Predicting reduced driver alertness on monotonous highways : a driving simulator study

Impaired driver alertness increases the likelihood of drivers’ making mistakes and reacting too late to unexpected events while driving. This is particularly a concern on monotonous roads, where a driver’s attention can decrease rapidly. While effective countermeasures do not currently exist, the development of in-vehicle sensors opens avenues for monitoring driving behavior in real-time. The aim of this study is to predict drivers’ level of alertness through surrogate measures collected from in-vehicle sensors. Electroencephalographic activity is used as a reference to evaluate alertness. Based on a sample of 25 drivers, data was collected in a driving simulator instrumented with an eye tracking system, a heart rate monitor and an electrodermal activity device. Various classification models were tested from linear regressions to Bayesians and data mining techniques. Results indicated that Neural Networks were the most efficient model in detecting lapses in alertness. Findings also show that reduced alertness can be predicted up to 5 minutes in advance with 90% accuracy, using surrogate measures such as time to line crossing, blink frequency and skin conductance level. Such a method could be used to warn drivers of their alertness level through the development of an in-vehicle device monitoring, in real-time, drivers' behavior on highways.

Effect of diabetes on amplitude of accommodation

Purpose: To determine the effect of Type 1 diabetes (DM1) on amplitude of accommodation. Method: There were 43 participants (33 ± 8 years) with DM1 and 32 (34 ± 8 years) age-balanced controls. Amplitude was measured objectively with a COAS wavefront aberrometer and subjectively with a Badal hand optometer. Results: Across both groups, objective amplitude was less than subjective amplitude by 1.4 ± 1.2 D. People with diabetes had lower objective (2.7±1.6 D) and subjective (4.0±1.7 D) amplitudes than people without diabetes (objective 4.1±2.1 D, subjective 5.6±2.1 D). For the DM1 group, the objective and subjective multivariate linear regressions were 7.1 – 0.097Age – 0.076DiabDur (R2 0.51) and 9.1 –0.103Age – 0.106DiabDur (R2 0.63), respectively. Conclusion: Objective and subjective techniques showed lowered amplitude of accommodation in DM1 participants compared with age-matched controls. Loss was affected strongly by duration of diabetes. People with diabetes will experience presbyopia earlier in life than people without diabetes.

Childhood atopic dermatitis : a cross-sectional study of relationships between child and parent factors, atopic dermatitis management, and disease severity

Background: Successful management of atopic dermatitis poses a significant and ongoing challenge to parents of affected children. Despite frequent reports of child behaviour problems and parenting difficulties, there is a paucity of literature examining relationships between child behaviour and parents' confidence and competence with treatment. Objectives: To examine relationships between child, parent, and family variables, parents' self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis, self-reported performance of management tasks, observed competence with providing treatment, and atopic dermatitis severity. Design: Cross-sectional study design. Participants A sample of 64 parent-child dyads was recruited from the dermatology clinic of a paediatric tertiary referral hospital in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Parents completed self-report questionnaires examining child behaviour, parents' adjustment, parenting conflict, parents' relationship satisfaction, and parents' self-efficacy and self-reported performance of key management tasks. Severity of atopic dermatitis was assessed using the Scoring Atopic Dermatitis index. A routine home treatment session was observed, and parents' competence in carrying out the child's treatment assessed. Results: Pearson's and Spearman's correlations identified significant relationships (p< .05) between parents' self-efficacy and disease severity, child behaviour difficulties, parent depression and stress, parenting conflict, and relationship satisfaction. There were also significant relationships between each of these variables and parents' self-reported performance of management tasks. More profound child behaviour difficulties were associated with more severe atopic dermatitis and greater parent stress. Using multiple linear regressions, significant proportions of variation in parents' self-efficacy and self-reported task performance were explained by child behaviour difficulties and parents' formal education. Self-efficacy emerged as a likely mediator for relationships between both child behaviour and parents' education, and self-reported task performance. Direct observation of treatment sessions revealed strong relationships between parents' treatment competence and parents' self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance. Less competent task performance was also associated with greater parent-reported child behaviour difficulties, parent depression and stress, parenting conflict, and relationship dissatisfaction. Conclusion: This study revealed the importance of child behaviour to parents' confidence and practices in the context of atopic dermatitis management. Children with more severe atopic dermatitis are at risk of presenting with challenging behaviour problems and their parents struggle to manage the condition successfully.

