Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The role of environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Japanese encephalitis in mainland China

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most common cause of viral encephalitis and an important public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China where 50% of global cases are notified. To explore the association between environmental factors and human JE cases and identify the high risk areas for JE transmission in China, we used annual notified data on JE cases at the center of administrative township and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 1 km×1 km from 2005 to 2011 to construct models using ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches based on maximum entropy. These models were then validated by overlaying reported human JE case localities from 2006 to 2012 onto each prediction map. ENMs had good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.82-0.91, and low extrinsic omission rate of 5.44-7.42%. Resulting maps showed JE being presented extensively throughout southwestern and central China, with local spatial variations in probability influenced by minimum temperatures, human population density, mean temperatures, and elevation, with contribution of 17.94%-38.37%, 15.47%-21.82%, 3.86%-21.22%, and 12.05%-16.02%, respectively. Approximately 60% of JE cases occurred in predicted high risk areas, which covered less than 6% of areas in mainland China. Our findings will help inform optimal geographical allocation of the limited resources available for JE prevention and control in China, find hidden high-risk areas, and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

Simulation of the supply capability of sheep on the Mitchell grass downs of north west Queensland

Sheep in western Queensland have been predominantly reared for wool. When wool prices became depressed interest in the sheep meat industry, increased. For north west Queensland producers, opportunities may exist to participate in live sheep and meat export to Asia. A simulation model was developed to determine whether this sheep producing area has the capability to provide sufficient numbers of sheep under variable climatic conditions while sustaining the land resources. Maximum capacity for sustainability of resources (as described by stock numbers) was derived from an in-depth study of the agricultural and pastoral potential of Queensland. Decades of sheep production and climatic data spanning differing seasonal conditions were collated for analysis. A ruminant biology model adapted from Grazplan was used to simulate pregnancy rate. Empirical equations predict mortalities, marking rates, and weight characteristics of sheep of various ages from simple climatic measures, stocking rate and reproductive status. The initial age structure of flocks was determined by running the model for several years with historical climatic conditions. Drought management strategies such as selling a proportion of wethers progressively down to two-tooth and oldest ewes were incorporated. Management decisions such as time of joining, age at which ewes were cast-for-age, wether turn-off age and turning-off rate of lambs vary with geographical area and can be specified at run time. The model is run for sequences of climatic conditions generated stochastically from distributions based on historical climatic data correlated in some instances. The model highlights the difficulties of sustaining a consistent supply of sheep under variable climatic conditions.

Specialisation versus special interest: The Australian podiatry experience

Background Ensuring efficient and effective delivery of health care to an ageing population has been a major driver for a review of the health workforce in Australia. As part of this process a National Registration and Accreditation Scheme (NRAS) has evolved with one goal being to improve workforce flexibility within a nationally consistent model of governance. In addition to increased flexibility, there have been discussions about maintaining standards and the role of specialisation. This study aims to explore the association between practitioners’ self-perceptions about their special interest in musculoskeletal, diabetes related and podopaediatric foot care and the actual podiatry services they deliver in Australia. Methods A cross sectional on-line survey was administered on behalf of the Australasian Podiatry Council and its’ state based member associations. Self-reported data were collected over a 3-week interval and captured information about the practitioners by gender, years of clinical experience, area of work by state, work setting, and location. For those participants that identified with an area of special interest or specialty, further questions were asked regarding support for the area of special interest through education, and activities performed in treating patients in the week prior to survey completion. Queensland University of Technology Human Research Ethics approval was sought and confirmed exemption from review. Results 218 podiatrists participated in the survey. Participants were predominately female and worked in private practices. The largest area of personal interest by the podiatrists was related to the field of musculoskeletal podiatry (n = 65), followed closely by diabetes foot care (n = 61), and a third area identified was in the management of podopaediatric conditions (n = 26). Conclusions Health workforce reform in Australia is in part being managed by the federal government with a goal to meet the health care needs of Australians into the future. The recognition of a specialty registration of podiatric surgery and endorsement for scheduled medicines was established with this workforce reform in mind. Addition of new subspecialties may be indicated based on professional development, to maintain high standards and meet community expectations.

