Performance evaluation of ventilation radiators

A ventilation radiator is a combined ventilation and heat emission unit currently of interest due to its potential for increasing energy efficiency in exhaust ventilated buildings with warm water heating. This paper presents results of performance tests of several ventilation radiator models conducted under controlled laboratory conditions.   The purpose of the study was to validate results achieved by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in an earlier study and indentify possible improvements in the performance of such systems. The main focus was on heat transfer from internal convection fins, but comfort and health aspects related to ventilation rates and air temperatures were also considered.   The general results from the CFD simulations were confirmed; the heat output of ventilation radiators may be improved by at least 20 % without sacrificing ventilation efficiency or thermal comfort.   Improved thermal efficiency of ventilation radiators allows a lower supply water temperature and energy savings both for heating up and distribution of warm water in heat pumps or district heating systems. A secondary benefit is that a high ventilation rate can be maintained all year around without risk for cold draught.

Pricing and hedging of oil futures : a unifying approach

We develop and empirically test a continuous time equilibrium model for the pricing of oil futures. The model provides a link between no-arbitrage models and expectation oriented models. It highlights the role of inventories for the identification of different pricing regimes. In an empirical study the hedging performance of our model is compared with five other one- and two-factor pricing models. The hedging problem considered is related to Metallgesellschaft´s strategy to hedge long-term forward commitments with short-term futures. The results show that the downside risk distribution of our inventory based model stochastically dominates those of the other models.

Mathematical Optimization Applied to Thermal and Electrical Energy Systems

This Thesis aims at building and discussing mathematical models applications focused on Energy problems, both on the thermal and electrical side. The objective is to show how mathematical programming techniques developed within Operational Research can give useful answers in the Energy Sector, how they can provide tools to support decision making processes of Companies operating in the Energy production and distribution and how they can be successfully used to make simulations and sensitivity analyses to better understand the state of the art and convenience of a particular technology by comparing it with the available alternatives. The first part discusses the fundamental mathematical background followed by a comprehensive literature review about mathematical modelling in the Energy Sector. The second part presents mathematical models for the District Heating strategic network design and incremental network design. The objective is the selection of an optimal set of new users to be connected to an existing thermal network, maximizing revenues, minimizing infrastructure and operational costs and taking into account the main technical requirements of the real world application. Results on real and randomly generated benchmark networks are discussed with particular attention to instances characterized by big networks dimensions. The third part is devoted to the development of linear programming models for optimal battery operation in off-grid solar power schemes, with consideration of battery degradation. The key contribution of this work is the inclusion of battery degradation costs in the optimisation models. As available data on relating degradation costs to the nature of charge/discharge cycles are limited, we concentrate on investigating the sensitivity of operational patterns to the degradation cost structure. The objective is to investigate the combination of battery costs and performance at which such systems become economic. We also investigate how the system design should change when battery degradation is taken into account.

Anatomy of a heating and assessment of critical self-heating parameters

Numerical modelling is a valuable tool for simulating the fundamental processes that take place during a heating. The models presented in this paper have enabled a quantitative assessment of the effects of initial pile temperature, pile size and mass and coal particle size on the development of a heating. All of these parameters have a certain criticality in the coal self-heating process.

A Public-Private Partnership strukturális modelljeinek összevetése = Comparison of Public-Private Partnership models

