Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Kids, counselors and troubles-telling : morality-in-action in talk on an Australian children’s helpline

This article begins with the premise that morality is an intrinsic, although often invisible, aspect of everyday social action. Drawn from a corpus of fifty audiorecorded telephone calls to Kids Helpline, an Australian helpline for children and young people, we examine one call to show how the young caller and counsellor co-construct ‘morality-in-action’. Ethnomethodological understandings and, in particular, Sacks’ (1992) description of ‘Class 2’ rules and infractions show how an adolescent caller and counsellor collaboratively assemble moral versions of the caller. In puzzling out possible motives, the caller and counsellor can be seen to be attending to the implications of different moral versions of the caller. This attribution of motives is moral work in action, with motives contingently assembled, displayed and evaluated, with such work understood as displays of moral reasoning. The counselling call makes visible the counsellor’s interactional work to support and empower the client. Analysis such as this offers counsellors ways of understanding and making visible their interactional and moral work within helpline call interactions.

A semi-alternating direction method for a 2-D fractional FitzHugh–Nagumo monodomain model on an approximate irregular domain

A FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model has been used to describe the propagation of the electrical potential in heterogeneous cardiac tissue. In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model on an irregular domain. The model consists of a coupled Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and an ordinary differential equation, describing the ionic fluxes as a function of the membrane potential. Secondly, we use a decoupling technique and focus on solving the Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model. A novel spatially second-order accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method (SIADM) for this model on an approximate irregular domain is proposed. Thirdly, stability and convergence of the SIADM are proved. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis and these numerical techniques are employed to simulate a two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo model on both an approximate circular and an approximate irregular domain.

Impact of technology uptake on an Australian electricity distribution network

This paper presents simulation results for future electricity grids using an agent-based model developed with MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model). MODAM is introduced and its use demonstrated through four simulations based on a scenario that expects a rise of on-site renewable generators and electric vehicles (EV) usage. The simulations were run over many years, for two areas in Townsville, Australia, capturing variability in space of the technology uptake, and for two charging methods for EV, capturing people's behaviours and their impact on the time of the peak load. Impact analyses of these technologies were performed over the areas, down to the distribution transformer level, where greater variability of their contribution to the assets peak load was observed. The MODAM models can be used for different purposes such as impact of renewables on grid sizing, or on greenhouse gas emissions. The insights gained from using MODAM for technology assessment are discussed.

How does Australian diabetic foot screening rate on an international Stage?

Background From the conservative estimates of registrants with the National Diabetes Supply Scheme, we will be soon passing 1.1 Million Australians affected by all types of diabetes. The diabetes complications of foot ulceration and amputation are costly to all. These costs can be reduced with appropriate prevention strategies, starting with identifying people at risk through primary care diabetic foot screening. However, levels of diabetic foot screening in Australia are difficult to quantify. Methods This presentation reports on foot screening rates as recorded in the academic literature, national health surveys and national database reports. The focus is on type 1 and type 2 diabetes in adults, and not gestational diabetes or children. Literature searches included diabetic foot screening that occurred in the primary care setting for populations over 2000 people from 2002 to 2014. Searches were performed using Medline and CINAHL as well as internet searches of OECD health databases. The primary outcome measure was foot -screening rates as a percentage of adult diabetic population. Results The lack of a national diabetes database and register hampers efforts to analyse diabetic foot screening levels. The most recent and accurate level for Australian population review was in the AUSDIAB (Australian Diabetes and lifestyle survey) from 2004. This survey reported screening in primary care to be as low as 50%. Countries such as the United Kingdom and United States of America report much higher rates of foot screening (67-88%) using national databases and web based initiatives that involve patients and clinicians. Conclusions Australian rates of diabetic foot screening in primary care centres is ambiguous. Uptake of national registers, incentives and web based systems improve levels of diabetic foot assessment which are the first steps to a healthier diabetic population.