Australian stock indexes and the four-factor model

Stock indexes are passive 'value-weighted' portfolios and should not have alphas which are significantly different from zero. If an index produces an insignificant alphan, then significant alphas for equity funds using this index can be attributed solely to manager performance. However, recent literature sugests that US Stock indexes can demonstrate significant alphas, which ultimately raise questions regarding equity fund manager performance in both the US and abroad. in this paper, we employ the Carhart four-factor model and newly available Asian-Pacific risk factors to generate alphas and risk factor loadings for eight Australian stock indexes from January 2004 to December 2012. We ifnd that the initial full sample period analysis does not provide indication of significant alphas in the indexes examined. However, by carrying out 36-month rolling regressions, we discover at least four significant alphas in seven of the eight indexes and factor loading variability. As previously reported in the US, this paper confirms similar issues with the four-factor model using Australian stock indexes and performance benchmarking. In effectively measuring Australian equity fund manager performance, it is therefore essential to evaluate a fund's alpha and risk factors relative to the alpha and risk factors of the appropriate benchmark index.

Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

Background Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. Methods Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. Results Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. Conclusions Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come.

Back to normal: A retrospective, cross-sectional study of the multi-factorial determinants of normal birth in Queensland, Australia

Background Currently, care providers and policy-makers internationally are working to promote normal birth. In Australia, such initiatives are being implemented without any evidence of the prevalence or determinants of normal birth as a multidimensional construct. This study aimed to better understand the determinants of normal birth (defined as without induction of labour, epidural/spinal/general anaesthesia, forceps/vacuum, caesarean birth, or episiotomy) using secondary analyses of data from a population survey of women in Queensland, Australia. Methods Women who birthed in Queensland during a two-week period in 2009 were mailed a survey approximately three months after birth. Women (n=772) provided retrospective data on their pregnancy, labour and birth preferences and experiences, socio-demographic characteristics, and reproductive history. A series of logistic regressions were conducted to determine factors associated with having labour, having a vaginal birth, and having a normal birth. Findings Overall, 81.9% of women had labour, 66.4% had a vaginal birth, and 29.6% had a normal birth. After adjusting for other significant factors, women had significantly higher odds of having labour if they birthed in a public hospital and had a pre-existing preference for a vaginal birth. Of women who had labour, 80.8% had a vaginal birth. Women who had labour had significantly higher odds of having a vaginal birth if they attended antenatal classes, did not have continuous fetal monitoring, felt able to ‘take their time’ in labour, and had a pre-existing preference for a vaginal birth. Of women who had a vaginal birth, 44.7% had a normal birth. Women who had a vaginal birth had significantly higher odds of having a normal birth if they birthed in a public hospital, birthed outside regular business hours, had mobility in labour, did not have continuous fetal monitoring, and were non-supine during birth. Conclusions These findings provide a strong foundation on which to base resources aimed at increasing informed decision-making for maternity care consumers, providers, and policy-makers alike. Research to evaluate the impact of modifying key clinical practices (e.g., supporting women׳s mobility during labour, facilitating non-supine positioning during birth) on the likelihood of a normal birth is an important next step.

The impact of neuropsychological functioning and coping style on perceived stress in individuals with first-episode psychosis and healthy controls

Stress is implicated in the development and course of psychotic illness, but the factors that influence stress levels are not well understood. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of neuropsychological functioning and coping styles on perceived stress in people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) and healthy controls (HC). Thirty-four minimally treated FEP patients from the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre, Melbourne, Australia, and 26 HC participants from a similar demographic area participated in the study. Participants completed a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery as well as the Coping Inventory for Stressful Situations (task-, emotion- and avoidance-focussed coping styles) and Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). Linear regressions were used to determine the contribution of neuropsychological functioning and coping style to perceived stress in the two groups. In the FEP group, higher levels of emotion-focussed and lower levels of task-focussed coping were associated with elevated stress. Higher premorbid IQ and working memory were also associated with higher subjective stress. In the HC group, higher levels of emotion-focussed coping, and contrary to the FEP group, lower premorbid IQ, working memory and executive functioning, were associated with increased stress. Lower intellectual functioning may provide some protection against perceived stress in FEP.

Women's perceptions of communication in pregnancy and childbirth: Influences on participation and satisfaction with care

In this study, 3531 Queensland women, who had recently given birth, completed a questionnaire that included questions about their participation in decision making during pregnancy, their ratings of client centred care and perceived quality of care. These data tested a version of Street’s (2001) linguistic model of patient participation in care (LMOPPC), adapted to the maternity context. We investigated how age and education influenced women’s perceptions of their participation and quality of care. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that women’s perceived ability to make decisions, and the extent of client-centred communication with maternity care providers were the most influential predictors of participation and perceived quality of care. Participation in care predicted perceived quality of care, but the influence of client-centred communication by a care provider and a woman’s confidence in decision making were stronger predictors of perceived quality of care. Age and education level were not important predictors. These findings extend and support the use of LMOPPC in the maternity context.

