Lending to the borrower from hell: Debt and default in the age of Philip II, 1556-1598

What sustained borrowing without third-party enforcement, in the early days of sovereignlending? Philip II of Spain accumulated towering debts while stopping all payments tohis lenders four times. How could the sovereign borrow much and default often? Weargue that bankers ability to cut off Philip II s access to smoothing services was key. Aform of syndicated lending created cohesion among his Genoese bankers. As a result,lending moratoria were sustained through a cheat the cheater mechanism (Kletzer andWright, 2000). Our paper thus lends empirical support to a recent literature emphasizingthe role of bankers incentives for continued sovereign borrowing.

Melanin-based coloration covaries with ovary size in an age-specific manner in the barn owl.

While the adaptive function of black eumelanin-based coloration is relatively well known, the function of reddish-brown pheomelanin-based coloration is still unclear. Only a few studies have shown or suggested that the degree of reddish-brownness is associated with predator-prey relationships, reproductive parameters, growth rate and immunity. To gain insight into the physiological correlates of melanin-based coloration, I collected barn owl (Tyto alba) cadavers and examined the covariation between this colour trait and ovary size, an organ that increases in size before reproduction. A relationship is expected because melanin-based coloration often co-varies with sexual activity. The results showed that reddish-brown juveniles had larger ovaries than whiter juveniles particularly in individuals in poor condition and outside the breeding season, while in birds older than 2 years lightly coloured females had larger ovaries than reddish-brown conspecifics. As barn owls become less reddish-brown between the first and second year of age, the present study suggests that reddish-brown pheomelanic and whitish colorations are associated with juvenile- and adult-specific adaptations, respectively.

DNA mismatch repair gene MSH6 implicated in determining age at natural menopause.

The length of female reproductive lifespan is associated with multiple adverse outcomes, including breast cancer, cardiovascular disease and infertility. The biological processes that govern the timing of the beginning and end of reproductive life are not well understood. Genetic variants are known to contribute to ∼50% of the variation in both age at menarche and menopause, but to date the known genes explain <15% of the genetic component. We have used genome-wide association in a bivariate meta-analysis of both traits to identify genes involved in determining reproductive lifespan. We observed significant genetic correlation between the two traits using genome-wide complex trait analysis. However, we found no robust statistical evidence for individual variants with an effect on both traits. A novel association with age at menopause was detected for a variant rs1800932 in the mismatch repair gene MSH6 (P = 1.9 × 10(-9)), which was also associated with altered expression levels of MSH6 mRNA in multiple tissues. This study contributes to the growing evidence that DNA repair processes play a key role in ovarian ageing and could be an important therapeutic target for infertility.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

A classical particle in heat bath under the influence of external noise

A very simple model of a classical particle in a heat bath under the influence of external noise is studied. By means of a suitable hypothesis, the heat bath is reduced to an internal colored noise (OrnsteinUhlenbeck noise). In a second step, an external noise is coupled to the bath. The steady state probability distributions are obtained.

Poison without antidote for the historical Socrates and french classical tragedy in El verí del teatre (The Poison of the Theatre) by Rodolf Sirera. (An extreme dose of sadism to put a stop to the excesses of theatrical fiction).

Socrates' serene attitude before his death -although this is questioned-, as described by Xenophon in his Apologia Socratis becomes for the playwright Rodolf Sirera a useful reference in an effort to reflect boldly on the limits of theatrical fiction in another clear example of the Classical Tradition, including that derived from Baroque Tragedy. However, in this case, it is judged severely to make us more conscious of the risk of turning life into a mere theatrical performance and human beings into actors and actresses in a play they did not write.

Classical anisotropies in models of open inflation

In the simplest model of open inflation there are two inflaton fields decoupled from each other. One of them, the tunneling field, produces a first stage of inflation which prepares the ground for the nucleation of a highly symmetric bubble. The other, a free field, drives a second period of slow-roll inflation inside the bubble. However, the second field also evolves during the first stage of inflation, which to some extent breaks the needed symmetry. We show that this generates large supercurvature anisotropies which, together with the results of Tanaka and Sasaki, rule out this class of simple models (unless, of course, Omega0 is sufficiently close to 1). The problem does not arise in modified models where the second field does not evolve in the first stage of inflation.

Alcohol-attributable mortality in Switzerland in 2011--age-specific causes of death and impact of heavy versus non-heavy drinking.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use causes high burden of disease and injury globally. Switzerland has a high consumption of alcohol, almost twice the global average. Alcohol-attributable deaths and years of life lost in Switzerland were estimated by age and sex for the year 2011. Additionally, the impact of heavy drinking (40+grams/day for women and 60+g/day for men) was estimated. METHODS: Alcohol consumption estimates were based on the Addiction Monitoring in Switzerland study and were adjusted to per capita consumption based on sales data. Mortality data were taken from the Swiss mortality register. Methodology of the Comparative Risk Assessment for alcohol was used to estimate alcohol-attributable fractions. RESULTS: Alcohol use caused 1,600 (95% CI: 1,472 - 1,728) net deaths (1,768 deaths caused, 168 deaths prevented) among 15 to 74 year olds, corresponding to 8.7% of all deaths (men: 1,181 deaths; women: 419 deaths). Overall, 42,627 years of life (9.7%, 95% CI: 40,245 - 45,008) were lost due to alcohol. Main causes of alcohol-attributable mortality were injuries at younger ages (15-34 years), with increasing age digestive diseases (mainly liver cirrhosis) and cancers (particularly breast cancers among women). The majority (62%) of all alcohol-attributable deaths was caused by chronic heavy drinking (men: 67%; women: 48 %). CONCLUSION: Alcohol is a major cause of premature mortality in Switzerland. Its impact, among young people mainly via injuries, among men mainly through heavy drinking, calls for a mix of preventive actions targeting chronic heavy drinking, binge drinking and mean consumption.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Effects of antiresorptive agents on bone micro-architecture assessed by Trabecular Bone Score in women age 50 and older. The Manitoba Prospective Study