Remixing Canadian copyright law: A review essay on'An Emerging Intellectual Property Paradigm','Canadian Copyright: A Citizen's Guide'; and'RiP!: A Remix Manifesto', Prometheus, Vol. 27 (3), p. 297-305

In her album, Hymns of the 49th Parallel, the chanteuse K.D. Lang pays tribute to a series of great Canadian songwriters—such as Neil Young, Leonard Cohen, Joni Mitchell and Jane Siberry. In a similar spirit of celebration, this review essay pays homage to a number of recent texts and films dealing with Canadian intellectual property. First, it considers Ysolde Gendreau’s collection, An Emerging Intellectual Property Paradigm: Perspectives from Canada. Second, this essay looks at Laura Murray and Samuel Trosow’s manual, Canadian Copyright: A Citizen’s Guide. Finally, this review evaluates Brett Gaylor’s documentary, RiP! A Remix Manifesto. The three works share certain affinities—a spirit of scepticism about the legitimacy and the efficacy of existing networks of law, policy and bureaucracy; a populist interest in the impact of intellectual property on the everyday lives of citizens, creators and consumers; a passion for human rights; and a melioristic desire for sensible law reform of copyright law and related regimes of intellectual property.

Semi-analytical finite element analysis of a strip footing on an elastic reinforced soil

A plane strain elastic interaction analysis of a strip footing resting on a reinforced soil bed has been made by using a combined analytical and finite element method (FEM). In this approach the stiffness matrix for the footing has been obtained using the FEM, For the reinforced soil bed (halfplane) the stiffness matrix has been obtained using an analytical solution. For the latter, the reinforced zone has been idealised as (i) an equivalent orthotropic infinite strip (composite approach) and (ii) a multilayered system (discrete approach). In the analysis, the interface between the strip footing and reinforced halfplane has been assumed as (i) frictionless and (ii) fully bonded. The contact pressure distribution and the settlement reduction have been given for different depths of footing and scheme of reinforcement in soil. The load-deformation behaviour of the reinforced soil obtained using the above modelling has been compared with some available analytical and model test results. The equivalent orthotropic approach proposed in this paper is easy to program and is shown to predict the reinforcing effects reasonably well.

Learner driver mentor programs: Stakeholder perspectives on an ideal program

This study investigated the development and operation of Learner Driver Mentor Programs (LDMPs). LDMPs are used throughout Australia to assist young learner drivers to gain supervised on-road driving experience through coordinated access to vehicles and supervisors. There is a significant lack of research regarding these programs. In this study, 41 stakeholders including representatives from existing or ceased LDMPs as well as representatives of other groups completed a questionnaire in either survey or interview format. The questionnaire sought information about the objectives of LDMPs, any social problems that were targeted as well as the characteristics of an ideal program and what could be done to improve them. Stakeholders indicated that LDMPs were targeted at local communities and, therefore, there should be a clear local need for the program as well as community ownership and involvement in the program. Additionally, the program needed to be accessible and provide clear positive outcomes for mentees. The most common suggestion to improve LDMPs related to the provision of greater funding and sponsorship, particularly in relation to the vehicles used within the programs. LDMPs appear to have an important role in facilitating young learner drivers to acquire the appropriate number of supervised hours of driving practice. However, while a number of factors appear related to a successful program, the program must remain flexible and suitable for its local community. There is a clear need to complete evaluations of existing programs to ensure that future LDMPs and modifications to existing programs are evidence-based.

Periodic Rayleigh waves of finite amplitude on an isotropic solid

Existence of a periodic progressive wave solution to the nonlinear boundary value problem for Rayleigh surface waves of finite amplitude is demonstrated using an extension of the method of strained coordinates. The solution, obtained as a second-order perturbation of the linearized monochromatic Rayleigh wave solution, contains harmonics of all orders of the fundamental frequency. It is shown that the higher harmonic content of the wave increases with amplitude, but the slope of the waveform remains finite so long as the amplitude is less than a critical value.

On an unexpected career path? Using Wittgenstein’s Family Resemblance concept to determine the power of projects to transform project management careers

The power of projects has been demonstrated by the growth in their use across an increasing range of industries and workplaces in recent years. Not only has the number of people involved in project management increased, but the qualifications and backgrounds of those people have also broadened, with engineering no longer being the only path to project management (PM). Predicting the career trajectories in Project Management has become more important for both organisations employing project managers and project managers building career portfolios. Our research involved interviewing more than 75 project officers and project managers across a range of industries to explore their career journey. We used Wittgenstein’s family resemblance theory is to analyse the information from the transcripts to identify the extent to which the roles of participants fit with the commonly accepted definition of project management. Findings demonstrate diversity of project manager backgrounds and experiences and relational competencies across these backgrounds that form and shape PM careers.

