State of the Arctic October 2006

This State of the Arctic Report presents a review of recent data by an international group of scientists who developed a consensus on the information content and reliability. The report highlights data primarily from 2000 to 2005 with a first look at winter 2006, providing an update to some of the records of physical processes discussed in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2004, 2005). Of particular note: • Atmospheric climate patterns are shifting (Fig. 1). The late winter/spring pattern for 2000–2005 had new hot spots in northeast Canada and the East Siberian Sea relative to 1980–1999. Late winter 2006, however, shows a return to earlier climate patterns, with warm temperatures in the extended region near Svalbard. • Ocean salinity and temperature profiles at the North Pole and in the Beaufort Sea, which changed abruptly in the 1990s, show that conditions since 2000 have relaxed toward the pre-1990 climatology, although 2001–2004 has seen an increase in northward ocean heat transport through Bering Strait (Fig. 2), which is thought to impact sea ice loss. • Sea ice extent continues to decrease. The sea ice extent in September 2005 was the minimum observed in summer during the satellite era (beginning in 1979), marking an unprecedented series of extreme ice extent minima beginning in 2002 (Fig. 3). The sea ice extent in March 2006 was also the minimum observed in winter during the satellite era. • Tundra vegetation greenness increased, primarily due to an increase in the abundance of shrubs. Boreal forest vegetation greenness decreased, possibly due to drought conditions (Fig. 4). • There is increasing interest in the stability of the Greenland ice sheet. The velocity of outlet glaciers increased in 2005 relative to 2000 and 1995, but uncertainty remains with regard to the total mass balance. • Permafrost temperatures continue to increase. However, data on changes in the active layer thickness (the relatively thin layer of ground between the surface and permafrost that undergoes seasonal freezing and thawing) are less conclusive. While some of the sites show a barely noticeable increasing trend in the thickness of the active layer, most of them do not. • Globally, 2005 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (beginning in 1880), with the Arctic providing a large contribution toward this increase. Many of the trends documented in the ACIA are continuing, but some are not. Taken collectively, the observations presented in this report indicate that during 2000–2005 the Arctic system showed signs of continued warming. However, there are a few indications that certain elements may be recovering and returning to recent climatological norms (for example, the central Arctic Ocean and some wind patterns). These mixed tendencies further illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic physical system. They underline the importance of maintaining and expanding efforts to observe and better understand this important component of the climate system to provide accurate predictions of its future state.

Arctic Report Card 2007: Tracking Recent Environmental Changes

Collectively, the observations indicate that the overall warming of the Arctic system continued in 2007. There are some elements that are stabilizing or returning to climatological norms. These mixed tendencies illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic System. Atmosphere: Hot spot shifts toward Europe Ocean: North Pole Temperatures at depth returning to 1990s values Sea Ice: Summer extent at record minimum Greenland: Recent warm temperatures associated with net ice loss Biology: increasing tundra shrub cover and variable treeline advance; up to 80% declines in some caribou herds while goose populations double Land: Increase in permafrost temperatures The Arctic Report Card 2007 is introduced as a means of presenting clear, reliable and concise information on recent observations of environmental conditions in the Arctic, relative to historical time series records. It provides a method of updating and expanding the content of the State of the Arctic Report, published in fall 2006, to reflect current conditions. Material presented in the Report Card is prepared by an international team of scientists and is peer-reviewed by topical experts nominated by the US Polar Research Board. The audience for the Arctic Report Card is wide, including scientists, students, teachers, decision makers and the general public interested in Arctic environment and science. The web-based format will facilitate future timely updates of the content.

