How to get out of the crisis without reforms? The Belarusian authorities confront growing economic problems. OSW Commentary NUMBER 202/21.03.2016

2015 saw a drop in Belarus’s GDP for the first time in almost 20 years, which is primarily the result of a significant reduction in levels of production and export. As a consequence, there was also a serious depletion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, as well as a progressive weakening of the Belarusian rouble. The macroeconomic figures from January and February 2016 show that these trends are not only continuing, but they are also becoming even more severe, which confirms that Belarus now finds itself in a prolonged economic crisis. On one hand, the reason for this state of affairs is the protracted economic recession in Russia, which is Belarus’s main economic partner, together with the drastic global decline in prices for fuel, which is a key Belarusian export. On the other hand, meanwhile, an equally important reason for the current crisis is the failure of the Belarusian economic model. President Aleksandr Lukashenko, out of fear that his authoritarian system of government will be dismantled and that public discontent will rise, has categorically rejected the proposals for even partial reforms put forward by some of his entourage, who are aware of the need for the immediate transformation of the country’s anachronistic and very costly economic model, based as it still is on quasi-Soviet management policies.

Homogeneous Spatial Units (HSU) - a Pan-European geographical basis for environmental and socio-economic modelling

The spatial data set delineates areas with similar environmental properties regarding soil, terrain morphology, climate and affiliation to the same administrative unit (NUTS3 or comparable units in size) at a minimum pixel size of 1km2. The scope of developing this data set is to provide a link between spatial environmental information (e.g. soil properties) and statistical data (e.g. crop distribution) available at administrative level. Impact assessment of agricultural management on emissions of pollutants or radiative active gases, or analysis regarding the influence of agricultural management on the supply of ecosystem services, require the proper spatial coincidence of the driving factors. The HSU data set provides e.g. the link between the agro-economic model CAPRI and biophysical assessment of environmental impacts (updating previously spatial units, Leip et al. 2008), for the analysis of policy scenarios. Recently, a statistical model to disaggregate crop information available from regional statistics to the HSU has been developed (Lamboni et al. 2016). The HSU data set consists of the spatial layers provided in vector and raster format as well as attribute tables with information on the properties of the HSU. All input data for the delineation the HSU is publicly available. For some parameters the attribute tables provide the link between the HSU data set and e.g. the soil map(s) rather than the data itself. The HSU data set is closely linked the USCIE data set.

An economic analysis of life expectancy by gender with application to the United States

This paper presents an economic model to explain the behavior of life expectancy of both sexes. It explicitly examines the relationship between the gender gap in life expectancy and the gender gap in pay. It shows that as the latter narrows over the course of economic development, the former may initially expand but will eventually shrink. Simulation results from our model accord with the behavior of life expectancy for both sexes since the 1940s in the United States. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Financial and economic performance of long-rotation hardwood plantation investments in Queensland, Australia

In Queensland, Australia, there is presently a high level of interest in long-rotation hardwood plantation investments for sawlog production, despite the consensus in Australian literature that such investments are not financially viable. Continuing genetics, silviculture and processing research, and increasing awareness about the ecosystem services generated by plantations, are anticipated to make future plantings profitable and socio-economically desirable in many parts of Queensland. Financial and economic models of hardwood plantations in Queensland are developed to test this hypothesis. The economic model accounts for carbon sequestration, salinity amelioration and other ecosystem service values of hardwood plantations. A carbon model estimates the value of carbon sequestered, while salinity and other ecosystem service values are estimated by the benefit transfer method. Where high growth rates (20-25 m(3) ha(-1) year(-1)) are achievable, long-rotation hardwood plantations are profitable in Queensland Hardwood Regions 1, 3 and 7 when rural land values are less than $2300/ha. Under optimistic assumptions, hardwood plantations growing at a rate of 15 in 3 ha-1 year 1 are financially viable in Hardwood Regions 2, 4 and 8, provided land values are less than $1600/ha. The major implication of the economic analysis is that long-rotation hardwood plantation forestry is socio-economically justified in most Hardwood Regions, even though financial returns from timber production may be negative. (c) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model to assess the cost effectiveness of statins in achieving the UK National Service Framework target cholesterol levels

