Politics in extraordinary times : a study of the reaction of political parties and elites to terrorism

Cette thèse porte sur le comportement des élites politiques durant les périodes de crise nationale et plus particulièrement sur leurs réactions aux attentats terroristes. Elle démontre que les crises terroristes sont tout comme les conflits militaires ou diplomatiques propices aux unions nationales et notamment aux ralliements des partis d’opposition auprès du gouvernement. L’analyse statistique d’actes terroristes s’étant produits dans cinq états démocratiques (Allemagne, Espagne, États-Unis d’Amérique, France et Royaume-Uni) entre 1990 et 2006 révèle que l’ampleur d’un attentat en termes de pertes humaines ainsi que la répétition de ces attentats influencent dans une large mesure la réaction des élites politiques. Ainsi plus l’ampleur d’un attentat est élevée, plus la probabilité d’un ralliement est grande. En revanche, la multiplication des attentats augmente la possibilité de dissension entre l’opposition et le gouvernement. Par ailleurs, l’opposition est plus susceptible de se rallier au gouvernement lorsque l’attentat est perpétré par des terroristes provenant de l’étranger. L’analyse quantitative indique également que l’existence d’un accord formel de coopération dans la lutte antiterroriste entre le gouvernement et l’opposition favorise l’union des élites. Enfin, les données analysées suggèrent que la proportion des ralliements dans les cinq pays est plus importante depuis les attentats du 11 septembre 2001. Une analyse qualitative portant exclusivement sur la France et couvrant la période 1980-2006 confirme la validité des variables identifiées dans la partie quantitative, mais suggère que les élites réagissent au nombre total de victimes (morts mais aussi blessés) et que la répétition des actes terroristes a moins d’impact lors des vagues d’attentats. Par ailleurs, les analyses de cas confirment que les élites politiques françaises sont plus susceptibles de se rallier quand un attentat vise un haut-fonctionnaire de l’État. Il apparaît également que les rivalités et rancœurs politiques propre à la France (notamment suite à l’arrivée de la gauche au pouvoir en 1981) ont parfois empêché le ralliement des élites. Enfin, cette analyse qualitative révèle que si l’extrême gauche française soutient généralement le gouvernement, qu’il soit de gauche ou de droite, en période de crise terroriste, l’extrême droite en revanche saisit quasi systématiquement l’opportunité offerte par l’acte terroriste pour critiquer le gouvernement ainsi que les partis de l’establishment. La thèse est divisée en sept chapitres. Le premier chapitre suggère que le comportement des élites politiques en période de crises internationales graves (guerres et conflits diplomatiques) est souvent influencé par la raison d’État et non par l’intérêt électoral qui prédomine lors des périodes plus paisibles. Le second chapitre discute du phénomène terroriste et de la littérature afférente. Le troisième chapitre analyse les causes du phénomène d’union nationale, soumet un cadre pour l’analyse de la réaction des élites aux actes terroristes, et présente une série d’hypothèses. Le quatrième chapitre détaille la méthodologie utilisée au cours de cette recherche. Les chapitres cinq et six présentent respectivement les résultats des analyses quantitatives et qualitatives. Enfin, le chapitre sept conclut cette thèse en résumant la contribution de l’auteur et en suggérant des pistes de recherche.

Effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies

Aims: We conducted a systematic review of studies examining relationships between measures of beverage alcohol tax or price levels and alcohol sales or self-reported drinking. A total of 112 studies of alcohol tax or price effects were found, containing 1003 estimates of the tax/price–consumption relationship. Design: Studies included analyses of alternative outcome measures, varying subgroups of the population, several statistical models, and using different units of analysis. Multiple estimates were coded from each study, along with numerous study characteristics. Using reported estimates, standard errors, t-ratios, sample sizes and other statistics, we calculated the partial correlation for the relationship between alcohol price or tax and sales or drinking measures for each major model or subgroup reported within each study. Random-effects models were used to combine studies for inverse variance weighted overall estimates of the magnitude and significance of the relationship between alcohol tax/price and drinking. Findings: Simple means of reported elasticities are -0.46 for beer, -0.69 for wine and -0.80 for spirits. Meta-analytical results document the highly significant relationships (P < 0.001) between alcohol tax or price measures and indices of sales or consumption of alcohol (aggregate-level r = -0.17 for beer, -0.30 for wine, -0.29 for spirits and -0.44 for total alcohol). Price/tax also affects heavy drinking significantly (mean reported elasticity = -0.28, individual-level r = -0.01, P < 0.01), but the magnitude of effect is smaller than effects on overall drinking. Conclusions: A large literature establishes that beverage alcohol prices and taxes are related inversely to drinking. Effects are large compared to other prevention policies and programs. Public policies that raise prices of alcohol are an effective means to reduce drinking.

