A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.

Quantifying errors due to frequency changes and target location uncertainty for radar refractivity retrievals

Radar refractivity retrievals can capture near-surface humidity changes, but noisy phase changes of the ground clutter returns limit the accuracy for both klystron- and magnetron-based systems. Observations with a C-band (5.6 cm) magnetron weather radar indicate that the correction for phase changes introduced by local oscillator frequency changes leads to refractivity errors no larger than 0.25 N units: equivalent to a relative humidity change of only 0.25% at 20°C. Requested stable local oscillator (STALO) frequency changes were accurate to 0.002 ppm based on laboratory measurements. More serious are the random phase change errors introduced when targets are not at the range-gate center and there are changes in the transmitter frequency (ΔfTx) or the refractivity (ΔN). Observations at C band with a 2-μs pulse show an additional 66° of phase change noise for a ΔfTx of 190 kHz (34 ppm); this allows the effect due to ΔN to be predicted. Even at S band with klystron transmitters, significant phase change noise should occur when a large ΔN develops relative to the reference period [e.g., ~55° when ΔN = 60 for the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radars]. At shorter wavelengths (e.g., C and X band) and with magnetron transmitters in particular, refractivity retrievals relative to an earlier reference period are even more difficult, and operational retrievals may be restricted to changes over shorter (e.g., hourly) periods of time. Target location errors can be reduced by using a shorter pulse or identified by a new technique making alternate measurements at two closely spaced frequencies, which could even be achieved with a dual–pulse repetition frequency (PRF) operation of a magnetron transmitter.

Prevalence of Refractive Errors in a Brazilian Population: The Botucatu Eye Study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Refractive errors in a Brazilian population: age and sex distribution

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Prediction with measurement errors in finite populations

We address the problem of selecting the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) of the latent value (e.g., serum glucose fasting level) of sample subjects with heteroskedastic measurement errors. Using a simple example, we compare the usual mixed model BLUP to a similar predictor based on a mixed model framed in a finite population (FPMM) setup with two sources of variability, the first of which corresponds to simple random sampling and the second, to heteroskedastic measurement errors. Under this last approach, we show that when measurement errors are subject-specific, the BLUP shrinkage constants are based on a pooled measurement error variance as opposed to the individual ones generally considered for the usual mixed model BLUP. In contrast, when the heteroskedastic measurement errors are measurement condition-specific, the FPMM BLUP involves different shrinkage constants. We also show that in this setup, when measurement errors are subject-specific, the usual mixed model predictor is biased but has a smaller mean squared error than the FPMM BLUP which points to some difficulties in the interpretation of such predictors. (C) 2011 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis for Errors in Variables with Changepoint Models

Changepoint regression models have originally been developed in connection with applications in quality control, where a change from the in-control to the out-of-control state has to be detected based on the avaliable random observations. Up to now various changepoint models have been suggested for differents applications like reliability, econometrics or medicine. In many practical situations the covariate cannot be measured precisely and an alternative model are the errors in variable regression models. In this paper we study the regression model with errors in variables with changepoint from a Bayesian approach. From the simulation study we found that the proposed procedure produces estimates suitable for the changepoint and all other model parameters.

Cholesky Residuals for Assessing Normal Errors in a Linear Model with Correlated Outcomes: Technical Report

Despite the widespread popularity of linear models for correlated outcomes (e.g. linear mixed models and time series models), distribution diagnostic methodology remains relatively underdeveloped in this context. In this paper we present an easy-to-implement approach that lends itself to graphical displays of model fit. Our approach involves multiplying the estimated margional residual vector by the Cholesky decomposition of the inverse of the estimated margional variance matrix. The resulting "rotated" residuals are used to construct an empirical cumulative distribution function and pointwise standard errors. The theoretical framework, including conditions and asymptotic properties, involves technical details that are motivated by Lange and Ryan (1989), Pierce (1982), and Randles (1982). Our method appears to work well in a variety of circumstances, including models having independent units of sampling (clustered data) and models for which all observations are correlated (e.g., a single time series). Our methods can produce satisfactory results even for models that do not satisfy all of the technical conditions stated in our theory.

Mechanisms of perceptual learning of depth discrimination in random dot stereograms.

Perceptual learning is a training induced improvement in performance. Mechanisms underlying the perceptual learning of depth discrimination in dynamic random dot stereograms were examined by assessing stereothresholds as a function of decorrelation. The inflection point of the decorrelation function was defined as the level of decorrelation corresponding to 1.4 times the threshold when decorrelation is 0%. In general, stereothresholds increased with increasing decorrelation. Following training, stereothresholds and standard errors of measurement decreased systematically for all tested decorrelation values. Post training decorrelation functions were reduced by a multiplicative constant (approximately 5), exhibiting changes in stereothresholds without changes in the inflection points. Disparity energy model simulations indicate that a post-training reduction in neuronal noise can sufficiently account for the perceptual learning effects. In two subjects, learning effects were retained over a period of six months, which may have application for training stereo deficient subjects.

Analysing Conjoint Analysis Data by a Random Coefficient Regression Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62J12, 62K15, 91B42, 62H99.

