910 resultados para Support Decision System
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The automatic speech recognition by machine has been the target of researchers in the past five decades. In this period have been numerous advances, such as in the field of recognition of isolated words (commands), which has very high rates of recognition, currently. However, we are still far from developing a system that could have a performance similar to the human being (automatic continuous speech recognition). One of the great challenges of searches for continuous speech recognition is the large amount of pattern. The modern languages such as English, French, Spanish and Portuguese have approximately 500,000 words or patterns to be identified. The purpose of this study is to use smaller units than the word such as phonemes, syllables and difones units as the basis for the speech recognition, aiming to recognize any words without necessarily using them. The main goal is to reduce the restriction imposed by the excessive amount of patterns. In order to validate this proposal, the system was tested in the isolated word recognition in dependent-case. The phonemes characteristics of the Brazil s Portuguese language were used to developed the hierarchy decision system. These decisions are made through the use of neural networks SVM (Support Vector Machines). The main speech features used were obtained from the Wavelet Packet Transform. The descriptors MFCC (Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficient) are also used in this work. It was concluded that the method proposed in this work, showed good results in the steps of recognition of vowels, consonants (syllables) and words when compared with other existing methods in literature
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Managing the great complexity of enterprise system, due to entities numbers, decision and process varieties involved to be controlled results in a very hard task because deals with the integration of its operations and its information systems. Moreover, the enterprises find themselves in a constant changing process, reacting in a dynamic and competitive environment where their business processes are constantly altered. The transformation of business processes into models allows to analyze and redefine them. Through computing tools usage it is possible to minimize the cost and risks of an enterprise integration design. This article claims for the necessity of modeling the processes in order to define more precisely the enterprise business requirements and the adequate usage of the modeling methodologies. Following these patterns, the paper concerns the process modeling relative to the domain of demand forecasting as a practical example. The domain of demand forecasting was built based on a theoretical review. The resulting models considered as reference model are transformed into information systems and have the aim to introduce a generic solution and be start point of better practical forecasting. The proposal is to promote the adequacy of the information system to the real needs of an enterprise in order to enable it to obtain and accompany better results, minimizing design errors, time, money and effort. The enterprise processes modeling are obtained with the usage of CIMOSA language and to the support information system it was used the UML language.
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The assessment of welfare issues has been a challenge for poultry producers, and lately welfare standards needs to be reached in order to agree with international market demand. This research proposes the use of continuous behavior monitoring in order to contribute for assessing welfare. A software was developed using the language Clarium. The software managed the recording of data as well as the data searching in the database Firebird. Both software and the observational methodology were tested in a trial conducted inside an environmental chamber, using three genetics of broiler breeders. Behavioral pattern was recorded and correlated to ambient thermal and aerial variation. Monitoring video cameras were placed on the roof facing the used for registering the bird's behavior. From video camera images were recorded during the total period when the ambient was bright, and for analyzing the video images a sample of 15min observation in the morning and 15 min in the afternoon was used, adding up to 30 min daily observation. A specific model so-called behavior was developed inside the software for counting specific behavior and its frequency of occurrence, as well as its duration. Electronic identification was recorded for 24h period. Behavioral video recording images was related to the data recorded using electronic identification.. Statistical analysis of data allowed to identify behavioral differences related to the change in thermal environment, and ultimately indicating thermal stress and departure from welfare conditions.
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The supply chain management, postponement and demand management operations are of strategic importance to the economic success of organizations because they directly influence the production process. The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the postponement in an enterprise production system with make-to-stock and with seasonal demand. The research method used was a case study, the instruments of data collection were semi-structured interviews, document analysis and site visits. The research is based on the following issues: Demand Management which can be understood as a practice that allows you to manage and coordinate the supply chain in reverse, in which consumers trigger actions for the delivery of products. The Supply Chain Management is able to allow the addition of value, exceeding the expectations of consumers, developing a relationship with suppliers and customer's win-win. The Postponement strategy must fit the characteristics of markets that require variety of customized products and services, lower cost and higher quality, aiming to support decision making. The production system make-to-stock shows enough interest to organizations that are operating in markets with high demand variability. © 2011 IEEE.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil e Ambiental - FEB
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Given the competitive reality of the globalized market, companies are compelled to develop strategic aspects of the management process, in order to ensure their survival. Among the strategic aspects is the price formation process, whose reasoning occurs mainly of adoption through cost system. Knowledge of costs and expenses provides conditions for the company to position itself strategically in the market, being able to follow the price of competition and sometimes even surpass them, called, more and more attention with regard to price formation. This study aims to identify the best price to be transferred to the market. To this end, were approached concept of pricing and its components, their strategies and pricing objectives, as well as the influence of demand on price formation, as well as the added value the brand and quality; and even a careful analysis of the price established by the said company in the service offered. We used the method of literature review and case study in the company ESA international aeronautical industry. Thus, we sought to explain about the main concepts for pricing in order to support decision making
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This research aimed to develop a Fuzzy inference based on expert system to help preventing lameness in dairy cattle. Hoof length, nutritional parameters and floor material properties (roughness) were used to build the Fuzzy inference system. The expert system architecture was defined using Unified Modelling Language (UML). Data were collected in a commercial dairy herd using two different subgroups (H-1 and H-2), in order to validate the Fuzzy inference functions. The numbers of True Positive (TP), False Positive (FP), True Negative (TN), and False Negative (FN) responses were used to build the classifier system up, after an established gold standard comparison. A Lesion Incidence Possibility (LIP) developed function indicates the chances of a cow becoming lame. The obtained lameness percentage in H-1 and H-2 was 8.40% and 1.77%, respectively. The system estimated a Lesion Incidence Possibility (LIP) of 5.00% and 2.00% in H-1 and H-2, respectively. The system simulation presented 3.40% difference from real cattle lameness data for H-1, while for H-2, it was 0.23%; indicating the system efficiency in decision-making.
