Testing the TASP: An Experimental Investigation of Learning in Games with Unstable Equilibria

We report experiments designed to test between Nash equilibria that are stable and unstable under learning. The “TASP” (Time Average of the Shapley Polygon) gives a precise prediction about what happens when there is divergence from equilibrium under fictitious play like learning processes. We use two 4 x 4 games each with a unique mixed Nash equilibrium; one is stable and one is unstable under learning. Both games are versions of Rock-Paper-Scissors with the addition of a fourth strategy, Dumb. Nash equilibrium places a weight of 1/2 on Dumb in both games, but the TASP places no weight on Dumb when the equilibrium is unstable. We also vary the level of monetary payoffs with higher payoffs predicted to increase instability. We find that the high payoff unstable treatment differs from the others. Frequency of Dumb is lower and play is further from Nash than in the other treatments. That is, we find support for the comparative statics prediction of learning theory, although the frequency of Dumb is substantially greater than zero in the unstable treatments.

Acute respiratory infections in children living in two low income communities of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Community studies of non-hospitalized children are essential to obtain a more thorough understanding of acute respiratory infections (ARI) and provide important information for public health authorities. This study identified a total ARI incidence rate (IR) of 4.5 per 100 child-weeks at risk and 0.78 for lower respiratory tract infections (LRI). Disease duration averaged less than one week and produced a total time ill with ARI of 5.8% and for LRI 1.2%. No clear seasonal variation was observed, the sex-specific IR showed a higher proportion of boys becoming ill with ARI and LRI and the peak age-specific IR occurred in infants of 6-11 months. Correlation with risk factors of the child (breastfeeding, vaccination, diarrheal disease, undernourishment) and the environment (crowding, living conditions, maternal age and education) showed marginal increases in the rate ratios, making it difficult to propose clear-cuts targets for action to lower the ARI and LRI morbidity. The importance of an integral maternal-child health care program and public education in the early recognition of LRI is discussed.

Evolutionary ecology of learning: insights from fruit flies

Ecologically and evolutionarily oriented research on learning has traditionally been carried out on vertebrates and bees. While less sophisticated than those animals, fruit flies (Drosophila) are capable of several forms of learning, and have an advantage of a short generation time, which makes them an ideal system for experimental evolution studies. This review summarizes the insights into evolutionary questions about learning gained in the last decade from evolutionary experiments on Drosophila. These experiments demonstrate that Drosophila have the genetic potential to evolve substantially improved learning performance in ecologically relevant learning tasks. In at least one set of selected populations the improved learning generalized to another task than that used to impose selection, involving a different behavior, different stimuli, and a different sensory channel for the aversive reinforcement. This improvement in learning ability was associated with reduction in other fitness-related traits, such as larval competitive ability and lifespan, pointing out to evolutionary trade-offs of improved learning. These trade-offs were confirmed by other evolutionary experiments where reduction in learning performance was observed as a correlated response to selection for tolerance to larval nutritional stress or for delayed aging. Such trade-offs could be one reason why fruit flies have not fully used up their evolutionary potential for learning ability. Finally, another evolutionary experiment with Drosophila provided the first direct evidence for the long-standing ideas that learning can under some circumstances accelerate and in other slow down genetically-based evolutionary change. These results demonstrate the usefulness of fruit flies as a model system to address evolutionary questions about learning.

Prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in Warao lineage communities of Delta Amacuro State, Venezuela

The purpose of this study was the evaluation of Helicobacter pylori infections in children and adults from two indigenous communities of Delta Amacuro State, Venezuela, that differ in hygienic conditions of the housing. The evaluation was performed in 98 children (mean age 7 ± 3.37 years) and their mothers (33.96 ± 13.77 years) from two communities of Warao lineage. Anti-H. pylori serum IgG and secretory anti-H. pylori IgA antibodies were de-termined, as well as total secretory IgA and H. pylori antigens in feces. Serological prevalence of H. pylori infection was 38% in children and 84% their in mothers. Children from the community that had the most deficient sanitary and hygienic conditions had significantly lower titers of specific IgG antibodies and total secretory IgA (P < 0.0001) and a high percentage of them had H. pylori antigens in their feces (P < 0.0001). The levels of specific IgA were similar in both groups. The results indicate that in these populations there is a high prevalence of H. pylori infection and that poor hygienic conditions can increase the risk of infection and damage to the gastrointestinal tract.

Soil fungal communities of grasslands are environmentally structured at a regional scale in the Alps.

Studying patterns of species distributions along elevation gradients is frequently used to identify the primary factors that determine the distribution, diversity and assembly of species. However, despite their crucial role in ecosystem functioning, our understanding of the distribution of below-ground fungi is still limited, calling for more comprehensive studies of fungal biogeography along environmental gradients at various scales (from regional to global). Here, we investigated the richness of taxa of soil fungi and their phylogenetic diversity across a wide range of grassland types along a 2800 m elevation gradient at a large number of sites (213), stratified across a region of the Western Swiss Alps (700 km(2)). We used 454 pyrosequencing to obtain fungal sequences that were clustered into operational taxonomic units (OTUs). The OTU diversity-area relationship revealed uneven distribution of fungal taxa across the study area (i.e. not all taxa are everywhere) and fine-scale spatial clustering. Fungal richness and phylogenetic diversity were found to be higher in lower temperatures and higher moisture conditions. Climatic and soil characteristics as well as plant community composition were related to OTU alpha, beta and phylogenetic diversity, with distinct fungal lineages suggesting distinct ecological tolerances. Soil fungi, thus, show lineage-specific biogeographic patterns, even at a regional scale, and follow environmental determinism, mediated by interactions with plants.

