Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Effects of six carbohydrate sources on dog diet digestibility and post-prandial glucose and insulin response

The effects of six extruded diets with different starch sources (cassava flour, brewer`s rice, corn, sorghum, peas or lentils) on dog total tract apparent digestibility and glycemic and insulinemic response were investigated. The experiment was carried out on thirty-six dogs with six dogs per diet in a completely randomized design. The diets containing brewer`s rice and cassava flour presented the greatest digestibility of dry matter, organic matter and gross energy (p < 0.05), followed by corn and sorghum; pea and lentil diets had the lowest. Starch digestibility was greater than 98% in all diets and was greater for brewer`s rice and cassava flour than for lentils and peas diets (p < 0.05). Dogs` immediate post-prandial glucose and insulin responses (AUC <= 30 min) were greater for brewer`s rice, corn, and cassava flour diets (p < 0.05), and later meal responses (AUC >= 30 min) were greater for sorghum, lentil and pea diets (p < 0.05). Variations in diet digestibility and post-prandial response can be explained by differences in chemical composition of each starch source including fibre content and starch granule structure. The nutritional particularities of each starch ingredient can be explored through diet formulations designed to modulate glycemic response. However, more studies are required to support these.

Effects of six carbohydrate sources on diet digestibility and postprandial glucose and insulin responses in cats

The effects of diets with different starch sources on the total tract apparent digestibility and glucose and insulin responses in cats were investigated. Six experimental diets consisting of 35% starch were extruded, each containing one of the following ingredients: cassava flour, brewers rice, corn, sorghum, peas, or lentils. The experiment was carried out on 36 cats with 6 replications per diet in a completely randomized block design. The brewers rice diet offered greater DM, OM, and GE digestibility than the sorghum, corn, lentil, and pea diets (P < 0.05). For starch digestibility, the brewers rice diet had greater values (98.6%) than the sorghum (93.9%), lentil (95.2%), and pea (96.3%) diets (P < 0.05); however, starch digestibility was > 93% for all the diets, proving that despite the low carbohydrate content of carnivorous diets, cats can efficiently digest this nutrient when it is properly processed into kibble. Mean and maximum glucose concentration and area under the glucose curve were greater for the corn-based diet than the cassava flour, sorghum, lentil, and pea diets (P < 0.05). The corn-based diets led to greater values for the mean glucose incremental concentration (10.2 mg/dL), maximum glucose incremental concentration (24.8 mg/dL), and area under the incremental glucose curve (185.5 mg.dL(-1).h(-1)) than the lentil diet (2.9 mg/dL, 3.1 mg/dL, and -40.4 mg.dL(-1).h(-1), respectively; P < 0.05). When compared with baseline values, only the corn diet stimulated an increase in the glucose response, occurring at 4 and 10 h postmeal (P < 0.05). The corn-based diet resulted in greater values for maximum incremental insulin concentration and area under the incremental insulin curve than the lentil-based diet (P < 0.05). However, plasma insulin concentrations rose in relation to the basal values for cats fed corn, sorghum, pea, and brewers rice diets (P < 0.05). Variations in diet digestibility and postprandial response can be explained by differences in the chemical composition of the starch source, including fiber content and granule structure, and also differences in the chemical compositions of the diets. The data suggest that starch has less of an effect on the cat postprandial glucose and insulin responses than on those of dogs and humans. This can be explained by the metabolic peculiarities of felines, which may slow and prolong starch digestion and absorption, leading to the delayed, less pronounced effects on their blood responses.

Effects of adding polyclonal antibody preparations on ruminal fermentation patterns and digestibility of cows fed different energy sources

Nine ruminally cannulated cows fed different energy sources were used to evaluate an avian-derived polyclonal antibody preparation (PAP-MV) against the specific ruminal bacteria Streptococcus bovis, Fusobacterium necrophorum, Clostridium aminophilum, Peptostreptococcus anaerobius, and Clostridium stick-landii and monensin (MON) on ruminal fermentation patterns and in vivo digestibility. The experimental design was three 3 x 3 Latin squares distinguished by the main energy source in the diet [dry-ground corn grain (CG), high-moisture corn silage (HMCS), or citrus pulp (CiPu)]. Inside each Latin square, animals received one of the feed additives per period [none (CON), MON, or PAP-MV]. Dry matter intake and ruminal fermentation variables such as pH, total short-chain fatty acids (tSCFA), which included acetate, propionate, and butyrate, as well as lactic acid and NH(3)-N concentration were analyzed in this trial. Total tract DM apparent digestibility and its fractions were estimated using chromic oxide as an external marker. Each experimental period lasted 21 d. Ruminal fluid sampling was carried out on the last day of the period at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 h after the morning meal. Ruminal pH was higher (P = 0.006) 4 h postfeeding in MON and PAP-MV groups when compared with CON. Acetate: propionate ratio was greater in PAP-MV compared with MON across sampling times. Polyclonal antibodies did not alter (P > 0.05) tSCFA, molar proportion of acetate and butyrate, or lactic acid and NH(3)-N concentration. Ruminal pH was higher (P = 0.01), 4 h postfeeding in CiPu diets compared with CG and HMCS. There was no interaction between feed additive and energy source (P > 0.05) for any of the digestibility coefficients analyzed. Starch digestibility was less (P = 0.008) in PAP-MV when compared with CON and MON. In relation to energy sources, NDF digestibility was greater (P = 0.007) in CG and CiPu vs. the HMCS diet. The digestibility of ADF was greater (P = 0.002) in CiPu diets followed by CG and HMCS. Feeding PAP-MV or monensin altered ruminal fermentation patterns and digestive function in cows; however, those changes were independent of the main energy source of the diet.

