Rational avoidance of accountability

Anthony Downs public choice theory proposes that every rational person would try to meet their own desires in preference to those of others, and that such rational persons would attempt to obtain these desires in the most efficient manner possible. This paper will demonstrate that the application of this theory would mean that public servants and politicians would perform acts of corruption and maladministration in order to efficiently meet their desires. As such action is unavoidable, political parties must appear to meet the public demand for accountability systems, but must not make these systems viable lest they expose the corruption and maladministration that would threaten the government’s chance or re-election. It is therefore logical for governments to display a commitment for accountability whilst simultaneously ensuring the systems would not be able to interfere with government control or expose its flaws.

Rationalizability of Choice Functions on General Domains without Full Transitivity

The rationalizability of a choice function by means of a transitive relation has been analyzed thoroughly in the literature. However, not much seems to be known when transitivity is weakened to quasi-transitivity or acyclicity. We describe the logical relationships between the different notions of rationalizability involving, for example, the transitivity, quasi-transitivity, or acyclicity of the rationalizing relation. Furthermore, we discuss sufficient conditions and necessary conditions for rational choice on arbitrary domains. Transitive, quasi-transitive, and acyclical rationalizability are fully characterized for domains that contain all singletons and all two-element subsets of the universal set.

Social Norms and Rationality of Choice

Ever since Sen (1993) criticized the notion of internal consistency of choice, there exists a wide spread perception that the standard rationalizability approach to the theory of choice has difficulties coping with the existence of external social norms. This paper introduces a concept of norm-conditional rationalizability and shows that external social norms can be accommodated so as to be compatible with norm-conditional rationalizability by means of suitably modified revealed preference axioms in the theory of rational choice on general domains à la Richter (1966;1971) and Hansson (1968)

Non-Deteriorating Choice without Full Transitivity

Although the theory of greatest-element rationalizability and maximal-element rationalizability under general domains and without full transitivity of rationalizing relations is well-developed in the literature, these standard notions of rational choice are often considered to be too demanding. An alternative definition of rationality of choice is that of non-deteriorating choice, which requires that the chosen alternatives must be judged at least as good as a reference alternative. In game theory, this definition is well-known under the name of individual rationality when the reference alternative is construed to be the status quo. This alternative form of rationality of individual and social choice is characterized in this paper on general domains and without full transitivity of rationalizing relations.

Revealed Preference and Choice under Uncertainty

We employ the theory of rational choice to examine whether observable choices from feasible sets of prospects can be generated by the optimization of some underlying decision criterion under uncertainty. Rather than focusing on a specific theory of choice, our objective is to formulate a general approach that is designed to cover the various decision criteria that have been proposed in the literature. We use a mild dominance property to define a class of suitable choice criteria. In addition to rationalizability per se, we characterize transitive and Suzumura consistent rationalizability in the presence of dominance.

Achieving better stewardship of major infrastructure assets through configuration of governance arrangements utilising Stewardship Theory

Major infrastructure assets are often governed by a mix of public and private organizations, each fulfilling a specific and separate role i.e. policy, ownership, operation or maintenance. This mix of entities is a legacy of Public Choice Theory influenced NPM reforms of the late 20th century. The privatization of the public sector has resulted in agency theory based ‘self-interest’ relationships and governance arrangements for major infrastructure assets which emphasize economic efficiency but which do not do not advance non-economic public values and the collective Public Interest. The community is now requiring that governments fulfill their stewardship role of also satisfying non-economic public values such as sustainability and intergenerational responsibility. In the 21st century governance arrangements which minimize individual self-interest alone and look to also pursue the interests of other stakeholders have emerged. Relational contracts, Public-Private Partnerships (PPP’s) and hybrid mixes of organizations from the state, market and network modes (Keast et al 2006) provide options for governance which better meet the interests of contractors, government and the community there is emerging a body of research which extends the consideration of the immediate governance configuration to the metagovernance environment constituted by hierarchy, regulation, industry standards, trust, culture and values. Stewardship theory has reemerged as a valuable aid in the understanding of the features of governance configurations which establish relationships between principal and agent which maximize the agent acting in the interests of the principal, even to the detriment of the agent. This body of literature suggests that an improved stewardship outcome from infrastructure governance configurations can be achieved by the application of the emerging options as to the immediate governance configuration, and the surrounding metagovernance environment. Stewardship theory provides a framework for the design of the relationships within that total governance environment, focusing on the achievement of a better, complete stewardship outcome. This paper explores the directions future research might take in seeking to improve the understanding of the design of the governance of major, critical infrastructure assets.