A tanulmány a PPP különböző strukturális modelljeinek csoportosítását mutatja be, az egyes típusok rövid rendszerező áttekintésével. A tipológiák vizsgálata hasznos ahhoz, hogy a PPP projektek struktúrájának kialakításakor a különböző lehetőségeket mérlegelni tudjuk. Többféle megközelítésben lehet a modelleket tipizálni. Az együttműködés célja alapján a hatékonyság-, a minőség- és a finanszírozás-orientált modellek a legelterjedtebbek, a kockázatmegosztás módja alapján BOT, DBFO és koncessziós változatok, a haszonmegosztás szabályozása alapján árplafon-szabályozású, közvetlen haszonszabályozású, fixdíjas és árnyékáras megoldások a leginkább bevettek. A tanulmány ezek elemző bemutatása alapján arra a következtetésre jut, hogy a gyakorlati megoldások a legtöbb esetben az elméleti típusok valamilyen kombinációját tartalmazzák, a konkrét eset feltételeinek megfelelően. Így a gyakorlatban a fix tipológiák helyett alkalmasabb úgy megközelítenünk a PPP-t, mint egy folyamatosan változó, a helyi igényekhez idomuló jelenséget. A haszonszabályozó tipológia kapcsán a tanulmány melléklete rövid áttekintést nyújt a PPP esetében kritikus méltányos haszon becslésének lehetséges megoldásairól is. = This study shows a categorization of the different structural models of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. The typologies are useful to assess the available options when decisions on PPP project structures are made. There are different categorizing aspects. Based ont he key purpose of the partnership there are efficiency, quality and financing focused models. From a risk sharing point of view, BOT, DBFO and concession models are most typical. Regarding the regulation of returns price-cap models, ’open book’ models, fixed price and shadow pricing models are most common. Based on the analytical assessment of these, they study concludes that actual projects are mostly a combination of theoretical types, as required by the given case. Therefore in practice, it is more appropriate to approach PPP projects as a constantly shaping concept, adjustable to particular conditions. Supporting the approaches to the regulation of returns, an appendix of the study summarizes the different methods to estimate fair returns, a critical issue in PPP projects.

Three essays on asset pricing

In this dissertation, I investigate three related topics on asset pricing: the consumption-based asset pricing under long-run risks and fat tails, the pricing of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) options and the market price of risk embedded in stock returns and stock options. These three topics are fully explored in Chapter II through IV. Chapter V summarizes the main conclusions. In Chapter II, I explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. I estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. I find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can, without resorting to high risk aversion, generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. In Chapter III, I examine the pricing performance of VIX option models. The contention that simpler-is-better is supported by the empirical evidence using actual VIX option market data. I find that no model has small pricing errors over the entire range of strike prices and times to expiration. In general, Whaley’s Black-like option model produces the best overall results, supporting the simpler-is-better contention. However, the Whaley model does under/overprice out-of-the-money call/put VIX options, which is contrary to the behavior of stock index option pricing models. In Chapter IV, I explore risk pricing through a model of time-changed Lvy processes based on the joint evidence from individual stock options and underlying stocks. I specify a pricing kernel that prices idiosyncratic and systematic risks. This approach to examining risk premia on stocks deviates from existing studies. The empirical results show that the market pays positive premia for idiosyncratic and market jump-diffusion risk, and idiosyncratic volatility risk. However, there is no consensus on the premium for market volatility risk. It can be positive or negative. The positive premium on idiosyncratic risk runs contrary to the implications of traditional capital asset pricing theory.

Three Essays on Asset Pricing

In this dissertation, I investigate three related topics on asset pricing: the consumption-based asset pricing under long-run risks and fat tails, the pricing of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) options and the market price of risk embedded in stock returns and stock options. These three topics are fully explored in Chapter II through IV. Chapter V summarizes the main conclusions. In Chapter II, I explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. I estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. I find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can, without resorting to high risk aversion, generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. In Chapter III, I examine the pricing performance of VIX option models. The contention that simpler-is-better is supported by the empirical evidence using actual VIX option market data. I find that no model has small pricing errors over the entire range of strike prices and times to expiration. In general, Whaley’s Black-like option model produces the best overall results, supporting the simpler-is-better contention. However, the Whaley model does under/overprice out-of-the-money call/put VIX options, which is contrary to the behavior of stock index option pricing models. In Chapter IV, I explore risk pricing through a model of time-changed Lévy processes based on the joint evidence from individual stock options and underlying stocks. I specify a pricing kernel that prices idiosyncratic and systematic risks. This approach to examining risk premia on stocks deviates from existing studies. The empirical results show that the market pays positive premia for idiosyncratic and market jump-diffusion risk, and idiosyncratic volatility risk. However, there is no consensus on the premium for market volatility risk. It can be positive or negative. The positive premium on idiosyncratic risk runs contrary to the implications of traditional capital asset pricing theory.