Cystic Echinococcosis in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic

The northern biotype of Echinococcus granulosus occurs throughout the holarctic zones of tundra and taiga, from eastern Fennoscandia to the Bering Strait in Eurasia and in North America from arctic Alaska approximately to the northern border of the United States. The cycle of the cestode is complex in taiga at lower latitudes, because of the greater diversity of potential hosts. In the Arctic and Subarctic, however, four patterns of predator/prey relationships may be discerned. Two natural cycles involve the wolf and wild reindeer and the wolf and elk (moose), respectively. Where deer of the two species coexist, both are prey of the wolf; the interactions of the wolf and elk are here described on the basis of long-term observations made on Isle Royale (in Lake Superior near the southern limit of taiga), where only the wolf and elk serve as hosts for E. granulosus. A synanthropic cycle involving herding-dogs and domesticated reindeer caused hyperendemicity of cystic echinococcosis in arctic Eurasia, mainly in northeastern Siberia. The 4th pattern, a semi-synanthropic cycle, formerly existed in Alaska, wherein sled-dogs of the indigenous hunters became infected by consuming the lungs of wild reindeer. The sequence of changes in life-style inherent in the process of acculturation affected the occurrence of cystic echinococcosis among nomadic Iñupiat in arctic Alaska. When those people became sedentary, the environs of their early villages soon became severely contaminated by feces of dogs, and cases of cystic echinococcosis occurred. Compared to cystic echinococcosis caused by E. granulosus adapted to synanthropic hosts (dog and domestic ungulates), the infection produced by the northern biotype is relatively benign. 0fearly all diagnosed cases of cystic echinococcosis (> 300 in Alaska have occurred in indigenous people; only one fatality has been recorded (in a non-indigenous person). After sled-dogs were replaced by machines, cases have become rare in Alaska. A similar effect has been observed in Fennoscandia, in the Saami and domesticated reindeer. Recent records indicate tbat the prcvalence of cystic echinococcosis is increasing in Russia, suggesting that dogs are used there in herding.

Patterned-ground plant communities along a bioclimate gradient in the High Arctic, Canada

Non-sorted circles, non-sorted polygons, and earth hummocks are common ground-surface features ill arctic regions. The), are caused by a variety of physical processes that Occur in permafrost regions including contraction cracking and frost heave. Here we describe the vegetation of patterned-ground forms on zonal sites at three location!: along an N-S transect through the High Arctic of Canada. We made 75 releves on patterned-ground features (circles, polygons, earth hummocks) and adjacent tundra (Interpolygon, intercircle, interhummock areas) and identified and classified the vegetation according to the Braun-Blanquet Method. Environmental factors were correlated with the vegetation data using a nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination (NMDS). We identified eleven commnunities: (1) Puccinellia angustata-Papaver radicalum community in xeromesic non-sorted polygons of subzone A of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map; (2) Saxifraga-Parmelia omphalodes ssp. glacialis community in hydromesic interpolygon areas of subzone A; (3) Hypogymnia subobscura-Lecanora epibryon community In xeromesic non-sorted polygons of subzone B; (4) Orthotrichum speciosum-Salix arctica community In xeromesic interpolygon areas of subzone B; (5) Cochlearia groenlandica-Luzula nivalis community in hydromesic earth Mocks Of subzone B; (6) Salix arctica-Eriophorum angustifolium ssp. triste community in hygric earth hummocks of subzone 13; (7) Puccinellia angustata-Potentilla vahliana community in xeromesic non-sorted circles and bare patches of subzone Q (8) Dryas integrifolia-Carex rupestris community in xeromesic intercircle areas and vegetated patches of subzone C; (9) Braya glabella ssp. purpurascens-Dryas integrifolia community In hydromesic non-sorted circles of subzone Q (10) Dryas integrifolia-Carex aquatilis community in hydromesic intercircle areas of subzone C; and (11) Eriophorum angustifolium ssp. triste-Carex aquatilis community ill hygric intercircle areas of subzone C. The NMDS ordination displayed the vegetation types with respect to complex environmental gradients. The first axis of the ordination corresponds to a complex soil moisture gradient and the second axis corresponds to a complex geology/elevation/climate gradient. The tundra plots have a greater moss and graminoid cover than the adjacent frost-heave communities. In general, frost-heave features have greater thaw depths, more bare ground, thinner organic horizons, and lower soil moisture than the surrounding tundra. The morphology of the investigated patterned ground forms changes along the climatic gradient, with non-sorted pollygons dominating in the northernmost sites and non-sorted circles dominating, in the southern sites.

