Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.

Analysis of the geometric altimetry to support aircraft optimal trajectories within the future 4d trajectory management

Over the past few years, the common practice within air traffic management has been that commercial aircraft fly by following a set of predefined routes to reach their destination. Currently, aircraft operators are requesting more flexibility to fly according to their prefer- ences, in order to achieve their business objectives. Due to this reason, much research effort is being invested in developing different techniques which evaluate aircraft optimal trajectory and traffic synchronisation. Also, the inefficient use of the airspace using barometric altitude overall in the landing and takeoff phases or in Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) trajectories where currently it is necessary introduce the necessary reference setting (QNH or QFE). To solve this problem and to permit a better airspace management born the interest of this research. Where the main goals will be to evaluate the impact, weakness and strength of the use of geometrical altitude instead of the use of barometric altitude. Moreover, this dissertation propose the design a simplified trajectory simulator which is able to predict aircraft trajectories. The model is based on a three degrees of freedom aircraft point mass model that can adapt aircraft performance data from Base of Aircraft Data, and meteorological information. A feature of this trajectory simulator is to support the improvement of the strategic and pre-tactical trajectory planning in the future Air Traffic Management. To this end, the error of the tool (aircraft Trajectory Simulator) is measured by comparing its performance variables with actual flown trajectories obtained from Flight Data Recorder information. The trajectory simulator is validated by analysing the performance of different type of aircraft and considering different routes. A fuel consumption estimation error was identified and a correction is proposed for each type of aircraft model. In the future Air Traffic Management (ATM) system, the trajectory becomes the fundamental element of a new set of operating procedures collectively referred to as Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO). Thus, governmental institutions, academia, and industry have shown a renewed interest for the application of trajectory optimisation techniques in com- mercial aviation. The trajectory optimisation problem can be solved using optimal control methods. In this research we present and discuss the existing methods for solving optimal control problems focusing on direct collocation, which has received recent attention by the scientific community. In particular, two families of collocation methods are analysed, i.e., Hermite-Legendre-Gauss-Lobatto collocation and the pseudospectral collocation. They are first compared based on a benchmark case study: the minimum fuel trajectory problem with fixed arrival time. For the sake of scalability to more realistic problems, the different meth- ods are also tested based on a real Airbus 319 El Cairo-Madrid flight. Results show that pseudospectral collocation, which has shown to be numerically more accurate and computa- tionally much faster, is suitable for the type of problems arising in trajectory optimisation with application to ATM. Fast and accurate optimal trajectory can contribute properly to achieve the new challenges of the future ATM. As atmosphere uncertainties are one of the most important issues in the trajectory plan- ning, the final objective of this dissertation is to have a magnitude order of how different is the fuel consumption under different atmosphere condition. Is important to note that in the strategic phase planning the optimal trajectories are determined by meteorological predictions which differ from the moment of the flight. The optimal trajectories have shown savings of at least 500 [kg] in the majority of the atmosphere condition (different pressure, and temperature at Mean Sea Level, and different lapse rate temperature) with respect to the conventional procedure simulated at the same atmosphere condition.This results show that the implementation of optimal profiles are beneficial under the current Air traffic Management (ATM).

Urban Archaeology in Madrid. Experiences and Opportunities to Understand Historical City

In 2015, it will be thirty years since Spanish Historic Heritage Law from 1985 was approved. The results after three decades under this law are necessarily positive and witness how the complex autonomous regional legislation has been promoted, guided and organized in this Heritage field. In addition, the law enforcement has brought into the scene how the numerous public and private initiatives involved in caring, managing, protecting and restoring our cultural heritage have been channeled and regulated, as well as monitoring the impact these initiatives produce on urban archaeology. During this long period of Spanish recent history, cultural heritage -understood as an important development tool, especially when related to cultural tourism- has succeeded in channeling resources for developing the historical research projects, both documental and archaeological, that the Spanish monumental urban ensembles were requiring. In this context, the case of the city of Madrid is a clear example of the significant development that urban Historical Archaeology has experienced in Spain over the last thirty years, especially when dealing with the study of the Middle Ages (8th to 15th centuries) and the Modern Age (16th to 18th centuries). Given the number of interventions and the important results obtained by many of them, Madrid urban archaeology is an extraordinary example of the consequences of implementing new management models, changing criteria and operating procedures, and also, of course, of the conflicts and debates raised regarding heritage, as well as the importance these interventions have implied, which is the main aim of this work.

