Accès aux soins d'urgence: organisation et utilité de la chaîne des secours [Access to prehospital medical care: organization and utility of the chain of survival].

In order to be effective, access to prehospital care must be integrated into a system described as "the chain of survival". This system is composed of 5 essential phases: 1) basic help by witnesses; 2) call for help; 3) basic life support; 4) professional rescue and transport to the appropriate institution and 5) access to emergency ward and hospital management. Each phase is characterized by a specific organization, dedicated skills and means in order to increase the level of care brought to the patient. This article describes the organization, the utility and the specificity of the chain of survival allowing access to prehospital medical care in the western part of Switzerland.

Markov chain montecarlo method applied to rounding zeros of compositional data: first approach

As stated in Aitchison (1986), a proper study of relative variation in a compositional data set should be based on logratios, and dealing with logratios excludes dealing with zeros. Nevertheless, it is clear that zero observations might be present in real data sets, either because the corresponding part is completelyabsent –essential zeros– or because it is below detection limit –rounded zeros. Because the second kind of zeros is usually understood as “a trace too small to measure”, it seems reasonable to replace them by a suitable small value, and this has been the traditional approach. As stated, e.g. by Tauber (1999) and byMartín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000), the principal problem in compositional data analysis is related to rounded zeros. One should be careful to use a replacement strategy that does not seriously distort the general structure of the data. In particular, the covariance structure of the involvedparts –and thus the metric properties– should be preserved, as otherwise further analysis on subpopulations could be misleading. Following this point of view, a non-parametric imputation method isintroduced in Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000). This method is analyzed in depth by Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2003) where it is shown that thetheoretical drawbacks of the additive zero replacement method proposed in Aitchison (1986) can be overcome using a new multiplicative approach on the non-zero parts of a composition. The new approachhas reasonable properties from a compositional point of view. In particular, it is “natural” in the sense thatit recovers the “true” composition if replacement values are identical to the missing values, and it is coherent with the basic operations on the simplex. This coherence implies that the covariance structure of subcompositions with no zeros is preserved. As a generalization of the multiplicative replacement, in thesame paper a substitution method for missing values on compositional data sets is introduced

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

The presence of Chane Nieto and Guajirolus Flowers (Ephemeroptera, Baetidae) in Brazil with the description of a new species

The related genera Chane and Guajirolus are reported for the first time from Brazil. Guajirolus rondoni, sp. n. is described based on nymphs from Rondônia State and can be differentiated from the other species of the genus by the following combination of characteristics: 1) mandibles with minute spicules on outer margin; 2) maxillary palp three-segmented; 3) hypopharynx lingua with three rounded processes; 4) projection of second segment of labial palp with apex narrower than base; 5) abdominal color pattern; and 6) paraprocts with 13 to 15 organized spines. An updated key to the species of both genera is presented.

La chaîne des secours: le modèle vaudois [An efficient example of a Swiss pre-hospital chain of survival: the state of Vaud model].

The state of Vaud model of the pre-hospital chain of survival is an example of an efficient way to deal with pre-hospital emergencies. It revolves around a centrally located dispatch center managing emergencies according to specific key words, allowing dispatchers to send out resources among which we find general practitioners, ambulances, physician staffed fast response cars or physician staffed helicopters and specific equipment. The Vaud pre-hospital chain of survival has been tailored according to geographical, demographical and political necessities. It undergoes constant reassessment and needs continuous adaptations to the ever changing demographics and epidemiology of pre-hospital medicine.

Mass conservative three-dimensional water tracer distribution from Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of time-lapse ground-penetrating radar data

Time-lapse geophysical measurements are widely used to monitor the movement of water and solutes through the subsurface. Yet commonly used deterministic least squares inversions typically suffer from relatively poor mass recovery, spread overestimation, and limited ability to appropriately estimate nonlinear model uncertainty. We describe herein a novel inversion methodology designed to reconstruct the three-dimensional distribution of a tracer anomaly from geophysical data and provide consistent uncertainty estimates using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Posterior sampling is made tractable by using a lower-dimensional model space related both to the Legendre moments of the plume and to predefined morphological constraints. Benchmark results using cross-hole ground-penetrating radar travel times measurements during two synthetic water tracer application experiments involving increasingly complex plume geometries show that the proposed method not only conserves mass but also provides better estimates of plume morphology and posterior model uncertainty than deterministic inversion results.

Stochastic processes induced by dichotomous markov noise: Some exact dynamical results

Stochastic processes defined by a general Langevin equation of motion where the noise is the non-Gaussian dichotomous Markov noise are studied. A non-FokkerPlanck master differential equation is deduced for the probability density of these processes. Two different models are exactly solved. In the second one, a nonequilibrium bimodal distribution induced by the noise is observed for a critical value of its correlation time. Critical slowing down does not appear in this point but in another one.

