Risque de prix et décisions de production et d'exportation : le cas de l'agriculture au Québec

Cette thèse porte sur l’effet du risque de prix sur la décision des agriculteurs et les transformateurs québécois. Elle se divise en trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre revient sur la littérature. Le deuxième chapitre examine l’effet du risque de prix sur la production de trois produits, à savoir le maïs grain, la viande de porc et la viande d’agneau dans la province Québec. Le dernier chapitre est centré sur l’analyse de changement des préférences du transformateur québécois de porc pour ce qui est du choix de marché. Le premier chapitre vise à montrer l’importance de l’effet du risque du prix sur la quantité produite par les agriculteurs, tel que mis en évidence par la littérature. En effet, la littérature révèle l’importance du risque de prix à l’exportation sur le commerce international. Le deuxième chapitre est consacré à l’étude des facteurs du risque (les anticipations des prix et la volatilité des prix) dans la fonction de l’offre. Un modèle d’hétéroscédasticité conditionnelle autorégressive généralisée (GARCH) est utilisé afin de modéliser ces facteurs du risque. Les paramètres du modèle sont estimés par la méthode de l’Information Complète Maximum Vraisemblance (FIML). Les résultats empiriques montrent l’effet négatif de la volatilité du prix sur la production alors que la prévisibilité des prix a un effet positif sur la quantité produite. Comme attendu, nous constatons que l’application du programme d’assurance-stabilisation des revenus agricoles (ASRA) au Québec induit une plus importante sensibilité de l’offre par rapport au prix effectif (le prix incluant la compensation de l’ASRA) que par rapport au prix du marché. Par ailleurs, l’offre est moins sensible au prix des intrants qu’au prix de l’output. La diminution de l’aversion au risque de producteur est une autre conséquence de l’application de ce programme. En outre, l’estimation de la prime marginale relative au risque révèle que le producteur du maïs est le producteur le moins averse au risque (comparativement à celui de porc ou d’agneau). Le troisième chapitre consiste en l’analyse du changement de préférence du transformateur québécois du porc pour ce qui est du choix de marché. Nous supposons que le transformateur a la possibilité de fournir les produits sur deux marchés : étranger et local. Le modèle théorique explique l’offre relative comme étant une fonction à la fois d’anticipation relative et de volatilité relative des prix. Ainsi, ce modèle révèle que la sensibilité de l’offre relative par rapport à la volatilité relative de prix dépend de deux facteurs : d’une part, la part de l’exportation dans la production totale et d’autre part, l’élasticité de substitution entre les deux marchés. Un modèle à correction d’erreurs est utilisé lors d’estimation des paramètres du modèle. Les résultats montrent l’effet positif et significatif de l’anticipation relative du prix sur l’offre relative à court terme. Ces résultats montrent donc qu’une hausse de la volatilité du prix sur le marché étranger par rapport à celle sur le marché local entraine une baisse de l’offre relative sur le marché étranger à long terme. De plus, selon les résultats, les marchés étranger et local sont plus substituables à long terme qu’à court terme.

Essays on Macroeconomic Trends and Cycles

This dissertation describes two studies on macroeconomic trends and cycles. The first chapter studies the impact of Information Technology (IT) on the U.S. labor market. Over the past 30 years, employment and income shares of routine-intensive occupations have declined significantly relative to nonroutine occupations, and the overall U.S. labor income share has declined relative to capital. Furthermore, the decline of routine employment has been largely concentrated during recessions and ensuing recoveries. I build a model of unbalanced growth to assess the role of computerization and IT in driving these labor market trends and cycles. I augment a neoclassical growth model with exogenous IT progress as a form of Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC). I show analytically that RBTC causes the overall labor income share to follow a U-shaped time path, as the monotonic decline of routine labor share is increasingly offset by the monotonic rise of nonroutine labor share and the elasticity of substitution between the overall labor and capital declines under IT progress. Quantitatively, the model explains nearly all the divergence between routine and nonroutine labor in the period 1986-2014, as well as the mild decline of the overall labor share between 1986 and the early 2000s. However, the model with IT progress alone cannot explain the accelerated decline of labor income share after the early 2000s, suggesting that other factors, such as globalization, may have played a larger role in this period. Lastly, when nonconvex labor adjustment costs are present, the model generates a stepwise decline in routine labor hours, qualitatively consistent with the data. The timing of these trend adjustments can be significantly affected by aggregate productivity shocks and concentrated in recessions. The second chapter studies the implications of loss aversion on the business cycle dynamics of aggregate consumption and labor hours. Loss aversion refers to the fact that people are distinctively more sensitive to losses than to gains. Loss averse agents are very risk averse around the reference point and exhibit asymmetric responses to positive and negative income shocks. In an otherwise standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) model, I study loss aversion in both consumption alone and consumption-and-leisure together. My results indicate that how loss aversion affects business cycle dynamics depends critically on the nature of the reference point. If, for example, the reference point is status quo, loss aversion dramatically lowers the effective inter-temporal rate of substitution and induces excessive consumption smoothing. In contrast, if the reference point is fixed at a constant level, loss aversion generates a flat region in the decision rules and asymmetric impulse responses to technology shocks. Under a reasonable parametrization, loss aversion has the potential to generate asymmetric business cycles with deeper and more prolonged recessions.