The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank (2002-2015). CEPS Special Report No. 109/May 2015

This paper examines the policies pursued by the European Central Bank (ECB) since the inception of the euro. The ECB was originally set up to pursue price stability, with an eye also to economic growth and financial stability as subsidiary goals, once the primary goal was secured. The application of a single monetary policy to a diverse economic area has entailed a pronounced pro-cyclicality in its real economic effects on the eurozone periphery. Later, monetary policy became the main policy instrument to tackle financial instability elicited by the failure of Lehman Brothers and the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone. In the process, the ECB emerged as the lender of last resort in the sovereign debt markets of participating countries. Persistent economic depression and deflation eventually brought the ECB into the uncharted waters of unconventional policies. That the ECB could legally perform all of these tasks bears witness to the flexibility of the TFEU and its Statute, but its tools and operating procedures were stretched to their limit. In the end, the place of the ECB amongst EU policy-making institutions has been greatly enhanced, but has entailed repeated intrusions into the broader domain of economic policies – not least because of its market intervention policies – whose consequences have yet to be ascertained.

The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank (2002-2015). Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings (BEEP) 35/2015.

This paper examines the policies pursued by the European Central Bank (ECB) since the inception of the euro. The ECB was originally set up to pursue price stability, with an eye also to economic growth and financial stability as subsidiary goals, once the primary goal was secured. The application of a single monetary policy to a diverse economic area has entailed a pronounced pro-cyclicality in its real economic effects on the eurozone periphery. Later, monetary policy became the main policy instrument to tackle financial instability elicited by the failure of Lehman Brothers and the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone. In the process, the ECB emerged as the lender of last resort in the sovereign debt markets of participating countries. Persistent economic depression and deflation eventually brought the ECB into the uncharted waters of unconventional policies. That the ECB could legally perform all of these tasks bears witness to the flexibility of the TFEU and its Statute, but its tools and operating procedures were stretched to their limit. In the end, the place of the ECB amongst EU policy-making institutions has been greatly enhanced, but has entailed repeated intrusions into the broader domain of economic policies – not least because of its market intervention policies – whose consequences have yet to be ascertained.

Standard correspondence filing system handbook.

Kept-up-to-date by replacement pages.

Manual of services /

"February 2006."

The design of a high pressure solvent extraction process using liquid ammonia as solvent

The literature on the potential use of liquid ammonia as a solvent for the extraction of aromatic hydrocarbons from mixtures with paraffins, and the application of reflux, has been reviewed. Reference is made to extractors suited to this application. A pilot scale extraction plant was designed comprising a Scm. diameter by 12Scm. high, 50 stage Rotating Disc Contactor with 2 external settlers. Provision was made for operation with, or without, reflux at a pressure of 10 bar and ambient temperature. The solvent recovery unit consisted of an evaporator, compressor and condenser in a refrigeration cycle. Two systems were selected for study, Cumene-n-Heptane-Ammonia and Toluene-Methylcyclohexane-Ammonia. Equlibrium data for the first system was determined experimentally in a specially-designed, equilibrium bomb. A technique was developed to withdraw samples under pressure for analysis by chromatography and titration. The extraction plant was commissioned with a kerosine-water system; detailed operating procedures were developed based on a Hazard and Operability Study. Experimental runs were carried out with both ternary ammonia systems. With the system Toluene-Methylcyclohexane-Ammonia the extraction plant and the solvent recovery facility, operated satisfactorily, and safely,in accordance with the operating procedures. Experimental data gave reasonable agreement with theory. Recommendations are made for further work with plant.