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The miniaturization race in the hardware industry aiming at continuous increasing of transistor density on a die does not bring respective application performance improvements any more. One of the most promising alternatives is to exploit a heterogeneous nature of common applications in hardware. Supported by reconfigurable computation, which has already proved its efficiency in accelerating data intensive applications, this concept promises a breakthrough in contemporary technology development. Memory organization in such heterogeneous reconfigurable architectures becomes very critical. Two primary aspects introduce a sophisticated trade-off. On the one hand, a memory subsystem should provide well organized distributed data structure and guarantee the required data bandwidth. On the other hand, it should hide the heterogeneous hardware structure from the end-user, in order to support feasible high-level programmability of the system. This thesis work explores the heterogeneous reconfigurable hardware architectures and presents possible solutions to cope the problem of memory organization and data structure. By the example of the MORPHEUS heterogeneous platform, the discussion follows the complete design cycle, starting from decision making and justification, until hardware realization. Particular emphasis is made on the methods to support high system performance, meet application requirements, and provide a user-friendly programmer interface. As a result, the research introduces a complete heterogeneous platform enhanced with a hierarchical memory organization, which copes with its task by means of separating computation from communication, providing reconfigurable engines with computation and configuration data, and unification of heterogeneous computational devices using local storage buffers. It is distinguished from the related solutions by distributed data-flow organization, specifically engineered mechanisms to operate with data on local domains, particular communication infrastructure based on Network-on-Chip, and thorough methods to prevent computation and communication stalls. In addition, a novel advanced technique to accelerate memory access was developed and implemented.
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This Thesis aims at building and discussing mathematical models applications focused on Energy problems, both on the thermal and electrical side. The objective is to show how mathematical programming techniques developed within Operational Research can give useful answers in the Energy Sector, how they can provide tools to support decision making processes of Companies operating in the Energy production and distribution and how they can be successfully used to make simulations and sensitivity analyses to better understand the state of the art and convenience of a particular technology by comparing it with the available alternatives. The first part discusses the fundamental mathematical background followed by a comprehensive literature review about mathematical modelling in the Energy Sector. The second part presents mathematical models for the District Heating strategic network design and incremental network design. The objective is the selection of an optimal set of new users to be connected to an existing thermal network, maximizing revenues, minimizing infrastructure and operational costs and taking into account the main technical requirements of the real world application. Results on real and randomly generated benchmark networks are discussed with particular attention to instances characterized by big networks dimensions. The third part is devoted to the development of linear programming models for optimal battery operation in off-grid solar power schemes, with consideration of battery degradation. The key contribution of this work is the inclusion of battery degradation costs in the optimisation models. As available data on relating degradation costs to the nature of charge/discharge cycles are limited, we concentrate on investigating the sensitivity of operational patterns to the degradation cost structure. The objective is to investigate the combination of battery costs and performance at which such systems become economic. We also investigate how the system design should change when battery degradation is taken into account.
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Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.
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Background. Excess weight and obesity are at epidemic proportions in the United States and place individuals at increased risk for a variety of chronic conditions. Rates of diabetes, high blood pressure, coronary artery disease, stroke, cancer, and arthritis are all influenced by the presence of obesity. Small reductions in excess weight can produce significant positive clinical outcomes. Healthcare organizations have a vital role to play in the identification and management of obesity. Currently, healthcare providers do not adequately diagnose and manage excess weight in patients. Lack of skill, time, and knowledge are commonly cited as reasons for non-adherence to recommended standards of care. The Chronic Care Model offers an approach to healthcare organizations for chronic disease management. The model consists of six elements that work together to empower both providers and patients to have more productive interactions: the community, the health system itself, self-management support, delivery system design, decision support, and clinical information systems. The model and its elements may offer a framework through which healthcare organizations can adapt to support, educate, and empower providers and patients in the management of excess weight and obesity. Successful management of excess weight will reduce morbidity and mortality of many chronic conditions. Purpose. The purpose of this review is to synthesize existing research on the effectiveness of the Chronic Care Model and its elements as they relate to weight management and behaviors associated with maintaining a healthy weight. Methods: A narrative review of the literature between November 1998 and November 2008 was conducted. The review focused on clinical trials, systematic reviews, and reports related to the chronic care model or its elements and weight management, physical activity, nutrition, or diabetes. Fifty-nine articles are included in the review. Results. This review highlights the use of the Chronic Care Model and its elements that can result in improved quality of care and clinical outcomes related to weight management, physical activity, nutrition, and diabetes. Conclusions. Healthcare organizations can use the Chronic Care Model framework to implement changes within their systems to successfully address overweight and obesity in their patient populations. Specific recommendations for operationalizing the Chronic Care Model elements for weight management are presented.^
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The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.