Empatia e trajetórias de desenvolvimento em famílias de jovens do Rio de Janeiro

A empatia, definida como a habilidade de compartilhar, compreender e de expressar o entendimento dos pensamentos e sentimentos dos outros, tem sido amplamente estudada. As trajetórias de desenvolvimento, que representam os diversos caminhos que o desenvolvimento do self pode tomar, também têm sido amplamente estudadas por pesquisadores transculturais, geralmente em contextos prototípicos e envolvendo três modelos de desenvolvimento do self: autonomia, interdependência e autonomia relacionada. Estudos anteriores mostraram que os participantes do Rio de Janeiro tendem para a autonomia relacionada, equlibrando características autônomas e relacionais, que são parte do nosso ambiente sociocultural, no qual habilidades sociais, como a empatia, são requeridas. O desenvolvimento da empatia pode ser relacionado à demanda ambiental por comportamentos, de acordo com aspectos sociodemográficos e valores compartilhados. Esta tese visa apresentar dados de 106 famílias do Rio de Janeiro: pai (idade média M = 51,6 anos), mãe (idade média M = 48,3 anos) e seus filhos jovens (17-25 anos, idade média M = 20,9 anos, 67,9% mulheres). A maioria dos pais, mães e dos filhos tinham Ensino Superior incompleto ou acima. Este estudo objetivou investigar a relação entre empatia e os modelos de desenvolvimento de self e a transmissão transgeracional em contexto não prototípico. O Inventário de Empatia de Falcone e colaboradores (IE) foi utilizado para avaliar a empatia. As Escalas de Desenvolvimento do Self de Kağitçibaşi (EDS), (Self Autônomo (AutS), Self Interdependente (IntS) de Self Autônomo-Relacionado (ARS)) foram utilizadas para avaliar o modelo de desenvolvimento do self. Filhos também responderam quantas horas semanais conviviam com pais e mães. Testes t pareados mostraram, como esperado, que os escores de ARS foram os mais altos para todos os participantes. Correlações de Pearson foram feitas entre os escores de IE e EDS de ambos os pais e filhos. Os escores de ARS de pais, mães e filhos correlacionaram-se positivamente, assim como seus escores de IE. Examinando entre instrumentos, para pais e filhos, altos escores em ARS foram correlacionados a altos escores de IE. O tempo de convívio relatado entre pais e filhos correlacionou-se com IntS e IE dos pais. Para testar o modelo teórico proposto de ARS de pais e mães e dos filhos e a empatia de ambos os pais como preditores da empatia dos filhos, análises de regressão foram utilizadas. A empatia dos pais e das mães previu, separadamente, a empatia dos filhos, mas não em conjunto. Nenhum dos escores ARS dos participantes previu o IE dos filhos. Estes resultados favorecem a hipótese da prevalência de selves autônomo-relacionados no Rio de Janeiro. Pais, mães e filhos mostraram similaridades e tiveram relações importantes entre seus escores de EDS, assim como para o IE. Apesar de o modelo com todos juntos não ter sido significativo, separadamente o IE de pais e de mães predisse o IE dos filhos. Este resultado sugere que a empatia parental pode ter algum efeito sobre a dos filhos jovens, mas não o modelo parental de desenvolvimento do self, inesperadamente. De modo interessante, os pais apresentaram um papel importante no desenvolvimento de seus filhos

Microstructural optimization of cellular acoustic materials

A microstructure based acoustic model is introduced, which can be used to optimize the microstructure of cellular materials and thus to obtain their optimal acoustic property. This acoustic model is an unsteady one which is appropriate in the limit of low Reynolds numbers. The model involves three elements. This first involves the propagation of acoustic waves passing the cylinders whose axes are aligned parallel to the direction of propagation. The second model relates to the propagation of acoustic waves passing the cylinders whose axes are aligned perpendicular to the direction of propagation. In both cases the interaction between adjacent cylinders is taken into account by considering the effect of polygonal periodic boundary conditions. As these two models are linear they are combined to give the characteristics of propagation at arbitrary incidence. The third model involves propagation passing spheres in order to represent the joints. Heat transfer is also included. These three models are then used to expand the design space and calculate the optimum cell structure for desired acoustic performance in a number of different applications. Moreover, the application fields are also analyzed.