Spatial and temporal patterns of greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: interactions of ecological and social factors affecting the Arctic normalized difference vegetation index

The causes of a greening trend detected in the Arctic using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are still poorly understood. Changes in NDVI are a result of multiple ecological and social factors that affect tundra net primary productivity. Here we use a 25 year time series of AVHRR-derived NDVI data (AVHRR: advanced very high resolution radiometer), climate analysis, a global geographic information database and ground-based studies to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. We assess the effects of climate change, gas-field development, reindeer grazing and permafrost degradation. In contrast to the case for Arctic North America, there has not been a significant trend in summer temperature or NDVI, and much of the pattern of NDVI in this region is due to disturbances. There has been a 37% change in early-summer coastal sea-ice concentration, a 4% increase in summer land temperatures and a 7% change in the average time-integrated NDVI over the length of the satellite observations. Gas-field infrastructure is not currently extensive enough to affect regional NDVI patterns. The effect of reindeer is difficult to quantitatively assess because of the lack of control areas where reindeer are excluded. Many of the greenest landscapes on the Yamal are associated with landslides and drainage networks that have resulted from ongoing rapid permafrost degradation. A warming climate and enhanced winter snow are likely to exacerbate positive feedbacks between climate and permafrost thawing. We present a diagram that summarizes the social and ecological factors that influence Arctic NDVI. The NDVI should be viewed as a powerful monitoring tool that integrates the cumulative effect of a multitude of factors affecting Arctic land-cover change.

(Table 1) Species richness and diversity of tundra plants in herbivore exclosure and control plots near Barrow, Alaska

To determine the role lemmings play in structuring plant communities and their contribution to the 'greening of the Arctic', we measured plant cover and biomass in 50 + year old lemming exclosures and control plots in the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The response of plant functional types to herbivore exclusion varied among land cover types. In general, the abundance of lichens and bryophytes increased with the exclusion of lemmings, whereas graminoids decreased, although the magnitude of these responses varied among land cover types. These results suggest that sustained lemming activity promotes a higher biomass of vascular plant functional types than would be expected without their presence and highlights the importance of considering herbivory when interpreting patterns of greening in the Arctic. In light of the rapid environmental change ongoing in the Arctic and the potential regional to global implications of this change, further exploration regarding the long-term influence of arvicoline rodents on ecosystem function (e.g. carbon and energy balance) should be considered a research priority.

Deep drilling of glaciers: Russian projects in the Arctic (1975-1995)

The data collection "Deep Drilling of Glaciers: Soviet-Russian projects in Arctic, 1975-1995" was collected by the following basic considerations: - compilation of deep (>100 m) drilling projects on Arctic glaciers, using data of (a) publications; (b) archives of IGRAN; (c) personal communication of project participants; - documentation of parameters, references. Accuracy of data and techniques applied to determine different parameters are not evaluated. The accuracy of some geochemical parameters (up to 1984 and heavy metalls) is uncertain. Most reconstructions of ice core age and of annual layer thickness are discussed; - digitizing of published diagrams (in case, when original numerical data were lost) and subsequent data conversion to equal range series and adjustment to the common units. Therefore, the equal-range series were calculated from original data or converted from digitized chart values as indicated in the metadata. For the methodological purpose, the equal-range series obtained from original and reconstructed data were compared repeatedly; the systematic difference was less then 5-7%. Special attention should be given to the fact, that the data for individual ice core parameters varies, because some parameters were originally measured or registered. Parameters were converted in equal-range series using 2 m steps; - two or more parameter values were determined, then the mean-weighted (i.e. accounting the sample length) value is assigned to the entire interval; - one parameter value was determined, measured or registered independently from the parameter values in depth intervals which over- and underlie it, then the value is assigned to the entire interval; - one parameter value was determined, measured or registered for two adjoining depth intervals, then the specific value is assigned to the depth interval, which represents >75% of sample length ; if each of adjoining depth intervals represents <75% of sample length, then the correspondent parameter value is assigned to both intervals of depth. This collection of ice core data (version 2000) was made available through the EU funded QUEEN project by S.M. Arkhipov, Moscow.