Antiresorptive agents such as bisphosphonates induce a rapid increase of BMD during the 1st year of treatment and a partial maintenance of bone architecture. Trabecular Bone Score (TBS), a new grey-level texture measurement that can be extracted from the DXA image, correlates with 3D parameters of bone micro-architecture. Aim: To evaluate the longitudinal effect of antiresorptive agents on spine BMD and on site-matched spine microarchitecture as assessed by TBS. Methods: From the BMD database for Province of Manitoba, Canada, we selected women age >50 with paired baseline and follow up spine DXA examinations who had not received any prior HRT or other antiresorptive drug.Women were divided in two subgroups: (1) those not receiving any HRT or antiresorptive drug during follow up (=non-users) and (2) those receiving non-HRT antiresorptive drug during follow up (=users) with high adherence (medication possession ratio >75%) from a provincial pharmacy database system. Lumbar spine TBS was derived by the Bone Disease Unit, University of Lausanne, for each spine DXA examination using anonymized files (blinded from clinical parameters and outcomes). Effects of antiresorptive treatment for users and non-users on TBS and BMD at baseline and during mean 3.7 years follow-up were compared. Results were expressed % change per year. Results: 1150 non-users and 534 users met the inclusion criteria. At baseline, users and non-users had a mean age and BMI of [62.2±7.9 vs 66.1±8.0 years] and [26.3±4.7 vs 24.7±4.0 kg/m²] respectively. Antiresorptive drugs received by users were bisphosphonates (86%), raloxifene (10%) and calcitonin (4%). Significant differences in BMD change and TBS change were seen between users and nonusers during follow-up (p<0.0001). Significant decreases in mean BMD and TBS (−0.36± 0.05% per year; −0.31±0.06% per year) were seen for non-users compared with baseline (p<0.001). A significant increase in mean BMD was seen for users compared with baseline (+1.86±0.0% per year, p<0.0018). TBS of users also increased compared with baseline (+0.20±0.08% per year, p<0.001), but more slowly than BMD. Conclusion: We observed a significant increase in spine BMD and a positive maintenance of bone micro-architecture from TBS with antiresorptive treatment, whereas the treatment naïve group lost both density and micro-architecture. TBS seems to be responsive to treatment and could be suitable for monitoring micro-architecture. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled ECTS 2011. Disclosure of interest: M.-A. Krieg: None declared, A. Goertzen: None declared, W. Leslie: None declared, D. Hans Consulting fees from Medimaps.

Successful ageing and development: the contribution of generativity in older age

This paper examines the contributions that generativity in older age may make to the concept of successful ageing. To this end, two perspectives on successful ageing are described: successful ageing as a set of clinical criteria, and successful ageing as the application of adaptive processes aimed at achieving efficient functioning. After showing the limitations of the first perspective, particularly from a developmental point of view, the paper argues that the adaptive version of successful ageing helps to put ageing into a developmental frame, but needs to be complemented by identifying specific content and goals that guide these adaptive processes and establish new feasible gains for older people. Generativity in older age could play that role and provides a conceptual framework that enriches the concept of successful ageing, both by emphasising the social context in which people age and by highlighting a personal growth component.

Statistically significant changes of antimüllerian hormone and inhibin levels during the physiologic menstrual cycle in reproductive age women.

OBJECTIVE: To define the dynamics of antimüllerian hormone (AMH) and inhibins during the physiologic menstrual cycle. DESIGN: Longitudinal study. SETTING: University hospital. PATIENT(S): 36 young, healthy, normal weight Caucasian women without medication. INTERVENTION(S): Normal ovulatory menstrual cycles were evaluated by regular blood sampling taken every other day and periovulatory every day. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Serum concentrations of AMH, inhibin A and B, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), prolactin, estradiol, progesterone, and free testosterone were measured in all blood samples. RESULT(S): Median AMH levels are statistically significantly higher in the late follicular compared with ovulation or the early luteal phase. There are statistically significant correlations between both AMH and FSH, and AMH and free testosterone in all cycle phases. Inhibin A increases strongly in the late follicular phase and peaks at day LH + 4. Inhibin B shows a broad midfollicular and a sharp early luteal peak, the difference being statistically significant between day LH + 4 and the earlier time points and between day LH + 2 and day LH. Although there is a negative association between inhibin A or B and the body mass index (BMI), there is no correlation between AMH and the BMI. CONCLUSION(S): Levels of AMH show a statistically significant change during the menstrual cycle and may influence the circulating gonadotropin and steroid hormone levels.