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a public health priority in the UK. The National Service Framework (NSF) has set standards for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of CHD, which include the use of cholesterol-lowering agents aimed at achieving targets of blood total cholesterol (TC) < 5.0 mmol/L and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) < 3.0 mmol/L. In order to achieve these targets cost effectively, prescribers need to make an informed choice from the range of statins available. Aim: To estimate the average and relative cost effectiveness of atorvastatin, fluvastatin, pravastatin and simvastatin in achieving the NSF LDL-C and TC targets. Design: Model-based economic evaluation. Methods: An economic model was constructed to estimate the number of patients achieving the NSF targets for LDL-C and TC at each dose of statin, and to calculate the average drug cost and incremental drug cost per patient achieving the target levels. The population baseline LDL-C and TC, and drug efficacy and drug costs were taken from previously published data. Estimates of the distribution of patients receiving each dose of statin were derived from the UK national DIN-LINK database. Results: The estimated annual drug cost per 1000 patients treated with atorvastatin was £289 000, with simvastatin £315 000, with pravastatin £333 000 and with fluvastatin £167 000. The percentages of patients achieving target are 74.4%, 46.4%, 28.4% and 13.2% for atorvastatin, simvastatin, pravastatin and fluvastatin, respectively. Incremental drug cost per extra patient treated to LDL-C and TC targets compared with fluvastafin were £198 and £226 for atorvastatin, £443 and £567 for simvastatin and £1089 and £2298 for pravastatin, using 2002 drug costs. Conclusions: As a result of its superior efficacy, atorvastatin generates a favourable cost-effectiveness profile as measured by drug cost per patient treated to LDL-C and TC targets. For a given drug budget, more patients would achieve NSF LDL-C and TC targets with atorvastatin than with any of the other statins examined.

Raúl Castro's Government: Recent Economic Reforms and Some Political Considerations.

Four years after calling for structural and conceptual changes, Raúl Castro finally unveiled a roadmap of substantive economic reforms. Over the next 18 months, at least a million workers will be laid off from the bloated state sector. Alternative forms of earning a living – self-employment, cooperatives, leasing of land or physical space, among others – are being authorized as old constraints on these alternatives are rescinded. From the perspective of ordinary Cubans, these reforms – called an actualizaciόn, or an update of the economic model – were long overdue. Yet, in hindsight, the slow-paced process can be explained, not in terms of the need for time to “identify” Cuba’s economic problems which have been known for decades, but by Raúl Castro’s emphasis on la institucionalidad, the need to channel decision making through institutions. His brother left a chaotic state apparatus which first needed mending before an elite consensus on the reform package could be forged. Cuba is entering a situation without precedent: this package is likely to run its own course without the Comandante (Fidel Castro) stopping it. By 2015, Cuban society will probably look different than today, featuring unprecedented inequality and living standards that are on the rise.

Sepsis: the LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE®, SepsiTest™ and IRIDICA BAC BSI assay for rapidly identifying bloodstream bacteria and fungi – a systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: Sepsis can lead to multiple organ failure and death. Timely and appropriate treatment can reduce in-hospital mortality and morbidity. Objectives: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three tests [LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE® (Roche Diagnostics, Risch-Rotkreuz, Switzerland); SepsiTest™ (Molzym Molecular Diagnostics, Bremen, Germany); and the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay (Abbott Diagnostics, Lake Forest, IL, USA)] for the rapid identification of bloodstream bacteria and fungi in patients with suspected sepsis compared with standard practice (blood culture with or without matrix-absorbed laser desorption/ionisation time-offlight mass spectrometry). Data sources: Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched from January 2006 to May 2015 and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles. Review methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of effectiveness studies were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a de novo health economic model was constructed. A decision tree was used to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each test; all other parameters were estimated from published sources. The model was populated with evidence from the systematic review or individual studies, if this was considered more appropriate (base case 1). In a secondary analysis, estimates (based on experience and opinion) from seven clinicians regarding the benefits of earlier test results were sought (base case 2). A NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty. Results: For the review of diagnostic test accuracy, 62 studies of varying methodological quality were included. A meta-analysis of 54 studies comparing SeptiFast with blood culture found that SeptiFast had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.84 to 0.89] and sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CrI 0.60 to 0.71). Four studies comparing SepsiTest with blood culture found that SepsiTest had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 (95% CrI 0.78 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.48 (95% CrI 0.21 to 0.74), and four studies comparing IRIDICA with blood culture found that IRIDICA had an estimated summary specificity of 0.84 (95% CrI 0.71 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CrI 0.69 to 0.90). Owing to the deficiencies in study quality for all interventions, diagnostic accuracy data should be treated with caution. No randomised clinical trial evidence was identified that indicated that any of the tests significantly improved key patient outcomes, such as mortality or duration in an intensive care unit or hospital. Base case 1 estimated that none of the three tests provided a benefit to patients compared with standard practice and thus all tests were dominated. In contrast, in base case 2 it was estimated that all cost per QALY-gained values were below £20,000; the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay had the highest estimated incremental net benefit, but results from base case 2 should be treated with caution as these are not evidence based. Limitations: Robust data to accurately assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions are currently unavailable. Conclusions: The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions cannot be reliably determined with the current evidence base. Appropriate studies, which allow information from the tests to be implemented in clinical practice, are required.

