The euro area's tightrope walk: debt and competitiveness in Italy and Spain. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/11, September 2013

Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro relative price adjustment and debt sustainability is more severe. In our baseline scenario, the projected public debt ratio reduction in Italy and Spain is too slow and does not meet the European fiscal rule. Debt projections are very sensitive to underlying assumptions and even small negative deviations from GDP growth, inflation and budget surplus assumptions can easily result in a runaway debt trajectory. The case for a greater than five percent of GDP primary budget surplus is very weak. Beyond vitally important structural reforms, the top priority is to ensure that euro area inflation does not undershoot the two percent target, which requires national policy actions and more accommodative monetary policy. The latter would weaken the euro exchange rate, thereby facilitating further intra-euro adjustment. More effective policies are needed to foster growth. But if all else fails, the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions could reduce borrowing costs.

Substance of a speech addressed to the House of Commons, on the 28th April 1814 : on the subject of applying the sinking fund towards any loans raised for the public service.

With this is bound Heathfield, R. Further observations on the practicability and expediency of liquidating the public debt of the United Kingdom. 1820.

The public accounts for the financial year.

Description based on: 1929/30.

A comprehensive approach to the euro-area debt crisis

The euro area‘s sovereign debt crisis continues though significant steps have been taken to resolve it. This paper proposes a comprehensive solution to the crisis based on three pillars: a plan to restore banking sector soundness in the whole euro area, a resolution of sovereign debt crisis -including a revision of EU assistance facilities and a reduction of the Greek public debt- and a strategy to foster growth and competitiveness. The paper provides novel estimates and analysis focusing on the current situation of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

The Euro Area's Tightrope Walk: Debt and Competitiveness in Italy and Spain

- Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro relative price adjustment and debt sustainability is more severe. - In our baseline scenario, the projected public debt ratio reduction in Italy and Spain is too slow and does not meet the European fiscal rule. Debt projections are very sensitive to underlying assumptions and even small negative deviations from GDP growth, inflation and budget surplus assumptions can easily result in a runaway debt trajectory. - The case for a greater than five percent of GDP primary budget surplus is very weak. Beyond vitally important structural reforms, the top priority is to ensure that euro-area inflation does not undershoot the two percent target, which requires national policy actions and more accommodative monetary policy. The latter would weaken the euro exchange rate, thereby facilitating further intra-euro adjustment. More effective policies are needed to foster growth. But if all else fails, the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions could reduce borrowing costs.

Debt-growth linkages in EMU across countries and time horizons

This paper contributes to the literature by empirically examining whether the influence of public debt on economic growth differs between the short and the long run and presents different patterns across euro-area countries. To this end, we use annual data from both central and peripheral countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the 1960-2012 period and estimate a growth model augmented for public debt using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our findings tend to support the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EMU countries, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country.

The Choice of Debt Source by UK Firms

Peer reviewed

The Development of Public Finances and Role of Fiscal Constraints in a Monetary Union: Example eurozone

This thesis is about the development of public debt and deficit in the eurozone, which has been in the center of attention for much of the new millennium. The debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios have changed significantly during the period of the European monetary integration, with sharp increases in the levels since the beginning of the financial crisis. We view the levels both before and after the establishment of the European Central Bank. The subject is complemented by a study of the restrictions on fiscal policy in the eurozone. The thesis begins with a review of the most central agreements in the Economic and Monetary Union, namely the Maastricht Treaty, the Stability and Growth Pact and the Fiscal Compact. We study the instructions and requirements provided by these contracts, with the emphasis being on the debt and deficit values. Furthermore, we view two theories that aim to provide us with information, whether the fiscal restrictions are useful or not. The second and empirical part consists of review on the debt and deficit levels in practice. We take a close look on the values for each of the currency union members. The third and last part summarizes the findings, and analyzes the reasons behind the changes. The result of the thesis is, that even though the levels of public debt and deficit have worsened since the beginning of the financial crisis, tight rules on fiscal policy might not be the best possible solution. Private sector has played a crucial part in the increase of the debt levels, and tight rules have their impact on the long awaited economic growth in the eurozone. It is obvious, though, that some form of fiscal guidelines with scientific ground are needed in order to avoid excessive and harmful debt and deficit levels. The main task is to make these guidelines a more essential part of the fiscal policy in each of the member countries.

Queensland's budget austerity and its impact on social welfare : is the cure worse than the disease?

