Real-Time Control Of Floods Along The Demer River, Belgium, By Means Of MPC In Combination With GA And A Fast Conceptual River Model

Climate model projections show that climate change will further increase the risk of flooding in many regions of the world. There is a need for climate adaptation, but building new infrastructure or additional retention basins has its limits, especially in densely populated areas where open spaces are limited. Another solution is the more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. This research investigates a method for real-time flood control by means of existing gated weirs and retention basins. The method was tested for the specific study area of the Demer basin in Belgium but is generally applicable. Today, retention basins along the Demer River are controlled by means of adjustable gated weirs based on fixed logic rules. However, because of the high complexity of the system, only suboptimal results are achieved by these rules. By making use of precipitation forecasts and combined hydrological-hydraulic river models, the state of the river network can be predicted. To fasten the calculation speed, a conceptual river model was used. The conceptual model was combined with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The MPC algorithm predicts the state of the river network depending on the positions of the adjustable weirs in the basin. The GA generates these positions in a semi-random way. Cost functions, based on water levels, were introduced to evaluate the efficiency of each generation, based on flood damage minimization. In the final phase of this research the influence of the most important MPC and GA parameters was investigated by means of a sensitivity study. The results show that the MPC-GA algorithm manages to reduce the total flood volume during the historical event of September 1998 by 46% in comparison with the current regulation. Based on the MPC-GA results, some recommendations could be formulated to improve the logic rules.

"Evaluating the model of classification and valuation of disabilities used in Brazil and defining the elaboration and adoption of a unique model for all the country": Brazilian Interministerial Workgroup Task

The President of Brazil established an Interministerial Work Group in order to “evaluate the model of classification and valuation of disabilities used in Brazil and to define the elaboration and adoption of a unique model for all the country”. Eight Ministries and/or Secretaries participated in the discussion over a period of 10 months, concluding that a proposed model should be based on the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Person with Disabilities, the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health, and the ‘support theory’, and organizing a list of recommendations and necessary actions for a Classification, Evaluation and Certification Network with national coverage.

A conceptual model of compensation/decompensation in lumbar segmental instability

Lumbar spinal instability (LSI) is a common spinal disorder and can be associated with substantial disability. The concept of defining clinically relevant classifications of disease or 'target condition' is used in diagnostic research. Applying this concept to LSI we hypothesize that a set of clinical and radiological criteria can be developed to identify patients with this target condition who are at high risk of 'irreversible' decompensated LSI for whom surgery becomes the treatment of choice. In LSI, structural deterioration of the lumbar disc initiates a degenerative cascade of segmental instability. Over time, radiographic signs become visible: traction spurs, facet joint degeneration, misalignment, stenosis, olisthesis and de novo scoliosis. Ligaments, joint capsules, local and distant musculature are the functional elements of the lumbar motion segment. Influenced by non-functional factors, these functional elements allow a compensation of degeneration of the motion segment. Compensation may happen on each step of the degenerative cascade but cannot reverse it. However, compensation of LSI may lead to an alleviation or resolution of clinical symptoms. In return, the target condition of decompensation of LSI may cause the new occurrence of symptoms and pain. Functional compensation and decompensation are subject to numerous factors that can change which makes estimation of an individual's long-term prognosis difficult. Compensation and decompensation may influence radiographic signs of degeneration, e.g. the degree of misalignment and segmental angulation caused by LSI is influenced by the tonus of the local musculature. This conceptual model of compensation/decompensation may help solve the debate on functional and psychosocial factors that influence low back pain and to establish a new definition of non-specific low back pain. Individual differences of identical structural disorders could be explained by compensated or decompensated LSI leading to changes in clinical symptoms and pain. Future spine surgery will have to carefully define and measure functional aspects of LSI, e.g. to identify a point of no return where multidisciplinary interventions do not allow a re-compensation and surgery becomes the treatment of choice.

Enabling knowledge creation through outsiders: towards a push model of open innovation

Open innovation is increasingly being adopted in business and describes a situation in which firms exchange ideas and knowledge with external participants, such as customers, suppliers, partner firms, and universities. This article extends the concept of open innovation with a push model of open innovation: knowledge is voluntarily created outside a firm by individuals and organisations who proceed to push knowledge into a firm’s open innovation project. For empirical analysis, we examine source code and newsgroup data on the Eclipse Development Platform. We find that outsiders invest as much in the firm’s project as the founding firm itself. Based on the insights from Eclipse, we develop four propositions: ‘preemptive generosity’ of a firm, ‘continuous commitment’, ‘adaptive governance structure’, and ‘low entry barrier’ are contexts that enable the push model of open innovation.

Towards a Transfer Model of Scientific and Technological Knowledge: the Case of Mexico

This paper shows the development of a science-technological knowledge transfer model in Mexico, as a means to boost the limited relations between the scientific and industrial environments. The proposal is based on the analysis of eight organizations (research centers and firms) with varying degrees of skill in the practice of science-technological knowledge transfer, and carried out by the case study approach. The analysis highlights the synergistic use of the organizational and technological capabilities of each organization, as a means to identification of the knowledge transfer mechanisms best suited to enabling the establishment of cooperative processes, and achieve the R&D and innovation activities results.

A conceptual model of organized primary care and comprehensive community health services.

Mode of access: Internet.

Development of a Conceptual Site Model for Evaluating Seawater Intrusion under Sea Level Rise Scenarios Using Analytical Methods

Island County is located in the Puget Sound of Washington State and includes several islands, the largest of which is Whidbey Island. Central Whidbey Island was chosen as the project site, as residents use groundwater for their water supply and seawater intrusion near the coast is known to contaminate this resource. In 1989, Island County adopted a Saltwater Intrusion Policy and used chloride concentrations in existing wells in order to define and map “risk zones.” In 2005, this method of defining vulnerability was updated with the use of water level elevations in conjunction with chloride concentrations. The result of this work was a revised map of seawater intrusion vulnerability that is currently in use by Island County. This groundwater management strategy is defined as trigger-level management and is largely a reactive tool. In order to evaluate trends in the hydrogeologic processes at the site, including seawater intrusion under sea level rise scenarios, this report presents a workflow where groundwater flow and discharge to the sea are quantified using a revised conceptual site model. The revised conceptual site model used several simplifying assumptions that allow for first-order quantitative predictions of seawater intrusion using analytical methods. Data from water well reports included lithologic and well construction information, static water levels, and aquifer tests for specific capacity. Results from specific capacity tests define the relationship between discharge and drawdown and were input for a modified Theis equation to solve for transmissivity (Arihood, 2009). Components of the conceptual site model were created in ArcGIS and included interpolation of water level elevation, creation of groundwater basins, and the calculation of net recharge and groundwater discharge for each basin. The revised conceptual site model was then used to hypothesize regarding hydrogeologic processes based on observed trends in groundwater flow. Hypotheses used to explain a reduction in aquifer thickness and hydraulic gradient were: (1) A large increase in transmissivity occurring near the coast. (2) The reduced aquifer thickness and hydraulic gradient were the result of seawater intrusion. (3) Data used to create the conceptual site model were insufficient to resolve trends in groundwater flow. For Hypothesis 2, analytical solutions for groundwater flow under Dupuit assumptions were applied in order to evaluate seawater intrusion under projected sea level rise scenarios. Results indicated that a rise in sea level has little impact on the position of a saltwater wedge; however, a reduction in recharge has significant consequences. Future work should evaluate groundwater flow using an expanded monitoring well network and aquifer recharge should be promoted by reducing surface water runoff.