater flow model and hydraulic conductivity distribution was developed based on bore monitoring and rainfall data using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and PEST (Doherty, 2004) based on GMS 6.5 software (EMSI, 2008). A second model was also considered with the alluvium represented as a single hydrogeological unit. Both models were calibrated to steady state conditions and sensitivity analyses of the parameters has demonstrated that both models are very stable for changes in the range of ± 10% for all parameters and still reasonably stable for changes up to ± 20% with RMS errors in the model always less that 10%. The preferred two-layer model was found to give the more realistic representation of the site, where water level variations and the numerical modeling showed that the basal layer of coarse sands and fine gravels is hydraulically connected to the river and the upper layer comprising a poorly sorted mixture of silt-rich clays and sands of very low permeability limits infiltration from the surface to the lower layer. The paucity of historical data has limited the numerical modelling to a steady state one based on groundwater levels during a drought period and forecasts for varying hydrological conditions (e.g. short term as well as prolonged dry and wet conditions) cannot reasonably be made from such a model. If future modelling is to be undertaken it is necessary to establish a regular program of groundwater monitoring and maintain a long term database of water levels to enable a transient model to be developed at a later stage. This will require a valid monitoring network to be designed with additional bores required for adequate coverage of the hydrogeological conditions at the Josephville site. Further investigations would also be enhanced by undertaking pump testing to investigate hydrogeological properties in the aquifer.
Resumo:
Ultraviolet radiation (UV) is the carcinogen that causes the most common malignancy in humans – skin cancer. However, moderate UV exposure is essential for producing vitaminDin our skin. VitaminDincreases the absorption of calcium from the diet, and adequate calcium is necessary for the building and maintenance of bones. Thus, low levels of vitamin D can cause osteomalacia and rickets and contribute to osteoporosis. Emerging evidence also suggests vitamin D may protect against falls, internal cancers, psychiatric conditions, autoimmune diseases and cardiovascular diseases. Since the dominant source of vitamin D is sunlight exposure, there is a need to understand what is a “balanced” level of sun exposure to maintain an adequate level of vitamin D but minimise the risks of eye damage, skin damage and skin cancer resulting from excessive UV exposure. There are many steps in the pathway from incoming solar UV to the eventual vitamin D status of humans (measured as 25-hydroxyvitamin D in the blood), and our knowledge about many of these steps is currently incomplete. This project begins by investigating the levels of UV available for synthesising vitamin D, and how these levels vary across seasons, latitudes and times of the day. The thesis then covers experiments conducted with an in vitro model, which was developed to study several aspects of vitamin D synthesis. Results from the model suggest the relationship between UV dose and vitamin D is not linear. This is an important input into public health messages regarding ‘safe’ UV exposure: larger doses of UV, beyond a certain limit, may not continue to produce vitamin D; however, they will increase the risk of skin cancers and eye damage. The model also showed that, when given identical doses of UV, the amount of vitamin D produced was impacted by temperature. In humans, a temperature-dependent reaction must occur in the top layers of human skin, prior to vitamin D entering the bloodstream. The hypothesis will be raised that cooler temperatures (occurring in winter and at high latitudes) may reduce vitamin D production in humans. Finally, the model has also been used to study the wavelengths of UV thought to be responsible for producing vitamin D. It appears that vitamin D production is limited to a small range of UV wavelengths, which may be narrower than previously thought. Together, these results suggest that further research is needed into the ability of humans to synthesise vitamin D from sunlight. In particular, more information is needed about the dose-response relationship in humans and to investigate the proposed impact of temperature. Having an accurate action spectrum will also be essential for measuring the available levels of vitamin D-effective UV. As this research continues, it will contribute to the scientific evidence-base needed for devising a public health message that will balance the risks of excessive UV exposure with maintaining adequate vitamin D.
