Epidemiological Models of Directly Transmitted Diseases: An Approach via Fuzzy Sets Theory

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Digit systems over commutative rings

Let epsilon be a commutative ring with identity and P is an element of epsilon[x] be a polynomial. In the present paper we consider digit representations in the residue class ring epsilon[x]/(P). In particular, we are interested in the question whether each A is an element of epsilon[x]/(P) can be represented modulo P in the form e(0)+ e(1)x + ... + e(h)x(h), where the e(i) is an element of epsilon[x]/(P) are taken from a fixed finite set of digits. This general concept generalizes both canonical number systems and digit systems over finite fields. Due to the fact that we do not assume that 0 is an element of the digit set and that P need not be monic, several new phenomena occur in this context.

Die Beziehung zwischen genetischem Polymorphismus von Populationen und Umweltvariabilität: Anwendung der Fitness-Set Theorie

Die Beziehung zwischen genetischem Polymorphismus von Populationen und Umweltvariabilität: Anwendung der Fitness-Set Theorie Das Quantitative Fitness-Set Modell (QFM) ist eine Erweiterung der Fitness-Set Theorie. Das QFM kann Abstufungen zwischen grob- und feinkörnigen regelmäßigen Schwankungen zweier Umwelten darstellen. Umwelt- und artspezifische Parameter, sowie die bewirkte Körnigkeit, sind quantifizierbar. Experimentelle Daten lassen sich analysieren und das QFM erweist sich in großen Populationen als sehr genau, was durch den diskreten Parameterraum unterstützt wird. Kleine Populationen und/oder hohe genetische Diversität führen zu Schätzungsungenauigkeiten, die auch in natürlichen Populationen zu erwarten sind. Ein populationsgrößenabhängiger Unschärfewert erweitert die Punktschätzung eines Parametersatzes zur Intervallschätzung. Diese Intervalle wirken in finiten Populationen als Fitnessbänder. Daraus ergibt sich die Hypothese, dass bei Arten, die in dichten kontinuierlichen Fitnessbändern leben, Generalisten und in diskreten Fitnessbändern Spezialisten evolvieren.Asynchrone Reproduktionsstrategien führen zur Bewahrung genetischer Diversität. Aus dem Wechsel von grobkörniger zu feinkörniger Umweltvariation ergibt sich eine Bevorzugung der spezialisierten Genotypen. Aus diesem Angriffspunkt für disruptive Selektion lässt sich die Hypothese Artbildung in Übergangsszenarien von grobkörniger zu feinkörniger Umweltvariation formulieren. Im umgekehrten Fall ist Diversitätsverlust und stabilisierende Selektion zu erwarten Dies ist somit eine prozessorientierte Erklärung für den Artenreichtum der (feinkörnigen) Tropen im Vergleich zu den artenärmeren, jahreszeitlichen Schwankungen unterworfenen (grobkörnigen) temperaten Zonen.

Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

Quantifying uncertainty on Pareto fronts with Gaussian process conditional simulations

Multi-objective optimization algorithms aim at finding Pareto-optimal solutions. Recovering Pareto fronts or Pareto sets from a limited number of function evaluations are challenging problems. A popular approach in the case of expensive-to-evaluate functions is to appeal to metamodels. Kriging has been shown efficient as a base for sequential multi-objective optimization, notably through infill sampling criteria balancing exploitation and exploration such as the Expected Hypervolume Improvement. Here we consider Kriging metamodels not only for selecting new points, but as a tool for estimating the whole Pareto front and quantifying how much uncertainty remains on it at any stage of Kriging-based multi-objective optimization algorithms. Our approach relies on the Gaussian process interpretation of Kriging, and bases upon conditional simulations. Using concepts from random set theory, we propose to adapt the Vorob’ev expectation and deviation to capture the variability of the set of non-dominated points. Numerical experiments illustrate the potential of the proposed workflow, and it is shown on examples how Gaussian process simulations and the estimated Vorob’ev deviation can be used to monitor the ability of Kriging-based multi-objective optimization algorithms to accurately learn the Pareto front.

Finite Characterizations and Paretian Preferences

A characterization of a property of binary relations is of finite type if it is stated in terms of ordered T-tuples of alternatives for some positive integer T. A characterization of finite type can be used to determine in polynomial time whether a binary relation over a finite set has the property characterized. Unfortunately, Pareto representability in R2 has no characterization of finite type (Knoblauch, 2002). This result is generalized below Rl, l larger than 2. The method of proof is applied to other properties of binary relations.