Evolution clinique et sociale des patients toxicodépendants : quelle chaîne thérapeutique ?

RESUME: Introduction: A Lausanne, les prises en charge en traitement des toxicodépendants sont très majoritairement réalisées par les médecins généralistes en pratique privée. En complémentarité, un centre public universitaire spécialisé a été créé en 1996, le Centre St. Martin (CSM). Les traitements additionnels proposés répondent à une logique de niveaux et séquences de soins. L'orientation des patients sur les structures extérieures en place se réalise dès que possible. Cependant les filières de soins empruntées par ces patients et à fortiori leur évolution suite à leur décharge du CSM restent peu connues. But de la thèse: Le but de cette enquête est de décrire et analyser les filières de soins réalisées par les patients pris en charge au CSM et caractériser les évolutions clinique et sociale qu'ils réalisent depuis leur orientation initiale vers le réseau de soins extérieur. Patients et méthode: Les caractéristiques médico-sociales d'une cohorte de 73 patients reçus consécutivement durant 6 mois (1.7.99 - 31.12.99) avec une demande et une indication de traitement de substitution à la méthadone, ont été établies. L'évolution clinique et l'observance au traitement à 36 ± 3 mois de cette cohorte ont ensuite été mesurées. Résultats: La population de patients pris en charge au CSM présente des caractéristiques médico-psycho¬sociales très précaires avec une polytoxicodépendance par voie intraveineuse pour 56.2 °A des cas. 64.4% sont par ailleurs sans formation, 49.3 % sans logement stable. Une comorbidité psychiatrique est présente dans une large majorité des cas. 62 patients (84.9 %) sur le total étudié de 73 indications consécutives à un traitement de substitution à base de méthadone, ont été retrouvés à 3 ans ± 3 mois de leur début de prise en charge au CSM. Leurs évolutions clinique et psychosociale sont satisfaisantes pour tous les paramètres étudiés et ce, quelle que soit l'option initialement choisie du cadre de soins, en institution publique ou en pratique médicale privée. Ils restent intégrés dans un réseau de soins. Les patients polyconsommateurs par voie intraveineuse d'une combinaison d'héroïne, cocaïne et/ou benzodiazépines (52.5 %), malgré leur faible motivation, parviennent à accéder à un programme structuré : la moitié d'entre eux accepte à un moment donné de leur prise en charge leur admission dans une structure résidentielle. Pour la cohorte étudiée, ces patients représentent 83.3 % des admissions dans ce type de structure. Conclusions: Un programme institutionnel spécialisé, orienté sur la construction d'une complémentarité avec le réseau médico-social en place peut réaliser une rétention et une évolution clinique, en termes de consommations illicites, de psychopathologie et d'intégration sociale, satisfaisantes des patients dans la chaîne thérapeutique. L'orientation dans le réseau médico-social extérieur, chez les médecins praticiens, n'est pas délétère. L'évolution de ces patients diffère peu à 3 ans de celle des patients accueillis et maintenus dans la structure institutionnelle. Les processus de soins sont cependant différents d'un setting à l'autre et les épisodes thérapeutiques nombreux mais peu de patients sont « perdus de vue ». La définition de séquences, modalités et niveaux de soins en fonction des profils présentés par les patients toxicodépendants devrait permettre l'optimisation de la fonctionnalité du réseau médico-social en place.

Bel Lahmer Ghali Chane ; Bel Lahmer Ghali Chane (suite) / Cheik Sliman, chant [acc. instr.]

[Traditions. Afrique du Nord. Algérie]

Análise da transição entre dias secos e chuvosos por meio da cadeia de Markov de terceira ordem

O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar se as ocorrências de dias secos e chuvosos são condicionalmente dependentes da seqüência dos três dias secos e chuvosos anteriores, numa zona pluviometricamente homogênea, por meio da cadeia não-homogênea de Markov de terceira ordem. Os resultados mostraram que as probabilidades diárias de transição podem ser adequadamente estimadas, com base em dados agregados bimestralmente, seguidas de interpolação por meio de funções sinusoidais. Além disso, evidenciou-se que, naquela zona, as ocorrências diárias de chuva são condicionalmente dependentes da seqüência de dias secos e chuvosos nos três dias anteriores. A cadeia não-homogênea de Markov de terceira ordem é um importante instrumento para a análise da dependência entre as seqüências de dias secos e chuvosos em determinadas regiões.