In Search of Political Influence: Strategic Choices and Media Coverage of Political Parties, Interest Groups and Social Movements in Western European Countries

Outside lobbying is a key strategy for social movements, interest groups and political parties for mobilising public opinion through the media in order to pressure policymakers and influence the policymaking process. Relying on semi-structured interviews and newspaper content analysis in six Western European countries, this article examines the use of four outside lobbying strategies – media-related activities, informing (about) the public, mobilisation and protest – and the amount of media coverage they attract. While some strategies are systematically less pursued than others, we find variation in their relative share across institutional contexts and actor types. Given that most of these differences are not accurately mirrored in the media, we conclude that media coverage is only loosely connected to outside lobbying behaviour, and that the media respond differently to a given strategy when used by different actors. Thus, the ability of different outside lobbying strategies to generate media coverage critically depends on who makes use of them.

Breakfasts, luncheons, and dinners : how to plan them, how to serve them, how to behave at them : a book for school and home /

Includes samples of menus, nutrition information, etc.

The modern housewife, or, Ménagère : comprising nearly one thousand receipts, for the economic and judicious preparation of every meal of the day : with those of the nursery and sick room, and minute directions for family management in all its branches : illustrated with engravings /

Includes sections on: comforts for invalids, removes, entrees, dishes with the remains of lamb, garniture for omlettes, beverages for evening parties.

New dinners for all occasions : with instructions for formal and informal dinner service /

Includes dinner recipes and sample-menus for Sunday and holidays.

Development of a controlled drinking self-efficacy scale and appraising its relation to alcohol dependence

There is no specific self-efficacy measure that has been developed primarily for problem drinkers seeking a moderation drinking goal. In this article, we report the factor structure of a 20-item Controlled Drinking Self-Efficacy Scale (CDSES Sitharthan et al., 1996; Sitharthan et al., 1997). The results indicate that the CDSES is highly reliable, and the factor analysis using the full sample identified four factors: negative affect, positive mood/social context, frequency of drinking, and consumption quantity. A similar factor structure was obtained for the subsample of men. In contrast, only three factors emerged in the analysis of data on female participants. Compared to women, men had low self-efficacy to control their drinking in situations relating to positive mood/social context, and subjects with high alcohol dependence had low self-efficacy for situations relating to negative affect, social situations, and drinking less frequently. The CDSES can be a useful measure in treatment programs providing a moderation drinking goal. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Political parties and trade unions in the post-communist Poland:class politics that have never a chance to happen

Trade unions in Poland have not built the stable and long-term relations with political parties as are observed in Western democracies. By analysing the historical and symbolic background of the transformation to a democratic civil society and free market economy, political preferences of working class, trade union membership rates, and public opinion polls, we argue that, in case of Poland, the initial links between political parties and trade unions weakened over time. Polish trade unions never had a chance to become a long-term intermediary between society and political parties, making the Polish case study a double exception from the traditional models.

State Political Parties in American Politics: Innovation and Integration in the Party System

What role do state party organizations play in twenty-first century American politics? What is the nature of the relationship between the state and national party organizations in contemporary elections? These questions frame the three studies presented in this dissertation. More specifically, I examine the organizational development of the state party organizations and the strategic interactions and connections between the state and national party organizations in contemporary elections.

In the first empirical chapter, I argue that the Internet Age represents a significant transitional period for state party organizations. Using data collected from surveys of state party leaders, this chapter reevaluates and updates existing theories of party organizational strength and demonstrates the importance of new indicators of party technological capacity to our understanding of party organizational development in the early twenty-first century. In the second chapter, I ask whether the national parties utilize different strategies in deciding how to allocate resources to state parties through fund transfers and through the 50-state-strategy party-building programs that both the Democratic and Republican National Committees advertised during the 2010 elections. Analyzing data collected from my 2011 state party survey and party-fund-transfer data collected from the Federal Election Commission, I find that the national parties considered a combination of state and national electoral concerns in directing assistance to the state parties through their 50-state strategies, as opposed to the strict battleground-state strategy that explains party fund transfers. In my last chapter, I examine the relationships between platforms issued by Democratic and Republican state and national parties and the strategic considerations that explain why state platforms vary in their degree of similarity to the national platform. I analyze an extensive platform dataset, using cluster analysis and document similarity measures to compare platform content across the 1952 to 2014 period. The analysis shows that, as a group, Democratic and Republican state platforms exhibit greater intra-party homogeneity and inter-party heterogeneity starting in the early 1990s, and state-national platform similarity is higher in states that are key players in presidential elections, among other factors. Together, these three studies demonstrate the significance of the state party organizations and the state-national party partnership in contemporary politics.