Adapting, renewing, subverting : what place the performing arts in the creative industries?

Creative Industries was adopted as a platform in the 90s by the Blair government in the UK to describe the convergence of the arts, media, communication and information technologies as a newly formed cluster, providing economic and cultural capital for the knowledge economy. The philosophy and rhetoric which has grown around this concept (Leadbeater 2000, Castells 2000, Florida 2000, Caves 2000, Hartley 2000) has been influential in re-contextualising culture and the arts in the 21st century. Where governments and educational institutions have embraced the context of the creative industries, it is having a profound effect on the way arts are being positioned, originally as ‘creative content’ for the new economy. Countries and regions which have actively targeted the Creative Industries as an important economic growth factor in a post-industrial environment are numerous, but it is interesting to note that North and South East Asia and Australia have been at the forefront of developing the Creative Industries in its various guises. It could be argued that the initial phase of Creative Industries concentrated on media and communication technologies to provide commercial outcomes in small incubator business models; developing, for example, products for the games industry. Creative Industries is now entering a second phase of development; one in which the broader palette of the arts, though still not at the forefront of debate, is being re-examined. Both phases of Creative Industries have emphasised creativity and innovation as key drivers in the success and effectiveness of this sector, and although the arts by no means has a monopoly on these drivers, it is where they have an important part to play in the creative industries context. Arguably, the second wave of the creative industries acknowledges to a greater extent that commercialisation works in tandem with government and other support in a complex mixed economic model. In relation to the performing arts, the global market has seen an increase in large-scale cultural events such as festivals which are providing employment for the arts industry and multiplier effects in other parts of the economy. Differentiated product is important in this competitive arena and the use of mediated and digitised environments has been able to increase the amount of arts product available to an international market. This changed environment requires the development of new skills for our artists and producers and has given rise to a reappraisal of approaches to arts training and research in the Higher Degree Education sector (Brown 2007, Cunningham 2006). This paper examines pedagogical changes which took place in the first Creative Industries Faculty in the world at Queensland University of Technology as well as the increased opportunities for leading research initiatives. It concludes with the example of an interdisciplinary artwork produced in a creative industries precinct, exemplifying the convergence of arts and communication technologies and that of artistic practice and research.

Demand side response to mitigate electrical peak demand in Eastern and Southern Australia

The aim of this work is to develop a Demand-Side-Response (DSR) model, which assists electricity end-users to be engaged in mitigating peak demands on the electricity network in Eastern and Southern Australia. The proposed innovative model will comprise a technical set-up of a programmable internet relay, a router, solid state switches in addition to the suitable software to control electricity demand at user's premises. The software on appropriate multimedia tool (CD Rom) will be curtailing/shifting electric loads to the most appropriate time of the day following the implemented economic model, which is designed to be maximizing financial benefits to electricity consumers. Additionally the model is targeting a national electrical load be spread-out evenly throughout the year in order to satisfy best economic performance for electricity generation, transmission and distribution. The model is applicable in region managed by the Australian Energy Management Operator (AEMO) covering states of Eastern-, Southern-Australia and Tasmania.

An analysis of holding cost impact on housing affordability in relation to midsized Greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland

The position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian situation counters the experience demonstrated in many other parts of the world in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, with residential housing prices proving particularly resilient. A seemingly inexorable housing demand remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of population growth fuelled by immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand level ensures problems related to housing affordability continue almost unabated. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability relates to holding costs. Although only one contributor in the housing affordability matrix, the nature and extent of holding cost impact requires elucidation: for example, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely - and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements that comprise holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Such anomalies may be explained by considering that assessment is conducted over time in an ever-changing environment. A strong relationship with opportunity cost - in turn dependant inter alia upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates - adds further complexity. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs specifically in the context of midsized (i.e. between 15-200 lots) greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland. With the dimensions of holding costs and their influence over housing affordability determined, the null hypothesis H0 that holding costs are not passed on can be addressed. Arriving at these conclusions involves the development of robust economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding cost elements. An explanatory sequential design research methodology has been adopted, whereby the compilation and analysis of quantitative data and the development of an economic model is informed by the subsequent collection and analysis of primarily qualitative data derived from surveying development related organisations. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

Perceived obstacles to multi-storey timber-frame construction : an Australian study