Financial institutions using social media – do consumers perceive value?

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine consumer perceptions of value of financial institutions using social media to interact with consumers; if overall perceived value predicts a consumer’s intention to adopt, and if intention predicts self-reported adoption of social media to interact with a financial institution; and if perceptions of value in using social media to interact with a financial institution changes over time. Design/methodology/approach Self-administered surveys were run at two time points; 2010 and 2014. Data were analyzed using multiple and mediated regressions, and t-tests. Comparisons are made between the two time points. Findings Perceived usefulness, economic value, and social value predicted overall perceived value, which in turn predicted a consumer’s intention to adopt social media to interact with a financial institution. At Time 2, adoption intention predicted self-reported usage behavior. Finally, there were significant differences between perceptions across Time 1 and 2. Research limitations/implications The implications of the research highlight the importance of overall perceived value in the role of adoption intention, and that at Time 2, adoption intention predicted self-reported adoption to read and share content. A reduction in perceptions of value and intentions from Time 1 to Time 2 could be explained by perceptions of technology insecurity. In future studies, the authors recommend examining inhibitors to adoption including hedonic value. Practical implications The findings suggest that consumers will use social media if the sector creates and clearly articulates consumer value from using social media. The sector also needs to address technology security perceptions to increase usage of social media. Originality/value This paper is one of the first to investigate the consumer’s perspective in social media adoption by financial institutions, by exploring the role of value in consumer adoption and usage of social media.

Young and unaffected by road policing strategies: Using deterrence theory to explain provisional drivers' (non)compliance

Newly licenced drivers are disproportionately represented in traffic injuries and crash statistics. Despite the implementation of countermeasures designed to improve safety, such as graduated driver licencing (GDL) schemes, many young drivers do not comply with road rules. This study used a reconceptualised deterrence theory framework to investigate young drivers’ perceptions of the enforcement of road rules in general and those more specifically related to GDL. A total of 236 drivers aged 17–24 completed a questionnaire assessing their perceptions of various deterrence mechanisms (personal and vicarious) and their compliance with both GDL-specific and general road rules. Hierarchical multiple regressions conducted to explore noncompliant behaviour revealed that, contrary to theoretical expectations, neither personal nor vicarious punishment experiences affected compliance in the expected direction. Instead, the most influential factors contributing to noncompliance were licence type (P2) and, counterintuitively, having previously been exposed to enforcement. Parental enforcement was also significant in the prediction of transient rule violations, but not fixed rule violations or overall noncompliance. Findings are discussed in light of several possibilities, including an increase in violations due to more time spent on the road, an ‘emboldening effect’ noted in prior studies and possible conceptual constraints regarding the deterrence variables examined in this study.

Serum levels of soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products and of S100 proteins are associated with inflammatory, autoantibody, and classical risk markers of joint and vascular damage in rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction: The receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) is a member of the immunoglobulin superfamily of cell surface receptor molecules. High concentrations of three of its putative proinflammatory ligands, S100A8/A9 complex (calprotectin), S100A8, and S100A12, are found in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) serum and synovial fluid. In contrast, soluble RAGE (sRAGE) may prevent proinflammatory effects by acting as a decoy. This study evaluated the serum levels of S100A9, S100A8, S100A12 and sRAGE in RA patients, to determine their relationship to inflammation and joint and vascular damage. Methods: Serum sRAGE, S100A9, S100A8 and S100A12 levels from 138 patients with established RA and 44 healthy controls were measured by ELISA and compared by unpaired t test. In RA patients, associations with disease activity and severity variables were analyzed by simple and multiple linear regressions. Results: Serum S100A9, S100A8 and S100A12 levels were correlated in RA patients. S100A9 levels were associated with body mass index (BMI), and with serum levels of S100A8 and S100A12. S100A8 levels were associated with serum levels of S100A9, presence of anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA), and rheumatoid factor (RF). S100A12 levels were associated with presence of ACPA, history of diabetes, and serum S100A9 levels. sRAGE levels were negatively associated with serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL), history of vasculitis, and the presence of the RAGE 82Ser polymorphism. Conclusions: sRAGE and S100 proteins were associated not just with RA inflammation and autoantibody production, but also with classical vascular risk factors for end-organ damage. Consistent with its role as a RAGE decoy molecule, sRAGE had the opposite effects to S100 proteins in that S100 proteins were associated with autoantibodies and vascular risk, whereas sRAGE was associated with protection against joint and vascular damage. These data suggest that RAGE activity influences co-development of joint and vascular disease in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Non-linear regression model for spatial variation in precipitation chemistry for South India