(MIS)PERCEIVED DRINKING NORMS AND HAZARDOUS DRINKING BEHAVIOURS IN UNIVERSITY FIRST-YEAR UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS AND THE EFFECTS OF GENDER

Purpose: Across Canada, undergraduate university students are one of the highest alcohol-consuming populations. Many students engage in hazardous drinking and are at risk for negative health and social consequences. Social Norms Theory suggests that students’ overestimation of drinking norms can result in an increase in their drinking behaviour. As of yet, none of the literature addresses the possible link between drinking norm (mis)perception and hazardous drinking in a Canadian undergraduate context. This is the first Canadian study to examine this potential association in first-year undergraduate students across multiple universities using gender as an effect modifier. Methods: Using data collected by the Caring Campus Project, for 2347 first-year students from three Canadian universities, I evaluated the prevalence of drinking norm misperceptions by site and gender. Using multiple-logistic regression models, I analyzed the relationship between misperceived drinking norms and hazardous drinking behaviours (assessed via AUDIT-C). Results: The proportion of students who overestimated drinking and binge drinking frequency norms varied by site and gender. There was a positive relationship between overestimated drinking/ binge drinking frequency norms and hazardous drinking, modified by gender. Controlling for living arrangement and site, the odds of female students being hazardous drinkers increased by a factor of 2.27 (CI: 1.73-2.99) when the drinking frequency norm was overestimated. A non-significant association was found for male students. Among female students, when living arrangement and site were controlled, the odds of being a hazardous drinker were 1.83 (0.84-3.95) and 2.69 (1.24-5.83) times greater when the drinking frequency norm was perceived at “2-4 times per month” and “2 or more times per week”, respectively. Among male students, when living arrangement, previous residence and site were controlled, the odds of being a hazardous drinker were 4.03 (2.62-6.19) and 8.54 (5.41-13.49) times greater when the binge drinking frequency norm was perceived at “2-4 times per month” and “2 or more times per week”, respectively. Conclusion: This novel study enhances the understanding of the association between (mis)perceived drinking norms and drinking behaviours in Canadian undergraduate students. The demonstrated importance of gender and site provides a strong impetus for Canadian universities to develop targeted alcohol reduction interventions.

New Political Parties as Innovators - Formation and Success

This cumulative dissertation investigates the formation and success of new political parties in developed democracies from the perspective of the programmatic competition between parties (see. introduction in chapter 1). It starts by arguing that the current state of the programmatic supply by existing parties is a central determinant for the likelihood of new party formation (chapter 2). A low programmatic diversity of existing parties creates scope for programmatic innovations by new parties. The dissertation establishes a connection between the literature on new parties and niche parties by analyzing the latter as typical cases of innovating new parties (chapter 3). For this purpose, the author combines two concepts with corresponding measures in order to capture the programmatic profiles of parties. Nicheness refers to differences in the emphasis of topics between a given party and its counterparts while programmatic concentration shows the narrowness of a given policy profile. Chapter 4 investigates how the variation in the programmatic profiles of niche parties affect their long-term electoral performance. Previous studies on niche parties have not fully taken into account the evolutionary aspect of the programmatic profiles of these parties. Acknowledging the variation in programmatic profiles between niche parties and over time, the article argues that the electoral effects of nicheness and programmatic concentration as programmatic features of niche parties vary over their lifecycle. The literature on new parties assumes that they can benefit from the poor representation of parts of the electorate by existing parties. This strand of research provides plausible results, but it operates on the macro level, which is problematic for theoretical and methodological reasons. The study in chapter 5 overcomes these problems through a multilevel analysis of the vote choice between new parties, existing parties and abstention.

Contaminants of emerging concern in drinking water: assessment of the effectiveness of removal by drinking water treatments and possible risks to human health

Contaminants of emerging concern are increasingly detected in the water cycle, with endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) receiving attention due to their potential to cause adverse health effects even at low concentrations. Although the EU has recently introduced some EDCs into drinking water legislation, most drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) are not designed to remove EDCs, making their detection and removal in DWTPs an important challenge. The aim of this doctoral project was to investigate hormones and phenolic compounds as suspected EDCs in drinking waters across the Romagna area (Italy). The main objectives were to assess the occurrence of considered contaminants in source and drinking water from three DWTPs, characterize the effectiveness of removal by different water treatment processes, and evaluate the potential biological impact on drinking water and human health. Specifically, a complementary approach of target chemical analysis and effect-based methods was adopted to explore drinking water quality, treatment efficacy, and biological potential. This study found that nonylphenol (NP) was prevalent in all samples, followed by BPA. Sporadic contamination of hormones was found only in source waters. Although the measured EDC concentrations in drinking water did not exceed threshold guideline values, the potential role of DWTPs as an additional source of EDC contamination should be considered. Significant increases in BPA and NP levels were observed during water treatment steps, which were also reflected in estrogenic and mutagenic responses in water samples after the ultrafiltration. This highlights the need to monitor water quality during various treatment processes to improve the efficiency of DWTPs. Biological assessments on finished water did not reveal any bioactivity, except for few treated water samples that exhibited estrogenic responses. Overall, the data emphasize the high quality of produced drinking water and the value of applying integrated chemical analysis and in vitro bioassays for water quality assessment.