Physico-chemical parameters of sediment core PG1972-1 (09-Tik-03) from a Tundra Lake, Northeastern Siberia

Thermokarst lakes in the Siberian Arctic contain sediment archives that can be used for paleoenvironmental inference. Until now, however, there has been no study from the inner Lena River Delta with a focus on diatoms. The objective of this study was to investigate how the diatom community in a thermokarst lake responded to past limnogeological changes and what specific factors drove variations in the diatom assemblage. We analysed fossil diatom species, organic content, grain-size distribution and elemental composition in a sediment core retrieved in 2009 from a shallow thermokarst lake in the Arga Complex, western Lena River Delta. The core contains a 3,000-year record of sediment accumulation. Shifts in the predominantly benthic and epiphytic diatom species composition parallel changes in sediment characteristics. Paleoenvironmental and limnogeological development, inferred from multiple biological and sedimentological variables, are discussed in the context of four diatom zones, and indicate a strong relation between changes in the diatom assemblage and thermokarst processes. We conclude that limnogeological and thermokarst processes such as lake drainage, rather than direct climate forcing, were the main factors that altered the aquatic ecosystem by influencing, for example, habitat availability, hydrochemistry, and water level.

Environment and habitat characteristics of wintering lemmings in the Arctic

Snow cover has dramatic effects on the structure and functioning of Arctic ecosystems in winter. In the tundra, the subnivean space is the primary habitat of wintering small mammals and may be critical for their survival and reproduction. We have investigated the effects of snow cover and habitat features on the distributions of collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) winter nests, as well as on their probabilities of reproduction and predation by stoats (Mustela erminea) and arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus). We sampled 193 lemming winter nests and measured habitat features at all of these nests and at random sites at two spatial scales. We also monitored overwinter ground temperature at a subsample of nest and random sites. Our results demonstrate that nests were primarily located in areas with high micro-topography heterogeneity, steep slopes, deep snow cover providing thermal protection (reduced daily temperature fluctuations) and a high abundance of mosses. The probability of reproduction increased in collared lemming nests at low elevation and in brown lemming nests with high availability of some graminoid species. The probability of predation by stoats was density dependent and was higher in nests used by collared lemmings. Snow cover did not affect the probability of predation of lemming nests by stoats, but deep snow cover limited predation attempts by arctic foxes. We conclude that snow cover plays a key role in the spatial structure of wintering lemming populations and potentially in their population dynamics in the Arctic.

Distribution of diatoms in surface sediments and some limnological characteristics of studied lakes in the Siberian arctic

The investigation of the species composition and ecology of diatoms of modern bottom sediments in water bodies of arctic polygonal tundra in three subregions of North Yakutiya has been carried out. As a result, 161 taxons of diatoms were determined; the determinant role of the depth, conductivity, pH of the water, and geographic latitude in their distribution was confirmed, and two complexes of species with respect to the leading abiotic factors were distinguished. The diatoms of the first complex prefer shallow water bodies of high latitudes with neutral and slightly alkaline water and relatively high conductivity. The second complex is confined to the water bodies of lower latitudes with small conductivity, as well as neutral and slightly acidic water.

Initial biomass and biomass change of tundra and forest plants in three herbivore treatments in Norway and Sweden

Recent Pan-Arctic shrub expansion has been interpreted as a response to a warmer climate. However, herbivores can also influence the abundance of shrubs in arctic ecosystems. We addressed these alternative explanations by following the changes in plant community composition during the last 10 years in permanent plots inside and outside exclosures with different mesh sizes that exclude either only reindeer or all mammalian herbivores including voles and lemmings. The exclosures were replicated at three forest and tundra sites at four different locations along a climatic gradient (oceanic to continental) in northern Fennoscandia. Since the last 10 years have been exceptionally warm, we could study how warming has influenced the vegetation in different grazing treatments. Our results show that the abundance of the dominant shrub, Betula nana, has increased during the last decade, but that the increase was more pronounced when herbivores were excluded. Reindeer have the largest effect on shrubs in tundra, while voles and lemmings have a larger effect in the forest. The positive relationship between annual mean temperature and shrub growth in the absence of herbivores and the lack of relationships in grazed controls is another indication that shrub abundance is controlled by an interaction between herbivores and climate. In addition to their effects on taller shrubs (> 0.3 m), reindeer reduced the abundance of lichens, whereas microtine rodents reduced the abundance of dwarf shrubs (< 0.3 m) and mosses. In contrast to short-term responses, competitive interactions between dwarf shrubs and lichens were evident in the long term. These results show that herbivores have to be considered in order to understand how a changing climate will influence tundra ecosystems.