Chemical composition of rainwater changes from sea to inland under the influence of several major factors - topographic location of area, its distance from sea, annual rainfall. A model is developed here to quantify the variation in precipitation chemistry under the influence of inland distance and rainfall amount. Various sites in India categorized as 'urban', 'suburban' and 'rural' have been considered for model development. pH, HCO3, NO3 and Mg do not change much from coast to inland while, SO4 and Ca change is subjected to local emissions. Cl and Na originate solely from sea salinity and are the chemistry parameters in the model. Non-linear multiple regressions performed for the various categories revealed that both rainfall amount and precipitation chemistry obeyed a power law reduction with distance from sea. Cl and Na decrease rapidly for the first 100 km distance from sea, then decrease marginally for the next 100 km, and later stabilize. Regression parameters estimated for different cases were found to be consistent (R-2 similar to 0.8). Variation in one of the parameters accounted for urbanization. Model was validated using data points from the southern peninsular region of the country. Estimates are found to be within 99.9% confidence interval. Finally, this relationship between the three parameters - rainfall amount, coastline distance, and concentration (in terms of Cl and Na) was validated with experiments conducted in a small experimental watershed in the south-west India. Chemistry estimated using the model was in good correlation with observed values with a relative error of similar to 5%. Monthly variation in the chemistry is predicted from a downscaling model and then compared with the observed data. Hence, the model developed for rain chemistry is useful in estimating the concentrations at different spatio-temporal scales and is especially applicable for south-west region of India. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal changes in pasture quality and diet selection and their relationship with liveweight gain of steers grazing tropical grass and grass-legume pastures in northern Australia.

The variation in liveweight gain in grazing beef cattle as influenced by pasture type, season and year effects has important economic implications for mixed crop-livestock systems and the ability to better predict such variation would benefit beef producers by providing a guide for decision making. To identify key determinants of liveweight change of Brahman-cross steers grazing subtropical pastures, measurements of pasture quality and quantity, and diet quality in parallel with liveweight were made over two consecutive grazing seasons (48 and 46 weeks, respectively), on mixed Clitoria ternatea/grass, Stylosanthes seabrana/grass and grass swards (grass being a mixture of Bothriochloa insculpta cv. Bisset, Dichanthium sericeum and Panicum maximum var. trichoglume cv. Petrie). Steers grazing the legume-based pastures had the highest growth rate and gained between 64 and 142 kg more than those grazing the grass pastures in under 12 months. Using an exponential model, green leaf mass, green leaf %, adjusted green leaf % (adjusted for inedible woody legume stems), faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy predictions of diet crude protein and diet dry matter digestibility, accounted for 77, 74, 80, 63 and 60%, respectively, of the variation in daily weight gain when data were pooled across pasture types and grazing seasons. The standard error of the regressions indicated that 95% prediction intervals were large (+/- 0.42-0.64 kg/head.day) suggesting that derived regression relationships have limited practical application for accurately estimating growth rate. In this study, animal factors, especially compensatory growth effects, appeared to have a major influence on growth rate in relation to pasture and diet attributes. It was concluded that predictions of growth rate based only on pasture or diet attributes are unlikely to be accurate or reliable. Nevertheless, key pasture attributes such as green leaf mass and green leaf% provide a robust indication of what proportion of the potential growth rate of the grazing animals can be achieved.

The role of fruit traits of bird-dispersed plants in invasiveness and weed risk assessment

Aim: Birds play a major role in the dispersal of seeds of many fleshy-fruited invasive plants. The fruits that birds choose to consume are influenced by fruit traits. However, little is known of how the traits of invasive plant fruits contribute to invasiveness or to their use by frugivores. We aim to gain a greater understanding of these relationships to improve invasive plant management. Location: South-east Queensland, Australia. Methods: We measure a variety of fruit morphology, pulp nutrient and phenology traits of a suite of bird-dispersed alien plants. Frugivore richness of these aliens was derived from the literature. Using regressions and multivariate methods, we investigate relationships between fruit traits, frugivore richness and invasiveness. Results: Plant invasiveness was negatively correlated to fruit size, and all highly invasive species had quite similar fruit morphology [smaller fruits, seeds of intermediate size and few (<10) seeds per fruit]. Lower pulp water was the only pulp nutrient trait associated with invasiveness. There were strong positive relationships between the diversity of bird frugivores and plant invasiveness, and in the diversity of bird frugivores in the study region and another part of the plants' alien range. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that weed risk assessments (WRA) and predictions of invasive success for bird-dispersed plants can be improved. Scoring criteria for WRA regarding fruit size would need to be system-specific, depending on the fruit-processing capabilities of local frugivores. Frugivore richness could be quantified in the plant's natural range, its invasive range elsewhere, or predictions made based on functionally similar fruits.