The study and production of fish sauce from Caspian Sea lam fish with traditional fermentation method and microbe and enzyme adding method and identification of important bacteria

Fish sauce is a popular fermented product used in south Asian countries which is made from different small fishes in this research work it was attempted to produce fish sauce from kilka of the Caspian sea, the fish sauce was made from three models of kilka ,such as whole kilka , cooked whole kilka and dressed kilka , each of these models treated it four different fashions of fermentation such as:1- Traditional method, 2- Enzymatic method 3- Microbial method, 4- Mixture of enzyme and microb The results of this investigation showed that time of fermentation for the traditional method was six month, enzymatic method one month, microbial method 3 month and the mixture of enzyme and microb 1 month. The rate of fermentation was least for dressed Kilka, microbial and biochemical changes of Kilka fish sauce were evaluated, total bacterial count was 2.1-6.15 log cfu/ml total volatile nitrogen (TVN) in samples recorded was 250 mg /100g, the amount of protein varied between 10-13 percent, the name of commercial enzymes added was Protamex and Flavourzyme, the bacteria added was L act ob acillus and Pediococous, fish sauce containers fish and 20% salt, temperature of keeping for fermentation was 37 degree c for 6 month.

Comparative studies on parallel and antiparallel duplex and triplex DNA

Parallel strand models for base sequences d(A)(10). d(T)(10), d(AT)(5) . d(TA)(5), d(G(5)C(5)). d(C(5)G(5)), d(GC)(5) . d(CG)(5) and d(CTATAGGGAT). d(GATATCCCTA), where reverse Watson-Crick A-T pairing with two H-bonds and reverse Watson-Crick G-C pairing with one H-bond or with two H-bonds were adopted, and three models of d(T)(14). d(A)(14). d(T)(14) triple helix with different strand orientations were built up by molecular architecture and energy minimization. Comparisons of parallel duplex models with their corresponding B-DNA models and comparisons among the three triple helices showed: (i) conformational energies of parallel AT duplex models were a little lower, while for GC duplex models they were about 8% higher than that of their corresponding B-DNA models; (ii) the energy differences between parallel and B-type duplex models and among the three triple helices arose mainly from base stacking energies, especially for GC base pairing; (iii) the parallel duplexes with one H-bond G-C pairs were less stable than those with two H-bonds G-C pairs. The present paper includes a brief discussion about the effect of base stacking and base sequences on DNA conformations. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited.

REE示踪条带施放法研究坡面土壤侵蚀垂直分布规律

通过室内模拟和野外小区试验，采用中子活化分析手段，进行了运用ＲＥＥ 示踪条带施放法研究坡面土壤侵蚀垂直分布的可行性分析。结果表明：示踪元素条带施放法研究土壤侵蚀，可定量分析黄土坡面不同坡段的相对侵蚀量，具有满意的试验精度，并揭示了产沙强度随坡长存在３ 种变化模式。

An estimate of divergence time of parazoa and eumetazoa and that of cephalochordata and vertebrata by aldolase and triose phosphate isomerase clocks

Previously we suggested that four proteins including aldolase and triose phosphate isomerase (TPI) evolved with approximately constant rates over long periods covering the whole animal phyla. The constant rates of aldolase and TPI evolution were reexamined based on three different models for estimating evolutionary distances, It was shown that the evolutionary rates remain essentially unchanged in comparisons not only between different classes of vertebrates but also between vertebrates and arthropods and even between animals and plants, irrespective of the models used, Thus these enzymes might be useful molecular clocks for inferring divergence times of animal phyla, To know the divergence time of Parazoa and Eumetazoa and that of Cephalochordata and Vertebrata, the aldolase cDNAs from Ephydatia fluviatilis, a freshwater sponge, and the TPI cDNAs from Ephydatia fluviatilis and Branchiostoma belcheri an amphioxus, have been cloned and sequenced, Comparisons of the deduced amino acid sequences of aldolase and TPI from the freshwater sponge with known sequences revealed that the Parazoa-Eumetazoa split occurred about 940 million years ago (Ma) as determined by the average of two proteins and three models, Similarly, the aldolase and TPI clocks suggest that vertebrates and amphioxus last shared a common ancestor around 700 Ma and they possibly diverged shortly after the divergence of deuterostomes and protostomes.

