The origin of the solar magnetic cycle

After summarizing the relevant observational data, we discuss how a study of flux tube dynamics in the solar convection zone helps us to understand the formation of sunspots. Then we introduce the flux transport dynamo model and assess its success in modelling both the solar cycle and its departures from strictly periodic behaviour.

Is meridional circulation important in modelling irregularities of the solar cycle?

We explore the importance of meridional circulation variations in modelling the irregularities of the solar cycle by using the flux transport dynamo model. We show that a fluctuating meridional circulation can reproduce some features of the solar cycle like the Waldmeier effect and the grand minimum. However, we get all these results only if the value of the turbulent diffusivity in the convection zone is reasonably high.

Origin of grand minima in Sunspot cycles

One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic isotopes (C-14 and Be-10) indicated that there were about 27 grand minima in the last 11 000 yrs, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the question of how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. We assume that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation mechanism and in the meridional circulation produce irregularities of sunspot cycles. Taking these fluctuations to be Gaussian and estimating the values of important parameters from the data of the last 28 solar cycles, we show from our flux transport dynamo model that about 1-4% of the sunspot cycles may have conditions suitable for inducing grand minima.

TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY

Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus. Yeates et al. have shown that the dynamical memory of the solar dynamo mechanism governs predictability, and this memory is different for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. By utilizing stochastically forced, kinematic dynamo simulations, we demonstrate that the inclusion of downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux reduces the memory of both advection- and diffusion-dominated solar dynamos to only one cycle; stronger pumping degrades this memory further. Thus, our results reconcile the diverging dynamo-model-based forecasts for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. We conclude that reliable predictions for the maximum of solar activity can be made only at the preceding minimum-allowing about five years of advance planning for space weather. For more accurate predictions, sequential data assimilation would be necessary in forecasting models to account for the Sun's short memory.

Fluctuations in the alpha-effect and grand solar minima

The parameters of a special type of alpha-effect known in dynamo theory as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are estimated using the data of sunspot catalogs. The estimates support the presence of the Babcock-Leighton alpha-effect on the Sun. Fluctuations of the alpha-effect are also estimated. The fluctuation amplitude appreciably exceeds themean value, and the characteristic time for the fluctuations is comparable to the period of the solar rotation. Fluctuations with the parameters found are included in a numericalmodel for the solar dynamo. Computations show irregular changes in the amplitudes of the magnetic cycles on time scales of centuries and millennia. The calculated statistical characteristics of the grand solar minima and maxima agree with the data on solar activity over the Holocene.

Can Superflares Occur on Our Sun?

Recent observations of Sun-like stars, similar to our Sun in their surface temperature (5600-6000 K) and slow rotation (rotational period > 10 d), using the Kepler satellite by Maehara et al. (2012, Nature, 485, 478) have revealed the existence of superflares (with energy of 10(33)-10(35) erg). From statistical analyses of these superflares, it was found that superflares with energy of 10(34) erg occur once in 800 yr, and superflares with 10(35) erg occur once in 5000 yr. In this paper, we examine whether superflares with energy of 10(33)-10(35) erg could occur on the present Sun through the use of simple order-of-magnitude estimates based on current ideas related to the mechanisms of the solar dynamo. If magnetic flux is generated by differential rotation at the base of the convection zone, as assumed in typical dynamo models, it is possible that the present Sun would generate a large sunspot with a total magnetic flux of similar to 2 x 10(23) Mx (= G cm(2)) within one solar cycle period, and lead to superflares with an energy of 10(34) erg. To store a total magnetic flux of similar to 10(24) Mx, necessary for generating 10(35) erg superflares, it would take similar to 40 yr. Hot Jupiters have often been argued to be a necessary ingredient for the generation of superflares, but we found that they do not play any essential role in the generation of magnetic flux in the star itself, if we consider only the magnetic interaction between the star and the hot Jupiter. This seems to be consistent with Maehara et al.'s finding of 148 superflare-generating solar-type stars that do not have a hot Jupiter-like companion. Altogether, our simple calculations, combined with Maehara et al.'s analysis of superflares on Sun-like stars, show that there is a possibility that superflares of 10(34) erg would occur once in 800 yr on our present Sun.

