The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: an assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia

Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.

Trends and Explanations for Socioeconomic Differences in Physical Activity

Very limited scientific knowledge exists on the trends and explanations of socioeconomic differences in physical activity among adults. There is a paucity of studies examining whether determinants vary across socioeconomic position and different life stages. This study examines a) how socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity have changed in Finland from 1978 to 2002 and b) the contribution of childhood socioeconomic position, adolescence sports and exercise, adulthood socioeconomic position, working conditions and other adulthood health behaviours to socioeconomic differences in leisure-time physical activity. This study utilised three population-based datasets collected by the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL, formerly National Institute for Public Health): the Health Behaviour and Health among the Finnish Adult Population Study from 1978 to 2002 (N=96 105), the National FINRISK Study 2002 and its physical activity sub-study (N= 9 179), and the Health 2000 Study (N=8 028). Survey information was collected by self-administered questionnaires, interviews at home, and measurements made at the study site. The response rates varied from 69 to 89 per cent. Several socioeconomic measures were linked from the national population registers. Based on the results, those with low income were physically inactive during leisure-time and while commuting from 1978 to 2002. Manual worker women, however, were more physically active commuters compared to their counterparts. Parental socioeconomic position contributed directly to adulthood educational differences in leisure-time physical inactivity but also indirectly through adulthood socioeconomic position (occupation, household income) and other unhealthy behaviours (mainly smoking). Among those with low education participation in competitive sports in youth and among those with high education exercise in late adolescence contributed to leisure-time physical activity in adulthood. Long exposure to physically strenuous working conditions in men and current job strain in women contributed to occupational class differences in leisure-time physical activity. Socioeconomic differences in physical activity have remained similar for twenty years in Finland. Educational career seems to have a strong contribution to physical activity. To adopt a lifelong physically active life-style, one should participate in a range of different sports and exercise in adolescence and in youth, have a low exposure to physically and mentally strenuous working conditions in later life and have other healthy behaviours in later life.

Measuring and reporting on social performance: From numbers and narratives to a useful framework for social enterprises

This paper examines the need for a framework for social enterprises to measure and report on social performance. Reviewing social reporting practice, and concepts central to financial reporting, this paper presents a framework for social performance reporting in the context of social enterprises. A Statement of Social Performance is developed, through consideration of social reporting approaches, influences, and issues in third sector and private sector organisations. This Statement is applied in the context of an employment and training social enterprise, demonstrating its application in practice.

Population, globalization and urbanization: Trends and underlying prosesses

Third World hinterlands provide most of the settings in which the quality of human life has improved the least over the decade since Our Common Future was published. This low quality of life promotes a desire for large number of offspring, fuelling population growth and an exodus to the urban centres of the Third World, Enhancing the quality of life of these people in ways compatible with the health of their environments is therefore the most significant of the challenges from the perspective of sustainable development. Human quality of life may be viewed in terms of access to goods, services and a satisfying social role. The ongoing processes of globalization are enhancing flows of goods worldwide, but these hardly reach the poor of Third World countrysides. But processes of globalization have also vastly improved everybody's access to Information, and there are excellent opportunities of putting this to good use to enhance the quality of life of the people of Third World countrysides through better access to education and health. More importantly, better access to information could promote a more satisfying social role through strengthening grass-roots involvement in development planning and management of natural resources. I illustrate these possibilities with the help of a series of concrete experiences form the south Indian state of Kerala. Such an effort does not call for large-scare material inputs, rather it calls for a culture of inform-and-share in place place of the prevalent culture of control-and-command. It calls for openness and transparency in transactions involving government agencies, NGOs, and national and transnational business enterprises. It calls for acceptance of accountability by such agencies.

Lowndes and Locke on the value of money

This paper was presented at the 11th Annual Conference of the European Society for the History of Economic Thought (ESHET).

Emerging trends and experiences in Asia-Pacific aquaculture: 2003

This document provides an overview of topical issues in Asian aquaculture for 2003, including a review of its status, progress in research and development, major issues and experiences, together with suggestions on actions for addressing opportunities and constraints. The document has been prepared by NACA and FAO to facilitate discussions at the 15th NACA Governing Council meeting, hosted by the Government of Sri Lanka on 21st-25th April 2004. The final version will be widely circulated as the editors hope it will prove a useful document for all involved in aquaculture, and related fishery development in the Asia-Pacific region. Pending feedback on this 2003 document, further reviews may be considered by NACA and FAO as a way of bringing together regularly in one publication relevant and key issues facing development of aquaculture in the Asia-Pacific region. (PDF contains 153 pages)

Application of participatory rural appraisal (PRA) techniques in the verification of fisheries data and trend on Lake Kainji