While considerable attention has been paid to the austerity experiments in Europe, much less attention has been paid to austerity case studies from other parts of the world. This paper examines the case of Queensland, Australia, where the government has pursued austerity measures, while making dire warnings that unless public debt was slashed and the public service sector downsized,Queensland risked becoming the Spain of Australia. The comparison is incomprehensible, given the very different economic situation in Queensland compared with Spain. This comparison constructed a sense of crisis that helped to mask standard neoliberal economic reform. While pursuing neoliberal economic policies,the Queensland Government has also been introducing draconian laws that limit civil liberties and political freedoms for ordinary citizens. This mix of authoritarianism and austerity has met considerable resistance, and this dynamic is discussed in the paper, along with the predictable and unequal impact that austerity measures have had on the general population and social services.

Essays on Banking Crises

This thesis aims at finding the role of deposit insurance scheme and central bank (CB) in keeping the banking system safe. The thesis also studies the factors associated with long-lasting banking crises. The first essay analyzes the effect of using explicit deposit insurance scheme (EDIS), instead of using implicit deposit insurance scheme (IDIS), on banking crises. The panel data for the period of 1980-2003 includes all countries for which the data on EDIS or IDIS exist. 70% of the countries in the sample are less developed countries (LDCs). About 55% of the countries adopting EDIS also come from LDCs. The major finding is that the using of EDIS increases the crisis probability at a strong significance level. This probability is greater if the EDIS is inefficiently designed allowing higher scope of moral hazard problem. Specifically, the probability is greater if the EDIS provides higher coverage to deposits and if it is less powerful from the legal point of view. This study also finds that the less developed a country is to handle EDIS, the higher the chance of banking crisis. Once the underdevelopment of an economy handling the EDIS is controlled, the EDIS separately is no longer a significant factor of banking crises. The second essay aims at determining whether a country s powerful CB can lessen the instability of the banking sector by minimizing the likelihood of a banking crisis. The data used include indicators of the CB s autonomy for a set of countries over the period of 1980-89. The study finds that in aggregate a more powerful CB lessens the probability of banking crisis. When the CB s authority is disentangled with respect to its responsibilities, the study finds that the longer tenure of CB s chief executive officer and the greater power of CB in assigning interest rate on government loans are necessary for reducing the probability of banking crisis. The study also finds that the probability of crisis reduces more if an autonomous CB can perform its duties in a country with stronger law and order tradition. The costs of long-lasting banking crises are high because both the depositors and the investors lose confidence in the banking system. For a rapid recovery of a crisis, the government very often undertakes one or more crisis resolution policy (CRP) measures. The third essay examines the CRP and other explanatory variables correlated with the durations of banking crises. The major finding is that the CRP measure allowing the regulation forbearance to keep the insolvent banks operative and the public debt relief program are respectively strongly and weakly significant to increase the durations of crises. Some other explanatory variables, which were found by previous studies to be related with the probability of crises to occur, are also correlated with the durations of crises.

Fiscal imbalances, inflation and sovereign default dynamics

Resumen: La cuestión central que este artículo busca responder es como la política monetaria puede afectar el comportamiento de equilibrio de primas por riesgo soberano y cesación de pagos. El artículo se basa en el modelo de “una-tasa-interés”. La deuda pública se hace riesgosa a causa de una política fiscal activa, como en Uribe (2006), reflejando la habilidad limitada de la autoridad fiscal para controlar el superávit primario. El problema de insolvencia es debido a una oleada de mala suerte (shocks negativos que afectan el superávit primario). Pero en contraste a los resultados de Uribe, a medida que aumenta el costo de la deuda soberana (que resulta de un excedente primario débil), la cesación de pagos se anticipa y es reflejada por una creciente prima de riesgo en el país y una probabilidad de cesación de pagos. La cesación de pagos se define como un incumplimiento de un acuerdo contractual y por ende la decisión es tomada por la autoridad fiscal. Mientras tanto, objetivos conflictivos entre la autoridad monetaria y fiscal juegan un rol importante en llevar a la autoridad fiscal a la cesación de pagos sobre sus pasivos. La característica de la política del gobierno necesaria para restaurar el equilibrio después de la cesación de pagos también es analizada.

