Differential brain activity during emotional versus nonemotional reversal learning

The ability to change an established stimulus–behavior association based on feedback is critical for adaptive social behaviors. This ability has been examined in reversal learning tasks, where participants first learn a stimulus–response association (e.g., select a particular object to get a reward) and then need to alter their response when reinforcement contingencies change. Although substantial evidence demonstrates that the OFC is a critical region for reversal learning, previous studies have not distinguished reversal learning for emotional associations from neutral associations. The current study examined whether OFC plays similar roles in emotional versus neutral reversal learning. The OFC showed greater activity during reversals of stimulus–outcome associations for negative outcomes than for neutral outcomes. Similar OFC activity was also observed during reversals involving positive outcomes. Furthermore, OFC activity is more inversely correlated with amygdala activity during negative reversals than during neutral reversals. Overall, our results indicate that the OFC is more activated by emotional than neutral reversal learning and that OFC's interactions with the amygdala are greater for negative than neutral reversal learning.

EISCAT observations of unusual flows in the morning sector associated with weak substorm activity

A discussion is given of plasma flows in the dawn and nightside high-latitude ionospheric regions during substorms occurring on a contracted auroral oval, as observed using the EISCAT CP-4-A experiment. Supporting data from the PACE radar, Greenland magnetometer chain, SAMNET magnetometers and geostationary satellites are compared to the EISCAT observations. On 4 October 1989 a weak substorm with initial expansion phase onset signatures at 0030 UT, resulted in the convection reversal boundary observed by EISCAT (at \sim0415 MLT) contracting rapidly poleward, causing a band of elevated ionospheric ion temperatures and a localised plasma density depletion. This polar cap contraction event is shown to be associated with various substorm signatures; Pi2 pulsations at mid-latitudes, magnetic bays in the midnight sector and particle injections at geosynchronous orbit. A similar event was observed on the following day around 0230 UT (\sim0515 MLT) with the unusual and significant difference that two convection reversals were observed, both contracting poleward. We show that this feature is not an ionospheric signature of two active reconnection neutral lines as predicted by the near-Earth neutral model before the plasmoid is “pinched off”, and present two alternative explanations in terms of (1) viscous and lobe circulation cells and (2) polar cap contraction during northward IMF. The voltage associated with the anti-sunward flow between the reversals reaches a maximum of 13 kV during the substorm expansion phase. This suggests it to be associated with the polar cap contraction and caused by the reconnection of open flux in the geomagnetic tail which has mimicked “viscous-like” momentum transfer across the magnetopause.

Separating real incentives and accountability

In experimental investigations of the effect of real incentives, accountability—the implicit or explicit expectation of a decision maker that she may have to justify her decisions in front of somebody else—is often confounded with the incentives themselves. This confounding of accountability with incentives makes causal attributions of any effects found problematic. We separate accountability and incentives, and find different effects. Accountability is found to reduce preference reversals between frames, for which incentives have no effect. Incentives on the other hand are found to reduce risk seeking for losses, where accountability has no effect. In a choice task between simple and compound events, accountability increases the preference for the simple event, while incentives have a weaker effect going in the opposite direction. It is thus shown that the confounding of accountability and incentives is relevant for studies on the effect of the latter, and that existing conclusions on the effect of incentives need to be reconsidered in light of this issue.

How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA

This study investigates flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Respondents to the public survey varied in their perceptions and understandings of flash flood risks in Boulder, and some had misconceptions about flash flood risks, such as the safety of crossing fast-flowing water. About 6% of respondents indicated consistent reversals of US watch-warning alert terminology. However, more in-depth analysis illustrates the multi-dimensional, situationally dependent meanings of flash flood alerts, as well as the importance of evaluating interpretation and use of warning information along with alert terminology. Some public respondents estimated low likelihoods of flash flooding given a flash flood warning; these were associated with lower anticipated likelihood of taking protective action given a warning. Protective action intentions were also lower among respondents who had less trust in flash flood warnings, those who had not made prior preparations for flash flooding, and those who believed themselves to be safer from flash flooding. Additional analysis, using open-ended survey questions about responses to warnings, elucidates the complex, contextual nature of protective decision making during flash flood threats. These findings suggest that warnings can play an important role not only by notifying people that there is a threat and helping motivate people to take protective action, but also by helping people evaluate what actions to take given their situation.

A comparison between large-scale irregularities and scintillations in the polar ionosphere

A comparison tool has been developed by mapping the global GPS total electron content (TEC) and large coverage of ionospheric scintillations together on the geomagnetic latitude/magnetic local time coordinates. Using this tool, a comparison between large-scale ionospheric irregularities and scintillations are pursued during a geomagnetic storm. Irregularities, such as storm enhanced density (SED), middle-latitude trough and polar cap patches, are clearly identified from the TEC maps. At the edges of these irregularities, clear scintillations appeared but their behaviors were different. Phase scintillations (σsub{φ}) were almost always larger than amplitude scintillations (S4) at the edges of these irregularities, associated with bursty flows or flow reversals with large density gradients. An unexpected scintillation feature appeared inside the modeled auroral oval where S4 were much larger than σsub{φ}, most likely caused by particle precipitations around the exiting polar cap patches.