Do warnings deter rather than produce more sophisticated malingering?

Following Youngjohn, Lees-Haley, and Binder's (1999) comment on Johnson and Lesniak-Karpiak's (1997) study that warnings lead to more subtle malingering, researchers have sought to better understand warning effects. However, such studies have been largely atheoretical and may have confounded warning and coaching. This study examined the effect on malingering of a warning that was based on criminological-sociological concepts derived from the rational choice model of deterrence theory. A total of 78 participants were randomly assigned to a control group, an unwarned simulator group, or one of two warned simulator groups. The warning groups comprised low- and high-level conditions depending on warning intensity. Simulator participants received no coaching about how to fake tests. Outcome variables were scores derived from the Test of Memory Malingering and Wechsler Memory Scale-III. When the rate of malingering was compared across the four groups, a high-level warning effect was found such that warned participants were significantly less likely to exaggerate than unwarned simulators. In an exploratory follow-up analysis, the warned groups were divided into those who reported malingering and those who did not report malingering, and the performance of these groups was compared to that of unwarned simulators and controls. Using this approach, results showed that participants who were deterred from malingering by warning performed no worse than controls. However, on a small number of tests, self-reported malingerers in the low-level warning group appeared less impaired than unwarned simulators. This pattern was not observed in the high-level warning condition. Although cautious interpretation of findings is necessitated by the exploratory nature of some analyses, overall results suggest that using a carefully designed warning may be useful for reducing the rate of malingering. The combination of some noteworthy effect sizes, despite low power and the small size of some groups, suggests that further investigation of the effects of warnings needs to continue to determine their effect more fully.

Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

A demanda por deuses: religião, globalização e culturas locais

Nesta tese serão discutidas as principais interseções entre a expansão do pentecostalismo protestante e as culturas locais que são alvo de sua ação evangelizadora. Mais especificamente, pretendemos demonstrar, a partir de estudos realizados em algumas regiões do estado de Minas Gerais e Norte de Portugal, de que forma certas conformações culturais mostram-se extremamente refratárias à implantação e limitam o crescimento das igrejas pentecostais. Nesse sentido, procuramos relativizar algumas vertentes teóricas que têm sido chamadas de paradigma da escolha racional em religião, que em um salto para fora da teoria sociológica de entendimento da religião busca na Economia seus principais fundamentos. De forma diversa, nesta tese defender-se-á que processos histórico-estruturais influenciam a demanda por religião e que a produção e principalmente o consumo dos bens religiosos estão imersos nas relações sociais face-a-face. Desta maneira, não acreditamos serem as regulações estatais a principal variável quando se trata de diversidade religiosa. Outros sim, pensamos que este papel cabe às relações societais, que limitam e regulam o trânsito dos indivíduos entre as denominações religiosas.

Analysis of CFRP strap-strengthened reinforced concrete beams using the modified compression field theory (MCFT)

External, prestressed carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) straps can be used to enhance the shear strength of existing reinforced concrete beams. In order to effectively design a strengthening system, a rational predictive theory is required. The current work investigates the ability of the modified compression field theory (MCFT) to predict the behavior of rectangular strap strengthened beams where the discrete CFRP strap forces are approximated as a uniform vertical stress. An unstrengthened control beam and two strengthened beams were tested to verify the predictions. The experimental results suggest that the MCFT could predict the general response of a strengthened beam with a uniform strap spacing < 0.9d. However, whereas the strengthened beams failed in shear, the MCFT predicted flexural failures. It is proposed that a different compression softening model or the inclusion of a crack width limit is required to reflect the onset of shear failures in the strengthened beams.