The steam reforming of hydrocarbons with special reference to methane

From an examination of the literature relating to the catalytic steam reforming of hydrocarbons, it is concluded that the kinetics of high pressure reforming, particularly steam-methane reforming, has received relatively little attention. Therefore because of the increasing availability of natural gas in the U.K., this system was considered worthy of investigation. An examination of the thermodynamics relating to the equilibria of steam-hydrocarbon reforming is described. The reactions most likely to have influence over the process are established and from these a computer program was written to calculate equilibrium compositions. A means of presenting such data in a graphica1 form for ranges of the operating variables is given, and also an operating chart which may be used to quickly check feed ratios employed on a working naphtha reforming plant is presented. For the experimental kinetic study of the steam-methane system, cylindrical pellets of ICI 46-1 nickel catalyst were used in the form of a rod catalyst. The reactor was of the integral type and a description is given with the operating procedures and analytical method used. The experimental work was divided into two parts, qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative study the various reaction steps are examined in order to establish which one is rate controlling. It is concluded that the effects of film diffusion resistance within the conditions employed are negligible. In the quantitative study it was found that at 250 psig and 6500C the steam-methane reaction is much slower than the CO shift reaction and is rate controlling. Two rate mechanisms and accompanying kinetic rate equations are derived, both of which represent 'chemical' steps in the reaction and are considered of equal merit. However the possibility of a dual control involving 'chemical' and pore diffusion resistances is also expressed.

Understanding knowledge coordination dynamics in traditional and fast-response IT organizations

This research takes a dynamic view on the knowledge coordination process, aiming to explain how the process is affected by changes in the operating environment, from normal situations to emergencies in traditional and fast-response organizations, and why these changes occur. We first conceptualize the knowledge coordination process by distinguishing between four dimensions - what, when, how and who - that together capture the full scope of the knowledge coordination process. We use these dimensions to analyze knowledge coordination practices and the activities constituting these practices, in the IT functions of traditional and fast-response (military) organizations where we distinguish between "normal" and "emergency" operating conditions. Our findings indicate that (i) inter-relationships between knowledge coordination practices change under different operating conditions, and (ii) the patterns of change are different in traditional and fast-response organizations.

The construction and optimization of a surface plasmon resonance sensor for the studies of bio-molecular interactions

Bio-molecular interactions exist ubiquitously in all biological systems. This dissertation project was to construct a powerful surface plasmon resonance (SPR) sensor. The SPR system is used to study bio-molecular interactions in real time and without labeling. Surface plasmon is the oscillation of free electrons in metals coupled with surface electromagnetic waves. These surface electromagnetic waves provide a sensitive probe to study bio-molecular interactions on metal surfaces. This project resulted in the successful construction and optimization of a homemade SPR sensor and the development of several new powerful protocols to study bio-molecular interactions. It was discovered through this project that the limitations of earlier SPR sensors are related not only to the instrumentation design and operating procedures, but also to the complex behaviors of bio-molecules on sensor surfaces that were very different from that in solution. Based on these discoveries the instrumentation design and operating procedures were fully optimized. A set of existing sensor surface treatment protocols were tested and evaluated and new protocols were developed in this project. The new protocols have demonstrated excellent performance to study biomolecular interactions. The optimized home-made SPR sensor was used to study protein-surface interactions. These protein-surface interactions are responsible for many complex organic cell activities. The co-existence of different driving forces and their correlation with the structure of the protein and the surface make the understanding of the fundamental mechanism of protein-surface interactions a very challenging task. Using the improved SPR sensor, the electrostatic interaction and hydrophobic interaction were studied separately. The results of this project directly confirmed the theoretical predictions for electrostatic force between the protein and surface. In addition, this project demonstrated that the strength of the protein-surface hydrophobic interaction does not solely depend on the hydrophobicity as reported earlier. Surface structure also plays a significant role.