VTI各向异性叠前深度偏移及速度分析

Theoretical research, laboratory test and field observation show that most of sediment rock has anisotropic features. It will produce some notable errors when applying isotropic methods such as prestack depth migration and velocity analysis to dada acquired under anisotropic condition; it also has a bad effect on geologic interpretation. Generally speaking, the vertical transverse isotropic media is a good approximation to geologic structure, thus it has an important realistic meaning for anisotropic prestack depth migration theory researching and precise complex geologic imaging if considering anisotropic effect of seismic wave propagation. There are two indispensable parts in prestack depth migration of realistic records, one is proper prestack depth migration algorithm, and the other is velocity analysis using prestack seismic data. The paper consists of the two aspects. Based on implicit finite difference research proposed by Dietrich Ristow et al （1997） about VTI media prestack depth migration, the paper proposed split-step Fourier prestack depth migration algorithm （VTISSF） and Fourier finite difference algorithm （VTIFFD） based on wave equation for VTI media, program are designed and the depth migration method are tested using synthetic model. The result shows that VTISSF is a stable algorithm, it generally gets a good result if the reflector dip is not very steep, while undermigration phenomena appeared in steep dips case; the VTIFFD algorithm bring us better result in steep dips with lower efficiency and frequency dispersion. For anisotropic prestack depth migration velocity analysis of VTI media, The paper discussed the basic hypothesis of VTI model in velocity analysis algorithm, basis of anisotropic prestack depth migration velocity analysis and travel time table calculation of VTI media in integral prestack depth migration. Then , analyzed the P-wave common imaging gather in the case of homogeneous velocity and vertically variable velocity . studied the residual correction in common imaging gather produced by media parameter error, analyzed the condition of flat event and correct depth in common imaging gather . In this case, the anisotropic model parameter vector is , is vertical velocity of a point at top surface, is vertical velocity gradient, and are anisotropic parameter. We can get vertical velocity gradient from seismic data; then the P-wave common imaging gather of VTI media whose velocity varies in vertical and horizontal direction, the relationship between media parameter and event residual time shift of common image gather are studied. We got the condition of flattening common imaging gather with correct depth. In this case the anisotropic model parameter vector is , is velocity gradient in horizontal direction. As a result, the vertical velocity grads can be decided uniquely, but horizontal velocity grads and anisotropic parameter can’t be distinguished if no priori information available, our method is to supply parameter by velocity scanning; then, as soon as is supplied we can get another four parameters of VTI media from seismic data. Based on above analysis, the paper discussed the feasibility of migration velocity analysis in vertically and horizontally varied VTI media, synthetic record of three models are used to test the velocity analysis method . Firstly, anisotropic velocity analysis test is done using a simple model with one block, then we used a model with multiple blocks, thirdly, we analyzed the anisotropic velocity using a part of Marmousi model. The model results show that this velocity analysis method is feasible and correct.

贝尔凹陷苏德尔特构造带古潜山构造与储层研究

With the develop ment of oil and gas exploration, the conventional struc ture exploration era has gradually been substituted by the concealed reser voir exploration technology. Hill poll becomes one of the most important areas in the future exploration. This paper is based on the three-dimensional seismic interpretation of Sudeerte structure. In terms of the overall character istics of Sudeerte structure, we use the coherent cube and the time slice to interpret the fault in plane. For the interpretation，we especially used the well to adjust the interpretation results. The results of seismic attribution analysis, spectrum decomposition and post- stack seismic inversion forecast that hill pools reservoir are dist ributed in several bands along the north-northeast to northeast-east. Xing'anling Group shows that the potential reser voirs are mainly distributed along Bei 14 –Bei 40 and De (99-212) - Bei (16-1) and Budate Group distributed along Bei 14 –Bei 40 in northwestern direction and De (99-212) - Bei (16-1) in north eastern direction. At the same time, by analyzing the structure and the reservoir, and combining with other data, three models are built. The characteristics of reservoirs dist ribution are concl uded，and potent ional favorable exploration dire ctions are predi cted.