Negative ternary set-sharing

The Set-Sharing domain has been widely used to infer at compiletime interesting properties of logic programs such as occurs-check reduction, automatic parallelization, and flnite-tree analysis. However, performing abstract uniflcation in this domain requires a closure operation that increases the number of sharing groups exponentially. Much attention has been given to mitigating this key inefflciency in this otherwise very useful domain. In this paper we present a novel approach to Set-Sharing: we define a new representation that leverages the complement (or negative) sharing relationships of the original sharing set, without loss of accuracy. Intuitively, given an abstract state sh\> over the finite set of variables of interest V, its negative representation is p(V) \ shy. Using this encoding during analysis dramatically reduces the number of elements that need to be represented in the abstract states and during abstract uniflcation as the cardinality of the original set grows toward 2 . To further compress the number of elements, we express the set-sharing relationships through a set of ternary strings that compacts the representation by eliminating redundancies among the sharing sets. Our experiments show that our approach can compress the number of relationships, reducing signiflcantly the memory usage and running time of all abstract operations, including abstract uniflcation.

Evaluación de parámetros que influyen en el transporte de cloruros en hormigón parcialmente saturado

El deterioro del hormigón debido a la presencia del ion cloruro es causa frecuente de problemas en estructuras localizadas en ambiente marino y alta montaña. Su principal efecto consiste en la despasivación del acero de refuerzo embebido en el hormigón y su consecuente inicio de la corrosión del mismo. El ingreso del ion cloruro al interior del hormigón, está condicionado por una serie de parámetros de origen medioambiental e intrínsecos del hormigón. En función de estos parámetros el ingreso de cloruros en el hormigón puede deberse principalmente a los siguientes mecanismos: difusión y succión capilar. El estudio y evaluación de la resistencia del hormigón frente a cloruros, se ha desarrollado principalmente en condiciones saturadas del hormigón. Lo que ha significado que parámetros de importancia no sean considerados. Debido a esto, distintos procesos que suceden en estructuras reales no han sido identificados y estudiados correctamente. En este trabajo, se diseñó un programa de investigación para evaluar los parámetros que influyen en el transporte cloruros en hormigones no saturados. Para esto se diseñaron tres dosificaciones diferentes de hormigón. En la primera se empleó únicamente cemento portland, para el resto se utilizaron adiciones minerales (humo de sílice y escoria de alto horno). El empleo de adiciones se debió a que tienen un papel importante en la durabilidad de hormigones frente a cloruros. Los hormigones fueron dosificados con una relación agua/material cementício de 0,40 para el hormigón elaborado únicamente con cemento portland y 0,45 para las mezclas con adiciones. Para evaluar las propiedades de los hormigones en estado fresco y endurecido se realizaron ensayos vigentes en las normativas. Con los resultados obtenidos se determinaron parámetros de resistencia mecánica, microestructurales, resistencia al transporte de cloruros e higroscópicos. Una vez caracterizados los hormigones, se diseñó una propuesta experimental para estudiar los principales parámetros presentes en estructuras reales con presencia de cloruros. Tanto la concentración de cloruro como las condiciones ambientales se han variado teniendo como referencia las situaciones reales que podrían producirse en ambientes de alta montaña en la zona centro de España. La propuesta experimental consistió en tratar de evaluar la capacidad de los hormigones al transporte de iones en ambientes de alta montaña con presencia de sales fundentes. Para esto se establecieron 5 fases experimentales donde los principales parámetros ambientales y la presencia de iones agresivos sufrieron variaciones. Al término de cada fase se obtuvieron perfiles de penetración de cloruros en los hormigones y se evaluó la influencia de los parámetros presentes en cada fase. Los resultados experimentales se implementaron en un modelo numérico basado en la teoría de elementos finitos, desarrollado por el grupo de investigación del Departamento de Materiales de Construcción. Para esto fue necesario realizar la calibración y validación del modelo numérico para cada hormigón. El calibrado del modelo precisa de datos químicos y microestructurales de cada hormigón, tales como: capacidad de combinación de cloruros y propiedades difusivas e higroscópicas. Para la validación del modelo numérico se realizaron simulaciones de la propuesta experimental. Los resultados obtenidos se compararon con los valores experimentales. Con el objeto de poder estudiar en mayor profundidad la influencia del grado de saturación del hormigón durante la difusión de cloruros, se llevó a cabo una campaña experimental que consideró distintos grados de saturación en los hormigones. Para esto se establecieron en los hormigones cuatro grados de saturación distintos (50%, 60%, 80% y 100%, aproximadamente), posteriormente se expusieron a cloruro de sodio finamente molido. Una vez transcurrido el tiempo necesario se obtuvieron experimentalmente los perfiles de penetración de cloruros para cada grado de saturación y se calcularon los coeficientes de difusión. Los datos obtenidos durante la campaña experimental han demostrado la influencia positiva que ejercen las adiciones en las mezclas de hormigón. Sus principales ventajas son el refinamiento de la red porosa y el aumento en la capacidad de combinación de cloruros, además de mejorar sus propiedades mecánicas. La porosidad total en las mezclas no presentó grandes cambios, sin embargo, el cambio en la distribución del tamaño de poros es importante en las muestras con adiciones. En especial las fabricadas con humo de sílice. Los coeficientes de difusión y migración de cloruros para las mezclas con adiciones disminuyeron significativamente, igual que los valores de resistividad eléctrica. En los ensayos de penetración del agua bajo presión, fueron las muestras con adiciones las que mostraron las menores penetraciones. Los resultados obtenidos al final de la propuesta experimental permitieron estudiar los distintos parámetros involucrados. Se observó claramente que el proceso de difusión provoca el mayor transporte de cloruros hacia el interior del hormigón. Así mismo se comprobó que el lavado superficial y el secado de las probetas, trasladan cloruros hacia las zonas externas del hormigón. El primero debido a una baja concentración de cloruros externa, mientras que el secado provoca el movimiento de la solución