Mechanical performances of track-shaped rebar stiffened concrete-filled steel tubular (SCFRT) stub columns under axial compression

This paper presents a combined experimental, numerical, and theoretical study on the mechanical behaviors of track-shaped concrete-filled steel tubular (SCFRT) stub columns stiffened by rebars under compressive load. A total of 18 track-shaped concrete-filled steel tubular specimens including 12 specimens stiffened by rebars and 6 non-stiffened counterparts are tested, with consideration of parameters including flakiness ratio, concrete strength, and stiffeners. Failure pattern, bearing capacity, and ductility are all analyzed and discussed based on the experimental results. The numerical simulation by finite element (FE) software ABAQUS is also conducted. Based on both experimental and numerical results, theoretical formula to predict the load-bearing capacity of SCFRT stub columns subjected to axial compression loading is established according to the superposition principle of ultimate load-bearing capacity with rational simplification. The proposed theoretical method provides accurate predictions on the load bearing capacity by comparing with experimental results from 18 groups of specimens.

Studies on vacuum pyrolysis of ammonium perchlorate and ammonium perchlorate/polystyrene propellant in the presence of transition metal oxides

Vacuum pyrolysis of ammonium perchlorate (AP) and ammonium perchlorate/polystyrene (PS) propellant has been studied by differential thermal analysis (DTA) in order to observe the effect of transition metal oxides on sublimation. Sublimation and decomposition being competitive processes, their proportions depend on the pressure of the pyrolysis chamber. The enthalpies for complete decomposition and complete sublimation are available from the literature and by using these data together with DTA area measurements, the extents of sublimation and decomposition have been calculated for AP and the propellant system. The effect of the metal ions on the extent and rate of sublimation depends on their nature. For AP the extent of sublimation increases with a decrease in particle size. For the propellants the powder sublimes more readily than the bulk material, but in the presence of metal ions the bulk material sublimes more readily than the powder. To substantiate this finding, the effect of MnO2 on AP sublimation as a function of particle size was examined, and it was observed that the extent of sublimation decreases as the particle size decreases.

Ultrafine powders of SrTiO3 from the hydrothermal preparation and their catalytic activity in the photolysis of water

Ultrafine powders of SrTiO3 are prepared at 100–150°C by the hydrothermal method, starting from TiO2·xH2O gel and Sr(OH)2 and H2O-isopropanol mixed solvent as the medium, The X-ray diffractograms of the powder show line broadening. The minimum crystallite size obtained ranges from 5 to 20nm with 20% H2O-80% C3H7OH as the reaction medium, as estimated from X-ray half-peak widths and TEM studies. The electron diffraction results indicate high concentration of lattice defects in these crystallites. The optical spectra of the particle suspensions in water show that the absorption around the band gap is considerably broadened, together with the appearance of maxima in the far ultraviolet. Aqueous suspensions of SrTiO3 powders, as such, do not produce H2 or O2 on UV irradiation. After coating with rhodium, H2 and O2 are evolved on illumination. However, the turn over number of O2 is lower than the stoichiometrically expected values from the corresponding values of H2. No correlation of the photocatalytic activity with surface area is observed. The activity of Rh-SrTiO3 slowly deteriorates with extended period of irradiation.

The value of having no wild rabbits in south-east Queensland

Rabbits released in Australia in 1859 spread to most areas of suitable habitat by 1910 causing great damage to the environment and primary industries. Measurement of damage is essential to justify spending money and utilising resources to remove rabbits. Damage to pasture and biodiversity may be irreversible and therefore difficult to measure without comparison with an area that has never suffered such damage. A rabbit proof fence completed in 1906 protected a large part of south east Queensland from rabbits. The Darling Downs Moreton Rabbit Board (DDMRB) continues to maintain the fence and keep the area relatively free of rabbits. This area is unique because it is highly suitable for rabbits and yet it has never ‘experienced’ the damage caused by plagues of uncontrolled rabbits. A study site was established where the DDMRB fence separates an area heavily used by rabbits (‘dirty side’) from an area that has never been infested by rabbits (‘clean side’). The number and location of all rabbit warrens and log piles were recorded. The absence of warrens from the ‘clean side’ shows clearly that the rabbit proof fence has prevented rabbits from establishing warren systems. The ‘dirty side’ is characterised by a high number of warrens, a high density of rabbits, fewer pasture species and low macropod activity. Future work will determine whether the rabbit populations are viable in the absence of rabbit warrens. We plan to radio collar rabbits on both sides of the fence to measure their survival rate. In selected warrens and log piles of varying degrees of complexity and size, rabbits will be trapped and information on reproduction and age structure will be collected. This will allow better targeting of the source of rabbits during control operations. Once the initial comparative analysis of the site has been completed, all rabbit warrens will be destroyed on the dirty side of the fence. After rabbits are removed from this area, monitoring will continue to determine if pasture and biodiversity on opposite sides of the fence begin to mirror each other.