Explaining sleep duration in adolescents: the impact of socio-demographic and lifestyle factors and working status

Previous studies found students who both work and attend school undergo a partial sleep deprivation that accumulates across the week. The aim of the present study was to obtain information using a questionnaire on a number of variables (e.g., socio-demographics, lifestyle, work timing, and sleep-wake habits) considered to impact on sleep duration of working (n=51) and non-working (n=41) high-school students aged 14-21 yrs old attending evening classes (19:00-22:30 h) at a public school in the city of So Paulo, Brazil. Data were collected for working days and days off. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to assess the factors associated with sleep duration on weekdays and weekends. Work, sex, age, smoking, consumption of alcohol and caffeine, and physical activity were considered control variables. Significant predictors of sleep duration were: work (p < 0.01), daily work duration (8-10 h/day; p < 0.01), sex (p=0.04), age 18-21 yrs (0.01), smoking (p=0.02) and drinking habits (p=0.03), irregular physical exercise (p < 0.01), ease of falling asleep (p=0.04), and the sleep-wake cycle variables of napping (p < 0.01), nocturnal awakenings (p < 0.01), and mid-sleep regularity (p < 0.01). The results confirm the hypotheses that young students who work and attend school showed a reduction in night-time sleep duration. Sleep deprivation across the week, particularly in students working 8-10 h/day, is manifested through a sleep rebound (i.e., extended sleep duration) on Saturdays. However, the different roles played by socio-demographic and lifestyle variables have proven to be factors that intervene with nocturnal sleep duration. ) The variables related to the sleep-wake cycle naps and night awakenings proved to be associated with a slight reduction in night-time sleep, while regularity in sleep and wake-up schedules was shown to be associated with more extended sleep duration, with a distinct expression along the week and the weekend. Having to attend school and work, coupled with other socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, creates an unfavorable scenario for satisfactory sleep duration

Body mass index and risk of head and neck cancer in a pooled analysis of case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium

Methods We pooled data from 17 case-control studies including 12 716 cases and the 17 438 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for associations between body mass index (BMI) at different ages and HNC risk, adjusted for age, sex, centre, race, education, tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Results Adjusted ORs (95% CIs) were elevated for people with BMI at reference (date of diagnosis for cases and date of selection for controls) < 18.5 kg/m(2) (2.13, 1.75-2.58) and reduced for BMI > 25.0-30.0 kg/m(2) (0.52, 0.44-0.60) and BMI >= 30 kg/m(2) (0.43, 0.33-0.57), compared with BMI > 18.5-25.0 kg/m(2). These associations did not differ by age, sex, tumour site or control source. Although the increased risk among people with BMI < 18.5 kg/m(2) was not modified by tobacco smoking or alcohol drinking, the inverse association for people with BMI > 25 kg/m(2) was present only in smokers and drinkers. Conclusions In our large pooled analysis, leanness was associated with increased HNC risk regardless of smoking and drinking status, although reverse causality cannot be excluded. The reduced risk among overweight or obese people may indicate body size is a modifier of the risk associated with smoking and drinking. Further clarification may be provided by analyses of prospective cohort and mechanistic studies.

An examination of male and female odds ratios by BMI, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption for cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx in pooled data from 15 case-control studies

Greater tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption and lower body mass index (BMI) increase odds ratios (OR) for oral cavity, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers; however, there are no comprehensive sex-specific comparisons of ORs for these factors. We analyzed 2,441 oral cavity (925 women and 1,516 men), 2,297 oropharynx (564 women and 1,733 men), 508 hypopharynx (96 women and 412 men), and 1,740 larynx (237 women and 1,503 men) cases from the INHANCE consortium of 15 head and neck cancer case-control studies. Controls numbered from 7,604 to 13,829 subjects, depending on analysis. Analyses fitted linear-exponential excess ORs models. ORs were increased in underweight (< 18.5 BMI) relative to normal weight (18.5-24.9) and reduced in overweight and obese categories (a parts per thousand yen25 BMI) for all sites and were homogeneous by sex. ORs by smoking and drinking in women compared with men were significantly greater for oropharyngeal cancer (p < 0.01 for both factors), suggestive for hypopharyngeal cancer (p = 0.05 and p = 0.06, respectively), but homogeneous for oral cavity (p = 0.56 and p = 0.64) and laryngeal (p = 0.18 and p = 0.72) cancers. The extent that OR modifications of smoking and drinking by sex for oropharyngeal and, possibly, hypopharyngeal cancers represent true associations, or derive from unmeasured confounders or unobserved sex-related disease subtypes (e.g., human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer) remains to be clarified.