POLAR NETWORK INDEX AS A MAGNETIC PROXY FOR THE SOLAR CYCLE STUDIES

The Sun has a polar magnetic field which oscillates with the 11 yr sunspot cycle. This polar magnetic field is an important component of the dynamo process which operates in the solar convection zone and produces the sunspot cycle. We have direct systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field only from about the mid-1970s. There are, however, indirect proxies which give us information about this field at earlier times. The Ca-K spectroheliograms taken at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during 1904-2007 have now been digitized with 4k x 4k CCD and have higher resolution (similar to 0.86 arcsec) than the other available historical data sets. From these Ca-K spectroheliograms, we have developed a completely new proxy (polar network index, hereafter PNI) for the Sun's polar magnetic field. We calculate PNI from the digitized images using an automated algorithm and calibrate our measured PNI against the polar field as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory for the period 1976-1990. This calibration allows us to estimate the polar fields for the earlier period up to 1904. The dynamo calculations performed with this proxy as input data reproduce reasonably well the Sun's magnetic behavior for the past century.

The irregularities of the sunspot cycle and their theoretical modelling

The 11-year sunspot cycle has many irregularities, the most prominent amongst them being the grand minima when sunspots may not be seen for several cycles. After summarizing the relevant observational data about the irregularities, we introduce the flux transport dynamo model, the currently most successful theoretical model for explaining the 11-year sunspot cycle. Then we analyze the respective roles of nonlinearities and random fluctuations in creating the irregularities. We also discuss how it has recently been realized that the fluctuations in meridional circulation also can be a source of irregularities. We end by pointing out that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation and fluctuations in meridional circulation together can explain the occurrences of grand minima.

The role of buoyancy in polarity reversals of the geodynamo

We investigate polarity reversals in the geodynamo using a rotating, convection-driven dynamo model. As the flow in rapidly rotating convection is dominated by columns aligned with the axis of rotation, the focus is on the dynamics of columnar vortices. By studying the growth of a seed magnetic field to a stable axial dipole field, we show that the magnetic field acts in ways that significantly enhance the relative helicity between cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices. This flow asymmetry is the hallmark of a dipolar dynamo. Strong buoyancy, on the other hand, offsets the effect of the magnetic field, establishing parity between positive and negative vortices. As the dipole field is deprived of the helicity required to support itself, the dynamo is pushed into a reversing state. This is a likely regime for polarity reversals in the Earth's core. The integral lengthscale at which buoyancy injects energy is not significantly different from the convective flow lengthscale, which implies that buoyancy does not feed vortices at the small scales where non-linear inertia is present. The lengthscale at which the Lorentz force acts in the reversing dynamo is small, which may allow the passive presence of non-linear inertia in the small scales.

Flux Transport Dynamos: From Kinematics to Dynamics

Over the past several decades, Flux-Transport Dynamo (FTD) models have emerged as a popular paradigm for explaining the cyclic nature of solar magnetic activity. Their defining characteristic is the key role played by the mean meridional circulation in transporting magnetic flux and thereby regulating the cycle period. Most FTD models also incorporate the so-called Babcock-Leighton (BL) mechanism in which the mean poloidal field is produced by the emergence and subsequent dispersal of bipolar active regions. This feature is well grounded in solar observations and provides a means for assimilating observed surface flows and fields into the models in order to forecast future solar activity, to identify model biases, and to clarify the underlying physical processes. Furthermore, interpreting historical sunspot records within the context of FTD models can potentially provide insight into why cycle features such as amplitude and duration vary and what causes extreme events such as Grand Minima. Though they are generally robust in a modeling sense and make good contact with observed cycle features, FTD models rely on input physics that is only partially constrained by observation and that neglects the subtleties of convective transport, convective field generation, and nonlinear feedbacks. Here we review the formulation and application of FTD models and assess our current understanding of the input physics based largely on complementary 3D MHD simulations of solar convection, dynamo action, and flux emergence.