The contemporary default materials for multi-storey buildings – namely concrete and steel – are all significant generators of carbon and the use of timber products provides a technically, economically and environmentally viable alternative. In particular, timber’s sustainability can drive increased use and subsequent evolution of the Blue economy as a new economic model. National research to date, however, indicates a resistance to the uptake of timber technologies in Australia. To investigate this further, a preliminary study involving a convenience sample of 15 experts was conducted to identify the main barriers involved in the use of timber frames in multi-storey buildings. A closed-ended questionnaire survey involving 74 experienced construction industry participants was then undertaken to rate the relative importance of the barriers. The survey confirmed the most significant barriers to be a perceived increase in maintenance costs and fire risk, together with a limited awareness of the emerging timber technologies available. It is expected that the results will benefit government and the timber industry, contributing to environmental improvement by developing strategies to increase the use of timber technologies in multi-storey buildings by countering perceived barriers in the Australian context.

On the effectiveness of a license scheme for E-waste recycling : the challenge of China and India

It is well known that China and India have been recycling centers of WEEE, especially printed circuit boards, and that serious environmental pollution in these countries has been generated by improper recycling methods. After the governments of China and India banned improper recycling by the informal sector, improper recycling activities spread to other places. Then, these governments changed their policies to one of promoting proper recycling by introducing a scheme, under which E-waste recycling requires a license issued by the government. In this paper, the effectiveness of that license scheme is examined by means of an economic model. It can be shown that the license scheme can work effectively only if disposers of E-waste have a responsibility to sell E-waste to license holders. Our results run counter to the idea that international E-waste trade should be banned and provide an alternative solution to the problem.

Smart Cities, Social Capital, and Citizens at Play: A Critique and a Way Forward

Digital transformations are not contained within the digital domain but are increasingly spilling over into the physical world. In this chapter, we analyse some of the transformations undergoing in cities today towards becoming smart cities. We offer a critique of smart cities and a way forward, divided into three parts: First, we explore the concept of Smart Citizens in terms of both localities, the move towards a hyperlocal network and also the citizen’s role in the creation and use of data. We use the ‘Smart London’ plan drawn up by the Mayor of London, as a way to illustrate our discussion. Second, we turn to the civic innovations enabled by digital transformations and their potential impact on citizens and citizenship. Specifically, we are interested in the notion of social capital as an alternative form of in-kind currency and its function as an indicator of value, in order to ask, can digital transformations give rise to ‘civic capital,’ and how can such a concept help, for instance, a local government invite more representative residents and community champions to participate in community engagement for better urban planning. Third, we introduce a hybrid, location-based game under development by design agency Preliminal Games in London, UK. This illustrative case critiques and highlights the current challenges to establishing a new economic model that bridges the digital / physical divide. The game provides a vehicle for us to explore how established principles and strategies in game design such as immersive storytelling and goal setting, can be employed to encourage players to think of the interconnections of their hybrid digital / physical environments in new ways.

Quantifying differences between treated and untreated coir substrate

The aim of this project was to quantify differences between treated and untreated coir (coconut industrial residues) products and to identify differences in growth, yield and quality of cut flowers grown in different coir products. This has been brought about largely by the concern that some coir products, washed in low quality (saline) water may have detrimental effects on plant productivity and quality. There is concern in the flower production industry and among media suppliers, that lower quality products are favoured due to price alone, which as this project shows is a false economy. Specifically the project examined: • Differences in physical and chemical properties of treated and untreated coir along with another commonly used growing media in the flower industy; • Potential improvements in yield and quality of Gerbera (Gerbera jamesonii); • Potential differences in vase life of Gerbera as a result of the different growing media; and • Cost-benefit implications of treated (more expensive) coir substrate products versus untreated (less expensive) coir including any subsequent differences in yield and quality. By first examining the physical and some chemical properties of different coir substrates and other industry standard media, the researchers have been able to validate the concerns raised about the potential quality issues in coir based growing media. There was a great deal of variation in both the electrical conductivity and sodium contents. Physical properties were also variable as expected since manufacturers are able to target the specific physical preferences of plants through manipulation of the particle size distribution. A field trial was conducted under protected cropping practices in which three growing media were compared in terms of total productivity and also flower quality parameters such as stem length, flower diameter and vase life. The trial was a completely randomised design with the three growing media comprising treated coir discs, untreated coir discs and a pine bark coir mix. Four cultivars of Gerbera were assessed: Balance®; Carambole®; Dune® and Picobello®, all new products from Florist de Kwakel B.V., Denmark. Initial expansion from tissue culture was conducted at the Highsun Express Facility, Ormiston, Queensland. The trial included 12 replications of each cultivar in each media (a total of 144 plants) to ensure all data collected, and the derived conclusions were statistically rigorous. The coir supplied with no pre-treatment or buffering produced significantly less flowers than those grown in a pine bark coir mix or the pre-treated coir. Interestingly, the pine bark coir mix produced a greater number of flowers. However, the flowers produced in the pine bark coir mix were generally a shorter length stem. Productivity data, combined with flower quality data and component costs were all analysed through a cost/benefit economic model which showed that the greater revenue from better stem length outweighed the stem numbers, giving a cost benefit ratio of 2.58 for treated coir, 2.49 for untreated coir and 2.52 for pine bark coir mix. While this does not seem a large difference, when considering the number of plants a producer maintains can be upwards of 50,000 the difference in revenue would be, at a minimum $60,000 in this example. In conclusion, this project has found that there are significant effects on plant health, growth, yield and quality between those grown in treated and untreated coir. The outcome being growers can confidently invest in more expensive treated products with the assurance that benefits will outweigh initial cost. It is false economy to favour untreated coir products based on price alone. Producers should ensure they fully understand the production processes when purchasing growing media. Rather than targeting lower priced materials, it is recommended that quality be the highest priority in making this management decision. In making recommendations for future research and development it was important to consider conclusions from other researchers as well as those of the current project. It has been suggested that the media has greater longevity, which although not captured in this study could also lead to further cost efficiencies. Assessment of the products over a longer time period, and using a wider range of plant species are the major recommendations for further research to ensure greater understanding as to the importance in choosing the right growing media to meet specific needs.

