Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.

Cost-benefit analysis of climate change – A methodological overview of recent studies

Global warming16 has already begun. Climate change has become a self-propelling and self-reinforcing process as a result of the externality associated with greenhouse- gas (GHG) emissions. Although it is an externality related to humankind, according to a number of unique features we should distinguish it from other externalities. Climate change is a global phenomenon in its causes and consequences. The long-term and persistent impacts of climate change will likely continue over centuries without further anthropogenic mechanism. The preindustrial (equilibrium) level of GHG concentration in the atmosphere cannot be restored since it is irreversible, but if we do not stabilise the actual level of atmospheric concentration, the situation will become much worse than it is now. Assessing the impacts of climate change requires careful considerations because of the pervasive uncertainties and risks associated with it.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change (a Methodological Overview of Recent Studies)

This paper examines the methodological aspect of climate change, particularly the aggregation of costs and benefits induced by climate change on individuals, societies, economies and on the whole ecosystem. Assessing the total and/or marginal costs of environmental change is difficult because of wide range of factors that have to be involved. The subsequent study tries to capture the complexity of cost assessment on climate change therefore includes several critical factors such as scenarios and modeling, valuation and estimation, equity and discounting.

A Hard Bargain? A cost-benefit analysis of an improved cookstove program in India

In developing countries, access to modern energy for cooking and heating still remains a challenge to raising households out of poverty. About 2.5 billion people depend on solid fuels such as biomass, wood, charcoal and animal dung. The use of solid fuels has negative outcomes for health, the environment and economic development (Universal Energy Access, UNDP). In low income countries, 1.3 million deaths occur due to indoor smoke or air pollution from burning solid fuels in small, confined and unventilated kitchens or homes. In addition, pollutants such as black carbon, methane and ozone, emitted when burning inefficient fuels, are responsible for a fraction of the climate change and air pollution. There are international efforts to promote the use of clean cookstoves in developing countries but limited evidence on the economic benefits of such distribution programs. This study undertook a systematic economic evaluation of a program that distributed subsidized improved cookstoves to rural households in India. The evaluation examined the effect of different levels of subsidies on the net benefits to the household and to society. This paper answers the question, “Ex post, what are the economic benefits to various stakeholders of a program that distributed subsidized improved cookstoves?” In addressing this question, the evaluation used empirical data from India applied to a cost-benefit model to examine how subsidies affect the costs and the benefits of the biomass improved cookstove and the electric improved cookstove to different stakeholders.

The role of muscarinic cholinergic signaling in cost-benefit decision making

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF A 25% RPS IN MICHIGAN

Michigan depends heavily on fossil fuels to generate electricity. Compared with fossil fuels, electricity generation from renewable energy produces less pollutants emissions. A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a mandate that requires electric utilities to generate a certain amount of electricity from renewable energy sources. This thesis applies the Cost-Benefits Analysis (CBA) method to investigate the impacts of implementing a 25% in Michigan by 2025. It is found that a 25% RPS will create about $20.12 billion in net benefits to the State. Moreover, if current tax credit policies will not change until 2025, its net present value will increase to about $26.59 billion. Based on the results of this CBA, a 25% RPS should be approved. The result of future studies on the same issue can be improved if more state specific data become available.

Legal and political regulation of higher education in Portugal: an evolutionary perspective on the current policy issues and the problem of order