Are the magnetic fields of millisecond pulsars similar to 10(8) G?

It is generally assumed that the magnetic fields of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) are similar to 10(8) G. We argue that this may not be true and the fields may be appreciably greater. We present six evidences for this: (1) The similar to 10(8)G field estimate is based on magnetic dipole emission losses which is shown to be questionable; (2) The MSPs in low mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) are claimed to have < 10(11) G on the basis of a Rayleygh-Taylor instability accretion argument. We show that the accretion argument is questionable and the upper limit 10(11) G may be much higher; (3) Low magnetic field neutron stars have difficulty being produced in LMXBs; (4) MSPs may still be accreting indicating a much higher magnetic field; (5) The data that predict similar to 10(8) G for MSPs also predict ages on the order of, and greater than, ten billion years, which is much greater than normal pulsars. If the predicted ages are wrong, most likely the predicted similar to 10(8) G fields of MSPs are wrong; (6) When magnetic fields are measured directly with cyclotron lines in X-ray binaries, fields a parts per thousand << 10(8) G are indicated. Other scenarios should be investigated. One such scenario is the following. Over 85% of MSPs are confirmed members of a binary. It is possible that all MSPs are in large separation binaries having magnetic fields > 10(8) G with their magnetic dipole emission being balanced by low level accretion from their companions.

Fast or slow melting of the Marinoan snowball Earth? The cap dolostone record

The end of the Neoproterozoic era is punctuated by two global glacial events marked by the presence of glacial deposits overlaid by cap carbonates. Duration of glacial intervals is now consistently constrained to 3-12 million years but the duration of the post-glacial transition is more controversial due to the uncertainty in cap dolostone sedimentation rates. Indeed, the presence of several stratabound magnetic reversals in Brazilian cap dolostones recently questioned the short sedimentation duration (a few thousand years at most) that was initially suggested for these rocks. Here, we present new detailed magnetostratigraphic data of the Mirassol d`Oeste cap dolostones (Mato Grosso, Brazil) and ""bomb-spike"" calibrated AMS (14)C data of microbial mats from the Lagoa Vermelha (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). We also compile sedimentary, isotopic and microbiological data from post-Marinoan outcrops and/or recent depositional analogues in order to discuss the deposition rate of Marinoan cap dolostones and to infer an estimation of the deglaciation duration in the snowball Earth aftermath. Taken together, the various data point to a sedimentation duration in the range of a few 10(5) years. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Palaeomagnetism, rock magnetism and AMS of the Cabo Magmatic Province, NE Brazil, and the opening of South Atlantic

P>Reconstruction of the South Atlantic opening has long been a matter of debate and several models have been proposed. One problem in tracing properly the Atlantic history arises from the existence of a long interval without geomagnetic reversals, the Cretaceous Normal Superchron, for which ages are difficult to assign. Palaeomagnetism may help in addressing this issue if high-quality palaeomagnetic poles are available for the two drifting continental blocks, and if precise absolute ages are available. In this work we have investigated the Cabo Magmatic Province, northeastern Brazil, recently dated at 102 +/- 1 Ma (zircon fission tracks, Ar39/Ar40). All volcanic and plutonic rocks showed stable thermal and AF demagnetization patterns, and exhibit primary magnetic signatures. AMS data also support a primary origin for the magnetic fabric and is interpreted to be contemporaneous of the rock formation. The obtained pole is located at 335.9 degrees E/87.9 degrees S (N = 24; A(95) = 2.5; K = 138) and satisfies modern quality criteria, resulting in a reference pole for South America at similar to 100 Ma. This new pole also gives an insight to test and discuss the kinematic models currently proposed for the South Atlantic opening during mid-Cretaceous.

Desenvolvimento do saltar à horizontal : uma análise topológica

O objetivo deste estudo foi investigar a organização espaço-temporal dos segmentos da perna e da coxa no saltar à horizontal, verificando as infiuências do organismo e do ambiente (dois tipos de piso: concreto e areia). Participaram do estudo 21 sujeitos, 3 de cada faixa etária: 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13 e adulta (X = 19 anos de idade). Os sujeitos foram filmados realizando o saltar à horizontal com marcas desenhadas no centro das articulações do tornozelo, joelho e quadril. Estes pontos foram digitalizados e processados obtendo a posição e velocidade angular dos segmentos da perna e da coxa. A partir da posição e velocidade angular foi possível delinear os gráficos dos atratores (retratos de fase) e calcular os valores dos ângulos de fase para cada segmento, durante a realização da tarefa. Duas reversões para cada segmento, na posição angular, foram identificadas e nestes momentos os valores dos ângulos de fase foram capturados. Analisando as trajetórias dos retratos de fase verificou-se que os segmentos da perna e da coxa apresentaram um conjunto específico de características topológicas, na realização do saltar à horizontal. A análise dos valores dos ângulos de fase, nas duas reversões, indicou que ao longo das faixas etárias e nos dois tipos de piso os segmentos da perna e da coxa apresentaram organização espaço-temporal semelhante, indicando coordenação invariante.