济阳-昌潍坳陷火成岩油气藏体系形成机理和分布规律研究

Jiyang & Changwei depressions are two neighboring depressions in Bahai Bay Basin, the famous oil rich basin in East China. The exploration activities in the past 40 years has proved that, within the basins, there exists not only plentiful sandstone hydrocarbon reservoirs (conventional), but also abundant special reservoirs as igneous rock, mudstone and conglomerate ones which have been knowing as the unconventional in the past, and with the prospecting activity is getting more and more detailed, the unconventional reservoirs are also getting more and more important for further resources, among which, the igneous lithological reservoir be of significance as a new research and exploration area. The purpose of this paper is, with the historical researches and data as base, the System Theory, Practice Theory and Modern Comprehensive Petroleum Geology Theory as guide, the theoretical and practice break through as the goal, and the existing problems in the past as the break through direction, to explore and establish a valid reservoir formation and distribution models for igneous strata in the profile of the eastern faulted basins. After investigating the distribution of the igneous rocks and review the history of the igneous rocks reservoirs in basins, the author focused on the following issues and correspondingly the following progresses have been made: 1.Come to a new basin evolution and structure model named "Combined-Basin-bodies Model" for Jiyang even Eastern faulted basins based on the study on the origin and evolution of Jiyang & Changwei basins, depending on this model, every faulted basin in the Bo-hai Bay Basin is consisted of three Basin-Bodies including the Lower (Mesozoic), Middle (Early Tertiary) and the Upper (Late Tertiary) Bodies, each evolved in different geo-stress setting and with different basin trend, shape and igneous-sedimentary buildings system, and from this one to next one, the basin experienced a kind of process named "shape changing" and "Style changing". 2. Supposed a serious of new realizations as follows (1) There were "multi-level magma sources" including Upper mantel and the Lower, Middle and even the Upper Shell magma Chambers in the historical Magma Processes in the basins; (2) There were "multi-magma accessing or pass" from the first level (Mantel faults) to the second, third and fourth levels (that is the different levels of fault in the basin sediment strata) worked in the geo-historical and magma processes; (3) Three tectonic magma cycles and more periods have been recognized those are matched with the "Basin -body-Model" and (4)The geo-historical magma processes were non-homogeneous in time and space scale and so the magma rocks distributed in "zones" or "belts". 3. The study of magma process's effect on basin petroleum conditions have been made and the following new conclusions were reached: (1) the eruptive rocks were tend to be matched with the "caped source rock", and the magma process were favorable to the maturing of the source rocks. (2) The magma process were fruitful to the accumulation of the non-hydrocarbon reservoirs however a over magma process may damage the grade of resource rock; (3) Eruptive activity provided a fruitful environment for the formation of such new reservoir rocks as "co-eruptive turbidity sandstones" and "thermal water carbonate rocks" and the intrusive process can lead to the origin of "metamorphism rock reservoir"; (4) even if the intrusive process may cause the cap rock broken, the late Tertiary intrusive rocks may indeed provide the lateral seal and act as the cap rock locally even regionally. All above progresses are valuable for reconstructing the magma-sedimentary process history and enriching the theory system of modem petroleum geology. 4. A systematic classification system has been provided and the dominating factors for the origin and distribution of igneous rock reservoirs have been worked out based on the systematic case studies, which are as follows: (1) The classification is given based on multi-factors as the origin type, litho-phase, type of reservoir pore, reservoir ability etc., (2) Each type of reservoir was characterized in a detailed way; (3) There are 7 factors dominated the intrusive reservoir's characteristics including depth of intrusion, litho-facies of surrounding rocks, thickness of intrusive rock, intrusive facies, frequency and size of the working faults, shape and tectonic deformation of rock, erosion strength of the rock and the time of the intrusion ect., in the contrast, 4 factors are for eruptive rocks as volcanic facies, frequency and size of the working faults, strength of erosion and the thermal water processing. 5. Several new concept including "reservoir litho-facies", "composite-volcanic facies" and "reservoir system" ect. Were suggested, based on which the following models were established: (1) A seven reservoir belts model for a intrusive unit profile and further more, (2) a three layers cubic model consisted of three layer as "metamorphic roe layer", "marginal layer" and "the core"; (3) A five zones vertical reservoir sequence model consisted of five litho-facies named A, B, C, D and E for a original lava unit and furthermore three models respectively for a erosion, subsidence and faulted lava unit; (4) A composite volcanic face model for a lava cone or a composite cone that is consisted of three facies as "crater and nearby face", "middle slope" and "far slope", among which, the middle slope face is the most potential reservoir area and producible for oil & gas. 6. The concept of "igneous reservoir" was redefined as the igneous, and then a new concept of "igneous reservoir system" was supposed which means the reservoir system consisted of igneous and associated non-igneous reservoirs, with non-hydrocarbon reservoir included. 7. The origin and distribution of igneous reservoir system were probed and generalized for the exploration applications, and origin models of the main reservoir sub-systems have been established including those of igneous, related non-igneous and non-hydrocarbon. For intrusive rocks, two reservoir formation models have been suggested, one is called "Original or Primary Model", and the another one is "Secondary Model"; Similarly, the eruptive rock reservoirs were divided in three types including "Highly Produced", "Moderately Produced" and "Lowly Produced" and accordingly their formation models were given off; the related non-igneous reservoir system was considered combination of eight reservoirs, among which some ones like the Above Anticline Trap are highly produced; Also, the non-hydrocarbon. Trap system including five kinds of traps was discussed. 8. The concept models for four reservoir systems were suggested, which include the intrusive system consisted of 7 kinds of traps, the land eruptive system with 6 traps, the under water eruptive system including 6 kinds of traps and the non-hydrocarbon system combined by 5 kinds of traps. In this part, the techniques for exploration of igneous reservoir system were also generalized and probed, and based on which and the geological progresses of this paper, the potential resources and distributions of every reservoir system was evaluated and about 186 millions of reserves and eight most potential non-hydrocarbon areas were predicted and outlined. The author believe that the igneous reservoir system is a very important exploration area and its study is only in its early stage, the framework of this paper should be filled with more detailed studies, and only along way, the exploration of igneous reservoir system can go into it's really effective stage.