The higher education system in Europe is currently under stress and the debates over its reform and future are gaining momentum. Now that, for most countries, we are in a time for change, in the overall society and the whole education system, the legal and political dimensions have gained prominence, which has not been followed by a more integrative approach of the problem of order, its reform and the issue of regulation, beyond the typical static and classical cost-benefit analyses. The two classical approaches for studying (and for designing the policy measures of) the problem of the reform of the higher education system - the cost-benefit analysis and the legal scholarship description - have to be integrated. This is the argument of our paper that the very integration of economic and legal approaches, what Warren Samuels called the legal-economic nexus, is meaningful and necessary, especially if we want to address the problem of order (as formulated by Joseph Spengler) and the overall regulation of the system. On the one hand, and without neglecting the interest and insights gained from the cost-benefit analysis, or other approaches of value for money assessment, we will focus our study on the legal, social and political aspects of the regulation of the higher education system and its reform in Portugal. On the other hand, the economic and financial problems have to be taken into account, but in a more inclusive way with regard to the indirect and other socio-economic costs not contemplated in traditional or standard assessments of policies for the tertiary education sector. In the first section of the paper, we will discuss the theoretical and conceptual underpinning of our analysis, focusing on the evolutionary approach, the role of critical institutions, the legal-economic nexus and the problem of order. All these elements are related to the institutional tradition, from Veblen and Commons to Spengler and Samuels. The second section states the problem of regulation in the higher education system and the issue of policy formulation for tackling the problem. The current situation is clearly one of crisis with the expansion of the cohorts of young students coming to an end and the recurrent scandals in private institutions. In the last decade, after a protracted period of extension or expansion of the system, i. e., the continuous growth of students, universities and other institutions are competing harder to gain students and have seen their financial situation at risk. It seems that we are entering a period of radical uncertainty, higher competition and a new configuration that is slowly building up is the growth in intensity, which means upgrading the quality of the higher learning and getting more involvement in vocational training and life-long learning. With this change, and along with other deep ones in the Portuguese society and economy, the current regulation has shown signs of maladjustment. The third section consists of our conclusions on the current issue of regulation and policy challenge. First, we underline the importance of an evolutionary approach to a process of change that is essentially dynamic. A special attention will be given to the issues related to an evolutionary construe of policy analysis and formulation. Second, the integration of law and economics, through the notion of legal economic nexus, allows us to better define the issues of regulation and the concrete problems that the universities are facing. One aspect is the instability of the political measures regarding the public administration and on which the higher education system depends financially, legally and institutionally, to say the least. A corollary is the lack of clear strategy in the policy reforms. Third, our research criticizes several studies, such as the one made by the OECD in late 2006 for the Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education, for being too static and neglecting fundamental aspects of regulation such as the logic of actors, groups and organizations who are major players in the system. Finally, simply changing the legal rules will not necessary per se change the behaviors that the authorities want to change. By this, we mean that it is not only remiss of the policy maker to ignore some of the critical issues of regulation, namely the continuous non-respect by academic management and administrative bodies of universities of the legal rules that were once promulgated. Changing the rules does not change the problem, especially without the necessary debates form the different relevant quarters that make up the higher education system. The issues of social interaction remain as intact. Our treatment of the matter will be organized in the following way. In the first section, the theoretical principles are developed in order to be able to study more adequately the higher education transformation with a modest evolutionary theory and a legal and economic nexus of the interactions of the system and the policy challenges. After describing, in the second section, the recent evolution and current working of the higher education in Portugal, we will analyze the legal framework and the current regulatory practices and problems in light of the theoretical framework adopted. We will end with some conclusions on the current problems of regulation and the policy measures that are discusses in recent years.

Assessing e-procurement System for Improving the Purchasing Operations

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli luoda suunnitelma elektronisen hankintatoimen aloittamiseksi, analysoimalla nykyisiä ostoprosesseja ja konsernin laajuista elektronista hankintajärjestelmää. Työ pohjautuu yritysten väliseen elektroniseen kauppaan, elektroniseen hankintatoimeen ja systeemisuunnitteluun liittyvään kirjallisuuteen. Työssä tehdyn suunnitelman tarkoituksena on auttaa Siemens Oy:tä siirtymään uuteen elektroniseen ostotoimintaan. Elektroniselle ostotoiminnalle suunniteltiin tavoitteet ja näitä vastaavat vaatimukset. Elektronisen hankintajärjestelmän analysointi perustuu kirjallisuudessa esitettyihin järjestelmän elinkaari-mallin vaiheisiin. Analysoinnin tarkoituksena oli saada selville järjestelmän soveltuvuus Siemens Oy: n liiketoimintaympäristöön, prosesseihin ja vaatimuksiin. Elektronisen hankintatoiminnan etuja ovat liiketoiminta prosessien johtamisen parantuminen, kustannusten väheneminen sekä taloudellisen suorituskyvyn lisääntyminen. Elektronisen hankintatoiminnan aloittaminen vaatii kuitenkin huolellista suunnittelua. Työssä tehdyt suunnitelmat ja analysoinnit auttavat arvioidessa järjestelmän sopivuutta Siemens Oy: n vaatimuksiin. Oikean ja toimivan järjestelmän valinta ei kuitenkaan takaa elektronisesta hankintatoiminnasta hyötymistä. Tärkeimpiä jatkotoimenpiteitä onkin suorittaa kustannus/hyöty analyysi ja arvioida toimittajien halukkuutta ja kykyjä osallistua markkinapaikkaan.