Durability performance of concrete made with fine recycled concrete aggregates

Fine recycled aggregates are seen as the last choice in recycling for concrete production. Many references quote their detrimental influence on the most important characteristics of concrete: compressive and tensile strength; modulus of elasticity; water absorption; shrinkage: carbonation and chloride penetration. These two last characteristics are fundamental in terms of the long-term durability of reinforced or prestressed concrete. In the experimental research carried out at IST, part of which has already been published, different concrete mixes (with increasing rates of substitution of fine natural aggregates sand - with fine recycled aggregates from crushed concrete) were prepared and tested. The results were then compared with those for a reference concrete with exactly the same composition and grading curve, but with no recycled aggregates. This paper presents the main results of this research for water absorption by immersion and capillarity, chloride penetration (by means of the chloride migration coefficient), and carbonation resistance, drawing some conclusions on the feasibility of using this type of aggregate in structural concrete, while taking into account any ensuing obvious positive environmental impact.

Fossil fuel dependence and interfuel substitution in the electricity sector of Western European countries between 1990-2011

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Relationship between technological progress, capital elasticity and emissions of industrial pollutants for the production sectors in Catalonia

As is known, the Kyoto Protocol proposes to reinforce national policies for emission reduction and, furthermore, to cooperate with other contracting parties. In this context, it would be necessary to assess these emissions, both in general and specifically, by pollutants and/or among productive sectors. The object of this paper is precisely to estimate the polluting emissions of industrial origin in Catalonia in the year 2001, in a multivariate context which explicitly allows a distinction to be made between the polluter and/or the productive sector causing this emission. Six pollutants considered, four directly related to greenhouse effect. A multi-level model, with two levels, pollutants and productive sectors, was specified. Both technological progress and elasticity of capital were introduced as random effects. Hence, it has been permitted that these coefficients vary according to one or other level. The most important finding in this paper is that elasticity of capital has been estimated as very non-elastic, with a range which varies between 0.162 (the paper industry) and 0.556 (commerce). In fact, and generally speaking, the greater capital the sector has, the less elasticity of capital has been estimated. Key words: Kyoto protocol, multilevel model, technological progress

Carbon Stocks in Compartments of Soil Organic Matter 31 Years after Substitution of Native Cerrado Vegetation by Agroecosystems

ABSTRACT Changes in carbon stocks in different compartments of soil organic matter of a clayey Latossolo Vermelho Distrófico (Typic Haplustox), caused by the substitution of native savanna vegetation (cerrado sensu stricto) by agroecosystems, were assessed after 31 years of cultivation. Under native vegetation, a stock of 164.5 Mg ha-1 C was estimated in the 0.00-1.00 m layer. After 31 years of cultivation, these changes in soil C stocks were detected to a depth of 0.60 m. In the case of substitution of cerrado sensu stricto by no-tillage soybean-corn rotation, a reduction of at least 11 % of the soil C pools was observed. However, the adoption of no-tillage as an alternative to tillage with a moldboard plow (conventional system) reduced CO2 emissions by up to 12 %.

Gene-mediated restoration of normal myofiber elasticity in dystrophic muscles.