ClimateWell TDC with District Heat

The PolySMART demonstration system SP1b has been modeled in TRNSYS and calibrated against monitored data. The system is an example of distributed cooling with centralized CHP, where the driving heat is delivered via the district heating network. The system pre-cools the cooling water for the head office of Borlänge municipality, for which the main cooling is supplied by a 200 kW compression chiller. The SP1b system thus provides pre-cooling. It consists of ClimateWell TDC with nominal capacity of 10 kW together with a dry cooler for recooling and heat exchangers in the cooling and driving circuits. The cooling system is only operated from 06:00 to 17:00 during working days, and the cooling season is generally from mid May to mid September. The nominal operating conditions of the main chiller are 12/15°C. The main aims of this simulation study were to: reduce the electricity consumption, and if possible to improve the thermal COP and capacity at the same time; and to study how the system would perform with different boundary conditions such as climate and load. The calibration of the system model was made in three stages: estimation of parameters based on manufacturer data and dimensions of the system; calibration of each circuit (pipes and heat exchangers) separately using steady state point; and finally calibration of the complete model in terms of thermal and electrical energy as well as running times, for a five day time series of data with one minute average data values. All the performance figures were with 3% of the measured values apart from the running time for the driving circuit that was 4% different. However, the performance figures for this base case system for the complete cooling season of mid-May to midSeptember were significantly better than those for the monitoring data. This was attributed to long periods when the monitored system was not in operation and due to a control parameter that hindered cold delivery at certain times. 

Added value from biomass by broader utilization of fuels and CHP plants

The present work, where additional value-creating processes in existing combined heat and power (CHP) structures have been examined, is motivated by a political- and consumer-driven strive towards a bioeconomy and a stagnation for the existing business models in large parts of the CHP sector. The research is based on cases where the integration of flash pyrolysis for co-production of bio-oil, co-gasification for production of fuel gas and synthetic biofuels as well as leaching of extractable fuel components in existing CHP plants have been simulated. In particular, this work has focused on the CHP plants that utilize boilers of fluidized bed (FB) type, where the concept of coupling a separate FB reactor to the FB of the boiler forms an important basis for the analyses. In such dual fluidized bed (DFB) technology, heat is transferred from the boiler to the new rector that is operating with other fluidization media than air, thereby enabling other thermochemical processes than combustion to take place. The result of this work shows that broader operations at existing CHP plants have the potential to enable production of significant volumes of chemicals and/or fuels with high efficiency, while maintaining heat supply to external customers. Based on the insight that the technical preconditions for a broader operation are favourable, the motivation and ability among the incumbents in the Swedish CHP sector to participate in a transition of their operation towards a biorefinery was examined. The result of this assessment showed that the incumbents believe that a broader operation can create significant values for their own operations, the society and the environment, but that they lack both a strong motivation as well as important abilities to move into the new technological fields. If the concepts of broader production are widely implemented in the Swedish FB based CHP sector, this can substantially contribute in the transition towards a bioeconomy.

Good deals in markets with frictions

This paper studies a portfolio choice problem such that the pricing rule may incorporate transaction costs and the risk measure is coherent and expectation bounded. We will prove the necessity of dealing with pricing rules such that there exists an essentially bounded stochastic discount factor, which must be also bounded from below by a strictly positive value. Otherwise good deals will be available to traders, i.e., depending on the selected risk measure, investors can build portfolios whose (risk, return) will be as close as desired to (−infinity, infinity) or (0, infinity). This pathologic property still holds for vector risk measures (i.e., if we minimize a vector valued function whose components are risk measures). It is worthwhile to point out that essentially bounded stochastic discount factors are not usual in financial literature. In particular, the most famous frictionless, complete and arbitrage free pricing models imply the existence of good deals for every coherent and expectation bounded (scalar or vector) measure of risk, and the incorporation of transaction costs will not guarantee the solution of this caveat.

The impact of family control on firm's return

Family firm is a field of growing interest. The aim of this article is to understand whether CEOs identity impacts family firm’s stock returns. From a sample of Portuguese and Spanish family firms findings show that who manages the firms result in significantly different risk exposure. Moreover, we find that the abnormal return found by Fahlenbrach (2009) to founder-controlled firms disappear when we use valueweighted portfolios and include two new factors: market aggregate illiquidity and debt intensity to the four-factor Carhart model. Finally, our results explain why the majority of family firm is controlled by its founder.