青藏高原东部电性结构特征及地球动力学意义

As the largest and highest plateau on the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has been a key location for understanding the processes of mountain building and plateau formation during India-Asia continent-continent collision. As the front-end of the collision, the geological structure of eastern Tibetan Plateau is very complex. It is ideal as a natural laboratory for investigating the formation and evolution of the Tibetan Plateau. Institute of Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) carried out MT survey from XiaZayii to Qingshuihe in the east part of the plateau in 1998. After error analysis and distortion analysis, the Non-linear Conjugate Gradient inversion(NLCG), Rapid Relaxation Inversin (RRI) and 2D OCCAM Inversion algorithms were used to invert the data. The three models obtained from 3 algorithms provided similar electrical structure and the NLCG model fit the observed data better than the other two models. According to the analysis of skin depth, the exploration depth of MT in Tibet is much more shallow than in stable continent. For example, the Schmucker depth at period 100s is less than 50km in Tibet, but more than 100km in Canadian Shield. There is a high conductivity layer at the depth of several kilometers beneath middle Qiangtang terrane, and almost 30 kilometers beneath northern Qiangtang terrane. The sensitivity analysis of the data predicates that the depth and resistivity of the crustal high conductivity layer are reliable. The MT results provide a high conductivity layer at 20~40km depth, where the seismic data show a low velocity zone. The experiments show that the rock will dehydrate and partially melt in the relative temperature and pressure. Fluids originated from dehydration and partial melting will seriously change rheological characteristics of rock. Therefore, This layer with low velocity and high conductivity layer in the crust is a weak layer. There is a low velocity path at the depth of 90-110 km beneath southeastern Tibetan Plateau and adjacent areas from seismology results. The analysis on the temperature and rheological property of the lithosphere show that the low velocity path is also weak. GPS measurements and the numerical simulation of the crust-mantle deformation show that the movement rate is different for different terranes. The regional strike derived from decomposition analysis for different frequency band and seismic anisotropy indicate that the crust and upper mantle move separately instead of as a whole. There are material flow in the eastern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, the faults, the crustal and upper mantle weak layers are three different boundaries for relatively movement. Those results support the "two layer wedge plates" geodynamic model on Tibetan formation and evolution.

