An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Consumers' perceived risk: Sources versus consequences

In this study, we examine an important factor that affects consumers' acceptance of business-to-commerce (B2C) electronic commerce - perceived risk. The objective of this paper is to examine the definition of perceived risk in the context of B2C electronic commerce. The paper highlights the importance of perceived risk and the interwoven relation between perceived risk and trust. It discusses the problem of defining perceived risk in prior B2C research. This study proposes a new classification of consumers' perceived risk based on sources. It highlights the importance of identifying the sources of consumer's risk perceptions in addition to the consequences dimensions. Two focus group discussion sessions were conducted to verify the proposed classification. Results indicate that Internet consumers perceive three sources of risk in B2C electronic commerce: technology, vendor, and product. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of model laws as a starting point for the development of an enforceable international consumer protection regime

This article is concerned primarily with an examination and comparison of select aspects of the model international consumer protection laws proposed by the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), using the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Australia) as a basis for examination and comparison. As a secondary consideration, it also broadly examines the content of, and differences between, the model laws. The motive for this article is that any future enforceable international consumer protection regime (possibly in the form of an international treaty or convention) would need to take into account the UN, EU and OECD guidelines. A cross-comparison of those model laws, and a comparison of them with the consumer protection provisions of a well established national consumer protection law, should provide a useful starting point for the development of such a regime. The 'select aspects' of the model laws in question are the various provisions of those laws which could relate to situations involving the wrong delivery or non-delivery of goods.

Displaying the future: Techno-nationalism and the rise of the consumer in postwar Japan

This paper explains how, in the aftermath of World War II, a type of techno-nationalism emerged that linked being Japanese to science and technology and the increased consumption of electrical appliances. By closely examining official exhibitions, we can see how the state and private sector strongly encouraged this techno-scientific dreaming. Dazzling displays highlighted how the peaceful atom would help lead the nation to achieve high economic growth. At the same time, through the judicious purchase of labor saving appliances, consumers could reconcile the need to spend with the need to save.

Profiling consumer behaviour in cross-border tourism destinations

Tourism is a phenomenon that moves millions of people around the world, taking as a major driver of the global economy. Such relevance is reflected in the proliferation of studies in the overall area known as tourism, under various perspectives and backgrounds. In the light of such multitude of insights our study aims at gaining a deeper understanding of customer profiling and behavior in cross-border tourism destinations. Previous studies conducted in such contexts suggest that cross-border regions (CBRs) are an attractive and desirable idea, yet requiring further theoretical and empirical research. The new configuration of many CBRs calls for a debate on issues concerning its development, raising up important dimensions, such as, organization and planning of common tourism destinations. There is still a gap in the understanding of destination management in CBRs and the customer profile and motivations. Overall this research aims at attaining a deeper understanding of the profile and behavior of consumers in tourism settings, addressing the predisposition for the destination. The study addresses the following research question: “What factors influence customer behavior and attitudes in a CBRs tourism destination?” To address our question we will take an interdisciplinary perspective bringing together inputs from marketing, tourism and local economics. When addressing consumer behavior in tourism previous studies considered the following constructs: involvement, place attachment, satisfaction and destination loyalty. In order to establish the causal relationships in our theoretical model, we intend to develop a predominant quantitative design, yet we plan to conduct exploratory interviews. In the analysis and discussion of results, we intend to use Structural Equation Modeling. It will further allow understanding how the constructs in the research model relate to each other in the specified context. Results are also expected to have managerial implications. Consequently our results may assist decision makers in developing their local policies.

Consumer behavior and profile in cross border tourism destinations

Tourism is a phenomenon that moves millions of people around the world, taking as a major driver of the global economy. Such relevance is reflected in the proliferation of studies in the overall area known as tourism, under various perspectives and backgrounds. In the light of such multitude of insights our study aims at gaining a deeper understanding of customer profiling and behavior in cross-border tourism destinations. Previous studies conducted in such contexts suggest that cross-border regions (CBRs) are an attractive and desirable idea, yet requiring further theoretical and empirical research. The new configuration of many CBRs calls for a debate on issues concerning its development, raising up important dimensions, such as, organization and planning of common tourism destinations. There is still a gap in the understanding of destination management in CBRs and the customer profile and motivations. Overall this research aims at attaining a deeper understanding of the profile and behavior of consumers in tourism settings, addressing the predisposition for the destination. The study addresses the following research question: “What factors influence customer behavior and attitudes in a CBRs tourism destination?” To address our question we will take an interdisciplinary perspective bringing together inputs from marketing, tourism and local economics. When addressing consumer behavior in tourism previous studies considered the following constructs: involvement, place attachment, satisfaction and destination loyalty. In order to establish the causal relationships in our theoretical model, we intend to develop a predominant quantitative design, yet we plan to conduct exploratory interviews. In the analysis and discussion of results, we intend to use Structural Equation Modeling. It will further allow understanding how the constructs in the research model relate to each other in the specified context. Results are also expected to have managerial implications. Consequently our results may assist decision makers in developing their local policies.

Consumer Culture Theory (CCT) já é uma escola de pensamento em marketing?

A década de 1980 trouxe uma visão alternativa à corrente positivista predominante no campo de pesquisa do consumidor: a Consumer Culture Theory (CCT), que assume uma orientação epistemológica baseada no interpretativismo e na pesquisa qualitativa. Diante do destaque alcançado pela CCT, levantou-se a seguinte questão: a CCT já pode ser considerada uma escola de pensamento em marketing autônoma? Pautados em três critérios fundamentais para a qualificação de uma escola de pensamento (reconhecimento acadêmico, corpo de conhecimento e contribuições), foi realizada uma desk research, baseada em periódicos e artigos da área e na construção de um corpus de pesquisa construído com base nas referências contidas no texto seminal Consumer Culture Theory (CCT): twenty years of research. A conclusão é de que a CCT atende aos critérios adotados na presente pesquisa, podendo ser considerada uma escola de pensamento a utônoma dentro do campo de pesquisa do consumo.

Influence of discount price announcements on consumer's behavior

The theoretical framework that underpins this research study is based on the Prospect Theory formulated by Kahneman and Tversky, and Thaler's Mental Accounting Theory. The research aims to evaluate the consumers' behavior when different patterns of discount are offered (in percentage and absolute value and for larger and smaller discounts). Two experiments were conducted to explore these patterns of behavior and the results that were obtained supported the view that the framing effect was a common occurrence. The patterns of choice of individuals in a sample were found to be different due to changes in the ways discounts were offered. This can be explained by the various ways of presenting discount rates that had an impact on the influence of purchase intentions, recommendations and quality perception.

Multilevel and multidimensional scale for online trust

This paper examines the nature of the construct of consumers' trust toward the electronic channel of their financial institution. Through a study of a total of 372 individual users of Internet banking in Spain, we have managed to develop a third-order measuring instrument that integrates a total of seven dimensions. The exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to test the validation and reliability of the proposed scale. Findings provide useful information to professionals who seek to identify how customer's trust is formed in the online channel and in the financial sector.