de poro hacia las zonas de secado depositando cloruros en ellas. Las medidas higroscópicas permitieron determinar la existencia de dos zonas distintas en el interior del hormigón. La primera se localizó en el rango de 0-10mm, aproximadamente, en ésta se puso de manifiesto una mayor sensibilidad a los cambios experimentados en el exterior de las probetas. La segunda zona se localizó a una profundidad mayor de 10mm, aproximadamente. Se observó claramente una baja influencia de los cambios externos, siendo la difusión de cloruros el principal mecanismo de transporte presente en ella. En cuanto al estudio de la influencia del grado de saturación en la difusión de cloruros, se observó claramente una marcada diferencia entre los coeficientes de difusión de cloruro obtenidos. Para grados de saturación mayores del 80% el mecanismo de penetración de cloruros por difusión existe de forma significativa. Mientras que para valores inferiores los resultados revelaron que las vías de acceso disminuyen (poros conectado con agua) considerablemente limitando en un alto grado la penetración del agresivo. Para grados de saturación inferiores del 50% los valores del coeficiente de difusión son despreciables. The deterioration of concrete due to chloride ions is a frequent problem identified in structures located in marine and high-mountain environments. After entering the outer layer of the concrete, the chlorides tend to penetrate until they reach and then depassivate the steel bars. Subsequently, this induces the deterioration process of the reinforced concrete. This chloride penetration depends on the environmental conditions and intrinsic parameters of the concrete. Several transport mechanisms, such as diffusion, capillary suction and permeability can be present into the concrete. While recent research into the study and evaluation of concretes with chloride presence has been carried out in saturated concrete, it has not considered certain parameters that can modify this condition. Consequently, at the time of writing several processes that take place in real structures have not been identified and studied. In this work a research programme is designed to evaluate the parameters that influence chloride transport into non-saturated concrete. For this, three concrete mixes were designed by using high-early-strength Portland cement and mineral admixtures (silica fume and blast-slag furnace). The water-cement ratio was 0.40 for the concrete made solely with Portland cement and 0.45 for the concretes that used mineral admixtures as a cement replacement. A set of experimental tests were performed to evaluate the concrete properties both in fresh and hardened state. In addition, an experimental simulation was carried out under laboratory conditions in which the main objective was to assess resistance of concrete to chloride penetration under high-mountain conditions with the presence of de-icing salts. The environmental conditions and surface chloride concentration of the concrete used during the experimental simulation were chosen by considering conditions found in the high-mountain environment in central Spain. For the experimental simulation five phases were designed by varying the environmental parameters and concrete surface concentration. At the end of each phase a chloride profile was obtained with the aim of assessing the influence of the parameters on chloride transport. The experimental results were then used to calibrate and validate a numerical model based on finite element theory developed by the research team from the Construction Materials Department in a previous work. In order to carry out model calibration chemical and microstructural data for the concretes was required, such as binding capacity and the diffusive and hygroscopic properties. The experimental results were compared with the numerical simulations and provided a good fit. With the objective of studying the influence of the degree of concrete saturation on chloride diffusion, an experimental programme was designed. This entailed four saturation degrees (50%, 60%, 80% and 100%) being established in several concrete samples. The samples were then exposed to ground sodium chloride. Once the time required was achieved, the chloride profiles and diffusion coefficients were obtained for each saturation degree. The results obtained from the experimental program revealed a positive influence of the mineral admixtures on the concretes. Their effects were reflected in the pore-network refinement and the increase of chloride binding capacity, together with the improvement of the mechanical properties of the concretes. Total porosity did not reveal any notable change, though the pore-size distribution showed a significant degree of change in the concretes with mineral admixtures, specifically the samples prepared through use of silica fume. The chloride diffusion and migration coefficient, as well as the electrical resistivity values, decreased significantly in the concretes with admixtures. In the water penetration under pressure test, the concretes with admixtures presented the lowest penetration depth. The results obtained in the experimental simulation allowed study of the main parameters involved during the chloride penetration processes in non-saturated concretes in the presence of chlorides. According to the results, the diffusion process was the transport mechanism that transferred the greatest amount of chlorides into the concrete samples. In addition, a chloride movement toward external zones of the concrete, caused by the washing of concrete surface and the drying processes, was identified. The washing occurred when the concrete surface came into contact with a low-chloride concentration solution which initiated the outward movement of chloride diffusion. The drying processes corresponded to a movement of pore solution launched by water evaporation from the outer layer. Furthermore, hygroscopic measurements made in the concrete allowed two areas with distinct behavioural patterns to be identified. The first one, located in the range of approximately 0-10mm, showed a greater degree of influence regarding the changes of the external conditions. The second, situated at depths greater than 10mm, displayed a low influence of external conditions. The main process in this area was diffusion. Study of the influence of the degree of concrete saturation on chloride diffusion showed a clear difference among the chloride diffusion coefficients obtained. For degrees of concrete saturation higher than 80%, chloride penetration by diffusion tends to be significant. However, in the case of extent of saturation of lower than 80%, the results revealed that the access zone through which chlorides can penetrate decreased considerably. For degrees of concrete saturation lower than 50%, the chloride diffusion coefficients were negligible.