Dystrophin mediates a physical link between the cytoskeleton of muscle fibers and the extracellular matrix, and its absence leads to muscle degeneration and dystrophy. In this article, we show that the lack of dystrophin affects the elasticity of individual fibers within muscle tissue explants, as probed using atomic force microscopy (AFM), providing a sensitive and quantitative description of the properties of normal and dystrophic myofibers. The rescue of dystrophin expression by exon skipping or by the ectopic expression of the utrophin analogue normalized the elasticity of dystrophic muscles, and these effects were commensurate to the functional recovery of whole muscle strength. However, a more homogeneous and widespread restoration of normal elasticity was obtained by the exon-skipping approach when comparing individual myofibers. AFM may thus provide a quantification of the functional benefit of gene therapies from live tissues coupled to single-cell resolution.

Estimating the Price and Demand Development of Some Paperboard Grades

Työn tavoitteena oli luoda malli, jonka avulla voitaisiin ennustaa kartonkituotteiden hinnan ja kysynnän kehitystä. Työssä kerättiin aluksi tietoa kartonkimarkkinoista haastattelujen ja tilastotietojen avulla. Näiden perusteella luotiin malli, joka kuvaa kartonkimarkkinoiden ja -teollisuuden rakennetta. Erityisesti kiinnitettiin huomiota asiakkaiden tilauskäyttäytymiseen, tuotannonohjaukseen sekä hinnan muodostumiseen. Työssä käytettiin ennustemenetelmänä systeemidynamiikkaa. Oleellista oli löytää systeemissä esiintyvät tärkeimmät takaisinkytkennät ja systeemin avainmuuttujat. Kun kaikille mallin muuttujille oli määritetty yhtälöt ja vakioille annettu arvot, voitiin mallia simuloida, ja saada ennusteet halutuille muuttujille. Työssä esitettiin ennusteet kartonkimarkkinoiden tärkeimmille parametreille kahden vuoden päähän. Työssä tarkasteltiin myös, miten muutokset mallin käyttäytymistä säätelevissä muuttujissa vaikuttavat tuloksiin. Jotta pystyttäisiin paremmin selvittämään koko kartonkiteollisuuden dynamiikka, lisätutkimusta tarvittaisiin vielä eri kartonkilajien substituutiomahdollisuuksista ja hintojen riippuvuuksista. Mielenkiintoista olisi myös tietää, miten tuotannon käyttöasteiden muutokset ja hinnan vaihtelut vaikuttavat liiketoiminnan kannattavuuteen valmistajien näkökulmasta.

Patterns of nucleotide substitution in angiosperm cpDNA trnL (UAA)-trnF (GAA) regions

Patterns of substitution in chloroplast encoded trnL_F regions were compared between species of Actaea (Ranunculales), Digitalis (Scrophulariales), Drosera (Caryophyllales), Panicoideae (Poales), the small chromosome species clade of Pelargonium (Geraniales), each representing a different order of flowering plants, and Huperzia (Lycopodiales). In total, the study included 265 taxa, each with > 900-bp sequences, totaling 0.24 Mb. Both pairwise and phylogeny-based comparisons were used to assess nucleotide substitution patterns. In all six groups, we found that transition/transversion ratios, as estimated by maximum likelihood on most-parsimonious trees, ranged between 0.8 and 1.0 for ingroups. These values occurred both at low sequence divergences, where substitutional saturation, i.e., multiple substitutions having occurred at the same (homologous) nucleotide position, was not expected, and at higher levels of divergence. This suggests that the angiosperm trnL-F regions evolve in a pattern different from that generally observed for nuclear and animal mtDNA (transitional/transversion ratio > or = 2). Transition/transversion ratios in the intron and the spacer region differed in all alignments compared, yet base compositions between the regions were highly similar in all six groups. A>-C transversions were significantly less frequent than the other four substitution types. This correlates with results from studies on fidelity mechanisms in DNA replication that predict A<->T and G<->C transversions to be least likely to occur. It therefore strengthens confidence in the link between mutation bias at the polymerase level and the actual fixation of substitutions as recorded on evolutionary trees, and concomitantly, in the neutrality of nucleotide substitutions as phylogenetic markers.