Chagas disease: serological and electrocardiographic studies in Wichi and Creole communities of Misión Nueva Pompeya, Chaco, Argentina

Chagas disease, which is caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, affects nearly 16 million people in Latin America and causes 75-90 million people to be at risk of infection. The disease is urbanizing and globalizing due to frequent migrations. There are regions of high prevalence of infection, including the north-eastern provinces of Argentina and the entire phytogeographic region known as the Gran Chaco. In the province of Chaco, Argentina, there are places inhabited by native populations such as the Wichi and Toba communities, among others. Many Creole populations resulting from miscegenation with European colonists and immigrants coexist within these communities. It has been widely accepted that in the chronic phase of the disease, between 25-30% of individuals develop some form of cardiac disease, with the right bundle-branch block being the most typical condition described so far. The aim of this work was to study the prevalence of Chagas infection and its electrocardiographic profile in the Wichi and Creole populations of Misión Nueva Pompeya, in the area known as Monte Impenetrable in Chaco, to determine the prevalence and the pattern of heart diseases produced by Chagas disease in this region.

Understanding the development of the ESDP: Perspectives and insights from historical institutionalism and theories of learning

How can we best understand the emergence of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP)? This paper applies the theories of historical institutionalism and experiential learning to offer a dynamic conceptualisation of moves towards an ESDP which highlights some of the causal factors that a more temporally-restricted analysis would miss. It firstly shows how the institutional and functional expansion of European Political Cooperation (EPC) over the course of the 1970s and 80s gave rise to a context in which the development of a security and defence dimension came to be viewed as more logical and even necessary. It then goes on to analyse some of the external factors (in the form of actors, events and institutions) that further pushed in this direction and proved to influence the policy’s subsequent evolution. The paper is therefore intended to act as a first-step to understanding the ESDP’s development from this perspective.

The influence of learning on evolution: a mathematical framework.

The Baldwin effect can be observed if phenotypic learning influences the evolutionary fitness of individuals, which can in turn accelerate or decelerate evolutionary change. Evidence for both learning-induced acceleration and deceleration can be found in the literature. Although the results for both outcomes were supported by specific mathematical or simulation models, no general predictions have been achieved so far. Here we propose a general framework to predict whether evolution benefits from learning or not. It is formulated in terms of the gain function, which quantifies the proportional change of fitness due to learning depending on the genotype value. With an inductive proof we show that a positive gain-function derivative implies that learning accelerates evolution, and a negative one implies deceleration under the condition that the population is distributed on a monotonic part of the fitness landscape. We show that the gain-function framework explains the results of several specific simulation models. We also use the gain-function framework to shed some light on the results of a recent biological experiment with fruit flies.

Influence of learning on range expansion and adaptation to novel habitats.

Learning has been postulated to 'drive' evolution, but its influence on adaptive evolution in heterogeneous environments has not been formally examined. We used a spatially explicit individual-based model to study the effect of learning on the expansion and adaptation of a species to a novel habitat. Fitness was mediated by a behavioural trait (resource preference), which in turn was determined by both the genotype and learning. Our findings indicate that learning substantially increases the range of parameters under which the species expands and adapts to the novel habitat, particularly if the two habitats are separated by a sharp ecotone (rather than a gradient). However, for a broad range of parameters, learning reduces the degree of genetically-based local adaptation following the expansion and facilitates maintenance of genetic variation within local populations. Thus, in heterogeneous environments learning may facilitate evolutionary range expansions and maintenance of the potential of local populations to respond to subsequent environmental changes.

Spore communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and mycorrhizal associations in different ecosystems, south Australia

Communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) were surveyed in different South Australian ecosystems. The soil was wet-sieved for spore extraction, followed by the determination of presence and abundance of AMF species as well as the percentage of root colonization. Mycorrhizal associations were common and there was substantial fungal diversity in different ecosystems. Spores were most abundant in the permanent pasture system and less abundant under continuous wheat. The incidence of mycorrhizal associations in different plant species and the occurrence of Arum and Paris type colonization generally conformed with previous information. Spores of seventeen AMF were verified throughout seasonal changes in 1996 and 1997 in the permanent pasture and on four host species (Lolium perenne, Plantago lanceolata, Sorghum sp. and Trifolium subterraneum) , set up with the same soils under greenhouse conditions. Glomus mosseae was the dominant spore type at all sampling times and in all trap cultures. Mycorrhizal diversity was significantly affected by different sampling times in trap cultures but not in field-collected soil. P. lanceolata, Sorghum sp. and T. subterraneum as hosts for trap cultures showed no differences in richness and diversity of AMF spores that developed in association with their roots. Abundance and diversity were lowest, however, in association with L. perenne , particularly in December 1996. Results show that the combination of spore identification from field-collected soil and trap cultures is essential to study population and diversity of AMF. The study provides baseline data for ongoing monitoring of mycorrhizal populations using conventional methods and material for the determination of the symbiotic effectiveness of AMF key members.