Polybridge Technical Report

This study examined the physical and chemical properties of a novel, fully-recirculated prawn and polychaete production system that incorporated polychaete-assisted sand filters (PASF). The aims were to assess and demonstrate the potential of this system for industrialisation, and to provide optimisations for wastewater treatment by PASF. Two successive seasons were studied at commercially-relevant scales in a prototype system constructed at the Bribie Island Research Centre in Southeast Queensland. The project produced over 5.4 tonnes of high quality black tiger prawns at rates up to 9.9 tonnes per hectare, with feed conversion of up to 1.1. Additionally, the project produced about 930 kg of high value polychaete biomass at rates up to 1.5 kg per square metre of PASF, with the worms feeding predominantly on waste nutrients. Importantly, this closed production system demonstrated rapid growth of healthy prawns at commercially relevant production levels, using methods that appear feasible for application at large scale. Deeper (23 cm) PASF beds provided similar but more reliable wastewater treatment efficacies compared with shallower (13 cm) beds, but did not demonstrate significantly greater polychaete productivity than (easier to harvest) shallow beds. The nutrient dynamics associated with seasonal and tidal operations of the system were studied in detail, providing technical and practical insights into how PASF could be optimised for the mitigation of nutrient discharge. The study also highlighted some of the other important advantages of this integrated system, including low sludge production, no water discharge during the culture phase, high ecosystem health, good prospects for biosecurity controls, and the sustainable production of a fishery-limited resource (polychaetes) that may be essential for the expansion of prawn farming industries throughout the world. Regarding nutrient discharge from this prototype mariculture system, when PASF was operating correctly it proved feasible to have no water (or nutrient) discharge during the entire prawn growing season. However, the final drain harvest and emptying of ponds that is necessary at the end of the prawn farming season released 58.4 kg ha-1 of nitrogen and 6 kg ha-1 of phosphorus (in Season 2). Whilst this is well below (i.e., one-third to one-half of) the current load-based licencing conditions for many prawn farms in Australia, the levels of nitrogen and chlorophyll a in the ponds remained higher than the more-stringent maximum limits at the Bribie Island study site. Zero-net-nutrient discharge was not achieved, but waste nutrients were low where 5.91 kg of nitrogen and 0.61 kg of phosphorus was discharged per tonne of prawns produced. This was from a system that deployed PASF at 14.4% of total ponded farm area which treated an average of 5.8% of pond water daily and did not use settlement ponds or other natural or artificial water remediation systems. Four supplemental appendices complement this research by studying several additional aspects that are central to the industrialisation of PASF. The first details an economic model and decision tool which allows potential users to interactively assess construction and operational variables of PASF at different scales. The second provides the qualitative results of a prawn maturation trial conducted collaboratively with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) to assess dietary inclusions of PASF-produced worms. The third provides the reproductive results from industry-based assessments of prawn broodstock produced using PASF. And the fourth appendix provides detailed elemental and nutritional analyses of bacterial biofilm produced by PASF and assesses its potential to improve the growth of prawns in recirculated culture systems.