The impact of maternal cortisol concentrations on child arterial elasticity

Epidemiological studies suggest that glucocorticoid excess in the fetus may contribute to the pathophysiology of cardiovascular diseases in adulthood. However, the impact of maternal glucocorticoid on the cardiovascular system of the offspring has not been much explored in studies involving humans, especially in childhood. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of maternal cortisol concentrations on child arterial elasticity. One hundred and thirty pregnant women followed from 1997 to 2000, and respective children 5-7 years of age followed from 2004 to 2006 were included in the study. Maternal cortisol was determined in saliva by an enzyme immunoassay utilizing the mean concentration of nine samples of saliva. Arterial elasticity was assessed by the large artery elasticity index (LAEI; the capacitive elasticity of large arteries) by recording radial artery pulse wave, utilizing the equipment HDI/PulseWave CR-2000 Cardiovascular Profiling System (R). The nutritional status of the children was determined by the body mass index (BMI). Insulin concentration was assessed by chemiluminescence, and insulin resistance by the homeostasis model assessment. Blood glucose, total cholesterol and fractions (LDL-c and HDL-c) and triglyceride concentrations were determined by automated enzymatic methods. The association between maternal cortisol and child arterial elasticity was assessed by multivariate linear regression analysis. There was a statistically significant association between maternal cortisol and LAEI (P=0.02), controlling for birth weight, age, BMI and HDL-c of the children. This study suggests that exposure to higher glucocorticoid concentrations in the prenatal period is associated to lower arterial elasticity in childhood, an earlier cardiovascular risk marker.

Probing the dependence of the properties of cellulose acetates and their films on the degree of biopolymer substitution: use of solvatochromic indicators and thermal analysis

Although cellulose acetates, CAs, are extensively employed there is scant information about the systematic dependence of their properties on their degree of substitution, DS; this is the subject of the present work. Nine CAs samples, DS from 0.83 to 3.0 were synthesized; their films were prepared. The following solvatochromic probes have been employed in order to determine the empirical polarity, E (T)(33); ""acidity, alpha""; ""basicity, beta"", and ""dipolarity/polarizability, pi*"" of the casted films: 2,6-dichloro-4-(2,4,6-triphenyl-pyridinium-1-yl) phenolate, WB; 4-nitroaniline; 4-nitroanisole; 4-nitro-N,N-dimethylaniline; 2,6-diphenyl-4-(2,4,6-triphenyl-pyridinium-1-yl)phenolate, RB. Additionally, two systems, ethanol plus ethyl acetate (EtOH-EtAc), and cellulose plus cellulose triacetate, CTA, were employed as models for CAs of different DS. Regarding the model systems, the following was observed: (i) For EtOH-EtAc, the dependence of all solvatochromic parameters on the ""equivalent-DS"" of the binary mixture was non-linear because of preferential solvation; (ii) The dependence of E (T)(33) on equivalent DS of the cellulose-CTA films is linear, but the slope is smaller than that of the corresponding plot for CAs. This is attributed to the more efficient hydrogen bonding in the model system, a conclusion corroborated by IR measurements. The dependence of solvatochromic parameters of CAs on their DS is described by the simple equations; a consequence of the substitution of the OH by the ester group. The thermal properties of bulk CAs samples were investigated by DSC and TGA; their dependence on DS is described by simple equations. The relevance of these data to the processing and applications of CAs is briefly discussed.

Studies on Electrophilic Substitution Reactions of 3-Phenyl-cycl[3.2.2]azine

Acetylation and formylation of 3-phenyl-cycl[3.2.2]azine derivatives, in the presence of Lewis acids, have been Investigated. It has been found that the orientation of substitution in 2-carbomethoxy- 3-phenyl-cycl[3.2.2]azine for these two reactions, under Identical conditions, is different.

Determinants of Advertising Effectiveness: The Development of an International Advertising Elasticity Database and a Meta-Analysis

Increasing demand for marketing accountability requires an efficient allocation of marketing expenditures. Managers who know the elasticity of their marketing instruments can allocate their budgets optimally. Meta-analyses offer a basis for deriving benchmark elasticities for advertising. Although they provide a variety of valuable insights, a major shortcoming of prior meta-analyses is that they report only generalized results as the disaggregated raw data are not made available. This problem is highly relevant because coding of empirical studies, at least to a certain extent, involves subjective judgment. For this reason, meta-studies would be more valuable if researchers and practitioners had access to disaggregated data allowing them to conduct further analyses of individual, e.g., product-level-specific, interests. We are the first to address this gap by providing (1) an advertising elasticity database (AED) and (2) empirical generalizations about advertising elasticities and their determinants. Our findings indicate that the average current-period advertising elasticity is 0.09, which is substantially smaller than the value 0f 0.12 that was recently reported by Sethuraman, Tellis, and Briesch (2011). Furthermore, our meta-analysis reveals a wide range of significant determinants of advertising elasticity. For example, we find that advertising elasticities are higher (i) for hedonic and experience goods than for other goods; (ii) for new than for established goods; (iii) when advertising is measured in gross rating points (GRP) instead of absolute terms; and (iv) when the lagged dependent or lagged advertising variable is omitted.