O orçamento público federal e a garantia de prioridade absoluta de crianças e adolescentes nas políticas públicas

Essa pesquisa objetiva verificar a garantia de prioridade absoluta de crianças e adolescentes nas políticas públicas do governo federal. Para tanto, resgata o processo de criação dos novos direitos de crianças e adolescentes, que se origina na Assembléia Nacional Constituinte (ANC) 1987-1988, perpassa a discussão da comunidade internacional para a criação da Convenção sobre os Direitos da Criança (CDC) e resulta em uma legislação nacional, o Estatuto da Criança e do Adolescente (ECA), sob a égide da Doutrina da Proteção Integral. Essa legislação reflete os novos direitos de crianças e adolescentes brasileiros como cidadãos e cidadãs, titulares de direitos especiais por sua condição peculiar de desenvolvimento e compõe os critérios de garantia, defesa e promoção de seus direitos humanos. Esse estudo também traz informações sobre a desigualdade social brasileira para inferir que o investimento em políticas públicas para infância e adolescência é um dos mecanismos para promover desenvolvimento sustentável, construir bases para uma sociedade mais justa e igualitária e que, quando aliadas a políticas de transferências de renda, oportunizam condições sólidas para reduzir o grau de desigualdade social, com efetiva melhora da qualidade de vida da população. A prioridade absoluta foi estimada a partir de um método de apuração do Orçamento Criança e Adolescente (OCA) que filtra as políticas orçamentárias voltadas ao público infanto-adolescente, nos termos do ECA, por critérios de exclusividade e direcionamento. Os resultados indicam que, apesar das melhoras recentes em indicadores socioeconômicos e na qualidade de vida da população brasileira, ainda falta um longo caminho para o respeito ao princípio da prioridade absoluta de crianças e adolescentes nas políticas públicas do governo federal, pois os recursos públicos da União estão à mercê do pagamento dos juros, encargos e amortizações da dívida pública. Com isso, as políticas sociais ficam mantidas em segundo plano, e sua arrecadação tem caráter regressivo, baseada em tributos indiretos, no que o financiamento das políticas públicas é feito pela população mais pobre, majoritariamente, justamente a que mais demanda as políticas públicas sociais.

O déficit público brasileiro

A presente dissertação tem por objetivo estudar o déficit público brasileiro. Através da literatura e dos dados pesquisados procurou-se conhecer sua história, composição, magnitude, constituição e principais vulnerabilidades para a economia brasileira. Pesquisaram-se as soluções e estratégias que estão sendo adotadas, não só as econômicas, mas também as legais. Procurou-se responder se estas estratégias poderiam ser aperfeiçoadas e se é possível administrar a dívida pública através de superávits primários que minimizem o impacto sobre o crescimento econômico, fornecendo sugestões.

Análisis de dos economías de la Unión Europea: Alemania y España

CASTELLANO. Alemania, un país muy afectado tras el nazismo y las diferentes guerras en las cuales se vio involucrado, adoptó una Economía Social de Mercado (ESM) en 1948, que le permitió abrir sus puertas hacia la internacionalización, lo cual había estado fuertemente regulado hasta entonces. Esta apertura de fronteras ha favorecido al comercio exterior el cual está muy desarrollado. Además, una moderada inflación, un bajo nivel de deuda pública, alta cualificación de la población, el potente desarrollo industrial manufacturero y su capacidad de recuperación de la crisis económica que estalló en 2007, entre otros, hace de Alemania un país muy próspero. España, tras su recuperación de la época del franquismo la cual había castigado de forma severa a este país, se recuperó hasta niveles superiores a Alemania en cuestión de confianza empresarial. En cambio, en 2007, momento de estallido de crisis, la producción de varios sectores se vio muy reducida (principalmente el sector de la construcción), la tasa de desempleo aumentó de forma descontrolada… Actualmente, este país se encuentra en proceso de recuperación el cual se basa mucho en el turismo y por consiguiente en el sector servicios que año tras año ha ido evolucionando hasta convertirse en uno de los motores de esta economía.

La Hipótesis de Equivalencia Ricardiana: Una Aproximación Empírica

[ES] Este trabajo aporta un análisis econométrico sencillo de la equivalencia ricardiana para los Estados Unidos de América durante el periodo 1929-2013. Se estima una función de consumo para los individuos del país para a continuación contrastar tres diferentes especificaciones del consumo basadas en la teoría keynesiana y en la equivalencia ricardiana. Se obtiene que todas las especificaciones se rechazan, lo que lleva a sugerir que es un término medio entre las dos teorías lo que mejor refleja el efecto que tiene la deuda pública sobre el consumo en los Estados Unidos. Este trabajo también pretende hacer una exposición sencilla de las bases de la equivalencia ricardiana.