Zinstytucjonalizowane sieci współdziałania międzygminnego w Polsce

Podstawowym problemem badawczym rozprawy doktorskiej mgra Bartłomieja Kołsuta jest powstawanie i funkcjonowanie zinstytucjonalizowanych sieci współdziałania międzygminnego w Polsce. W pracy skoncentrowano się na realizacji pięciu najważniejszych celów poznawczych. Dotyczą one: 1. identyfikacji zinstytucjonalizowanych sieci współdziałania międzygminnego w Polsce według stanu na koniec 2014 roku, 2. typologii funkcjonalnej zidentyfikowanych sieci, 3. próby wyjaśnienia przyczyn powstawania sieci w okresie 1990-2014, 4. weryfikacji wybranych czynników usieciowienia gmin, 5. próby oceny przydatności wybranych teorii instytucjonalnych w wyjaśnianiu przyczyn powstawania i funkcjonowania sieci. W rozprawie wykorzystano szereg metod i technik badawczych, m. in. metodę analizy treści, statystyczne miary współzmienności (współczynnik phi Yule’a, iloraz szans, współczynnik korelacji liniowej Pearsona). W procesie identyfikacji sieci przeanalizowano ponad 2,5 tys. dokumentów i opracowań, korzystając przy tym z kilkudziesięciu, różnego rodzaju baz danych. Wyniki przeprowadzonych badań empirycznych pozwoliły także dokonać oceny przydatności teorii instytucjonalnych (m. in. instytucjonalizmu wyboru racjonalnego, instytucjonalizmu socjologicznego oraz instytucjonalizmu historycznego) w wyjaśnianiu przyczyn powstawania i funkcjonowania sieci. Zrealizowana rozprawa jest pierwszym tak kompleksowym i pogłębionym opracowaniem geograficznego wymiaru zinstytucjonalizowanej współpracy międzygminnej w Polsce.

The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking.

Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making - despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics.

Social Choice: Recent Developments

In the past quarter century, there has been a dramatic shift of focus in social choice theory, with structured sets of alternatives and restricted domains of the sort encountered in economic problems coming to the fore. This article provides an overview of some of the recent contributions to four topics in normative social choice theory in which economic modelling has played a prominent role: Arrovian social choice theory on economic domains, variable-population social choice, strategy-proof social choice, and axiomatic models of resource allocation.

Multi-Profile Intergenerational Social Choice

Ferejohn and Page transplanted a stationarity axiom from Koopmans’ theory of impatience into Arrow’s social choice theory with an infinite horizon and showed that the Arrow axioms and stationarity lead to a dictatorship by the first generation. We prove that the negative implications of their stationarity axiom are more far-reaching: there is no Arrow social welfare function satisfying their stationarity axiom. We propose a more suitable stationarity axiom, and show that an Arrow social welfare function satisfies this modified version if and only if it is a lexicographic dictatorship where the generations are taken into consideration in chronological order.

La faiblesse de volonté : conceptions classiques et dynamiques

La présente thèse expose, analyse et critique les positions classiques et modernes à l’égard de la nature et des causes de la faiblesse de volonté. L’identification du problème par Platon et Aristote a donné lieu à l’explicitation de principes et propositions portant sur la rationalité pratique en général et la motivation en particulier. Une discussion de ces principes et propositions est faite dans la mesure où ils ont conservé une certaine pertinence pour les théories modernes. Ce qui est devenu la conception standard de la stricte akrasie ainsi que son caractère prétendument paradoxal sont mis de l’avant. Nous argumentons qu’une position sceptique à l’égard de la stricte akrasie ne peut pas reposer sur une version ou une autre de la théorie des préférences révélées et montrons qu’une description du processus décisionnel est nécessaire pour attribuer une préférence synthétique ou un meilleur jugement. Nous abordons le débat philosophique qui oppose une conception internaliste du lien entre le meilleur jugement et la décision à une conception externaliste, et soutenons, sur la base de résultats expérimentaux en psychologie cognitive et en neuroscience, que cette dernière conception est plus robuste, bien qu’imparfaite. Ces résultats ne vont pas toutefois à l’encontre de l’hypothèse que les agents sont des maximisateurs dans la satisfaction de leur préférence, laquelle hypothèse continue de justifier une forme de scepticisme à l’égard de la stricte akrasie. Nous exposons, par contre, des arguments solides à l’encontre de cette hypothèse et montrons pourquoi la maximisation n’est pas nécessairement requise pour le choix rationnel et que nous devons, par conséquent, réviser la conception standard de la stricte akrasie. Nous discutons de l’influente théorie de Richard Holton sur la faiblesse de volonté non strictement akratique. Bien que compatible avec une conception non maximisante, sa théorie réduit trop les épisodes de faiblesse de volonté à des cas d’irrésolution. Nous exposons finalement la théorie du choix intertemporel. Cette théorie est plus puissante parce qu’elle décrit et explique, à partir d’un même schème conceptuel, autant la stricte akrasie que l’akrasie tout court. Ce schème concerne les propriétés des distributions temporelles des conséquences des décisions akratiques et les attitudes prospectives qui motivent les agents à les prendre. La structure de ces distributions, couplée à la dévaluation à l’égard du futur, permet également d’expliquer de manière simple et élégante pourquoi la faiblesse de volonté est irrationnelle. Nous discutons de l’hypothèse qu’une préférence temporelle pure est à la source d’une telle dévaluation et mentionnons quelques éléments critiques et hypothèses concurrentes plus conformes à une approche cognitiviste du problème.