After several years of surveys on the Kainji Lake fisheries activities by the Nigerian German Kainji Lake Fish promotion Project (KLFPP) trends regarding catches, yield and other parameter begin to emerge. However, it became obvious that some of the data were not quite as accurate as they were believed to be. Looking at the different editions of the statistical bulletin of Kainji Lake, concerning one given fisheries parameter, sometimes it is possible to reveal inconsistencies and unexplained trends. As compared to the survey method, PRA is primarily for analysis of differences in local phenomenon and processes. Therefore, PRA was used as a complementary tool to enhance the knowledge on issues like fisher women, entrepreneurs, gear ownership structure, mode of operation by owners of large gear number, preference in the use of twine and nylon gill nets, and reasons for misinformation on the number of fishing equipment owned by entrepreneurs, which cannot be done with frame survey. PRA techniques like timeline, mapping, seasonal calendar, transect walk and key informant interviews were utilized in the study process

Environmental characterization of seasonal trends and foraging habitat of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in northern Gulf of Mexico bays

A description of the foraging habitat of a cetacean species is critical for conservation and effective management. We used a fine-scale microhabitat approach to examine patterns in bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) foraging distribution in relation to dissolved oxygen, turbidity, salinity, water depth, water temperature, and distance from shore measurements in a highly turbid estuary on the northern Gulf of Mexico. In general, environmental variation in the Barataria Basin marine environment comprises three primary axes of variability (i.e., factors: temperature and dissolved oxygen, salinity and turbidity, and distance and depth) that represent seasonal, spatial-seasonal, and spatial scales, respectively. Foraging sites were differentiated from nonforaging sites by significant differences among group size, temperature, turbidity, and season. Habitat selection analysis on individual variables indicated that foraging was more frequently observed in waters 4–6 m deep, 200–500 m from shore, and at salinity values of around 20 psu. This fine-scale and multivariate approach represents a useful method of exploring the complexity, gradation, and detail of the relationships between environmental variables and the foraging distribution patterns of bottlenose dolphin.

Trends and Potential Interactions Between Pinnipeds and Fisheries of New England and the U.S. West Coast

Long-term trends in the abundance and distribution of several pinniped species and commercially important fisheries of New England and the contiguous U.S. west coast are reviewed, and their actual and potential interactions discussed. Emphasis is on biological interactions or competition. The pinnipeds include the western North Atlantic stock of harbor seals, Phoca vitulina concolor; western North Atlantic gray seals, Halochoerus grypus; the U.S. stock of California sea lions, Zalophus californianus californianus; the eastern stock of Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus; and Pacific harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii. Fisheries included are those for Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua; silver hake, Merluccius bilinearis; Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus; the coastal stock of Pacific whiting, Merluccius productus; market squid, Loligo opalescens; northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax; Pacific her-ring, Clupea pallasi; and Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax. Most of these pinniped populations have grown exponentially since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act in 1972. They exploit a broad prey assemblage that includes several commercially valuable species. Direct competition with fisheries is therefore possible, as is competition for the prey of commercially valuable fish. The expanding pinniped populations, fluctuations in commercial fish biomass, and level of exploitation by the fisheries may affect this potential for competition. Concerns over pinnipeds impacting fisheries (especially those with localized spawning stocks or at low biomass levels) are more prevalent than concerns over fisheries’ impacts on pinnipeds. This review provides a framework to further evaluate potential biological interactions between these pinniped populations and the commercial fisheries with which they occur.

Hawaii's Marine Fisheries: Some History, Long-term Trends, and Recent Developments

This paper provides an overview of Hawaii's marine fisheries from 1948 to the present. After three decades of decline following a brief period of growth at the conclusion to World War lI, Hawaii's commercial fisheries began a decade of sustained development in the 1980's. At the same time, fisheries management issues became more significant as different segments of the fishery came into more direct competition. This paper provides new estimates of commercial landings for the 1977-90 period, and summarizes limited information on recreational and subsistence fisheries in the 1980's. It also provides some historical context which may be useful in evaluating fishery development and management options.

Trends and long-term variability of ocean properties at Ocean Station P in the northeast Pacific Ocean [abstract]

Twenty-seven years (1956-1983) of oceanographic data collected at Ocean Station P (50°N/145°W), as well as supplementary data obtained in its neighborhood, have been examined for trends and interannual variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean. There is evidence that the water is warming and freshening and that the isopycnal surfaces are deepening. Trends in oxyty are mostly not significant. The most common periods for the interannual variability appear to be 2 1/2 and 6-7 years. The vertical movement of water accounts for one half of the changes in temperature and salinity and 30% of those in oxyty. Other factors, such as a shift of water masses, may also be important.