Diffraction by random Ronchi gratings

In this work, we obtain analytical expressions for the near-and far-field diffraction of random Ronchi diffraction gratings where the slits of the grating are randomly displaced around their periodical positions. We theoretically show that the effect of randomness in the position of the slits of the grating produces a decrease of the contrast and even disappearance of the self-images for high randomness level at the near field. On the other hand, it cancels high-order harmonics in far field, resulting in only a few central diffraction orders. Numerical simulations by means of the Rayleigh–Sommerfeld diffraction formula are performed in order to corroborate the analytical results. These results are of interest for industrial and technological applications where manufacture errors need to be considered.

Biased Random-key Genetic Algorithms For The Winner Determination Problem In Combinatorial Auctions.

Abstract In this paper, we address the problem of picking a subset of bids in a general combinatorial auction so as to maximize the overall profit using the first-price model. This winner determination problem assumes that a single bidding round is held to determine both the winners and prices to be paid. We introduce six variants of biased random-key genetic algorithms for this problem. Three of them use a novel initialization technique that makes use of solutions of intermediate linear programming relaxations of an exact mixed integer-linear programming model as initial chromosomes of the population. An experimental evaluation compares the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms with the standard mixed linear integer programming formulation, a specialized exact algorithm, and the best-performing heuristics proposed for this problem. The proposed algorithms are competitive and offer strong results, mainly for large-scale auctions.

Conseqüências da análise incorreta de experimentos blocados

Errors are always present in experimental measurements so, it is important to identify them and understand how they affect the results of experiments. Statistics suggest that the execution of experiments should follow random order, but unfortunately the complete randomization of experiments is not always viable for practical reasons. One possible simplification is blocked experiments within which the levels of certain factors are maintained fixed while the levels of others are randomized. However this has a cost. Although the experimental part is simplified, the statistical analysis becomes more complex.

Prevalence of refractive errors and ocular disorders in preschool and school children of Ibiporã - PR, Brazil (1989 to 1996)

Purpose: To establish the prevalence of refractive errors and ocular disorders in preschool and schoolchildren of Ibiporã, Brazil. Methods: A survey of 6 to 12-year-old children from public and private elementary schools was carried out in Ibiporã between 1989 and 1996. Visual acuity measurements were performed by trained teachers using Snellen's chart. Children with visual acuity <0.7 in at least one eye were referred to a complete ophthalmologic examination. Results: 35,936 visual acuity measurements were performed in 13,471 children. 1.966 children (14.59%) were referred to an ophthalmologic examination. Amblyopia was diagnosed in 237 children (1.76%), whereas strabismus was observed in 114 cases (0.84%). Cataract (n=17) (0.12%), chorioretinitis (n=38) (0.28%) and eyelid ptosis (n=6) (0.04%) were also diagnosed. Among the 614 (4.55%) children who were found to have refractive errors, 284 (46.25%) had hyperopia (hyperopia or hyperopic astigmatism), 206 (33.55%) had myopia (myopia or myopic astigmatism) and 124 (20.19%) showed mixed astigmatism. Conclusions: The study determined the local prevalence of amblyopia, refractive errors and eye disorders among preschool and schoolchildren.

Synthesis and structural characterization of block and random low molecular weight copolymers composed of L-lactic acid and isosorbide succinate moieties

Isosorbide succinate moieties were incorporated into poly(L-lactide) (PLLA) backbone in order to obtain a new class of biodegradable polymer with enhanced properties. This paper describes the synthesis and characterization of four types of low molecular weight copolymers. Copolymer I was obtained from monomer mixtures of L-lactide, isosorbide, and succinic anhydride; II from oligo(L-lactide) (PLLA), isosorbide, and succinic anhydride; III from oligo(isosorbide succinate) (PIS) and L-lactide; and IV from transesterification reactions between PLLA and PIS. MALDI-TOFMS and 13C-NMR analyses gave evidence that co-oligomerization was successfully attained in all cases. The data suggested that the product I is a random co-oligomer and the products II-IV are block co-oligomers.

Influence of memory in deterministic walks in random media: Analytical calculation within a mean-field approximation

Consider a random medium consisting of N points randomly distributed so that there is no correlation among the distances separating them. This is the random link model, which is the high dimensionality limit (mean-field approximation) for the Euclidean random point structure. In the random link model, at discrete time steps, a walker moves to the nearest point, which has not been visited in the last mu steps (memory), producing a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (the tourist walk). We have analytically obtained the distribution of the number n of points explored by the walker with memory mu=2, as well as the transient and period joint distribution. This result enables us to explain the abrupt change in the exploratory behavior between the cases mu=1 (memoryless walker, driven by extreme value statistics) and mu=2 (walker with memory, driven by combinatorial statistics). In the mu=1 case, the mean newly visited points in the thermodynamic limit (N >> 1) is just < n >=e=2.72... while in the mu=2 case, the mean number < n > of visited points grows proportionally to N(1/2). Also, this result allows us to establish an equivalence between the random link model with mu=2 and random map (uncorrelated back and forth distances) with mu=0 and the abrupt change between the probabilities for null transient time and subsequent ones.