DYNAMOD – A dynamic agent based modelling framework for digital businesses

Digital Businesses have become a major driver for economic growth and have seen an explosion of new startups. At the same time, it also includes mature enterprises that have become global giants in a relatively short period of time. Digital Businesses have unique characteristics that make the running and management of a Digital Business much different from traditional offline businesses. Digital businesses respond to online users who are highly interconnected and networked. This enables a rapid flow of word of mouth, at a pace far greater than ever envisioned when dealing with traditional products and services. The relatively low cost of incremental user addition has led to a variety of innovation in pricing of digital products, including various forms of free and freemium pricing models. This thesis explores the unique characteristics and complexities of Digital Businesses and its implications on the design of Digital Business Models and Revenue Models. The thesis proposes an Agent Based Modeling Framework that can be used to develop Simulation Models that simulate the complex dynamics of Digital Businesses and the user interactions between users of a digital product. Such Simulation models can be used for a variety of purposes such as simple forecasting, analysing the impact of market disturbances, analysing the impact of changes in pricing models and optimising the pricing for maximum revenue generation or a balance between growth in usage and revenue generation. These models can be developed for a mature enterprise with a large historical record of user growth rate as well as for early stage enterprises without much historical data. Through three case studies, the thesis demonstrates the applicability of the Framework and its potential applications.

Avaluació de l'aprofitament energètic de la biomassa forestal del Parc de Collserola

En aquest treball se sintetitzen els resultats més destacats del projecte de final de carrera de la llicenciatura de Ciències Ambientals sobre l’aprofitament de la biomassa forestal al Parc de Collserola (PCo), realitzat a la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB). L’objectiu principal és determinar la disponibilitat de biomassa forestal susceptible a ser extreta del PCo a fi d’aprofitar-la per a l’obtenció d’energia. Els principals factors analitzats són: la producció anual per cada espècie, les limitacions que marquen l’explotació i la tecnologia aplicable per a l’aprofitament en tres possibles escenaris. La proposta d’explotació sostenible dels boscos del PCo s’efectua sobre les espècies de Pinus halepensis, Quercus ilex i Quercus cerrioides, que presenten una producció major de biomassa susceptible a ser aprofitada, 5.500, 4.000 i 300 t psa1/any, respectivament. Per tant, la biomassa extraïble de forma sostenible al PCo s’estima en aproximadament 9.700 tones/any. L’estudi de l’aprofitament forestal està marcat per limitacions d’extracció, tals com les limitacions silvícoles (zones amb una cobertura arbòria igual o superior al 70% i un pendent igual o inferior al 60%) i d’accessibilitat (franges de 25 metres a banda i banda de les vies forestals). Amb la quantitat de biomassa extraïble es poden establir diferents escenaris d’aplicació energètica, mitjançant la seva combustió en calderes amb diverses potències de funcionament. Des del nivell domèstic (calderes domèstiques) fins al d’una gran planta (cogeneració), passant per l’aplicació en un barri residencial (District Heating). D’aquesta manera s’obté energia tèrmica, per calefacció, o elèctrica, aplicable a residències individuals, a barris residencials o a polígons industrials. S’ha escollit l’escenari de District Heating com el més viable, ja que és el que més avantatges presenta dintre del context del parc i un ventall de possibilitats d’aplicació més elevat. Per determinar-ne la viabilitat, s’han integrat diversos aspectes: tecnològics (eficiència, producció energètica, tipus de combustible i requeriment de biomassa), ambientals (impactes generats), socials (percepció dels usuaris) i econòmics (llocs de treball generats i viabilitat econòmica).

Understanding portfolio efficiency with conditioning information

We show that unconditionally efficient returns do not achieve the maximum unconditionalSharpe ratio, neither display zero unconditional Jensen s alphas, when returns arepredictable. Next, we define a new type of efficient returns that is characterized by thoseunconditional properties. We also study a different type of efficient returns that is rationalizedby standard mean-variance preferences and motivates new Sharpe ratios and Jensen salphas. We revisit the testable implications of asset pricing models from the perspective ofthe three sets of efficient returns. We also revisit the empirical evidence on the conditionalvariants of the CAPM and the Fama-French model from a portfolio perspective.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.