Analysis of Flux Fringing for High-Frequency AC Inductor Design

Design of high-frequency inductors for purposes like Active Front End (AFE) converter filters involves analytical calculations based on methods like area product approach and accurate graphical methods. Once a core with an area product is selected the subsequent calculations of inductance and peak operating flux requires the estimation of reluctance of the magnetic circuit. This in turn demands an estimate of the fringing that will happen in the air gap of the inductor. In this paper we have looked at analytical methods for evaluating fringing flux and compared it with results from finite element method. Different levels of details of modelling the inductor is first considered for this purpose. The end results are compared with experimental measurements of inductance. It is shown that simple fringing flux model can provide accurate models for the inductor design.

Effect of soil preparation of boreal spruce forest on air and soil temperature conditions in forest regeneration areas.

The effect of scarification, ploughing and cross-directional plouhing on temperature conditions in the soil and adjacent air layer have been studied during 11 consecutive growth periods by using an unprepared clear-cut area as a control site. The maximum and minimum temperatures were measured daily in the summer months, and other temperature observations were made at four-hour intervals by means of a Grant measuring instrument. The development of the seedling stand was also followed in order to determine its shading effect on the soil surface. Soil preparation decreased the daily temperature amplitude of the air at the height of 10 cm. The maximum temperatures on sunny days were lower in the tilts of the ploughed and in the humps of the cross-directional ploughed sites compared with the unprepared area. Correspondingly, the night temperatures were higher and so the soil preparation considerably reduced the risk of night frost. In the soil at the depth of 5 cm, soil preparation increased daytime temperatures and reduced night temperatures compared with unprepared area. The maximum increase in monthly mean temperatures was almost 5 °C, and the daily variation in the surface parts of the tilts and humps increased so that excessively high temperatures for the optimal growth of the root system were measured from time to time. The temperature also rose at the depths of 50 and 100 cm. Soil preparation also increased the cumulative temperature sum. The highest sums accumulated during the summer months were recorded at the depth of 5 cm in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area (1127 dd.) and in the tilts of the ploughed area (1106 dd.), while the corresponding figure in the unprepared soil was 718 dd. At the height of 10 cm the highest temperature sum was 1020 dd. in the hump, the corresponding figure in the unprepared area being 925 dd. The incidence of high temperature amplitudes and percentage of high temperatures at the depth of 5 cm decreased most rapidly in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area and in the ploughing tilts towards the end of the measurement period. The decrease was attributed principally to the compressing of tilts, the ground vegetation succession and the growth of seedlings. The mean summer temperature in the unprepared area was lower than in the prepared area and the difference did not diminish during the period studied. The increase in temperature brought about by soil preparation thus lasts at least more than 10 years.

A statistical analysis of audience sound absorption (A)

The absorption produced by the audience in concert halls is considered a random variable. Beranek's proposal [L. L. Beranek, Music, Acoustics and Architecture (Wiley, New York, 1962), p. 543] that audience absorption is proportional to the area they occupy and not to their number is subjected to a statistical hypothesis test. A two variable linear regression model of the absorption with audience area and residual area as regressor variables is postulated for concert halls without added absorptive materials. Since Beranek's contention amounts to the statement that audience absorption is independent of the seating density, the test of the hypothesis lies in categorizing halls by seating density and examining for significant differences among slopes of regression planes of the different categories. Such a test shows that Beranek's hypothesis can be accepted. It is also shown that the audience area is a better predictor of the absorption than the audience number. The absorption coefficients and their 95% confidence limits are given for the audience and residual areas. A critique of the regression model is presented.

A maximal operator, Carleson's embedding, and tent spaces for vector-valued functions

This thesis is concerned with the area of vector-valued Harmonic Analysis, where the central theme is to determine how results from classical Harmonic Analysis generalize to functions with values in an infinite dimensional Banach space. The work consists of three articles and an introduction. The first article studies the Rademacher maximal function that was originally defined by T. Hytönen, A. McIntosh and P. Portal in 2008 in order to prove a vector-valued version of Carleson's embedding theorem. The boundedness of the corresponding maximal operator on Lebesgue-(Bochner) -spaces defines the RMF-property of the range space. It is shown that the RMF-property is equivalent to a weak type inequality, which does not depend for instance on the integrability exponent, hence providing more flexibility for the RMF-property. The second article, which is written in collaboration with T. Hytönen, studies a vector-valued Carleson's embedding theorem with respect to filtrations. An earlier proof of the dyadic version assumed that the range space satisfies a certain geometric type condition, which this article shows to be also necessary. The third article deals with a vector-valued generalizations of tent spaces, originally defined by R. R. Coifman, Y. Meyer and E. M. Stein in the 80's, and concerns especially the ones related to square functions. A natural assumption on the range space is then the UMD-property. The main result is an atomic decomposition for tent spaces with integrability exponent one. In order to suit the stochastic integrals appearing in the vector-valued formulation, the proof is based on a geometric lemma for cones and differs essentially from the classical proof. Vector-valued tent spaces have also found applications in functional calculi for bisectorial operators. In the introduction these three themes come together when studying paraproduct operators for vector-valued functions. The Rademacher maximal function and Carleson's embedding theorem were applied already by Hytönen, McIntosh and Portal in order to prove boundedness for the dyadic paraproduct operator on Lebesgue-Bochner -spaces assuming that the range space satisfies both UMD- and RMF-properties. Whether UMD implies RMF is thus an interesting question. Tent spaces, on the other hand, provide a method to study continuous time paraproduct operators, although the RMF-property is not yet understood in the framework of tent spaces.