Escritório de projetos: proposta para implantação em uma empresa aeroportuária

Given the growth demand for air transport allied to the need of adequacy of the infrastructure of the airports the need arises for the elaboration and Project Deployment enhancements to to the administrative management with efficiency and effectiveness of processes. The present dissertation aims to develop an organizational and operational proposal to management improvement projects an airport midsize business. The state of art literature contemplated the following topics: project management, project office; improvement approaches; improvement projects and technical and support improvement projects and project management tools. The research method is characterized as a case study of a qualitative nature. The validation of the proposal was carried out through a focus group with the participation twelve representatives of the administrative areas of an airport-sized Brazilian midfielder with the objective of validate the proposed organizational structure and operational procedures and to identify the barriers to implementation of the proposal. The result of the work presents an proposed considering the integration of the project office with the organizational structure of the administration, the conception of the project office, operating procedures and the directives for implementation

Frontline employees’ innovative service behavior as key to customer loyalty:insights into FLEs’ resource gain spiral

Many service firms require frontline service employees (FLEs) to follow routines and standardized operating procedures during the service encounter, to deliver consistently high service standards. However, to create superior, pleasurable experiences for customers, featuring both helpful services and novel approaches to meeting their needs, firms in various sectors also have begun to encourage FLEs to engage in more innovative service behaviors. This study therefore investigates a new and complementary route to customer loyalty, beyond the conventional service-profit chain, that moves through FLEs' innovative service behavior. Drawing on conservation of resources (COR) theory, this study introduces a resource gain spiral at the service encounter, which runs from FLEs' emotional job engagement to innovative service behavior, and then leads to customer delight and finally customer loyalty. In accordance with COR theory, the proposed model also includes factors that might hinder (customer aggression, underemployment) or foster (colleague support, supervisor support) FLEs' resource gain spiral. A multilevel analysis of a large-scale, dyadic data set that contains responses from both FLEs and customers in multiple industries strongly supports the proposed resource gain spiral as a complementary route to customer loyalty. The positive emotional job engagement-innovative service behavior relationship is undermined by customer aggression and underemployment, as hypothesized. Surprisingly though, and contrary to the hypotheses, colleague and supervisor support do not seem to foster FLEs' resource gain spiral. Instead, colleague support weakens the engagement-innovative service behavior relationship, and supervisor support does not affect it. These results indicate that if FLEs can solicit resources from other sources, they may not need to invest as many of their individual resources. In particular, colleague support even appears to serve as a substitute for FLEs' individual resource investments in the resource gain spiral.

ERIC recommendations on TP53 mutation analysis in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Recent evidence suggests that - in addition to 17p deletion - TP53 mutation is an independent prognostic factor in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Data from retrospective analyses and prospective clinical trials show that ∼5% of untreated CLL patients with treatment indication have a TP53 mutation in the absence of 17p deletion. These patients have a poor response and reduced progression-free survival and overall survival with standard treatment approaches. These data suggest that TP53 mutation testing warrants integration into current diagnostic work up of patients with CLL. There are a number of assays to detect TP53 mutations, which have respective advantages and shortcomings. Direct Sanger sequencing of exons 4-9 can be recommended as a suitable test to identify TP53 mutations for centers with limited experience with alternative screening methods. Recommendations are provided on standard operating procedures, quality control, reporting and interpretation. Patients with treatment indications should be investigated for TP53 mutations in addition to the work-up recommended by the International workshop on CLL guidelines. Patients with TP53 mutation may be considered for allogeneic stem cell transplantation in first remission. Alemtuzumab-based regimens can yield a substantial proportion of complete responses, although of short duration. Ideally, patients should be treated within clinical trials exploring new therapeutic agents.

Predicting the performance of passenger ships using computer simulation

When designing a new passenger ship or naval vessel or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design is safe from an evacuation point of view? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Herald of Free Enterprise and the Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerned with the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models are now recognised by IMO through the publication of the Interim Guidelines for Evacuation Analysis of New and Existing Passenger Ships including Ro-Ro. This approach offers the promise to quickly and efficiently bring evacuation considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board" as well as reviewing and optimising the evacuation provision of the existing fleet. Other applications of this technology include the optimisation of operating procedures for civil and naval vessels such as determining the optimal location of a feature such as a casino, organising major passenger movement events such as boarding/disembarkation or restaurant/theatre changes, determining lean manning requirements, location and number of damage control parties, etc. This paper describes the development of the maritimeEXODUS evacuation model which is fully compliant with IMO requirements and briefly presents an example application to a large passenger ferry.