Power dissipation in nanoscale conductors: classical, semi-classical and quantum dynamics

Modelling Joule heating is a difficult problem because of the need to introduce correct correlations between the motions of the ions and the electrons. In this paper we analyse three different models of current induced heating (a purely classical model, a fully quantum model and a hybrid model in which the electrons are treated quantum mechanically and the atoms are treated classically). We find that all three models allow for both heating and cooling processes in the presence of a current, and furthermore the purely classical and purely quantum models show remarkable agreement in the limit of high biases. However, the hybrid model in the Ehrenfest approximation tends to suppress heating. Analysis of the equations of motion reveals that this is a consequence of two things: the electrons are being treated as a continuous fluid and the atoms cannot undergo quantum fluctuations. A means for correcting this is suggested.

Dynamic pricing model and algorithm for perishable products with fuzzy demand (ABS 2* Journal)

This paper studies the dynamic pricing problem of selling fixed stock of perishable items over a finite horizon, where the decision maker does not have the necessary historic data to estimate the distribution of uncertain demand, but has imprecise information about the quantity demand. We model this uncertainty using fuzzy variables. The dynamic pricing problem based on credibility theory is formulated using three fuzzy programming models, viz.: the fuzzy expected revenue maximization model, a-optimistic revenue maximization model, and credibility maximization model. Fuzzy simulations for functions with fuzzy parameters are given and embedded into a genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve these three models. Finally, a real-world example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the developed model and algorithm.

Holding parties responsible at election time: Multi-level, multi-party government and electoral accountability

This paper highlights the crucial role played by party-specific responsibility attributions in performance-based voting. Three models of electoral accountability, which make distinct assumptions regarding citizens' ability to attribute responsibility to distinct governing parties, are tested in the challenging Northern Ireland context - an exemplar case of multi-level multi-party government in which expectations of performance based voting are low. The paper demonstrates the operation of party-attribution based electoral accountability, using data from the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study. However, the findings are asymmetric: accountability operates in the Protestant/unionist bloc but not in the Catholic/nationalist bloc. This asymmetry may be explained by the absence of clear ethno-national ideological distinctions between the unionist parties (hence providing political space for performance based accountability to operate) but the continued relevance in the nationalist bloc of ethno-national difference (which limits the scope for performance politics). The implications of the findings for our understanding of the role of party-specific responsibility attribution in performance based models of voting, and for our evaluation of the quality of democracy in post-conflict consociational polities, are discussed. 

The Prenatal Distress Questionnaire:An investigation of factor structure in a high risk population

Background: The Prenatal Distress Questionnaire (PDQ) is a short measure designed to assess specific worries and concerns related to pregnancy. The aim of this study was to confirm the factor structure of the PDQ in a group of pregnant women with a small for gestational age infant (< 10th centile). Methods: The first PDQ assessment for each of 337 pregnant women participating in the Prospective Observational Trial to Optimise paediatric health (PORTO) study was analysed. All women enrolled in the study were identified as having a small for gestational age foetus (< 10th centile), thus representing an 'elevated risk' group. Data were analysed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Three models of the PDQ were evaluated and compared in the current study: a theoretical uni-dimensional measurement model, a bi-dimensional model, and a three-factor model solution. Results: The three-factor model offered the best fit to the data while maintaining sound theoretical grounds(χ² (51df) = 128.52; CFI = 0.97; TLI = 0.96; RMSEA = 0.07). Factor 1 contained items reflecting concerns about birth and the baby, factor 2 concerns about physical symptoms and body image and factor 3 concerns about emotions and relationships. Conclusions: CFA confirmed that the three-factor model provided the best fit, with the items in each factor reflecting the findings of an earlier exploratory data analysis. © 2013 Society for Reproductive and Infant Psychology.

A 30-Day-Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen in North London, United Kingdom

A 30-day ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen at north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21st May to 8th August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of one to four; and the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of one to four, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002 respectively when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.