On the control of rapidly rotating convection by an axially varying magnetic field

The magnetic field in rapidly rotating dynamos is spatially inhomogeneous. The axial variation of the magnetic field is of particular importance because tall columnar vortices aligned with the rotation axis form at the onset of convection. The classical picture of magnetoconvection with constant or axially varying magnetic fields is that the Rayleigh number and wavenumber at onset decrease appreciably from their non-magnetic values. Nonlinear dynamo simulations show that the axial lengthscale of the self-generated azimuthal magnetic field becomes progressively smaller as we move towards a rapidly rotating regime. With a small-scale field, however, the magnetic control of convection is different from that in previous studies with a uniform or large-scale field. This study looks at the competing viscous and magnetic mode instabilities when the Ekman number E (ratio of viscous to Coriolis forces) is small. As the applied magnetic field strength (measured by the Elsasser number Lambda) increases, the critical Rayleigh number for onset of convection initially increases in a viscous branch, reaches an apex where both viscous and magnetic instabilities co-exist, and then falls in the magnetic branch. The magnetic mode of onset is notable for its dramatic suppression of convection in the bulk of the fluid layer where the field is weak. The viscous-magnetic mode transition occurs at Lambda similar to 1, which implies that small-scale convection can exist at field strengths higher than previously thought. In spherical shell dynamos with basal heating, convection near the tangent cylinder is likely to be in the magnetic mode. The wavenumber of convection is only slightly reduced by the self-generated magnetic field at Lambda similar to 1, in agreement with previous planetary dynamo models. The back reaction of the magnetic field on the flow is, however, visible in the difference in kinetic helicity between cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices.

Dynamos driven by weak thermal convection and heterogeneous outer boundary heat flux

We use numerical dynamo models with heterogeneous core-mantle boundary (CMB) heat flux to show that lower mantle lateral thermal variability may help support a dynamo under weak thermal convection. In our reference models with homogeneous CMB heat flux, convection is either marginally supercritical or absent, always below the threshold for dynamo onset. We find that lateral CMB heat flux variations organize the flow in the core into patterns that favour the growth of an early magnetic field. Heat flux patterns symmetric about the equator produce non-reversing magnetic fields, whereas anti-symmetric patterns produce polarity reversals. Our results may explain the existence of the geodynamo prior to inner core nucleation under a tight energy budget. Furthermore, in order to sustain a strong geomagnetic field, the lower mantle thermal distribution was likely dominantly symmetric about the equator. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Theoretical interpretation on ion heating experiments in reverse field pinch devices

A new set of equations for the energies of the mean magnetic field and the mean plasma velocity is derived taking the dynamo effects into account, by which the anomalous phenomenon, T(i) > T(e), observed in some reversed field pinches (RFP's) is successfully explained.

Scaling laws for planetary dynamos

We propose new scaling laws for the properties of planetary dynamos. In particular, the Rossby number, the magnetic Reynolds number, the ratio of magnetic to kinetic energy, the Ohmic dissipation timescale and the characteristic aspect ratio of the columnar convection cells are all predicted to be power-law functions of two observable quantities: the magnetic dipole moment and the planetary rotation rate. The resulting scaling laws constitute a somewhat modified version of the scalings proposed by Christensen and Aubert. The main difference is that, in view of the small value of the Rossby number in planetary cores, we insist that the non-linear inertial term, uu, is negligible. This changes the exponents in the power-laws which relate the various properties of the fluid dynamo to the planetary dipole moment and rotation rate. Our scaling laws are consistent with the available numerical evidence. © The Authors 2013 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.

财政预测模型研究及应用

采用多种科学预测方法与财政经济实际相结合的方式建立了一个综合的财政收支系统动力学模型．这个模型集中了时间序列分析模型，灰色系统预测模型的参数综合性强和系统动力学模型结构分明，用动态反馈方式预测系统发展变化的特点，对东北两大城市预算内财政收支“八五”计划指标进行了全面定量的预测与分析，得到了很好的应用效果。