The 'direct costs' of livestock disease: The development of a system of models for the analysis of 30 endemic livestock diseases in Great Britain

The 'direct costs' attributable to 30 different endemic diseases of farm animals in Great Britain are estimated using a standardised method to construct a simple model for each disease that includes consideration of disease prevention and treatment costs. The models so far developed provide a basis for further analyses including cost-benefit analyses for the economic assessment of disease control options. The approach used reflects the inherent livestock disease information constraints, which limit the application of other economic analytical methods. It is a practical and transparent approach that is relatively easily communicated to veterinary scientists and policy makers. The next step is to develop the approach by incorporating wider economic considerations into the analyses in a way that will demonstrate to policy makers and others the importance of an economic perspective to livestock disease issues.

Crocodiles in the regulatory swamp: navigating the dangers of outsourcing, SaaS and shadow IT

Corporates are entering the brave new world of the internet and digitization without much regard for the fine print of a growing regulation regime. More traditional outsourcing arrangements are already falling foul of the regulators as rules and supervision intensifies. Furthermore, ‘shadow IT’ is proliferating as the attractions of SaaS, mobile, cloud services, social media, and endless new ‘apps’ drive usage outside corporate IT. Initial cost-benefit analyses of the Cloud make such arrangements look immediately attractive but losing control of architecture, security, applications and deployment can have far reaching and damaging regulatory consequences. From research in financial services, this paper details the increasing body of regulations, their inherent risks for businesses and how the dangers can be pre-empted and managed. We then delineate a model for managing these risks specifically focused on investigating, strategizing and governing outsourcing arrangements and related regulatory obligations

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the energy sector in the Caribbean

The present report assesses the economic and social impacts of climate change on the energy sector in Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. In the study, the Artificial Neural Network methodology was employed to model the relationship between climate change and energy demand. The viability of the actions proposed were assessed using cost benefit analyses based on models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the United States of America.

A MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM AND EVALUATION SCHEME FOR THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS EMPLOYEE ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS

Early Employee Assistance Programs (EAPs) had their origin in humanitarian motives, and there was little concern for their cost/benefit ratios; however, as some programs began accumulating data and analyzing it over time, even with single variables such as absenteeism, it became apparent that the humanitarian reasons for a program could be reinforced by cost savings particularly when the existence of the program was subject to justification.^ Today there is general agreement that cost/benefit analyses of EAPs are desirable, but the specific models for such analyses, particularly those making use of sophisticated but simple computer based data management systems, are few.^ The purpose of this research and development project was to develop a method, a design, and a prototype for gathering managing and presenting information about EAPS. This scheme provides information retrieval and analyses relevant to such aspects of EAP operations as: (1) EAP personnel activities, (2) Supervisory training effectiveness, (3) Client population demographics, (4) Assessment and Referral Effectiveness, (5) Treatment network efficacy, (6) Economic worth of the EAP.^ This scheme has been implemented and made operational at The University of Texas Employee Assistance Programs for more than three years.^ Application of the scheme in the various programs has defined certain variables which remained necessary in all programs. Depending on the degree of aggressiveness for data acquisition maintained by program personnel, other program specific variables are also defined. ^