Use of lignin extracted from different plant sources as standards in the spectrophotometric acetyl bromide lignin method

A nongravimetric acetyl bromide lignin (ABL) method was evaluated to quantify lignin concentration in a variety of plant materials. The traditional approach to lignin quantification required extraction of lignin with acidic dioxane and its isolation from each plant sample to construct a standard curve via spectrophotometric analysis. Lignin concentration was then measured in pre-extracted plant cell walls. However, this presented a methodological complexity because extraction and isolation procedures are lengthy and tedious, particularly if there are many samples involved. This work was targeted to simplify lignin quantification. Our hypothesis was that any lignin, regardless of its botanical origin, could be used to construct a standard curve for the purpose of determining lignin concentration in a variety of plants. To test our hypothesis, lignins were isolated from a range of diverse plants and, along with three commercial lignins, standard curves were built and compared among them. Slopes and intercepts derived from these standard curves were close enough to allow utilization of a mean extinction coefficient in the regression equation to estimate : lignin concentration in any plant, independent of its botanical origin. Lignin quantification by use of a common regression equation obviates the steps of lignin extraction, isolation, and standard curve construction, which substantially expedites the ABL method. Acetyl bromide lignin method is a fast, convenient analytical procedure that may routinely be used to quantify lignin.

Dietary Fluoride Intake by Children Receiving Different Sources of Systemic Fluoride

There has been no comparison of fluoride (F) intake by pre-school children receiving more traditional sources of systemic F. The aim of this study was to estimate the dietary F intake by children receiving F from artificially fluoridated water (AFW-Brazil, 0.6-0.8 mg F/L), naturally fluoridated water (NFW-Brazil, 0.6-0.9 mg F/L), fluoridated salt (FS-Peru, 180-200 mg F/Kg), and fluoridated milk (FM-Peru, 0.25 mg F). Children (n = 21-26) aged 4-6 yrs old participated in each community. A non-fluoridated community (NoF) was evaluated as the control population. Dietary F intake was monitored by the ""duplicate plate"" method, with different constituents (water, other beverages, and solids). F was analyzed with an ion-selective electrode. Data were tested by Kruskall-Wallis and Dunn`s tests (p < 0.05). Mean (+/- SD) F intake (mg/Kg b.w./day) was 0.04 +/- 0.01(b), 0.06 +/- 0.02(a,b), 0.05 +/- 0.02(a,b), 0.06 +/- 0.01(a), and 0.01 +/- 0.00(c) for AFW/NFW/FS/FM/NoF, respectively. The main dietary contributors for AFW/NFW and FS/FM/NoF were water and solids, respectively. The results indicate that the dietary F intake must be considered before a systemic method of fluoridation is implemented.

Biomarkers of Fluoride in Children Exposed to Different Sources of Systemic Fluoride

There has been no comparison between fluoride concentrations in urine and nails of children exposed to different sources of systemic fluoride. The aim of this study was to compare the relationship between fluoride intake with urinary fluoride excretion and fluoride concentrations in fingernails and toenails of children receiving fluoride from artificially fluoridated water (0.6-0.8 mg F/L, n = 25), naturally fluoridated water (0.6-0.9 mg F/L, n = 21), fluoridated salt (180-200 mg F/Kg, n = 26), and fluoridated milk (0.25 mg F, n = 25). A control population was included (no systemic fluoride, n = 24). Fluoride intake from diet and dentifrice, urinary fluoride excretion, and fluoride concentrations in fingernails/toenails were evaluated. Fluoride was analyzed with an ion-selective electrode. Urinary fluoride excretion in the control community was significantly lower when compared with that in the fluoridated cities, except for the naturally fluoridated community. However, the same pattern was not as evident for nails. Both urinary fluoride output and fluoride concentrations in fingernails/toenails were significantly correlated to total fluoride intake. However, the correlation coefficients for fluoride intake and urinary fluoride output were lower (r = 0.28, p < 0.01) than those observed for fingernails/toenails (r = 0.36, p < 0.001), suggesting that nails might be slightly better indicators of fluoride intake at the individual level.

Genetic sources of covariation among P3(00) and online performance variables in a delayed-response working memory task

Genetic and environmental sources of covariation among the P3(00) and online performance elicited in a delayed-response working memory task, and psychometric IQ assessed by the multidimensional aptitude battery, were examined in an adolescent twin sample. An association between frontal P3 latency and task performance (phenotypic r = -0.33; genotypic r = -0.49) was indicated, with genes (i.e. twin status) accounting for a large part of the covariation ( > 70%). In contrast, genes influencing P3 amplitude mediated only a small part (2%) of the total genetic variation in task performance. While task performance mediated 15% of the total genetic variation in IQ (phenotypic r = 0.22; genotypic r = 0.39) there was no association between P3 latency and IQ or P3 amplitude with IQ. The findings provide some insight into the inter-relationships among psychophysiological, performance and psychometric measures of cognitive ability, and provide support for a levels-of-processing genetic model of cognition where genes act on specific sub-components of cognitive processes.