Ecology of the Asian Elephant in Southern India. II. Feeding Habits and Crop Raiding Patterns

The Asian elephant's foraging strategy in its natural habitat and in cultivation was studied in southern India during 1981-83. Though elephants consumed at least 112 plant species in the study area, about 85% of their diet consisted of only 25 species from the order Malvales and the families Leguminosae, Palmae, Cyperaceae and Gramineae. Alteration between a predominantly browse diet during the dry season with a grass diet during the early wet season was related to the seasonally changing protein content of grasses. Crop raiding, which was sporadic during the dry season, gradually increased with more area being cultivated with the onset of rains. Raiding frequency reached a peak during October-December, with some villages being raided almost every night, when finger millet (Eleusine coracana) was cultivated by most farmers. The monthly frequency of raiding was related to the seasonal movement of elephant herds and to the size of the enclave. Of their total annual food requirement, adult bull elephants derived an estimated 9.3% and family herds 1.7% in quantity from cultivated land. Cultivated cereal and millet crops provided significantly more protein, calcium and sodium than the wild grasses. Ultimately, crop raiding can be thought of as an extension of the elephant's optimal foraging strategy.

Monitoring Indigenous Tropical Montane Forests in the Taita Hills Using Airborne Digital Camera Imagery

The loss and degradation of forest cover is currently a globally recognised problem. The fragmentation of forests is further affecting the biodiversity and well-being of the ecosystems also in Kenya. This study focuses on two indigenous tropical montane forests in the Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya. The study is a part of the TAITA-project within the Department of Geography in the University of Helsinki. The study forests, Ngangao and Chawia, are studied by remote sensing and GIS methods. The main data includes black and white aerial photography from 1955 and true colour digital camera data from 2004. This data is used to produce aerial mosaics from the study areas. The land cover of these study areas is studied by visual interpretation, pixel-based supervised classification and object-oriented supervised classification. The change of the forest cover is studied with GIS methods using the visual interpretations from 1955 and 2004. Furthermore, the present state of the study forests is assessed with leaf area index and canopy closure parameters retrieved from hemispherical photographs as well as with additional, previously collected forest health monitoring data. The canopy parameters are also compared with textural parameters from digital aerial mosaics. This study concludes that the classification of forest areas by using true colour data is not an easy task although the digital aerial mosaics are proved to be very accurate. The best classifications are still achieved with visual interpretation methods as the accuracies of the pixel-based and object-oriented supervised classification methods are not satisfying. According to the change detection of the land cover in the study areas, the area of indigenous woodland in both forests has decreased in 1955 2004. However in Ngangao, the overall woodland area has grown mainly because of plantations of exotic species. In general, the land cover of both study areas is more fragmented in 2004 than in 1955. Although the forest area has decreased, forests seem to have a more optimistic future than before. This is due to the increasing appreciation of the forest areas.

Structural Hypotheses And Raman-Spectroscopy Investigations Of Glasses Belonging To The B2s3-Li2s-Lii System

A previous B-11 nuclear magnetic resonance investigation of glasses belonging to the B2S3-Li2S-LiI system had allowed the authors to determine the variation of the number of three and four coordinated boron atoms with composition. These results, in addition to the observation that vitreous B2S3 quite easily forms fibres during casting, have led us to propose structural hypotheses for B2S3 based glasses, which are supported by the present Raman spectroscopy study. For vitreous B2S3 the spectra were accounted for on the basis of the various types of BS3/2 triangles proposed by the model. Molecular orbital considerations allowed us to assign the most significant lines for the binary glasses by assuming that BS3/2 triangles (with or without nonbridging sulphur atoms) and BS4 tetrahedra were present. In the ternary system, lithium iodide has been found to interact slightly on the structural entities, altering their vibrational characteristics without fundamentally modifying their nature.