Escolha social e valores irredutíveis: uma aproximação da economia política e a ideologia

No presente paper, nós provamos que qualquer função da escolha social satisfaz o princípio da independência das alternativas irrelevantes (IIA) de Arrow se o comportamento individual é menu-dependente. Portanto, o 'Teorema da Possibilidade Geral' de Arrow não é válido quando as preferências individuais são determinadas por valores irredutíveis. Nesse contexto, qualquer instrumento de agregação que satisfaça os princípios não-ditatoriais e paretianos de unanimidade (maioria simples, por exemplo) também faz IIA. Esse poderia ser um resultado importante para a teoria da escolha social, enquanto um comportamento individual determinado por valores irredutíveis (interesse próprio, ideologia, Ética e normas sociais, por exemplo) podendo validar democracia representativa. A importância relativa de tais valores e da possibilidade de reversão da preferência determina a dinâmica da escolha social, de acordo com os princípios democráticos.

Modelagem de superfícies de volatilidade para opções com baixa liquidez sobre pares de moedas, cujos componentes apresentam opções líquidas em outros pares

Este trabalho apresenta um modelo para determinação da superfície de volatilidades de um par de moedas cujas opções têm baixa liquidez, utilizando superfícies de volatilidade com maior liquidez, de pares de moedas em que as moedas estudadas sejam uma de suas componentes. Esse objetivo é atingido através da utilização de um modelo de volatilidade estocástica. A calibração de seus parâmetros é feita a partir dos valores de mercado de Butterfly Spreads e Risk Reversals dos pares de moedas líquidos. O trabalho contribui em relação à literatura no sentido de ampliar a cobertura de strikes e vencimentos considerados, permitindo que, tanto opções pouco líquidas e fora do dinheiro, como notas estruturadas com opções embutidas possam ser mais adequadamente apreçadas.

O Mecanismo de transmissão de preços do petróleo para a gasolina e para o diesel nos EUA nos anos 2000

Através de um Modelo de Correção de Erros este estudo explora possíveis assimetrias no passthrough dos preços de petróleos para os preços do diesel e da gasolina no mercado dos Estados Unidos, analisando, principalmente, se as inversões das tendências das demandas destes derivados afetaram o mecanismo de transmissão de preços. A partir de dados mensais de janeiro de 2001 a dezembro de 2012, para a gasolina foram encontrados indícios de que houve alterações do passthrough em decorrência da quebra da demanda. Porém, é válido destacar que tal resultado ocorreu concomitantemente ao período de recuperação de preços presenciada após a crise de 2008. Em relação ao diesel, não há indícios de que houve alterações no passthrough. Por fim, há evidências da redução do WTI como petróleo de referência em decorrência da sua desvalorização a partir de 2010.

Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.

Floral anatomy of Bromeliaceae, with particular reference to the evolution of epigyny and septal nectaries in commelinid monocots

Floral anatomy is described in ten genera of Bromeliaceae, including three members of subfamily Bromelioideae, three Tillandsioideae, and four genera of the polyphyletic subfamily Pitcairnioideae (including Brocchinia, the putatively basal genus of Bromeliaceae). Bromeliaceae are probably unique in the order Poales in possessing septal nectaries and epigynous or semi-epigynous flowers. Evidence presented here from floral ontogeny, vasculature, and the relative positions of nectary and ovules indicates that there could have been one or more reversals to apparent hypogyny in Bromeliaceae, although this hypothesis requires a better-resolved phylogeny. Such evolutionary reversals probably evolved in response to specialist pollinators, and in conjunction with other aspects of floral morphology of Bromeliaceae, such as the petal appendages of some species. The ovary is initiated in an inferior position even in semi-epigynous or hypogynous species. The ovary of all so-called hypogynous Bromeliaceae is actually semi-inferior, because the septal nectary is infralocular; in these species the nectaries have a labyrinthine surface and many vascular bundles. Brocchinia differs from most other fully epigynous species in that each carpel is secretory at the apex and reproductive, rather than secretory, at the base.

Limnogeology in Brazil's "forgotten wilderness": a synthesis from the large floodplain lakes of the Pantanal

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)