Resumo:
Cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions play a major role in tumor morphogenesis and cancer metastasis. Therefore, it is crucial to create a model with a biomimetic microenvironment that allows such interactions to fully represent the pathophysiology of a disease for an in vitro study. This is achievable by using three-dimensional (3D) models instead of conventional two-dimensional (2D) cultures with the aid of tissue engineering technology. We are now able to better address the complex intercellular interactions underlying prostate cancer (CaP) bone metastasis through such models. In this study, we assessed the interaction of CaP cells and human osteoblasts (hOBs) within a tissue engineered bone (TEB) construct. Consistent with other in vivo studies, our findings show that intercellular and CaP cell-bone matrix interactions lead to elevated levels of matrix metalloproteinases, steroidogenic enzymes and the CaP biomarker, prostate specific antigen (PSA); all associated with CaP metastasis. Hence, it highlights the physiological relevance of this model. We believe that this model will provide new insights for understanding of the previously poorly understood molecular mechanisms of bone metastasis, which will foster further translational studies, and ultimately offer a potential tool for drug screening. © 2010 Landes Bioscience.
Resumo:
Objective: Older driver research has mostly focused on identifying that small proportion of older drivers who are unsafe. Little is known about how normal cognitive changes in aging affect driving in the wider population of adults who drive regularly. We evaluated the association of cognitive function and age, with driving errors. Method: A sample of 266 drivers aged 70 to 88 years were assessed on abilities that decline in normal aging (visual attention, processing speed, inhibition, reaction time, task switching) and the UFOV® which is a validated screening instrument for older drivers. Participants completed an on-road driving test. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the associations of cognitive factor with specific driving errors and number of errors in self-directed and instructor navigated conditions. Results: All errors types increased with chronological age. Reaction time was not associated with driving errors in multivariate analyses. A cognitive factor measuring Speeded Selective Attention and Switching was uniquely associated with the most errors types. The UFOV predicted blindspot errors and errors on dual carriageways. After adjusting for age, education and gender the cognitive factors explained 7% of variance in the total number of errors in the instructor navigated condition and 4% of variance in the self-navigated condition. Conclusion: We conclude that among older drivers errors increase with age and are associated with speeded selective attention particularly when that requires attending to the stimuli in the periphery of the visual field, task switching, errors inhibiting responses and visual discrimination. These abilities should be the target of cognitive training.
Resumo:
Approximate clone detection is the process of identifying similar process fragments in business process model collections. The tool presented in this paper can efficiently cluster approximate clones in large process model repositories. Once a repository is clustered, users can filter and browse the clusters using different filtering parameters. Our tool can also visualize clusters in the 2D space, allowing a better understanding of clusters and their member fragments. This demonstration will be useful for researchers and practitioners working on large process model repositories, where process standardization is a critical task for increasing the consistency and reducing the complexity of the repository.
Resumo:
Reporting of medication administration errors (MAEs) is one means by which health care facilities monitor their practice in an attempt to maintain the safest patient environment. This study examined the likelihood of registered nurses (RNs) reporting MAEs when working in Saudi Arabia. It also attempted to identify potential barriers in the reporting of MAE. This study found that 63% of RNs raised concerns about reporting of MAEs in Saudi Arabia—nursing administration was the largest impediment affecting nurses' willingness to report MAEs. Changing attitude to a non-blame system and implementation of anonymous reporting systems may encourage a greater reporting of MAEs.
Resumo:
Suggests an alternative and computationally simpler approach of non-random sampling of labour economics and represents an observed outcome of an individual female′s choice of whether or not to participate in the labour market. Concludes that there is an alternative to the Heckman two-step estimator.
Resumo:
We have previously reported a preliminary taxonomy of patient error. However, approaches to managing patients' contribution to error have received little attention in the literature. This paper aims to assess how patients and primary care professionals perceive the relative importance of different patient errors as a threat to patient safety. It also attempts to suggest what these groups believe may be done to reduce the errors, and how. It addresses these aims through original research that extends the nominal group analysis used to generate the error taxonomy. Interviews were conducted with 11 purposively selected groups of patients and primary care professionals in Auckland, New Zealand, during late 2007. The total number of participants was 83, including 64 patients. Each group ranked the importance of possible patient errors identified through the nominal group exercise. Approaches to managing the most important errors were then discussed. There was considerable variation among the groups in the importance rankings of the errors. Our general inductive analysis of participants' suggestions revealed the content of four inter-related actions to manage patient error: Grow relationships; Enable patients and professionals to recognise and manage patient error; be Responsive to their shared capacity for change; and Motivate them to act together for patient safety. Cultivation of this GERM of safe care was suggested to benefit from 'individualised community care'. In this approach, primary care professionals individualise, in community spaces, population health messages about patient safety events. This approach may help to reduce patient error and the tension between personal and population health-care.