Resin composites: Modulus of elasticity and marginal quality

OBJECTIVE To investigate how the modulus of elasticity of resin composites influences marginal quality in restorations submitted to thermocyclic and mechanical loading. METHODS Charisma, Filtek Supreme XTE and Grandio were selected as they were found to possess different moduli of elasticity but quite similar polymerization contraction. MOD cavities (n=30) were prepared in extracted premolars, restored and then subjected to thermocyclic and mechanical loading. Marginal quality of the restorations before and after loading was analyzed on epoxy replicas under a scanning electron microscope. The percentage of gap-free margins and occurrence of paramarginal fractures were registered. Modulus of elasticity and polymerization contraction were analyzed with parametric and margins with nonparametric ANOVA and post hoc Tukey HSD or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, respectively. The number of paramarginal fractures was analyzed with exact Fisher tests (α=0.05). RESULTS Grandio demonstrated significantly more gap-free enamel margins than Charisma and Filtek Supreme XTE, before and after loading (p<0.01), whereas there was no difference between Charisma and Filtek Supreme XTE (p>0.05). No significant effect of resin composite (p=0.81) on the quality of dentine margins was observed, before or after loading. Deterioration of all margins was evident after loading (p<0.0001). More paramarginal enamel fractures were observed after loading in teeth restored with Grandio when compared to Charisma (p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS The resin composite with the highest modulus of elasticity resulted in the highest number of gap-free enamel margins but with an increased incidence of paramarginal enamel fractures. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE The results from this study suggest that the marginal quality of restorations can be improved by the selection of a resin composite with modulus of elasticity close to that of dentine, although an increase in paramarginal enamel fractures can result as a consequence.

STUDIES ON THE PATTERNS OF NUCLEOTIDE AND AMINO ACID SUBSTITUTION (ELECTROPHORESIS, MUTATION RATE, SELECTION, BASE, COMPOSITION)

Theoretical and empirical studies were conducted on the pattern of nucleotide and amino acid substitution in evolution, taking into account the effects of mutation at the nucleotide level and purifying selection at the amino acid level. A theoretical model for predicting the evolutionary change in electrophoretic mobility of a protein was also developed by using information on the pattern of amino acid substitution. The specific problems studied and the main results obtained are as follows: (1) Estimation of the pattern of nucleotide substitution in DNA nuclear genomes. The pattern of point mutations and nucleotide substitutions among the four different nucleotides are inferred from the evolutionary changes of pseudogenes and functional genes, respectively. Both patterns are non-random, the rate of change varying considerably with nucleotide pair, and that in both cases transitions occur somewhat more frequently than transversions. In protein evolution, substitution occurs more often between amino acids with similar physico-chemical properties than between dissimilar amino acids. (2) Estimation of the pattern of nucleotide substitution in RNA genomes. The majority of mutations in retroviruses accumulate at the reverse transcription stage. Selection at the amino acid level is very weak, and almost non-existent between synonymous codons. The pattern of mutation is very different from that in DNA genomes. Nevertheless, the pattern of purifying selection at the amino acid level is similar to that in DNA genomes, although selection intensity is much weaker. (3) Evaluation of the determinants of molecular evolutionary rates in protein-coding genes. Based on rates of nucleotide substitution for mammalian genes, the rate of amino acid substitution of a protein is determined by its amino acid composition. The content of glycine is shown to correlate strongly and negatively with the rate of substitution. Empirical formulae, called indices of mutability, are developed in order to predict the rate of molecular evolution of a protein from data on its amino acid sequence. (4) Studies on the evolutionary patterns of electrophoretic mobility of proteins. A theoretical model was constructed that predicts the electric charge of a protein at any given pH and its isoelectric point from data on its primary and quaternary structures. Using this model, the evolutionary change in electrophoretic mobilities of different proteins and the expected amount of electrophoretically hidden genetic variation were studied. In the absence of selection for the pI value, proteins will on the average evolve toward a mildly basic pI. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^