On an analytical-numerical procedure for the analysis of cylindrical shells with arbitrarily oriented cracks

An analytical-numerical procedure for obtaining stress intensity factor solutions for an arbitrarily oriented crack in a long, thin circular cylindrical shell is presented. The method of analysis involves obtaining a series solution to the governing shell equation in terms of Mathieu and modified Mathieu functions by the method of separation of variables and satisfying the crack surface boundary conditions numerically using collocation. The solution is then transformed from elliptic coordinates to polar coordinates with crack tip as the origin through a Taylor series expansion and membrane and bending stress intensity factors are computed. Numerical results are presented and discussed for the pressure loading case.

Fate of applied biosolids nitrogen in a cut and remove forage system on an alluvial clay loam soil

The fate of nitrogen (N) applied in biosolids was investigated in a forage production system on an alluvial clay loam soil in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Biosolids were applied in October 2002 at rates of 6, 12, 36, and 54dryt/ha for aerobically digested biosolids (AE) and 8, 16, 48, and 72dryt/ha for anaerobically digested biosolids (AN). Rates were based on multiples of the Nitrogen Limited Biosolids Application rate (0.5, 1, 3, and 4.5NLBAR) for each type of biosolid. The experiment included an unfertilised control and a fertilised control that received multiple applications of synthetic fertiliser. Forage sorghum was planted 1 week after biosolids application and harvested 4 times between December 2002 and May 2003. Dry matter production was significantly greater from the biosolids-treated plots (21-27t/ha) than from the unfertilised (16t/ha) and fertilised (18t/ha) controls. The harvested plant material removed an extra 148-488kg N from the biosolids-treated plots. Partial N budgets were calculated for the 1NLBAR and 4.5NLBAR treatments for each biosolids type at the end of the crop season. Crop removal only accounted for 25-33% of the applied N in the 1NLBAR treatments and as low as 8-15% with 4.5NLBAR. Residual biosolids N was predominantly in the form of organic N (38-51% of applied biosolids N), although there was also a significant proportion (10-23%) as NO3-N, predominantly in the top 0.90m of the soil profile. From 12 to 29% of applied N was unaccounted for, and presumed to be lost as gaseous nitrogen and/or ammonia, as a consequence of volatilisation or denitrification, respectively. In-season mineralisation of organic N in biosolids was 43-59% of the applied organic N, which was much greater than the 15% (AN)-25% (AE) expected, based on current NLBAR calculation methods. Excessive biosolids application produced little additional biomass but led to high soil mineral N concentrations that were vulnerable to multiple loss pathways. Queensland Guidelines need to account for higher rates of mineralisation and losses via denitrification and volatilisation and should therefore encourage lower application rates to achieve optimal plant growth and minimise the potential for detrimental impacts on the environment.

Walter, Freddy, Kurt and Elizabeth Gottschalk with their mother Therese Gottschalk nee Molling, and the maid on an easter egg hunt; Hannover, Germany.

From left to right: Walter Gottschalk, Therese Gottschalk nee Molling, Freddy Gottschalk, the maid, Kurt Gottschalk, and Elizabeth Gottschalk

Leo Catzenstein seated on an outdoor bench Portraits Men

Digital Image

Implementing music therapy on an adolescent inpatient unit: A mixed-methods evaluation of acceptability, experience of participation and perceived impact

Objective: We aimed to assess the feasibility of delivering a music therapy program on adolescent psychiatric wards. Method: We undertook a mixed-methods evaluation of a pilot program. Various active and receptive techniques were employed in group music therapy sessions delivered as part of a structured clinical program. Data collected in interviews with participants and staff and feedback questionnaires were thematically and descriptively analysed and triangulated. Results: Data from 62 questionnaires returned by 43 patients who took part in 16 music therapy sessions, and seven staff, evidenced strong support for music therapy. Patients typically reported experiencing sessions as relaxing, comforting, uplifting, and empowering; >90% would participate by choice and use music therapeutically in the future. Staff endorsed music therapy as valuable therapeutically, reporting that patients engaged enthusiastically and identified sessions as improving their own moods and ward milieu. Conclusions: Integration of music therapy in inpatient treatment of adolescents is feasible and acceptable, and is valued by staff and patients as a complement to ‘talking therapies’. Participation is enjoyed and associated with outcomes including improvement in mood, expression of feelings and social engagement consistent with recovery.