Geometric Study of the Weak Equilibrium in a Weighted Case for a Two-Dimensional Competition Game

In this work, an improvement of the results presented by [1] Abellanas et al. (Weak Equilibrium in a Spatial Model. International Journal of Game Theory, 40(3), 449-459) is discussed. Concretely, this paper investigates an abstract game of competition between two players that want to earn the maximum number of points from a finite set of points in the plane. It is assumed that the distribution of these points is not uniform, so an appropriate weight to each position is assigned. A definition of equilibrium which is weaker than the classical one is included in order to avoid the uniqueness of the equilibrium position typical of the Nash equilibrium in these kinds of games. The existence of this approximated equilibrium in the game is analyzed by means of computational geometry techniques.

Hyperplane arrangements, interval orders, and trees.

A hyperplane arrangement is a finite set of hyperplanes in a real affine space. An especially important arrangement is the braid arrangement, which is the set of all hyperplanes xi - xj = 1, 1 theory of interval orders and with the enumeration of trees. For instance, the number of labeled interval orders that can be obtained from n intervals I1,..., In of generic lengths is counted. There is also discussed an arrangement due to N. Linial whose number of regions is the number of alternating (or intransitive) trees, as defined by Gelfand, Graev, and Postnikov [Gelfand, I. M., Graev, M. I., and Postnikov, A. (1995), preprint]. Finally, a refinement is given, related to counting labeled trees by number of inversions, of a result of Shi [Shi, J.-Y. (1986), Lecture Notes in Mathematics, no. 1179, Springer-Verlag] that a certain deformation of the braid arrangement has (n + 1)n-1 regions.

Algorithm for the detection of outliers based on the theory of rough sets

Outliers are objects that show abnormal behavior with respect to their context or that have unexpected values in some of their parameters. In decision-making processes, information quality is of the utmost importance. In specific applications, an outlying data element may represent an important deviation in a production process or a damaged sensor. Therefore, the ability to detect these elements could make the difference between making a correct and an incorrect decision. This task is complicated by the large sizes of typical databases. Due to their importance in search processes in large volumes of data, researchers pay special attention to the development of efficient outlier detection techniques. This article presents a computationally efficient algorithm for the detection of outliers in large volumes of information. This proposal is based on an extension of the mathematical framework upon which the basic theory of detection of outliers, founded on Rough Set Theory, has been constructed. From this starting point, current problems are analyzed; a detection method is proposed, along with a computational algorithm that allows the performance of outlier detection tasks with an almost-linear complexity. To illustrate its viability, the results of the application of the outlier-detection algorithm to the concrete example of a large database are presented.

Contributions to the founding of the theory of transfinite numbers.

Mode of access: Internet.

3-Homogeneous latin trades

Let T be a partial latin square and L be a latin square with T subset of L. We say that T is a latin trade if there exists a partial latin square T' with T' boolean AND T = theta such that (LT) U T' is a latin square. A k-homogeneous latin trade is one which intersects each row, each column and each entry either 0 or k times. In this paper, we construct 3-homogeneous latin trades from hexagonal packings of the plane with circles. We show that 3-homogeneous latin trades of size 3 m exist for each m >= 3. This paper discusses existence results for latin trades and provides a glueing construction which is subsequently used to construct all latin trades of finite order greater than three. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the Quality of Decision Functions in Pattern Recognition

The problem of decision functions quality in pattern recognition is considered. An overview of the approaches to the solution of this problem is given. Within the Bayesian framework, we suggest an approach based on the Bayesian interval estimates of quality on a finite set of events.